Tips for Tikay

[Marky147]

Obv Murray will probably win like 6-1, 6-2 again but let's see!

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Interesting odds here - will write in decimal odds as that's what I usually use

Is Djok suddenly going to arrest his decline his form and be supreme again by the time they get to OZ next year? Is Murray suddenly going to drop off a bit? Why aren't these events priced up about the same between the two of them?

World Tour Finals (next week)
Djok 2.5
Murray 2.38

Aussie open
Djok 2.38
Murray 3.25

To add. Obviously you've got Del Potro and Fed to add into the mix in Australia as well, but why do they take a chunk of our Muzza but Djoko remains similar between the two events (in fact even a bit shorter) - is it just a really bad price for Djoko rather than anything else?

Murray has 15k people cheering him on in London, he is buzzing after being named world number 1 for the first time in his career and gets to sleep in his own bed every night and get driven to the o2 every day after having bfast at home with his missus and kid.  Just three reasons why he is so short next week compared to his Aussie price. 

PS if anyone is going on the Wednesday i will be there for both sessions with my mum so if you are around come and have a drink and say hello to Arb and Mrs Arb senior.  She knows more about tennis than me.

But did you get the Stella genes from Mother Arb? Or has that been developed purely through years of effort by yourself?

Mother Arb more of a middle England/Scotland by genes Daily mail Chablis drinker!  Pretty sure she has never touched a drop of Stella in her life.   I am the black sheep of the family as a punter!

In vino veritas, or stella, as the case may be

[Weetabix]

During Halle Ivo was in a breaker and they brought up his 2016 stats and he had a losing breaker record.  Problem is their return games are so crap they need a miracle once they lose just one point.

That link you put up arb, yes/no breaker, my lads account lasted two weeks when I first started to max them bets 3 or 4 years ago.

[arbboy]

Obv Murray will probably win like 6-1, 6-2 again but let's see!

-----

Interesting odds here - will write in decimal odds as that's what I usually use

Is Djok suddenly going to arrest his decline his form and be supreme again by the time they get to OZ next year? Is Murray suddenly going to drop off a bit? Why aren't these events priced up about the same between the two of them?

World Tour Finals (next week)
Djok 2.5
Murray 2.38

Aussie open
Djok 2.38
Murray 3.25

To add. Obviously you've got Del Potro and Fed to add into the mix in Australia as well, but why do they take a chunk of our Muzza but Djoko remains similar between the two events (in fact even a bit shorter) - is it just a really bad price for Djoko rather than anything else?

Murray has 15k people cheering him on in London, he is buzzing after being named world number 1 for the first time in his career and gets to sleep in his own bed every night and get driven to the o2 every day after having bfast at home with his missus and kid.  Just three reasons why he is so short next week compared to his Aussie price. 

PS if anyone is going on the Wednesday i will be there for both sessions with my mum so if you are around come and have a drink and say hello to Arb and Mrs Arb senior.  She knows more about tennis than me.

But did you get the Stella genes from Mother Arb? Or has that been developed purely through years of effort by yourself?

Mother Arb more of a middle England/Scotland by genes Daily mail Chablis drinker!  Pretty sure she has never touched a drop of Stella in her life.   I am the black sheep of the family as a punter!

In vino veritas, or stella, as the case may be

Being 87.5% Scottish it is very hard not to be a born piss head!  Mother isn't responsible for that side of me though.  Just all the positive points.  The old man is responsible for all the negative areas!

[arbboy]

During Halle Ivo was in a breaker and they brought up his 2016 stats and he had a losing breaker record.  Problem is their return games are so crap they need a miracle once they lose just one point.

That link you put up arb, yes/no breaker, my lads account lasted two weeks when I first started to max them bets 3 or 4 years ago.

My lads accounts for 15 years have lasted 1 or 2 minutes after the first bet generally.  I feel your pain.  They are not called lolbrokes for nothing.

[Weetabix]

Interesting stats Bergeroo, kygrios will continue to keep a high percentage as he can rely on a return game and can stick in a rally unlike isner and the other ball bashing players.

[T_Mar]

Not sure why you'd want to lay more than Betfair on Tepin in the mile at 23.40, but Hills seem to want to.  The betfair price looks too big to me, so no idea why you'd want to go bigger.

I mean I really like Limato, but he is running over the wrong trip and Tepin is a bit of a beast.  Makes no sense.  Guess there is little chance of Tighty or Tikay popping by, but £50 Tepin with Hills at 4/1 seems a good idea. 

Alice Springs for me in this

Any thoughts in the Classic? Looks like good EW if we can get 1/4 odds the place
 

Probably a bit slow as the Tepin 4/1 has gone, but an each way double on that and Arrogate just can't be bad.  Got to be up early in the morning

Arrogate near 2/1 on betfair now.  Place double looking good anyway

Nice, wd 👍

[bergeroo]

Djoko dominates in oz, I think you have to look at djoko and what he has done for the last 3 seasons, this superb run only lost it's legs after he finally captured the French.  It's no coincidence in my view he has struggled since he won it, you don't just lose your game over night.  The only thing he hasn't achieved is the number of slams federer reached (still time but I don't think he will make it), the guy is probably mentally exhausted. It's all down to djoko's hunger in 2017, if he wants to do it all again he probably will and Murray will continue to play 2nd best, the number 1 spot was going to Murray in 2017 anyway if he didn't make it before this week, djoko had too many points to defend and Murray just needed to make semis and finals again to take the top spot.

I don't see federer being in the mix at all Bergeroo, of course he will still knock of the top 4 players but can't see him beating two of them in back to back matches best of 5 now and of course you have nishikori and wawrinka amongst them.   Quite amazing that as good as Murray has been over all these years yet Stan is the one on the same amount of slam wins and one away from a career grand slam.

Fair points, but feels strange to say it, I  think Djoko has a little bit to prove again after the last few months. Maybe he will feel that too and that will provide motivation, as well as of course another slam title that he wants. Just think both players will be resting/training over the winter, working with top coaches, conditioning etc, then I guess one warm up tourney each (didn't check their schedules ) - so prices for the two events should be more similar, how much different can their situations be January in Melbourne from November in London (aside from sleeping in your own bed!)

 Would accept a slight tilt in odds towards Djoko because of past Melbourne form or the fact that he probably needs a break right now more than Murray.

Andy surely also highly motivated to win more slams etc rather than resting on his laurels as number one and SPOTY award(!) - as I'm sure he thinks he has underachieved in slams over the years. I would expect him to be in tip top shape next season.

[Weetabix]

I just saw free money sat there but knew if I had to rely on these kind of gifts I was in the wrong game anyway.

How many years have you been doing the o2 tennis?  Ferrer is probably thankful he isn't playing this year, avoids taking a pasting In every match.

[Doobs]

Not sure why you'd want to lay more than Betfair on Tepin in the mile at 23.40, but Hills seem to want to.  The betfair price looks too big to me, so no idea why you'd want to go bigger.

I mean I really like Limato, but he is running over the wrong trip and Tepin is a bit of a beast.  Makes no sense.  Guess there is little chance of Tighty or Tikay popping by, but £50 Tepin with Hills at 4/1 seems a good idea. 

Alice Springs for me in this

Any thoughts in the Classic? Looks like good EW if we can get 1/4 odds the place
 

Probably a bit slow as the Tepin 4/1 has gone, but an each way double on that and Arrogate just can't be bad.  Got to be up early in the morning

Arrogate near 2/1 on betfair now.  Place double looking good anyway

Nice, wd 👍

Nice end to the day.  Had the e/w in that race and the place double.  So close to the win double too.  When California Chrome went away, did think we were going to be 2nd.

Anyway got to sleep.

[Weetabix]

I would make Murray fav over djoko at the o2 based only on the players mentality at this present time but come oz you just don't know how djoko will turn out when returning to a place he has dominated.  Take your points Bergeroo but the two players are at opposite ends at the minute mentally.    Come
January Stan may make another appearance and the rest will be sent packing again. I think the situations between now and January could be a huge difference, one players head is firmly in the zone which has gained him
Number 1 spot and djoko head is not quite in the zone.  Wouldn't surprise me to see Murray put in some poor displays at the o2, he has achieved what he was after.

[Tal]

Lions v Vikings

Vikes have lost their offensive coordinator but should have too much at home against the abysmal Detroit defense.

No seriously. Detroit's pass defense is atrocious (worse than last year's saints) and particularly against tight ends in the red zone. Kyle Rudolph has had 39% of vikings' targets in the red zone this year, per Number Fire.

Home team. Noisy stadium. Decent favourite.

The bookies have Kyle Rudolph as favourite for first touchdown. However Patrick goes 10/1, which is significantly higher than most.

Fred has £10 with me if he confirms before kick off.

[tikay]

Lions v Vikings

Vikes have lost their offensive coordinator but should have too much at home against the abysmal Detroit defense.

No seriously. Detroit's pass defense is atrocious (worse than last year's saints) and particularly against tight ends in the red zone. Kyle Rudolph has had 39% of vikings' targets in the red zone this year, per Number Fire.

Home team. Noisy stadium. Decent favourite.

The bookies have Kyle Rudolph as favourite for first touchdown. However Patrick goes 10/1, which is significantly higher than most.

Fred has £10 with me if he confirms before kick off.

CONFIRMED.

Thanks Simon.

BET PLACED

[MattyHollis]

Available at 10's in 3 places and 9's in 2 I wouldn't say he's significantly out of line.

Been available at 14/1 all week too.

[Tal]

Available at 10's in 3 places and 9's in 2 I wouldn't say he's significantly out of line.

Been available at 14/1 all week too.

In my defence, I said significantly higher than most. The only other one offering tens is BFSB and good luck. The bookies most people can actually get on with (Marky and I aside) are 8/1.

And £10, which is at the low end of Fred stakes (and, as we know, lower stakes than Fred should be betting)

Poor maths, but I'm not keen on betting early in the week on first touchdown markets. Not unless I am very confident in the week's events. He was 10/1 best when I looked on Thursday afternoon and I'm slightly surprised that hasn't got shorter.

Small stakes interest only. Plus I have an atrocious record with Fred on this market. More chance of Kevin Wimmer being man of the match today

[MattyHollis]

Available at 10's in 3 places and 9's in 2 I wouldn't say he's significantly out of line.

Been available at 14/1 all week too.

In my defence, I said significantly higher than most. The only other one offering tens is BFSB and good luck. The bookies most people can actually get on with (Marky and I aside) are 8/1.

And £10, which is at the low end of Fred stakes (and, as we know, lower stakes than Fred should be betting)

Poor maths, but I'm not keen on betting early in the week on first touchdown markets. Not unless I am very confident in the week's events. He was 10/1 best when I looked on Thursday afternoon and I'm slightly surprised that hasn't got shorter.

Small stakes interest only. Plus I have an atrocious record with Fred on this market. More chance of Kevin Wimmer being man of the match today

Just because you and Marky are the only one that can take 9's doesn't mean he's significantly higher because we just discount those bookies. He's just not at all. He is also 10/1 with Hills as I type - where he had been 14/1 all week.