Tips for Tikay

[Hawk]

Looking at to the US Open,

Lee Janzen was the last winner at The Olympic Club in 1998 with a score of Level par.


Now knowing how the Americans like to set up the courses  (long as possible narrow fairways and greens harder than the M5) I would think that betting on the winning Score to be over par should be home and hosed.................ish

As for the winner Going for Justin Rose each way reasonable form at Wentworth and has won in the states this year so has a chance as long as the putter works

[tikay]

Firstly, apologies to Sicillian for the 'tirade' and I hope he continues to post.  It wasn't my intention for it to come off as it did but I was trying to get across the points Channing did but am nothing like as eloquent.  I think the main point is that this is a really great thread and everyone should be able to take something away from it but only if the bets are analysed and criticised can we all learn.  It is like poker in that you have to get into good habits and the real point of my post, albeit very badly put, was to suggest that buying half points or betting alternative totals is almost never value (the exception is buying off the 7 for ten cents in the NFL) and if you like a side or total just shop around and get the best line rather than messing with alternatives unless you have a really good handle on the value of each half a point.

Very gracious of you, Red. I think your "message" was spot on, & I'm sure Sicilidonk knows that, & will soon return, a little bruised, but wiser & better. He might even tip us ANOTHER NBA Winner.....

Come on sicilian, get yer fat arse back here.

 

[rfgqqabc]

That's the problem with this sort of thread, people with the info rarely give it out, and it takes a rare exception, such as tighty to find an edge. The hardest markets are the footie ones, especially the prem but if you ignore these rid thread dies somewhat.

Posted in euro 2012 thread but I'd like to put Holland up at for an each way bet. I used to work for a pro punter, and he's on them. Backed them myself and putting friends and family on. Same with van persie at 10s not checked if the price is still there! Each way as well

Thanks man, I'll take a look a bit later.

Oir most profitable Market (so far, but irrelevant sample size) is Premiership Football, in fact.

"used to work for a pro punter" as the logic might invoke some interesting comment, too.*

* Ignore that, I'm just having a little fun today, so welcome to the thread.

Incidentally, we are on RVP already as top goalscorer for Holland, but not overall top goalscorer.

We also have a small bet on France to win outright, coupled with Benzema as Top Goalscorer. At 150/1!

Before I place (or not....) that Holland Bet, given that it is not time precious, I'll await some feedback from da boyz.

We will also need to be careful that we don't end up betting against ourself, as we have already had recommends for Spain & France. Not sure how we combat that, but we must.

For your info, here is our current  book, which contains 8 or 9 Euro12 bets, plus we still have a bunch of "recommends" to make decisions upon.

 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=8

Thanks for the tip, & enjoy the thread. I assume you are a serious poker player, right?

Serious yeah, semi pro really. Putting myself through university with poker and looking at a career after.

I know its not really the best logic, but i can't recommend the guy highly enough. I would love to be able to give better reasoning but I simply ran bets and input stats for him to use in his own models. RVP is a strong bet, Mario Gomez the favourite, is rumoured to be unfavoured, and Klose could start, something completely unexpected.

Other bets: Spain/Croatia forecast 4/1
Ireland to qualify 4/1
France/Sweden reverse 6/1
Sweden to qualify 2/1

Not betting against yourself is a massive problem here, with the wide ranging opinions, and I nearly didn't post because of the level of recommendations in the thread, but I guessed i might as well put these up. The forecasts are group finishing places, and definitely worth a shout. Sweden appear vastly underrated, as has been mentioned in this thread, and a small bet e/w @ 66s might be advisable, but I wouldn't know when to lay off correctly, and one reason I'm not as happy recommending. Previous to talking to him, I'd backed Portugal/Russia, but since speaking i have virtually reduced positions on these teams. I like all the team top goal scorers. One thing to be vary of is the overall pricing in the Winner/Top Goalscorer market, its fun for a sweat but probably priced up to the highest margins, because it provides the best sweat. Average punter doesn't care that he can back Holland/RVP @ 25s when they should be 30s etc etc

[tikay]

Many thanks to BadBeat for giving us a good bit of his time this morning, we ought to be able to pick up a few hints there.

Note that we will ALWAYS have some "interest" bets, just bits & bobs (assuming reasonably argued), it keeps the thread ticking over, & we are here to have some fun.

"Maximums" are far & few between - about 4 or 5 last month I think - but I'll do therm if they are well argued, & supported.

Our "bad run" might just be luck, variance, or plum bad selections, I don't know, but we must not delude ourselves, as many in poker do. An acquaintance of mine in poker always tells me that when he wins, it's skill, when he loses, he is "running below expectation". We ain't ever gonna make that mistake, delusion has no place in betting.

Keep ALL the recommends coming, but I'd prefer less of the "I fancy this in the next" if possible. Probably it's me that has to tighten up, be more disciplined, & reject the ones that look dodgy, or poorly justified.

Loving it, long may it last.

[tikay]

That's the problem with this sort of thread, people with the info rarely give it out, and it takes a rare exception, such as tighty to find an edge. The hardest markets are the footie ones, especially the prem but if you ignore these rid thread dies somewhat.

Posted in euro 2012 thread but I'd like to put Holland up at for an each way bet. I used to work for a pro punter, and he's on them. Backed them myself and putting friends and family on. Same with van persie at 10s not checked if the price is still there! Each way as well

Thanks man, I'll take a look a bit later.

Oir most profitable Market (so far, but irrelevant sample size) is Premiership Football, in fact.

"used to work for a pro punter" as the logic might invoke some interesting comment, too.*

* Ignore that, I'm just having a little fun today, so welcome to the thread.

Incidentally, we are on RVP already as top goalscorer for Holland, but not overall top goalscorer.

We also have a small bet on France to win outright, coupled with Benzema as Top Goalscorer. At 150/1!

Before I place (or not....) that Holland Bet, given that it is not time precious, I'll await some feedback from da boyz.

We will also need to be careful that we don't end up betting against ourself, as we have already had recommends for Spain & France. Not sure how we combat that, but we must.

For your info, here is our current  book, which contains 8 or 9 Euro12 bets, plus we still have a bunch of "recommends" to make decisions upon.

 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=8

Thanks for the tip, & enjoy the thread. I assume you are a serious poker player, right?

Serious yeah, semi pro really. Putting myself through university with poker and looking at a career after.

I know its not really the best logic, but i can't recommend the guy highly enough. I would love to be able to give better reasoning but I simply ran bets and input stats for him to use in his own models. RVP is a strong bet, Mario Gomez the favourite, is rumoured to be unfavoured, and Klose could start, something completely unexpected.

Other bets: Spain/Croatia forecast 4/1
Ireland to qualify 4/1
France/Sweden reverse 6/1
Sweden to qualify 2/1

Not betting against yourself is a massive problem here, with the wide ranging opinions, and I nearly didn't post because of the level of recommendations in the thread, but I guessed i might as well put these up. The forecasts are group finishing places, and definitely worth a shout. Sweden appear vastly underrated, as has been mentioned in this thread, and a small bet e/w @ 66s might be advisable, but I wouldn't know when to lay off correctly, and one reason I'm not as happy recommending. Previous to talking to him, I'd backed Portugal/Russia, but since speaking i have virtually reduced positions on these teams. I like all the team top goal scorers. One thing to be vary of is the overall pricing in the Winner/Top Goalscorer market, its fun for a sweat but probably priced up to the highest margins, because it provides the best sweat. Average punter doesn't care that he can back Holland/RVP @ 25s when they should be 30s etc etc

Good Post Sir, thanks.

Yes, "betting against ourself" in Euro12 is something we gotta be careful with. Note we are already on Gomez as top scorer, I think, so if we do any others, our price is plummeting like a plummet.

Will see what reaction your suggestions get, thanks.

[redarmi]

That's the problem with this sort of thread, people with the info rarely give it out, and it takes a rare exception, such as tighty to find an edge. The hardest markets are the footie ones, especially the prem but if you ignore these rid thread dies somewhat.

Posted in euro 2012 thread but I'd like to put Holland up at for an each way bet. I used to work for a pro punter, and he's on them. Backed them myself and putting friends and family on. Same with van persie at 10s not checked if the price is still there! Each way as well

One thing really puts me off about Holland and that is where they have chosen to base themselves.  They are going to have to take 3x1500 mile return flights in eight days which is asking a lot although if they get through they should be well situated after that.  It is also a very tough group.  I think they could be better value after the group stages especially as you will know then that the famous internal strife in that camp hasn't flared up again.

[tikay]

Looking at to the US Open,

Lee Janzen was the last winner at The Olympic Club in 1998 with a score of Level par.


Now knowing how the Americans like to set up the courses  (long as possible narrow fairways and greens harder than the M5) I would think that betting on the winning Score to be over par should be home and hosed.................ish

As for the winner Going for Justin Rose each way reasonable form at Wentworth and has won in the states this year so has a chance as long as the putter works

Thanks Dave, our first US Open recommend, excellent!

We have a few other Golfy types on here, well wised up, so they'll no doubt comment, but personally, I'm liking both bets for a decent sweat. I need to check prices first though, very important that.

EDIT - Justin is currently around 33/1, 40 in places.

Winning Scores are not yet priced up, or not as far as I can see.

[rfgqqabc]

That's the problem with this sort of thread, people with the info rarely give it out, and it takes a rare exception, such as tighty to find an edge. The hardest markets are the footie ones, especially the prem but if you ignore these rid thread dies somewhat.

Posted in euro 2012 thread but I'd like to put Holland up at for an each way bet. I used to work for a pro punter, and he's on them. Backed them myself and putting friends and family on. Same with van persie at 10s not checked if the price is still there! Each way as well

One thing really puts me off about Holland and that is where they have chosen to base themselves.  They are going to have to take 3x1500 mile return flights in eight days which is asking a lot although if they get through they should be well situated after that.  It is also a very tough group.  I think they could be better value after the group stages especially as you will know then that the famous internal strife in that camp hasn't flared up again.

This is the problem with posting a tip from someone else. I'm 100% sure he has factored this in, but can't say much more. Gomez would worry me, he was getting backed in, but went out to 9 the other day but is back to 7 s as of now. The best indicator of true price imo is betfair, which makes RVP a slight favourite at 19/2 compared to Gomez's 21/2.

Anyone got thoughts on Ibrahamovic for Top Scorer @ 50s? Same price as Andy Carrol, which is clearly wrong, but if we make Sweden (under if 2/1 is a bet) 2/1 to qualify, and presume he scores most of their goals, he probably looks good for a place e/w. This might make Kersakhov a better bet @ 40s. Russia are a much shorter price to qualify and Sporting Index predict them to score 4.5-4.8 goals, compared to Swedens 3.3-3.6. Interestingly Spain are predicted the same number of goals as Germnay, somethign which appears to be a mistake, as Spain have a much easier group, but I can't see a bet there, and aren't really qualified to post anything more than ideas, apart from the boss mans tips.

[the sicilian]

OK
I did do a little bit of a Chompy and flounced out of the thread... but a lot of my annoyance is that I think the thread as a whole is being taken a little out of context..

I was under the impression that foremost it was a bit of fun, with contributions mainly from rank amateurs like myself putting forward tips from various sports that they personally liked backed up with at least some semblance of thought behind them. Added to that the wisdom of some of the pro punters to guide us all and open our eyes to the true mechanics of wagering for money.

I think we seem to be getting away from the fact the amounts we are ( Tikay ) are wagering and the amount of bets being put on. This thread is NOT about making money..as Tikay said that's an offshoot bonus..the main crux is to have some fun and see what interesting, discussable topics pop up...

Now all of a sudden we are talking micro points and what the syndicates are doing etc... you have to realise this thread as a whole we are  Joe public monkey punter with his 50-100 wagers.... we are not players of any sort... if Tikay came along and said  'look guys i got 50 bags and I want to make some serious money lets do this ' then fair enough...instead it was.. ' Camels had a belting idea for a thread I'm willing to put up a couple of grand for random punts from the forum and have some fun '

Neil, Red, camel and others this is what you do and you all know far more than I and the majority on here will ever know.....half the time i have no fucking idea what you lot are on about and I'm sure I'm not alone... laughingly we annoy you because to you we are annoying little children who won't do as they are told and in return we look up at you dumbfounded like said child wondering why dad is shouting at us... be a good parent, cajole us don't scream at us... all good parenting see

I was a bit miffed at Redarmi tbh as he put his point over extremely badly and seemed to be having a pop..it was doubly worse as I'm sure I put it somewhere that I thought Redarmi was one of the few on here who actually knew what he was talking about and I actually respected his comments.... I'm sure he didn't mean to come across like he did and his seen fit to apologise for any unintended offence..... accepted...Cheers Red

As to the bet.... well its well known amongst a fairly wide circle of blondes ( is that a clique ) ooops better not go there .... that we love bantering and popping at each other..some more than others... me and Chompy are fave targets and tbh I love it.. i love taking stick..being underdog and sticking in their eye and popping back...its all like some caveman alpha male tribal thing..and we have a great japes with it....

To the game.... I was rushing a bit didn't put up all my thoughts just some pertinent facts and figures... with NBA first and foremost I love the game..i am one of these silly sods who pay for the NBA TV subscription and sit up to 4-5 am actually watching the games...  I have watched the Spurs and Thunder a lot this season..particularly the Spurs as they are my adopted team..not as fashionable as the Heat, Lakers or Celtics but bloody good team and I seemed to strike some kind of chord with them... watching these two all through the playoffs both teams have gone to another level and the Thunder the last two games and last night have reached dizzying heights on both sides of the ball.... the one game that was an under was a complete anomaly where the Spurs did not re adjust to the changes in the Thunder game plan.... these two are more likely to take off points wise..each possession they are dashing down the court looking to score as quick as possible...the Spurs perimeter shooting is the best in the league..they have a bench of virtual starters..thunders have Durant westbrook et al  and in Harden the best 6th man in the league and a virtual starter on any other team and  a fast growing All Star.

The over 199 bet as stated was nitty for the threads sake..i wanted a win chalked up and was playing super safe..seeing these two go at it..the stakes and the fact that nearly all the star players were playing to and above potential make this games almost certain 200+ games... i had the money line personally went nitty for the thread....

No disrespect but I hated the under 202.5 bet of Neils...

I'm not a big punter..my bets range between £50-£200  a few bigger ones around £750 have been know..tears of joy and despair of equal stature on those... I don't just throw my money at it willy nilly I try my best to win to bet on something I have at least thought about a bit.... I don't know half what I should and TBh im not too fussed..i dont make my money gambling... prob starve if I did... i make plenty in my normal working life which allows me to back my hunches with my own hard earned..if i make a bit of money...cool..if i lose no biggie im well within bankroll city limits... as an aside my last 21 NBA bets I have a 62% win rate which by all accounts is really good...and im still a small loser which just goes to show you A) how difficult the NBA is and B) only the bookies win

[bobby1]

Looking at to the US Open,

Lee Janzen was the last winner at The Olympic Club in 1998 with a score of Level par.


Now knowing how the Americans like to set up the courses  (long as possible narrow fairways and greens harder than the M5) I would think that betting on the winning Score to be over par should be home and hosed.................ish

As for the winner Going for Justin Rose each way reasonable form at Wentworth and has won in the states this year so has a chance as long as the putter works

I'm in hiding after watching Stricker play like a drain for 3 rounds last week( actually I'm on holiday) but I have been doing some work on the US open course wise and I cannot remember seeing a course with a bigger apparent front and back nine bias.  The comments I have found from the superintendent are that it will be set up v fast and firm but it's not a long course tho they were from some weeks ago now so at needs to be checked again.

I would suggest with the  front nine likely to play much harder than the back nine that it prob makes sense not to have a bet until the tee times and draw are made coz it's highly likely that starting on the first you are prob going to be happy to get to the turn in two/three over par.

One other thing is the last four US Opens were played on poa annua grass greens but this year they are a variation of bent grass so they will play fairer thru the day and be easier to putt on but might make recent US Open form worth less than usual.

 

[FUN4FRASER]

"Incidentally, we are on RVP already as top goalscorer for Holland, but not overall top goalscorer "

Tony If this is a reference to our bet...we have RVP to be top Arsenal Goalscorer in the tournament not Top Holland

We have got the value anyway as 4-6 tops now

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/euro-2012/top-arsenal-goalscorer    

Also we also have the value on our Russian Kerzhakov to be top scorer too as there has been a market move

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/euro-2012/russia-euro-2012-specials/top-goalscorer
 

[tikay]

Ahh yes, Fraser is correct, my apologies. So many bets.......

Glad you Posted though, just remembered  I owe you $40 or $48 I think, whoops, will sort tonight.

[FUN4FRASER]

Ahh yes, Fraser is correct, my apologies. So many bets.......

Glad you Posted though, just remembered  I owe you $40 or $48 I think, whoops, will sort tonight.

Dont leave the country   

[tikay]

Bugger. Deano is back.

Thought we'd got rid. Chomps & Co will be pleased, and I may have to change the name of my Euro12 Fantasy Team.

[bobby1]

The tone seems to have turned a little over the last few days, prob shows people care about not settling for a losing run without a bit of analysis, which is  deffo a good thing to do.

I've worked in a team setting markets and also in a team betting markets and without doubt we had a ruck of sorts 3-4 times a week but at the end of the day we all had a chance to air our views and make the process a little slicker. We also had a beer together and a laugh when we had straightened the disagreement out, that's the way it should be but the number one rule was always this. Even if your point or bet or lay proved to be the right thing there can be no gloating or rubbing it in afterwards. Once the bet/market is on/out we get behind it.

There have been plenty of bets on here I didn't fancy that won and I have  no doubt put up ones that others didn't fancy too but let's not forget the first few bets on here were on who would catch the ball in an NFL game and what Madonna had on her head in the ht show. so tho it's admirable that we are taking each others money seriously lets not beat ourselves up for a bad month.