Tips for Tikay

[The Camel]

A couple of things struck my eye re some footy this week Tony.

If Villa v Sunderland was a game taking place in some continental leagues then the draw would be much shorter than it is tonight. A point for both teams puts them 3 and 6 points clear of the team third from bottom. In Italy it would be about 8/11 or 1/5 depending on how str8 it was.

There has to be some value in backing these related matches too. Does anyone spot a flaw in these?

A double on Crystal Palace to beat Millwall 2morrow and Peterboro to beat Palace on Saturday.

A little more related but still worth a bet might be a treble on Millwall to beat Palace 2morrow, Palace to beat Peterboro on Saturday and the draw in the Huddersfield v Barnsley game.( if Palace are beating Peterboro than that game could easily end up a carve up draw late on)

Obv both bets cannot win, could also just wait to see what the result is in the Millwall v Palace game 2morrow and then back any related doubles for Saturday( if Palace win then obv just a single on Peterboro on Saturday might be the call) but the markets will change a bit after the Millwall v Palace game tho. If the game 2morrow ends in a draw then both are losers.


Not really thread bets as such mate unless you did want to throw a small bet at them as dbles and trebs aren't really your thing but these are related contingencies ( I'm  surprised firms have the weekend Palace game out tbh) , the value is multiplied thru each game because if one happens then the odds on the next happening are wrong/shorter.

cheers

Hmmm, you don't think there's a possibility related bets might get voided?

[Dubai]

Any bet that has the same team in, in 2 games, will be voided. They wont void stuff where if A wins v C it means B has to win v D, so A+B double etc

[tikay]

Any bet that has the same team in, in 2 games, will be voided. They wont void stuff where if A wins v C it means B has to win v D, so A+B double etc

So if I read you correctly, Palace appear in both legs of the first double, & two of the three legs of the Treble, & so would be void bets?

[Dubai]

Id void them. Basically the result of the first game directly affects their future odds in the second game so its a related contingency.

Ie normally if team A wins against B, they will be a shorter price after to beat C than before they played B.

Funny thing is he is suggesting the opposite ie backing them to lose after winning, which SHOULD in theory be ok- but still dont think they will like it

[tikay]

Id void them. Basically the result of the first game directly affects their future odds in the second game so its a related contingency.

Ie normally if team A wins against B, they will be a shorter price after to beat C than before they played B.

Funny thing is he is suggesting the opposite ie backing them to lose after winning, which SHOULD in theory be ok- but still dont think they will like it

Gotcha.

To be fair, he did say they were not really "Fred bets".

Anyway, for now, I'm gonna have a small interest in tonight's game as a single.

[tikay]

A couple of things struck my eye re some footy this week Tony.

If Villa v Sunderland was a game taking place in some continental leagues then the draw would be much shorter than it is tonight. A point for both teams puts them 3 and 6 points clear of the team third from bottom. In Italy it would be about 8/11 or 1/5 depending on how str8 it was.

There has to be some value in backing these related matches too. Does anyone spot a flaw in these?

A double on Crystal Palace to beat Millwall 2morrow and Peterboro to beat Palace on Saturday.

A little more related but still worth a bet might be a treble on Millwall to beat Palace 2morrow, Palace to beat Peterboro on Saturday and the draw in the Huddersfield v Barnsley game.( if Palace are beating Peterboro than that game could easily end up a carve up draw late on)

Obv both bets cannot win, could also just wait to see what the result is in the Millwall v Palace game 2morrow and then back any related doubles for Saturday( if Palace win then obv just a single on Peterboro on Saturday might be the call) but the markets will change a bit after the Millwall v Palace game tho. If the game 2morrow ends in a draw then both are losers.


Not really thread bets as such mate unless you did want to throw a small bet at them as dbles and trebs aren't really your thing but these are related contingencies ( I'm  surprised firms have the weekend Palace game out tbh) , the value is multiplied thru each game because if one happens then the odds on the next happening are wrong/shorter.

cheers

Ta Phil.

See the "related bets" jobbie debate.

For now, I've done the draw in tonight's Villa game.

£25 @ 23/10, Wm Hill, Villa v Sunderland, Draw.

ON

29 Apr 2013 - Aston Villa v Sunderland - Match Betting

Draw @ 23/10

Stake : £25.00
Estimated Returns : £82.50Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000403/F

[RedFox]

Did bogey really used to mean par?

Apparently this was different either side of the Atlantic, but in one you had to play against a nominal score set by Mr Bogey, whereas the other had a course score (hence par for the course).

Reinforces my 'golf is a ridiculous game that I nevertheless enjoy watching and occasionally punting on' principle.

Not only did bogey mean par on this side of the pond but we also used to use a smaller golf-ball too, 1.66" in diameter as opposed to the 1.68" used by the yanks.

Both the bigger ball and "par" are now standard.

Re. Billy Horschel: His swing and tempo remind me a lot of Nick Price at his best.

He has the technical potential to become a superstar imo.

http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Vintage-Dunlop-Warwick-Golf-Balls-box-of-1-dozen-still-wrapped-in-red-wrappers-/121003628111?pt=UK_Sports_Memorabilia_ET&hash=item1c2c60d64f

Hmmmmm Ive got a couple of boxes of old dunlop 65's.

They were my Dad's and after he died I kept them but didnt take up the game meself until about 10 years after he passed away.

As I was crap and basically lost on average a ball a hole I bought cheap ones until the time I played in a stapleford competition and thought Id unwrap a new Dunlop 65 and play it.

I think id played a bout three holes and after putting out one of the other players noticed it and kindly informed me I was using a ball that was now illegal to use and I had to disqualify myself in accordance with golf rules and etiquette. I had no idea ball size had changed didnt look much different  

[Chompy]

Best idea to wait until after Palace have played Millwall tomo. Then go with Palace to beat Posh and Barnsley-Udders to draw in a double?

[BigAdz]

Move over Mel Gibson

Plenty of conspiracy theorists here.

[tikay]

Best idea to wait until after Palace have played Millwall tomo. Then go with Palace to beat Posh and Barnsley-Udders to draw in a double?

That would work, yes.

Can the Poshies be relied on to do anything predictable?

[Chompy]

Best idea to wait until after Palace have played Millwall tomo. Then go with Palace to beat Posh and Barnsley-Udders to draw in a double?

That would work, yes.

Can the Poshies be relied on to do anything predictable?

Nope, not ever. I'll be doing it as an emotional cover irrespective of what Palace do tomorrow. Really not looking forward to this weekend.

[Tal]

Probably not one for Fred, but just in case I get accused of being aftertimey...

I'm interested in a particular chess game in Cuba (marathon bet is a joyous beast for no one except me ), where Leinier Dominguez-Perez is playing Dmitry Andreikin in the Capablanca Memorial tournament.

Dominguez is a strong player but can't buy a win at the moment, being the guy who has drawn all seven of his games so far.

A surprise leader is now all but certain to finish above the Cuban and so there's little reason to expect him to go full bore today against a guy in Andreikin who has beaten him twice out of the three classical games (ie normal time control games) they have played (albeit in 2011). Andreikin isn't setting the world alight either, drawing five of his seven in what seems to be a pretty stodgy comp, the leader aside.

The draw is 1.45, which is basically the same as the price of the draw in the other two games and I'd make it nearer 1/3.

Margins are a little tight for Fred tbf, but fun what a little research during a lunch break in Starbucks can offer.

http://www.marathonbet.com/en/betting/Chess/


Edit: will qualify all of this by saying my research has not been so thorough as to suggest I know more than the market/odds setters. That's probably a better reason not to bet on it, perhaps. I'm slowly learning, honest.

Judging by the market movement to 1.35, I shall let Fred know that this game is just starting

[tikay]

Probably not one for Fred, but just in case I get accused of being aftertimey...

I'm interested in a particular chess game in Cuba (marathon bet is a joyous beast for no one except me ), where Leinier Dominguez-Perez is playing Dmitry Andreikin in the Capablanca Memorial tournament.

Dominguez is a strong player but can't buy a win at the moment, being the guy who has drawn all seven of his games so far.

A surprise leader is now all but certain to finish above the Cuban and so there's little reason to expect him to go full bore today against a guy in Andreikin who has beaten him twice out of the three classical games (ie normal time control games) they have played (albeit in 2011). Andreikin isn't setting the world alight either, drawing five of his seven in what seems to be a pretty stodgy comp, the leader aside.

The draw is 1.45, which is basically the same as the price of the draw in the other two games and I'd make it nearer 1/3.

Margins are a little tight for Fred tbf, but fun what a little research during a lunch break in Starbucks can offer.

http://www.marathonbet.com/en/betting/Chess/


Edit: will qualify all of this by saying my research has not been so thorough as to suggest I know more than the market/odds setters. That's probably a better reason not to bet on it, perhaps. I'm slowly learning, honest.

Judging by the market movement to 1.35, I shall let Fred know that this game is just starting

I went on Marathon Bet today but had forgotten my plastic, and so could not Deposit to place that bet. It looks quite a decent site.

[bobby1]

no chance of those bets being voided.

If Palace win 2morrow tho why would we want to bet them on Saturday?

I would bet he rested some of the team at the weekend given they will have played three times ina week and have a play off game next week. A win 2morrow and they are playing Brighton in a play off game next week, only difference would be a win on Saturday could alter the order of the two play off games. That's exactly why the Palace x Peterboro double is good value coz a win 2morrow and Peterboro  might be playing against a weakened team on Saturday

cheers

[adnmdv]

Doubt there'll be much resting going on if Palace win tomorrow as 4th is still an incentive (big advantage being at home 2nd leg as you get the potential ET at home without the normal disadvantage of away goals).