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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13457917 times)
Ironside
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« Reply #106125 on: August 27, 2015, 10:49:05 PM »

CBB burnside (chris elliston) 16-1 on betfair sportsbook looks outstanding value
why?

i am wrong, the exchange has him much bigger for little bits as the market forms

but i think witht he people going in his is going to me a much more likeable character in the jim davidson mode
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Gazza
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« Reply #106126 on: August 27, 2015, 11:09:40 PM »

CBB burnside (chris elliston) 16-1 on betfair sportsbook looks outstanding value
why?

i am wrong, the exchange has him much bigger for little bits as the market forms

but i think witht he people going in his is going to me a much more likeable character in the jim davidson mode


Wait, Jim Davidson is likeable?
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SuperJez
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« Reply #106127 on: August 27, 2015, 11:22:20 PM »

A ton of value in all the "to win their group" champions league betting markets tonight, that's all I am saying.  Well all apart from one imo.
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« Reply #106128 on: August 27, 2015, 11:30:47 PM »

CBB burnside (chris elliston) 16-1 on betfair sportsbook looks outstanding value
why?

i am wrong, the exchange has him much bigger for little bits as the market forms

but i think witht he people going in his is going to me a much more likeable character in the jim davidson mode


Wait, Jim Davidson is likeable?

he won didnt he so must of come across that way
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arbboy
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« Reply #106129 on: August 27, 2015, 11:37:21 PM »

A ton of value in all the "to win their group" champions league betting markets tonight, that's all I am saying.  Well all apart from one imo.

Big difference of opinion in man city group. Red nose bald Fred predictably going too price Man city where as lolbrokes are massively ducked them.
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mulhuzz
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« Reply #106130 on: August 27, 2015, 11:46:36 PM »

Can't have Athletico 9x% to qualify mind. Would defo be opposing anywhere near those espn prices
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swinebag22
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« Reply #106131 on: August 28, 2015, 12:00:09 AM »

note to self

us open serena 10/11 womens

10/1 bar

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/us-open/womens/winner

e/w 1/2 1,2

find the winner of the other half when the draw is made

http://espn.go.com/tennis/bracket?year=2015&type=2&tournamentId=189

Draw is out and no opinions?

Not really a tennis expert, but as tighty states above, the women's draw must have some value in it

Names that stand out for me (all in the other half to Serena) as possible EW bets

Azarenka 9/1 - Improving after a tough 2014 and getting back to her best
Wozniacki 40/1 - US open seems to be her best Slam


In the Mens Draw, I fancy an improved/more focussed Dimitrov to win Quarter 2 at 13/2 but only Jokes have priced this up so far

No reccs here, just asking for opinions
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TightEnd
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« Reply #106132 on: August 28, 2015, 10:59:45 AM »

note to self

us open serena 10/11 womens

10/1 bar

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/us-open/womens/winner

e/w 1/2 1,2

find the winner of the other half when the draw is made

http://espn.go.com/tennis/bracket?year=2015&type=2&tournamentId=189

Draw is out and no opinions?

Not really a tennis expert, but as tighty states above, the women's draw must have some value in it

Names that stand out for me (all in the other half to Serena) as possible EW bets

Azarenka 9/1 - Improving after a tough 2014 and getting back to her best
Wozniacki 40/1 - US open seems to be her best Slam


In the Mens Draw, I fancy an improved/more focussed Dimitrov to win Quarter 2 at 13/2 but only Jokes have priced this up so far

No reccs here, just asking for opinions


thanks Rob

no other thoughts on either draw?

can we not find the winner of the non-serena half?
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tikay
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« Reply #106133 on: August 28, 2015, 11:01:57 AM »

note to self

us open serena 10/11 womens

10/1 bar

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/us-open/womens/winner

e/w 1/2 1,2

find the winner of the other half when the draw is made

http://espn.go.com/tennis/bracket?year=2015&type=2&tournamentId=189

Draw is out and no opinions?

Not really a tennis expert, but as tighty states above, the women's draw must have some value in it

Names that stand out for me (all in the other half to Serena) as possible EW bets

Azarenka 9/1 - Improving after a tough 2014 and getting back to her best
Wozniacki 40/1 - US open seems to be her best Slam


In the Mens Draw, I fancy an improved/more focussed Dimitrov to win Quarter 2 at 13/2 but only Jokes have priced this up so far

No reccs here, just asking for opinions


thanks Rob

no other thoughts on either draw?

can we not find the winner of the non-serena half?

Paging Mere, Paging Mere........
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« Reply #106134 on: August 28, 2015, 11:27:56 AM »

note to self

us open serena 10/11 womens

10/1 bar

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/us-open/womens/winner

e/w 1/2 1,2

find the winner of the other half when the draw is made

http://espn.go.com/tennis/bracket?year=2015&type=2&tournamentId=189

Draw is out and no opinions?

Not really a tennis expert, but as tighty states above, the women's draw must have some value in it

Names that stand out for me (all in the other half to Serena) as possible EW bets

Azarenka 9/1 - Improving after a tough 2014 and getting back to her best
Wozniacki 40/1 - US open seems to be her best Slam


In the Mens Draw, I fancy an improved/more focussed Dimitrov to win Quarter 2 at 13/2 but only Jokes have priced this up so far

No reccs here, just asking for opinions


thanks Rob

no other thoughts on either draw?

can we not find the winner of the non-serena half?

Paging Mere, Paging Mere........

I know nearly nothing too, but you beat Betfair with Safarova at 66/1 with Victor and she is in the right half for an each way.  Clay courter having a good season.  Guess that is all you can hope for at 66/1? 

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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
DungBeetle
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« Reply #106135 on: August 28, 2015, 11:30:41 AM »

As an absolute long shot I'd put up Carolina Garcia at 250-1 in the other half to Serena.

Crept up to 36 in the rankings (so unfortunately unseeded) but in last couple of weeks has beaten Lisicki, Kvitova and Bacsinszky on hard courts.  Of course this is unlikely in the extreme but a 250-1 shot beating seeded players is a positive.  Potentially "big improver" as they say at the races at the age of 21.

Plays Petkovic (seeded) first up where she'll be marginal dog.  Win that and she's in the Kvitova/Muguraza quarter.
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swinebag22
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« Reply #106136 on: August 28, 2015, 11:35:47 AM »

Wozniacki is 40/1 standout with lolbrokes, 33/1 general and lower in quite a few spots

40/1 beats betfair so think we should have a bet here.

Done a bit more Woz research http://www.si.com/swimsuit/2015/models/caroline-wozniacki/photos/8

Seriously though, she hasn't done brilliantly of late but has made the semis in Cincinatti and should get the better of Kvitova there. If she wins there, then I imagine the 40's will go

In the US, she has a decent draw and I think she will win her quarter. The semi will be tough, but hopefully someone can do us a favour and soften the draw up even more for her. I think the US open suits an improving type who has not had too hard a season. Wozzy certainly does that IMO and unless I am missing something, 40s seems crazy.

reccommend £10 EW (but please get a second opinion before placing)

My thinking for Azarenka is also along similar lines but at 9/1 there probably isn't the value
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« Reply #106137 on: August 28, 2015, 12:37:43 PM »

As an absolute long shot I'd put up Carolina Garcia at 250-1 in the other half to Serena.

Crept up to 36 in the rankings (so unfortunately unseeded) but in last couple of weeks has beaten Lisicki, Kvitova and Bacsinszky on hard courts.  Of course this is unlikely in the extreme but a 250-1 shot beating seeded players is a positive.  Potentially "big improver" as they say at the races at the age of 21.

Plays Petkovic (seeded) first up where she'll be marginal dog.  Win that and she's in the Kvitova/Muguraza quarter.

I couldn't see the 250/1, but there is a bit available at 400/410 (I just had £4 at 420) on Betfair which must be a better bet even if you can't get the each way? 

That 66/1 Safarova didn't last long.  Must be the glowing write up I gave here. 

That wozniaki bet looks fine if we can get anything on with Ladbrokes.  I can't kill that price anyway.  38/44 on Betfair, so the to final odds must be shorter than the 20/1 we get.  Don't think you need to worry much more than that.  Not sure azarenka as it is a bit more swings and roundabouts as we lose quite a bit on the win price. Would need a better judge than me to look at it.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
TightEnd
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« Reply #106138 on: August 28, 2015, 12:38:21 PM »

we'll just do a small book in the women's then

all e/w to try and reach the final

plenty of room if mere wants to pipe up....and for the mens too...


wozniacki was limited at the only place we can get 40-1

Single - 2015 US Open - Women's singles

C Wozniacki - Tournament Winner

Odds: 40/1

Each way : 1/2

1 lines at £5.00 per line

Total Stake for this bet: £10.00

Time : 28/8/2015-11:49

Receipt No:O/142640973/0000960


safarova 66/1 e/w had gone

31 Aug 2015 - Women's US Open - Tournament Winner - Tournament Winner

Lucie Safarova @ 50/1  EW @ 1/2 1-2

Stake : £10.00 (£5.00 x 2)
Estimated Returns : £
385.00


Garcia 250/1 is impossible e/w

Caroline Garcia 2015 Womens Winner    412.66    £2.86    
£1,177.34
Partially Matched
Ref: 54553128651M Matched: 11:53 28-Aug-15

there is no liquidity in the win the quarter markets. garcia would qualify as "any other player". i've popped something up to see if it matches
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DungBeetle
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« Reply #106139 on: August 28, 2015, 12:38:53 PM »

As an absolute long shot I'd put up Carolina Garcia at 250-1 in the other half to Serena.

Crept up to 36 in the rankings (so unfortunately unseeded) but in last couple of weeks has beaten Lisicki, Kvitova and Bacsinszky on hard courts.  Of course this is unlikely in the extreme but a 250-1 shot beating seeded players is a positive.  Potentially "big improver" as they say at the races at the age of 21.

Plays Petkovic (seeded) first up where she'll be marginal dog.  Win that and she's in the Kvitova/Muguraza quarter.

I couldn't see the 250/1, but there is a bit available at 400/410 (I just had £4 at 420) on Betfair which must be a better bet even if you can't get the each way? 

That 66/1 Safarova didn't last long.  Must be the glowing write up I gave here. 

That wozniaki bet looks fine if we can get anything on with Ladbrokes.  I can't kill that price anyway.  38/44 on Betfair, so the to final odds must be shorter than the 20/1 we get.  Don't think you need to worry much more than that.  Not sure azarenka as it is a bit more swings and roundabouts as we lose quite a bit on the win price. Would need a better judge than me to look at it.

Yep sorry - didn't check Betfair.
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