Main event hand 1

[stato_1]

UTG+2 is very aggro, seems decent. MP to his immediate left is Matt Salsberg, producer of Entourage, seems semi capable though is playing pretty passively pre flop in the couple of orbits that I've seen. MP2 is French I think, seems tightish and reggy from what I've seen so far.

UTG+2 opens to 250 at 50/100, MP and MP2 peel, I peel from bb with KdQh

Flop
Qc6h5d

Checks to MP2 who bets 600. I call, MP calls.

Turn

I check, MP leads for 1325, MP2 folds, I call.

River

I check, MP bets 4300. Thoughts on all streets especially river?

I feel like when they bet this big they always have it, but am also like very very sure from what I've seen so far that he wouldn't check a flopped set in this spot, so seems impossible for him to have it, no?

[TL900]

I kinda wana lead one of the streets not sure which though, ye size otr feels grim but he can be betting worse and if you don't think he checks a set otf then his value range is pretty narrow.

Flick it in imo

[Ant040689]

Don't you mean he can't only just call with a flopped set?

Stack sizes would be nice if you have them please? Dependent on what both of you have left behind dictates my river decision, but it seems like you have played it perfectly until then.

[stato_1]

Real deep, 30k ish

I do mean he wouldn't check a set, since the pre flop aggressor has checked already, no reason to check as I think MP2 is fairly unlikely to bet here

[Ant040689]

Real deep, 30k ish

I do mean he wouldn't check a set, since the pre flop aggressor has checked already, no reason to check as I think MP2 is fairly unlikely to bet here

Yeh apols, misinterpreted the post.

QJ likely. AK might be doing this, as he check floated flop, hit gin turn and wants to get value on the river from a K10 from you maybe.

I go ahead and bet out river as a value blocker bet with the intention to fold many re raises. As played I go off of feel and find a call more often than not. Especially if you think he is unlikely to check a set on flop.

[outragous76]

Def stationing this off as there are quite a few under 2 pairs he could bet.

Given your reasoning that he hasn't flopped a set makes it more of a call. I mean I guess you could get shown JJ but its no reason to fold

[AlexMartin]

cant work this out, call. such an oddball line, guy deserves to be paid.

[wazz]

I call but it's close and I'm prepared to lose a lot of the time.

[pleno1]

Raising is USUalLy better than calling here.

Def folding tho

[pleno1]

Maybe folding turn not sure

[youthnkzR]

Maybe folding turn not sure

troll.

Consider raising / f to 3b. Deffo at least calling. Hard to find a hand he has which is better then ours as played. Possibly the same hand.

[pleno1]

He c call flop lead turn

[Doobs]

Raising is USUalLy better than calling here.

Def folding tho

Raising can't be better than folding, you have to assume people don't fold sets, they may give it the "really, you have a straight", and dwell a bit, but they will still mostly call.

The vast majority of the stuff we beat, he folds when we raise?

I am calling here, if he has somehow managed to get there with AhTh, or this is how he plays sets, then so be it.  We have to be losing 2 times in 3 for the call to be bad, and I just can't see that been right.

[Pinchop73]

I must be missing something here, seems like a pretty trivial fold?

Rec's take funny lines sometimes, but they rarely bet the river like this in this type of tournament without nuts. 55/66/QQ/KK/AThh seem like utterly plausible hands considering the line taken (case cards pop out from time to time). Raising river vs villain as described feels awful to me. Like he's never ever folding a set on this board as we've never got ATo hardly ever.

I do mean he wouldn't check a set, since the pre flop aggressor has checked already, no reason to check as I think MP2 is fairly unlikely to bet here

He could very very easily check with thoughts like 'rainbow flop, nothing worse than my top set calls me, best let them catch up a bit here.'

To beat rec's you absolutely have to be able to think like one. I feel utterly stupid suggesting these things to such a good player. Just wanted to provide a different yet still entirely valid viewpoint to the one's already put forward. Ta

[titaniumbean]

I want to fold somewhere, think I deffo fold river here.