Tips for Tikay

[DungBeetle]

sorry - my post was for the Watord to win title bet (forgot to quote!)

[TightEnd]

anyone got any views on Derby at the weekend?  I found a lovely spot on them but just want people's views/team news/motivation etc etc.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/derby-v-reading/winner

reading in the league have been very poor before and after their wembley semi-final.

wary of a "team needs to win will win" but Derby only need a point to get in the play offs...16 goal difference advantage over Brentford

could try to "game" finishing 5th or 6th depending if they have a preference for middlesborough or norwich?

eg a point =6th, 3 points might mean 5th

not sure derby would prefer or beat either though, so not sure if that is the angle you are coming from

Major angle really was whether the match prices for Saturday are right as the bet is based on them.

if pressed i would say derby are too short. a point does it.

bet revolves around the reading price tbh.  Is 8.5/1 fair ?

a bit big?

comparisons

brighton are 6/1 at middlesborough

fulham are 15/2 at norwich

both prices assume the play off asides rotate, rest players. would be longer a few weeks ago

reading are 8.5/1 at derby. derby in 6th with a draw

Sheff Wed are 9/1 at Watford. home team win=win title

wigan are 9/1 at brentford home team has to win to have any chance

millwall are relegated and 9/1 at wolves home team has to win to have any chance

[arbboy]

I think the 8.5/1 looks fair on the basis of those comparisons.  That's my view anyway.

[Marky147]

Settlement Day


If Fred owes you money for bets placed in April, please let me know & I'll settle up.

Dan Morgan did one, but that's being sorted.

Further bets were placed by, I think.....

Mark Porter (possibly from existing positive balance?)

Marky (loads of them)

Tal (one loser I think).

So if I owe for these, let me know for how much, & I'll sort it.

If you have a small balance in my favour (Mark Porter, & others), please hold onto it, it may come in useful later. 

As far as I can see, sonour never placed any for us this month, but if I'm mistaken, let me know.

I have settled up Mark Porter & Gok Swan.

Just awaiting THE BIG ONE now, from Marky, dread to think how much he's gonna want. This might be the right time to spring the grim.

If Pac and the Spurs win, I'll be buying you Starbucks with your own dough

[TightEnd]

Trott out for 0

looks a great pitch

Ballance time..and if not him Root please

its crunch time for these bets

[tikay]

Trott out for 0

looks a great pitch

Ballance time..and if not him Root please

its crunch time for these bets

Ballance OUT for 18, played on.

[tikay]

Trott out for 0

looks a great pitch

Ballance time..and if not him Root please

its crunch time for these bets

Ballance OUT for 18, played on.

Now Bell is out, for a duck.

Perfectly set for Root, then.

[Peter-27]

Leicester 2/7 to stay up Hills Recommend £105.  Can't have the bosses forward book being below £4k for too long!  Money sitting around not making more money is criminal.

This really is a cracking bet.  Obviously under on bf and bet365/spreadex are 4/1 leics to go down so for the arbing nits out there just take the 2% risk free commission free if you like giving ev away to the shrewder books who are happy to lay the 4/1.  Spreads have Leics in for half a point less than Villa (Leics have better GD as well) so effectively they should be close to the same price to stay up.  Villa are 1/7 Leics are 2/7 to stay up.  Hull in for 1/2 point more than villa (1 point more than Leics) on the spreads and they are 1/20 to stay up.  All the run ins are built into the spread points quotes at this stage of the season so it is a no brainer bet on all accounts.

Main dangers Sunderland are in for 3.5 points less than Leics and have worse GD as well.  Sunderland brutal run in.  Away to Everton/Ars/Chelski.  Home to Soton.  Key game is home to Leics.  Leics don't lose that the bet is effectively weighed in.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/to-stay-up

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football-domestic/premier-league/mm4.uk.meeting.4719890/premier-league-points-2014-2015

Ugh

I am concerned about tomorrow

Very little recovery time after Wednesday (we are the early game saturday), Newcastle didn't have a game

Huth is a major injury, really makes a difference to the defence

it all changes if we lose tomorrow

Don't worry the maths talks.  Get the cash on!  It is sitting idle!  Worrying about beating Newcastle!!!  lolzz.  When was the last time they got a point in a game?  Take the Leics blinkers off and stick it down to me.  I will take the strain.

Typo in original post.  Spreads got Sunderland in from 2.5 points less than Leics not 3.5 as originally quoted.

Human memories are not good enough to remember that far back ..   

I'm a Newcastle fan and do feel like we'll go down. I actually stuck £5 on it early on in April at 150/1 - at least I'd make some money from the misery!

[Tal]

What happens if Newcastle go down and Derby come up?

[arbboy]

What happens if Newcastle go down and Derby come up?

Big price double but that would be funny.

[nellberg]

Leicester 2/7 to stay up Hills Recommend £105.  Can't have the bosses forward book being below £4k for too long!  Money sitting around not making more money is criminal.

This really is a cracking bet.  Obviously under on bf and bet365/spreadex are 4/1 leics to go down so for the arbing nits out there just take the 2% risk free commission free if you like giving ev away to the shrewder books who are happy to lay the 4/1.  Spreads have Leics in for half a point less than Villa (Leics have better GD as well) so effectively they should be close to the same price to stay up.  Villa are 1/7 Leics are 2/7 to stay up.  Hull in for 1/2 point more than villa (1 point more than Leics) on the spreads and they are 1/20 to stay up.  All the run ins are built into the spread points quotes at this stage of the season so it is a no brainer bet on all accounts.

Main dangers Sunderland are in for 3.5 points less than Leics and have worse GD as well.  Sunderland brutal run in.  Away to Everton/Ars/Chelski.  Home to Soton.  Key game is home to Leics.  Leics don't lose that the bet is effectively weighed in.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/to-stay-up

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football-domestic/premier-league/mm4.uk.meeting.4719890/premier-league-points-2014-2015

Ugh

I am concerned about tomorrow

Very little recovery time after Wednesday (we are the early game saturday), Newcastle didn't have a game

Huth is a major injury, really makes a difference to the defence

it all changes if we lose tomorrow

Don't worry the maths talks.  Get the cash on!  It is sitting idle!  Worrying about beating Newcastle!!!  lolzz.  When was the last time they got a point in a game?  Take the Leics blinkers off and stick it down to me.  I will take the strain.

Typo in original post.  Spreads got Sunderland in from 2.5 points less than Leics not 3.5 as originally quoted.

Human memories are not good enough to remember that far back ..   

I'm a Newcastle fan and do feel like we'll go down. I actually stuck £5 on it early on in April at 150/1 - at least I'd make some money from the misery!

i'm a toon fan also, and i'd expect a point is the minimum leicester get tomorrow. we eased off months ago, and now we need to get it going again so we're not fully in the shit its hard. players have mentally been in cruise control since jan. i thought we were safe up until last week, but losing at home to a team who were in full holiday mode also in swansea was an eye opener

[arbboy]

Leicester 2/7 to stay up Hills Recommend £105.  Can't have the bosses forward book being below £4k for too long!  Money sitting around not making more money is criminal.

This really is a cracking bet.  Obviously under on bf and bet365/spreadex are 4/1 leics to go down so for the arbing nits out there just take the 2% risk free commission free if you like giving ev away to the shrewder books who are happy to lay the 4/1.  Spreads have Leics in for half a point less than Villa (Leics have better GD as well) so effectively they should be close to the same price to stay up.  Villa are 1/7 Leics are 2/7 to stay up.  Hull in for 1/2 point more than villa (1 point more than Leics) on the spreads and they are 1/20 to stay up.  All the run ins are built into the spread points quotes at this stage of the season so it is a no brainer bet on all accounts.

Main dangers Sunderland are in for 3.5 points less than Leics and have worse GD as well.  Sunderland brutal run in.  Away to Everton/Ars/Chelski.  Home to Soton.  Key game is home to Leics.  Leics don't lose that the bet is effectively weighed in.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/to-stay-up

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football-domestic/premier-league/mm4.uk.meeting.4719890/premier-league-points-2014-2015

Ugh

I am concerned about tomorrow

Very little recovery time after Wednesday (we are the early game saturday), Newcastle didn't have a game

Huth is a major injury, really makes a difference to the defence

it all changes if we lose tomorrow

Don't worry the maths talks.  Get the cash on!  It is sitting idle!  Worrying about beating Newcastle!!!  lolzz.  When was the last time they got a point in a game?  Take the Leics blinkers off and stick it down to me.  I will take the strain.

Typo in original post.  Spreads got Sunderland in from 2.5 points less than Leics not 3.5 as originally quoted.

Human memories are not good enough to remember that far back ..  

I'm a Newcastle fan and do feel like we'll go down. I actually stuck £5 on it early on in April at 150/1 - at least I'd make some money from the misery!

i'm a toon fan also, and i'd expect a point is the minimum leicester get tomorrow. we eased off months ago, and now we need to get it going again so we're not fully in the shit its hard. players have mentally been in cruise control since jan. i thought we were safe up until last week, but losing at home to a team who were in full holiday mode also in swansea was an eye opener

fuck me Newcastle could go on a cruise now and put the school boys out and they will stay up. Jesus have you seen sunder lands run in? Lot of Geordies need to realise there is no chance you are going down.

Not sure how Swansea are on full holiday mode. Since bony left they'd have just kept grinding out results and reached record epl point totals. They certainly look motivated to me.  Not looking forward to playing them tomorrow as a Stoke fan with a lumpy Stoke top ten bet still in the balance.

Talking of teams on the beach Newcastle have to play the biggest two other than themselves west brom and West Ham both at home.  If you lose all four of your games left and still go down then there really can't be any arguments. You couldn't have an easier set of final four games if you selected them yourself.

I think Newcastle are a cracking lay at the current prices to go down. All this hype about them in free fall just makes it cheaper and cheaper to lay them as the wagons over react.

[Peter-27]

Leicester 2/7 to stay up Hills Recommend £105.  Can't have the bosses forward book being below £4k for too long!  Money sitting around not making more money is criminal.

This really is a cracking bet.  Obviously under on bf and bet365/spreadex are 4/1 leics to go down so for the arbing nits out there just take the 2% risk free commission free if you like giving ev away to the shrewder books who are happy to lay the 4/1.  Spreads have Leics in for half a point less than Villa (Leics have better GD as well) so effectively they should be close to the same price to stay up.  Villa are 1/7 Leics are 2/7 to stay up.  Hull in for 1/2 point more than villa (1 point more than Leics) on the spreads and they are 1/20 to stay up.  All the run ins are built into the spread points quotes at this stage of the season so it is a no brainer bet on all accounts.

Main dangers Sunderland are in for 3.5 points less than Leics and have worse GD as well.  Sunderland brutal run in.  Away to Everton/Ars/Chelski.  Home to Soton.  Key game is home to Leics.  Leics don't lose that the bet is effectively weighed in.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/to-stay-up

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football-domestic/premier-league/mm4.uk.meeting.4719890/premier-league-points-2014-2015

Ugh

I am concerned about tomorrow

Very little recovery time after Wednesday (we are the early game saturday), Newcastle didn't have a game

Huth is a major injury, really makes a difference to the defence

it all changes if we lose tomorrow

Don't worry the maths talks.  Get the cash on!  It is sitting idle!  Worrying about beating Newcastle!!!  lolzz.  When was the last time they got a point in a game?  Take the Leics blinkers off and stick it down to me.  I will take the strain.

Typo in original post.  Spreads got Sunderland in from 2.5 points less than Leics not 3.5 as originally quoted.

Human memories are not good enough to remember that far back ..   

I'm a Newcastle fan and do feel like we'll go down. I actually stuck £5 on it early on in April at 150/1 - at least I'd make some money from the misery!

i'm a toon fan also, and i'd expect a point is the minimum leicester get tomorrow. we eased off months ago, and now we need to get it going again so we're not fully in the shit its hard. players have mentally been in cruise control since jan. i thought we were safe up until last week, but losing at home to a team who were in full holiday mode also in swansea was an eye opener

Our players are terrible, and based on how we've performed for the majority of the season, we do deserve to go down. There really is little hope going forward until mike leaves the club ..

Leicester 2/7 to stay up Hills Recommend £105.  Can't have the bosses forward book being below £4k for too long!  Money sitting around not making more money is criminal.

This really is a cracking bet.  Obviously under on bf and bet365/spreadex are 4/1 leics to go down so for the arbing nits out there just take the 2% risk free commission free if you like giving ev away to the shrewder books who are happy to lay the 4/1.  Spreads have Leics in for half a point less than Villa (Leics have better GD as well) so effectively they should be close to the same price to stay up.  Villa are 1/7 Leics are 2/7 to stay up.  Hull in for 1/2 point more than villa (1 point more than Leics) on the spreads and they are 1/20 to stay up.  All the run ins are built into the spread points quotes at this stage of the season so it is a no brainer bet on all accounts.

Main dangers Sunderland are in for 3.5 points less than Leics and have worse GD as well.  Sunderland brutal run in.  Away to Everton/Ars/Chelski.  Home to Soton.  Key game is home to Leics.  Leics don't lose that the bet is effectively weighed in.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/to-stay-up

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football-domestic/premier-league/mm4.uk.meeting.4719890/premier-league-points-2014-2015

Ugh

I am concerned about tomorrow

Very little recovery time after Wednesday (we are the early game saturday), Newcastle didn't have a game

Huth is a major injury, really makes a difference to the defence

it all changes if we lose tomorrow

Don't worry the maths talks.  Get the cash on!  It is sitting idle!  Worrying about beating Newcastle!!!  lolzz.  When was the last time they got a point in a game?  Take the Leics blinkers off and stick it down to me.  I will take the strain.

Typo in original post.  Spreads got Sunderland in from 2.5 points less than Leics not 3.5 as originally quoted.

Human memories are not good enough to remember that far back ..   

I'm a Newcastle fan and do feel like we'll go down. I actually stuck £5 on it early on in April at 150/1 - at least I'd make some money from the misery!

i'm a toon fan also, and i'd expect a point is the minimum leicester get tomorrow. we eased off months ago, and now we need to get it going again so we're not fully in the shit its hard. players have mentally been in cruise control since jan. i thought we were safe up until last week, but losing at home to a team who were in full holiday mode also in swansea was an eye opener

fuck me Newcastle could go on a cruise now and put the school boys out and they will stay up. Jesus have you seen sunder lands run in? Lot of Geordies need to realise there is no chance you are going down.

Not sure how Swansea are on full holiday mode. Since bony left they'd have just kept grinding out results and reached record epl point totals. They certainly look motivated to me.  Not looking forward to playing them tomorrow as a Stoke fan with a lumpy Stoke top ten bet still in the balance.

Talking of teams on the beach Newcastle have to play the biggest two other than themselves west brom and West Ham both at home.  If you lose all four of your games left and still go down then there really can't be any arguments. You couldn't have an easier set of final four games if you selected them yourself.

I think Newcastle are a cracking lay at the current prices to go down. All this hype about them in free fall just makes it cheaper and cheaper to lay them as the wagons over react.

Have you seen us play lately? I couldn't pick any Premier League team to face that I would expect to get three points from ..

Sunderland do have a very hard run in, which may well save us. However, as we've seen so many times in the past, teams can do well when the threat of relegation looms.

[JohnCharver]

Price on charltons ridiculous. Theyve recovered well from a poor position and cant see why they wouldnt look to finish on a high. Theres far too much emphasis on teams needing a win in  alot of prices(when has that ever meant anything?). Theres a decent shop window/ chance to get contract for players at clubs like charlton, maybe that doesnt exist as much in the spoilt world of prem footballers. If championship teams could win when they needed to we wouldnt be looking at the pathetic points total the winners will have (averaging less than two points a game is very rarely enough to win a league).

Dont think youd be out of pocket backing all the prices that are manipulated by their opposition needing a result.

[Tal]

As a Buffalo Bills fan, this is when the 2015 draft starts (we traded our first round pick away last year). Buffalo's first pick market with Red Shouty Man:

Offense: 8/13
Defense: 6/5

We have three tackles in our roster. Jets and Miami defences look scary all of a sudden and we have half a quarterback to protect. Oh, and a run game that requires gaps.

I know lots of OLinemen have gone, but there aren't going to be more magically appearing and we have to concentrate on our weaknesses. Whaley picked three OLinemen last year I think and that didn't really work out. Try again.

We also need Tight Ends for the Greg Roman system. Badly. If he's still on the board, we might pick the quarterback Bryce Petty and Whaley has confirmed that we have done "due diligence" on tackle, La'el Collins whatever that means.

Yes, we could press "best available", but why go to all this trouble in free agency not to draft a competitive OLine?

In plain English, we really need the engine room for our offense and improvement in our defense is more in squad players than starters. Therefore, going offense while the best players are available is much more likely.

8/13 feels a little juicy.

Madness? Be interested in views. £26 for £16 if we fancy.