Independence Referendum

[Rod Paradise]

Surely all people are saying is that if Betfair is trading "No" at 4/11 then it seems fair to assume that "No" is the most likely outcome irrespective of what individual posters on here think.  Seems an unreasonable starting point to a debate for someone to say that "Yes" is favourite.  You might win independence, but at the current point in time you are the outsider in a 2 horse race.  That's all anyone is saying.

Correct and it would make the debate a lot more sensible if even the most ardent Yes campaigns would admit that as what you have stated above is, beyond all reasonable doubt, currently fact.  It's not a sign of weakness to admit you are an underdog and actually tell the truth.  The Yes campaign won't show you your P45 for being logical surely?

Fine we're the outside bet. Just a thought if all those who voted in the original poll on here bet £10 what would the odds be? And if we looked at how many were Scottish with a vote what would the result be?

The idea of market intelligence is valid, but it's not at it's best when the whole market is informed and if the whole market has the same influence on the result...

The whole betting tips thread is about finding where the market has missed a trick and exploiting it, I gather you don't go into betting threads arguing that the Market is infallible?

I assume you mean its not at it's best when the market is UNINFORMED as it is perfectly at it's best when the market is completely informed.

Correct - mistype when I reworded it it & forgot to change when to unless.... I'd just changed it as you posted this.

There's another assumption beyond that of 'the patriotic Scottish punt' (typed that carefully), what about the patriotic English punt? Some of the press down south seem to have started out portraying the referendum as a daft thing the SNP were dong that was doomed to failure, through a growing annoyance at uppity jocks, to full blown anger at our ingratitude now, surely that influences the vote down south as well?

[arbboy]

Surely all people are saying is that if Betfair is trading "No" at 4/11 then it seems fair to assume that "No" is the most likely outcome irrespective of what individual posters on here think.  Seems an unreasonable starting point to a debate for someone to say that "Yes" is favourite.  You might win independence, but at the current point in time you are the outsider in a 2 horse race.  That's all anyone is saying.

Correct and it would make the debate a lot more sensible if even the most ardent Yes campaigns would admit that as what you have stated above is, beyond all reasonable doubt, currently fact.  It's not a sign of weakness to admit you are an underdog and actually tell the truth.  The Yes campaign won't show you your P45 for being logical surely?

Fine we're the outside bet. Just a thought if all those who voted in the original poll on here bet £10 what would the odds be? And if we looked at how many were Scottish with a vote what would the result be?

The idea of market intelligence is valid, but it's not at it's best when the whole market is informed and if the whole market has the same influence on the result...

The whole betting tips thread is about finding where the market has missed a trick and exploiting it, I gather you don't go into betting threads arguing that the Market is infallible?

I assume you mean its not at it's best when the market is UNINFORMED as it is perfectly at it's best when the market is completely informed.

Correct - mistype when I reworded it it & forgot to change when to unless.... I'd just changed it as you posted this.

There's another assumption beyond that of 'the patriotic Scottish punt' (typed that carefully), what about the patriotic English punt? Some of the press down south seem to have started out portraying the referendum as a daft thing the SNP were dong that was doomed to failure, through a growing annoyance at uppity jocks, to full blown anger at our ingratitude now, surely that influences the vote down south as well?

That's all well and good and perfectly acceptable but what it does if it has actually happened is forces the yes price too short (ie the bf odds currently shown are underestimating the chance of no winning so it's more than the 72% the current prices suggest)  Which is why big hitting pro punters will step in and take advantage of this potential over reaction by backing no at a price bigger than it should be.  I am not saying this is happening but if what you say would happen with a patriotic punt occurring in a mass scale.  This occurred when Ricky Hatton fought Mayweather a few years ago on a massive scale and the sheer weight of cash for Hatton made Mayweather become a much bigger price than he should have been and the professional punters suitably woke up at 4am and backed Money at 4/6 or whatever incredible price he drifted to.

[curnow]

Spain without the sunshine?  

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/08/opinion/paul-krugman-scots-what-the-heck.html?_r=3

I am more concerned by this:

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29105565

I am going on holiday in November! Selfish fuckers wanting independence killing my Vegas fund! I am sure somewhere in the manifesto I will have been promised my holiday money top up so it will be fine

If only Osborne would heed the advice of Mark Carney and stop ruling out a currency union. the over-leveraged pound can't afford to lose 10% of GDP....

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/29/mark-carney-scottish-independence-currency-union

Mark Carney said Scotland would need to give up significant areas of its sovereignty and reach a watertight deal with the UK on banking, taxation and spending if a new sterling zone were to avoid the risks and instability which had plagued the euro.

just wonder what kind of independance Alex Salmond is offering Scotland , what he real wants is to give it away to Brussels ,

"Alex Salmond ought to be well aware that to make a monetary union work properly you need a political union, as in the US; that a political union is what the crisis-hit eurozone lacks; and that what the first minister of Scotland wants to throw away is the political union that would make his planned monetary union with Great Britain actually work. " quote from http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/sep/07/alex-salmond-monetary-union-europe-eurozone-crisis

[Rod Paradise]

Surely all people are saying is that if Betfair is trading "No" at 4/11 then it seems fair to assume that "No" is the most likely outcome irrespective of what individual posters on here think.  Seems an unreasonable starting point to a debate for someone to say that "Yes" is favourite.  You might win independence, but at the current point in time you are the outsider in a 2 horse race.  That's all anyone is saying.

Correct and it would make the debate a lot more sensible if even the most ardent Yes campaigns would admit that as what you have stated above is, beyond all reasonable doubt, currently fact.  It's not a sign of weakness to admit you are an underdog and actually tell the truth.  The Yes campaign won't show you your P45 for being logical surely?

Fine we're the outside bet. Just a thought if all those who voted in the original poll on here bet £10 what would the odds be? And if we looked at how many were Scottish with a vote what would the result be?

The idea of market intelligence is valid, but it's not at it's best when the whole market is informed and if the whole market has the same influence on the result...

The whole betting tips thread is about finding where the market has missed a trick and exploiting it, I gather you don't go into betting threads arguing that the Market is infallible?

I assume you mean its not at it's best when the market is UNINFORMED as it is perfectly at it's best when the market is completely informed.

Correct - mistype when I reworded it it & forgot to change when to unless.... I'd just changed it as you posted this.

There's another assumption beyond that of 'the patriotic Scottish punt' (typed that carefully), what about the patriotic English punt? Some of the press down south seem to have started out portraying the referendum as a daft thing the SNP were dong that was doomed to failure, through a growing annoyance at uppity jocks, to full blown anger at our ingratitude now, surely that influences the vote down south as well?

That's all well and good and perfectly acceptable but what it does if it has actually happened is forces the yes price too short (ie the bf odds currently shown are underestimating the chance of no winning so it's more than the 72% the current prices suggest)  Which is why big hitting pro punters will step in and take advantage of this potential over reaction by backing no at a price bigger than it should be.  I am not saying this is happening but if what you say would happen with a patriotic punt occurring in a mass scale.  This occurred when Ricky Hatton fought Mayweather a few years ago on a massive scale and the sheer weight of cash for Hatton made Mayweather become a much bigger price than he should have been and the professional suitably woke up at 4am and backed Money at 4/6 or whatever incredible price he drifted to.

No that's not what I'm saying - I'm saying the informed part of the market is dwarfed by the less informed part, and likewise the patriotic Scottish market is dwarfed by the patriotic English market.

So where the Betfair market can be a very good judge, in this issue it's to skewed to be relied on.

That's why I made the earlier example of the poll on this thread, I consider the Blonde forum generally highly intelligent, but to take the blonde market as a whole, with the associated biases for and against Indy, would be a mistake IMO.

[arbboy]

Surely all people are saying is that if Betfair is trading "No" at 4/11 then it seems fair to assume that "No" is the most likely outcome irrespective of what individual posters on here think.  Seems an unreasonable starting point to a debate for someone to say that "Yes" is favourite.  You might win independence, but at the current point in time you are the outsider in a 2 horse race.  That's all anyone is saying.

Correct and it would make the debate a lot more sensible if even the most ardent Yes campaigns would admit that as what you have stated above is, beyond all reasonable doubt, currently fact.  It's not a sign of weakness to admit you are an underdog and actually tell the truth.  The Yes campaign won't show you your P45 for being logical surely?

Fine we're the outside bet. Just a thought if all those who voted in the original poll on here bet £10 what would the odds be? And if we looked at how many were Scottish with a vote what would the result be?

The idea of market intelligence is valid, but it's not at it's best when the whole market is informed and if the whole market has the same influence on the result...

The whole betting tips thread is about finding where the market has missed a trick and exploiting it, I gather you don't go into betting threads arguing that the Market is infallible?

I assume you mean its not at it's best when the market is UNINFORMED as it is perfectly at it's best when the market is completely informed.

Correct - mistype when I reworded it it & forgot to change when to unless.... I'd just changed it as you posted this.

There's another assumption beyond that of 'the patriotic Scottish punt' (typed that carefully), what about the patriotic English punt? Some of the press down south seem to have started out portraying the referendum as a daft thing the SNP were dong that was doomed to failure, through a growing annoyance at uppity jocks, to full blown anger at our ingratitude now, surely that influences the vote down south as well?

That's all well and good and perfectly acceptable but what it does if it has actually happened is forces the yes price too short (ie the bf odds currently shown are underestimating the chance of no winning so it's more than the 72% the current prices suggest)  Which is why big hitting pro punters will step in and take advantage of this potential over reaction by backing no at a price bigger than it should be.  I am not saying this is happening but if what you say would happen with a patriotic punt occurring in a mass scale.  This occurred when Ricky Hatton fought Mayweather a few years ago on a massive scale and the sheer weight of cash for Hatton made Mayweather become a much bigger price than he should have been and the professional suitably woke up at 4am and backed Money at 4/6 or whatever incredible price he drifted to.

No that's not what I'm saying - I'm saying the informed part of the market is dwarfed by the less informed part, and likewise the patriotic Scottish market is dwarfed by the patriotic English market.

So where the Betfair market can be a very good judge, in this issue it's to skewed to be relied on.

That's why I made the earlier example of the poll on this thread, I consider the Blonde forum generally highly intelligent, but to take the blonde market as a whole, with the associated biases for and against Indy, would be a mistake IMO.

The informed part of the market though bets in volumes 10/20/50/100 times bigger than the 'mug' masses so the actual volumes could easily be close to balanced.

[pleno1]

If all if the UK was allowed to vote what do you think the %s would look like?

[Rod Paradise]

Spain without the sunshine?  

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/08/opinion/paul-krugman-scots-what-the-heck.html?_r=3

I am more concerned by this:

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29105565

I am going on holiday in November! Selfish fuckers wanting independence killing my Vegas fund! I am sure somewhere in the manifesto I will have been promised my holiday money top up so it will be fine

If only Osborne would heed the advice of Mark Carney and stop ruling out a currency union. the over-leveraged pound can't afford to lose 10% of GDP....

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/29/mark-carney-scottish-independence-currency-union

Mark Carney said Scotland would need to give up significant areas of its sovereignty and reach a watertight deal with the UK on banking, taxation and spending if a new sterling zone were to avoid the risks and instability which had plagued the euro.

just wonder what kind of independance Alex Salmond is offering Scotland , what he real wants is to give it away to Brussels ,

"Alex Salmond ought to be well aware that to make a monetary union work properly you need a political union, as in the US; that a political union is what the crisis-hit eurozone lacks; and that what the first minister of Scotland wants to throw away is the political union that would make his planned monetary union with Great Britain actually work. " quote from http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/sep/07/alex-salmond-monetary-union-europe-eurozone-crisis

Mark Carney has said that the BoE would be able to make a Currency Union work. And he didn't make the quote you've quoted there, from a very reactionary opinion piece.

As I'm getting sick of saying  - the idea that Independence somehow doesn't count if any part of what you do can be influenced from outside is patently ridiculous.

Most countries who gain independence continue to use their currency until such point as it suits them to create their own, it's not unusual. What the Scottish Government is offering, with good reason, is a more formal arrangement, meaning that Scotland's exports help keep Sterling up, because it's in our interests as well. rUK is a big export market for us, and we don't want to see the currency tank, it'd hurt us too, hence the reluctance to say we'd use sterlingisation, or create our own currency - because Sterling would struggle to cope with a 10% cut in output, meaning a hit for Scotland.

I laugh when people don't look at where the idea came from, and try and make it out to be some pie in the sky idea Alex Salmond made up in a flight of fancy. it is the recommendation from a think tank of leading economists, listed below.

Professor Andrew Hughes Hallett, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at George Mason University and visiting Professor of Economics at the University of St Andrews; previously consultant for the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the Federal Reserve Board, the United Nations, the OECD, the European Commission and various central banks
Professor Frances P. Ruane, Director of Ireland's Economic and Social Research Institute; previously Associate Professor of Economics at Trinity College, Dublin
Professor Sir James Mirrlees, Professor Emeritus at Cambridge University and distinguished professor-at-large at the Chinese University of Hong Kong; awarded the Nobel Prize for his work on economic models and equations about situations where information is asymmetrical or incomplete.
Joseph Eugene Stiglitz, professor at Columbia University. He is a recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences and the John Bates Clark Medal.
Chaired by Crawford Beveridge, Executive Vice President and Chairman of Sun Microsystems in Europe, the Middle East and Africa; previously Chief Executive of Scottish Enterprise

A naturalised American, an Irishwoman, a Scotsman, an Englishman, an American & a Scottish Chairman, so not even much evidence of bias.

On the other hand we have George Osborne...

[Rod Paradise]

Surely all people are saying is that if Betfair is trading "No" at 4/11 then it seems fair to assume that "No" is the most likely outcome irrespective of what individual posters on here think.  Seems an unreasonable starting point to a debate for someone to say that "Yes" is favourite.  You might win independence, but at the current point in time you are the outsider in a 2 horse race.  That's all anyone is saying.

Correct and it would make the debate a lot more sensible if even the most ardent Yes campaigns would admit that as what you have stated above is, beyond all reasonable doubt, currently fact.  It's not a sign of weakness to admit you are an underdog and actually tell the truth.  The Yes campaign won't show you your P45 for being logical surely?

Fine we're the outside bet. Just a thought if all those who voted in the original poll on here bet £10 what would the odds be? And if we looked at how many were Scottish with a vote what would the result be?

The idea of market intelligence is valid, but it's not at it's best when the whole market is informed and if the whole market has the same influence on the result...

The whole betting tips thread is about finding where the market has missed a trick and exploiting it, I gather you don't go into betting threads arguing that the Market is infallible?

I assume you mean its not at it's best when the market is UNINFORMED as it is perfectly at it's best when the market is completely informed.

Correct - mistype when I reworded it it & forgot to change when to unless.... I'd just changed it as you posted this.

There's another assumption beyond that of 'the patriotic Scottish punt' (typed that carefully), what about the patriotic English punt? Some of the press down south seem to have started out portraying the referendum as a daft thing the SNP were dong that was doomed to failure, through a growing annoyance at uppity jocks, to full blown anger at our ingratitude now, surely that influences the vote down south as well?

That's all well and good and perfectly acceptable but what it does if it has actually happened is forces the yes price too short (ie the bf odds currently shown are underestimating the chance of no winning so it's more than the 72% the current prices suggest)  Which is why big hitting pro punters will step in and take advantage of this potential over reaction by backing no at a price bigger than it should be.  I am not saying this is happening but if what you say would happen with a patriotic punt occurring in a mass scale.  This occurred when Ricky Hatton fought Mayweather a few years ago on a massive scale and the sheer weight of cash for Hatton made Mayweather become a much bigger price than he should have been and the professional suitably woke up at 4am and backed Money at 4/6 or whatever incredible price he drifted to.

No that's not what I'm saying - I'm saying the informed part of the market is dwarfed by the less informed part, and likewise the patriotic Scottish market is dwarfed by the patriotic English market.

So where the Betfair market can be a very good judge, in this issue it's to skewed to be relied on.

That's why I made the earlier example of the poll on this thread, I consider the Blonde forum generally highly intelligent, but to take the blonde market as a whole, with the associated biases for and against Indy, would be a mistake IMO.

The informed part of the market though bets in volumes 10/20/50/100 times bigger than the 'mug' masses so the actual volumes could easily be close to balanced.

Depends what you consider the informed part. And I'm not meaning informed as intelligent - I mean exposed to more information, a lot more.

[Rod Paradise]

If all if the UK was allowed to vote what do you think the %s would look like?

I don't know, it's a good question. I reckon the No campaign would have been a LOT different, probably making most of the points the Yes campaign have re economy etc.

We're getting support from Wales, and some of NI, but I think the sheer population of England and the fact that England seems far more invested in Britain in general (not taking into account certain groups in the West of Scotland & NI) would mean the No's would take it - by a sizeable majority.

[DungBeetle]

Having a strong currency isn't all a one way street.  Germany benefited enormously from having the Euro as opposed to the very strong Mark.  Part of Greece's problem is that they can't devalue like they used to now they have the Euro.  

The currency of a country should be at the level the market determines.  The argument of keeping a stronger currency should not be the key consideration imo.

[Teacake]

Spain without the sunshine?  

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/08/opinion/paul-krugman-scots-what-the-heck.html?_r=3

I am more concerned by this:

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29105565

I am going on holiday in November! Selfish fuckers wanting independence killing my Vegas fund! I am sure somewhere in the manifesto I will have been promised my holiday money top up so it will be fine

Hi mate, you made a point earlier about not having evidenced any DKs to Yes, I'm interested in which part of the country you are based if you don't mind sharing. Cheers.

[OverTheBorder]

Spain without the sunshine?  

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/08/opinion/paul-krugman-scots-what-the-heck.html?_r=3

I am more concerned by this:

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29105565

I am going on holiday in November! Selfish fuckers wanting independence killing my Vegas fund! I am sure somewhere in the manifesto I will have been promised my holiday money top up so it will be fine

Hi mate, you made a point earlier about not having evidenced any DKs to Yes, I'm interested in which part of the country you are based if you don't mind sharing. Cheers.

I live in Kinglassie in Fife, I am from Edinburgh and I work in Glasgow.  So my friends are Edinburgh, my colleagues are Glasgow and my local friends are Fife.  I also work with people from Inverness to the Borders but I do not talk independence with them as it is a bit taboo to discuss in work time.  I do not talk it through with 1000's but am yet to speak to or see a clear mind changer.  I have seen a lot of maybes go to yes.

[nirvana]

Haven't caught up on the last few pages and will in a second. Quite momentous that this really hasty cross party coalition crops up to recommend new powers for the Scots in the event of a no.

This can't be altruism, so I guess it must be vested interest. Not sure I've seen any issue force a change like this in such a short timescale in terms of cross party cooperation or policy development.

Pretty fun all this

[OverTheBorder]

If all if the UK was allowed to vote what do you think the %s would look like?

I don't know, it's a good question. I reckon the No campaign would have been a LOT different, probably making most of the points the Yes campaign have re economy etc.

We're getting support from Wales, and some of NI, but I think the sheer population of England and the fact that England seems far more invested in Britain in general (not taking into account certain groups in the West of Scotland & NI) would mean the No's would take it - by a sizeable majority.

UK wide it would be something like 75/25 to 80/20 I guess.  Even if there is a 50% Scottish support, I assume that is only 2 million to 2.5 million votes, which is a small proportion of UK electorate.  If the Yes campaign is saying Scotland would be better and the No's want us to stay, then hard to see how any other than the "wouldnt it be funny if they fucked it up camp" arrboy/Woodsey, would vote yes.

[TightEnd]

all this last minute stuff from Westminster has to be counterproductive doesn't it?

if they meant it, they would have offered it years ago?

if i was a maybe-yes, fairly sure it would tip me over the edge to sticking two fingers up at Gordon Brown who has been wheeled out to front No over the last week!