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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13522197 times)
arbboy
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« Reply #81300 on: June 24, 2014, 04:01:01 PM »

Anybody think England are a lay at 1.78 ?


Yes but prefer to wait until they are backed into 1.65 later on then hit the lay button.  The 5pm start might slow down the gamble as the mugs won't be in from work in time.  I will be laying Italy as well if they get much shorter.  Not entirely sure why they are so short for this game given a draw will suffice and get them through.  Hard to see them taking many risks late in the game if it's tied up.  Not have that much between the sides to justify the difference in prices.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2014, 04:07:51 PM by arbboy » Logged
Chompy
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« Reply #81301 on: June 24, 2014, 04:28:35 PM »

The Irish Derby is an interesting race.

Listen is responsible for seven of the 11 entries and it's 2/5 Australia, 3/1 Kingston Hill, 8 True Story, 14 Bar.

There's rain forecast, which won't suit Australia and True Story (never looked happy on it at York) but would be ideal for Kingston Hill.

If it gets good to soft or worse there's every chance Listen will take Australia out. In which case we'd be left with maybe six or seven runners and Kingston Hill very short.

Looking at the Dublin forecast it looks very unlikely the ground will be too fast for Kingston Hill to run, so this looks a good trading spot.

Racebets are 7/2, a fifth 1-2-3, which is obv the best option. Otherwise Baldy and Mountains are offering the same EW terms (a few others are 1/4 1-2).

Suggest as much as we are happy with each-way with a view to trading.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #81302 on: June 24, 2014, 04:35:49 PM »

The Irish Derby is an interesting race.

Listen is responsible for seven of the 11 entries and it's 2/5 Australia, 3/1 Kingston Hill, 8 True Story, 14 Bar.

There's rain forecast, which won't suit Australia and True Story (never looked happy on it at York) but would be ideal for Kingston Hill.

If it gets good to soft or worse there's every chance Listen will take Australia out. In which case we'd be left with maybe six or seven runners and Kingston Hill very short.

Looking at the Dublin forecast it looks very unlikely the ground will be too fast for Kingston Hill to run, so this looks a good trading spot.

Racebets are 7/2, a fifth 1-2-3, which is obv the best option. Otherwise Baldy and Mountains are offering the same EW terms (a few others are 1/4 1-2).

Suggest as much as we are happy with each-way with a view to trading.

Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby
Antepost Outright
EW 1/5 1,2,3    Kingston Hill    3/1    
Total stake   £ 200.00
Estimated return   £ 560.00
Full stake   £ 200.00
Full estimated return   £ 560.00

racebets only tends to be funded for a specific bet, and as the boss is not around i had to do betfred
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TightEnd
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« Reply #81303 on: June 24, 2014, 04:38:15 PM »

We have £200 at 23/10 3.3 italy/uruguay draw

which i need to close pre kick-off

unfortunately it is 3.7 the draw, the outsider of the three way result market


what is the best way to proceed here from a "get out" point of view?
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arbboy
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« Reply #81304 on: June 24, 2014, 04:38:37 PM »

The Irish Derby is an interesting race.

Listen is responsible for seven of the 11 entries and it's 2/5 Australia, 3/1 Kingston Hill, 8 True Story, 14 Bar.

There's rain forecast, which won't suit Australia and True Story (never looked happy on it at York) but would be ideal for Kingston Hill.

If it gets good to soft or worse there's every chance Listen will take Australia out. In which case we'd be left with maybe six or seven runners and Kingston Hill very short.

Looking at the Dublin forecast it looks very unlikely the ground will be too fast for Kingston Hill to run, so this looks a good trading spot.

Racebets are 7/2, a fifth 1-2-3, which is obv the best option. Otherwise Baldy and Mountains are offering the same EW terms (a few others are 1/4 1-2).

Suggest as much as we are happy with each-way with a view to trading.

Great spot chomps. ty in advance
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Dubai
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« Reply #81305 on: June 24, 2014, 04:40:21 PM »

I posted yesterday morning when draw was 3.35-3.4 saying to close out for level/small loss. I'd be less inclined to lay 3.7.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #81306 on: June 24, 2014, 04:41:42 PM »

I posted yesterday morning when draw was 3.35-3.4 saying to close out for level/small loss. I'd be less inclined to lay 3.7.

you asked me to check near kick off (and then lay), i believe
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« Reply #81307 on: June 24, 2014, 04:42:17 PM »

I posted yesterday morning when draw was 3.35-3.4 saying to close out for level/small loss. I'd be less inclined to lay 3.7.

Would u lay in running?
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arbboy
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« Reply #81308 on: June 24, 2014, 04:43:10 PM »

We have £200 at 23/10 3.3 italy/uruguay draw

which i need to close pre kick-off

unfortunately it is 3.7 the draw, the outsider of the three way result market


what is the best way to proceed here from a "get out" point of view?

My personal view is unders and the draw are too big now.  I get 3rd group games are higher scoring etc etc but i just don't see italy having much incentive to try and win this game.
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Dubai
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« Reply #81309 on: June 24, 2014, 04:45:29 PM »

Id dump the 200 off nearer off to break level or take a small loss, small downside high upside was argument behind bet anyway. Similar to price Germany USA draw is now was what I was anticipating if results went right

It went shorter yesterday after I posted. I obv didn't mean just before kickoff but should have stated a time, if it was my money I wouldn't lay back at 3.7- maybe let it run and lay in running if it's a lot for fred
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DungBeetle
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« Reply #81310 on: June 24, 2014, 04:47:06 PM »

We have £200 at 23/10 3.3 italy/uruguay draw

which i need to close pre kick-off

unfortunately it is 3.7 the draw, the outsider of the three way result market


what is the best way to proceed here from a "get out" point of view?

This makes no sense to me?  Why is the draw on the drift?
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Dubai
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« Reply #81311 on: June 24, 2014, 04:48:01 PM »

Been biggish move for Italy. So draw drifts
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arbboy
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« Reply #81312 on: June 24, 2014, 04:51:25 PM »

are racebets 100% safe?  Any heads up on who owns them etc?
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Dubai
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« Reply #81313 on: June 24, 2014, 04:54:57 PM »

If you want to close the position out Tighty il have £200@ whatever price draw is to lay- save commission and Fred would be 0 both teams and -x on draw
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sonour
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« Reply #81314 on: June 24, 2014, 04:56:49 PM »

Anybody think England are a lay at 1.78 ?


Yes but prefer to wait until they are backed into 1.65 later on then hit the lay button.  The 5pm start might slow down the gamble as the mugs won't be in from work in time.  I will be laying Italy as well if they get much shorter.  Not entirely sure why they are so short for this game given a draw will suffice and get them through.  Hard to see them taking many risks late in the game if it's tied up.  Not have that much between the sides to justify the difference in prices.


Cheers
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