Tips for Tikay

[nellberg]

I know I should probably know this but ..

7/1 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4

or

6/1 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5

6/1 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5 is slightly better, but assuming that this is a favourite in a golf tournament, the extra place is worth slightly less, so not much in it imo

cricket, IPL outright top batsman. With Kohli possibly missing chunks of the season I'm keen to back Warner.

[nellberg]

I know I should probably know this but ..

7/1 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4

or

6/1 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5

6/1 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5 is slightly better, but assuming that this is a favourite in a golf tournament, the extra place is worth slightly less, so not much in it imo

cricket, IPL outright top batsman. With Kohli possibly missing chunks of the season I'm keen to back Warner.

Found some 9/1 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4 with betweigh, which is assume is much better. Cheers for the help though. Is there a blank formula to use in these cases? just for future reference

[Doobs]

I know I should probably know this but ..

7/1 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4

or

6/1 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5

6/1 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5 is slightly better, but assuming that this is a favourite in a golf tournament, the extra place is worth slightly less, so not much in it imo

cricket, IPL outright top batsman. With Kohli possibly missing chunks of the season I'm keen to back Warner.

Found some 9/1 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4 with betweigh, which is assume is much better. Cheers for the help though. Is there a blank formula to use in these cases? just for future reference

Much better, I'd say 7/1 4 places is going to be better than 6/1 5 places too.   You'd have to assume a pretty slow drop off in the odds on each place for the 6/1 to be better.

Using a formula for every event is going to suck a bit, as the 5th place from 16 runners is going to be better than the 5th from 35.  If you aren't really sure what you are doing, just use betfair.  If there isn't a market, just ask. 

[Ant040689]

On the Palace bets I would say there is value in both games, Arsenal and Southampton. I do like the handicap angle on both though. I like doing both the win market for Southampton and the handicap, and the outright handicap for Arsenal.

Quick question just for clarification, as i am confused by how similarly priced they are...

the Palace +1 handicap below is if Southampton win by 1, you get your stake back, but if it is a draw or better you win?

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/handicaps

But the Palace +0.5 asian handicap below is if you lose by one you lose it all and you need the draw or better?

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/asian-handicap

How is it they are effectively the same price? Clearly the normal handicap is so much better or am i missing something?

[Doobs]

On the Palace bets I would say there is value in both games, Arsenal and Southampton. I do like the handicap angle on both though. I like doing both the win market for Southampton and the handicap, and the outright handicap for Arsenal.

Quick question just for clarification, as i am confused by how similarly priced they are...

the Palace +1 handicap below is if Southampton win by 1, you get your stake back, but if it is a draw or better you win?

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/handicaps

But the Palace +0.5 asian handicap below is if you lose by one you lose it all and you need the draw or better?

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/asian-handicap

How is it they are effectively the same price? Clearly the normal handicap is so much better or am i missing something?

The top one looks like a three way handicap, so why would you get your stakeback?

[doubleup]

I know I should probably know this but ..

7/1 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4

or

6/1 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5

6/1 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5 is slightly better, but assuming that this is a favourite in a golf tournament, the extra place is worth slightly less, so not much in it imo

cricket, IPL outright top batsman. With Kohli possibly missing chunks of the season I'm keen to back Warner.

Found some 9/1 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4 with betweigh, which is assume is much better. Cheers for the help though. Is there a blank formula to use in these cases? just for future reference

Much better, I'd say 7/1 4 places is going to be better than 6/1 5 places too.   You'd have to assume a pretty slow drop off in the odds on each place for the 6/1 to be better.

Using a formula for every event is going to suck a bit, as the 5th place from 16 runners is going to be better than the 5th from 35.  If you aren't really sure what you are doing, just use betfair.  If there isn't a market, just ask. 

You can download this excel sheet, but it is really only a reasonable guide for 20-1 plus odds imo.  The problem with using it for shorter odds is that the calc assumes that the odds of finishing first are the same as finishing 5th and this becomes less true the shorter the odds.

The spreadsheet is fine for comparing the various offers on the Masters golf outside the first few favourites.

https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=AEFB6FBC913A92D2!157&ithint=file%2cxlsx&app=Excel&authkey=!APdm6nXInsQowTk

[Ant040689]

On the Palace bets I would say there is value in both games, Arsenal and Southampton. I do like the handicap angle on both though. I like doing both the win market for Southampton and the handicap, and the outright handicap for Arsenal.

Quick question just for clarification, as i am confused by how similarly priced they are...

the Palace +1 handicap below is if Southampton win by 1, you get your stake back, but if it is a draw or better you win?

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/handicaps

But the Palace +0.5 asian handicap below is if you lose by one you lose it all and you need the draw or better?

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/asian-handicap

How is it they are effectively the same price? Clearly the normal handicap is so much better or am i missing something?

The top one looks like a three way handicap, so why would you get your stakeback?

Ah i ignored the tie aspect option then. Am I right in saying if there was only Southampton -1 and Palace +1 available, it would be a push at 1 nil to Palace or have a i dreamt that market up?

So in the three way handicap market the Palace +1 is the same as the asian handicap Palace +0.5?

Yup to Matt's views on Palace's they could be jaded, and having Delaney start instead of Tomkins or Dann at CB is a blow, but i would hope the solidity would still be there. With that in mind I still think there is value in the Palace price away to Southampton.

So I think 4k suited's tip is a bet if you want to go ahead with it, at £20 at 4/1 ish

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/winner

I would suggest going for £70 at evens or over on the asian handicap Palace + 0.5 as well or identical market, wherever you can get the best price, anything evens or over is fine.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/handicaps

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/asian-handicap

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/double-chance

On Fraser's tip. I would say the 5/1 is a good price on the win market. I would go about the same as above for finding a bet with the handicaps though as personal preference. I have no idea about draw no bet markets, i barely know what i am talking about with the markets i do like to bet on  . I would have to imagine it is value though and back that bet as well.

Before i get accused of going Palace crazy here, I have hardly spoke all season on them, they just look big in these games  

[TightEnd]

crikey very confused now

three different sets of palace tips.asians, handicaps,double chance,draw no bet.anyone for half time fulltime?

when is the game? tonight?

[DMorgan]

The rec is £70 Palace +0.5 @ 2.13 with Vic I think

Or £20 Palace win at 5/1 with bfsb

Edit:

Ant, there are Asian Handicaps and Euro handicaps. Asian you get your money back when its a tie but you can't back the draw in that market.

With euro handicaps you can back it to be a draw after the handicap is applied so no refunds

Southampton -1 euro handicap (they have to win by two) is best price  3.4 but Southampton -1 asian handicap (they win by two or more its a win, just by one its a push) is 2.59

Can anyone explain why the +0.5 asian handicap and +1 euro handicap are priced differently?

[TightEnd]

Fraser Palace DNB v the Arsenal is now 9/4 best. recommended 29/10 so i thoroughly missed the price,juggling all my balls and dropping a few

i am going to ask for alternatives now the price has gone

--

as for Southampton,not sure why we'd do the outright and the Asian +0.5.i glazed over mid report

the current outright is 4/1 best so doing that for now

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/winner


Crystal Palace Southampton v Crystal Palace Winner
4/1
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £100.00

[FUN4FRASER]

On the Palace bets I would say there is value in both games, Arsenal and Southampton. I do like the handicap angle on both though. I like doing both the win market for Southampton and the handicap, and the outright handicap for Arsenal.

Quick question just for clarification, as i am confused by how similarly priced they are...

the Palace +1 handicap below is if Southampton win by 1, you get your stake back, but if it is a draw or better you win?

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/handicaps

But the Palace +0.5 asian handicap below is if you lose by one you lose it all and you need the draw or better?

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/asian-handicap

How is it they are effectively the same price? Clearly the normal handicap is so much better or am i missing something?

Hi Ant

Hope you are well

Ill try and answer your question (s)

When backing the "normal /English handicap " market  there are 3 outcomes (home draw away )  https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/handicaps

So for example.....If you back Palace plus one goal it means

If Palace win the match 1-0 , by adding the +1 Palace goal the effective score is 2-0 so backing Palace is the winner

If the match is drawn say 1-1  by adding the +1 Palace goal handicap the draw becomes a 2-1 win so backing Palace is the winner

If Southampton win say 2-1 by adding the + 1  Palace goal handicap the Southampton win becomes a 2-2 draw so backing the Draw is the winner

For Southampton to win they need to win by two clear goals say Southampton win 3-1 by adding the +1 Palace goal handicap it becomes a 3-2 win so backing Southampton is the winner


When backing the Asian Handicap  effectively the draw is taken out of the equation   https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/asian-handicap

So for example ....when backing Palace plus 0.5 ( half a goal ) means

If Palace win the match 1-0 , by adding the 0.5 Palace goal the effective score is 1.5-0 so backing Palace is the winner

If the match is drawn say 1-1  by adding the 0.5 Palace goal handicap the effective score becomes a 1.5-1 win so backing Palace is the winner

If Southampton win say 2-1 by adding the 0.5  Palace goal handicap the Southampton win the effective score becomes a 2-1.5 win so backing Southampton is the winner

If Southampton win 3-1 by adding the 0.5 Palace goal handicap it becomes a 3-1.5 win so backing Southampton is the winner


In the two examples above its effectively  the same bet backing Palace +1  on The Normal/ English Handicap as betting Palace + 0.5 on the Asian Handicap however you will note the better prices are available in most cases on the Asian handicap , this is because there is a lot of liquidity in Asia as opposed to The Normal/ English handicaps that have been put together by UK bookies ( trying to create a better edge )

also in the Asian Handicaps you do get a lot of Draw = No Bet or "no result if a draw " so if you buy your team at 0 thats effectively DNB

Cliffs...Stick to The Asian handicaps as a general rule of thumb

Hope this helps

[FUN4FRASER]

Fraser Palace DNB v the Arsenal is now 9/4 best. recommended 29/10 so i thoroughly missed the price,juggling all my balls and dropping a few

i am going to ask for alternatives now the price has gone

--

as for Southampton,not sure why we'd do the outright and the Asian +0.5.i glazed over mid report

the current outright is 4/1 best so doing that for now

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/winner


Crystal Palace Southampton v Crystal Palace Winner
4/1
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £100.00

No problem Rich

Too many TFT readers either smashing the prices from the shadows or more likely the lol layers shortening them regardless   

[BigAdz]

More like two bets in 5mins on a side market causes alarm bells and flashing lights.

Not sure I subscribe to the idea traders sat here watching our every move. I know one of the Coral guys in the spotlight and he has never heard of TFT.

[FUN4FRASER]

On the Palace bets I would say there is value in both games, Arsenal and Southampton. I do like the handicap angle on both though. I like doing both the win market for Southampton and the handicap, and the outright handicap for Arsenal.

Quick question just for clarification, as i am confused by how similarly priced they are...

the Palace +1 handicap below is if Southampton win by 1, you get your stake back, but if it is a draw or better you win?

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/handicaps

But the Palace +0.5 asian handicap below is if you lose by one you lose it all and you need the draw or better?

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/asian-handicap

How is it they are effectively the same price? Clearly the normal handicap is so much better or am i missing something?

Hi Ant

Hope you are well

Ill try and answer your question (s)

When backing the "normal /English handicap " market  there are 3 outcomes (home draw away )  https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/handicaps

So for example.....If you back Palace plus one goal it means

If Palace win the match 1-0 , by adding the +1 Palace goal the effective score is 2-0 so backing Palace is the winner

If the match is drawn say 1-1  by adding the +1 Palace goal handicap the draw becomes a 2-1 win so backing Palace is the winner

If Southampton win say 2-1 by adding the + 1  Palace goal handicap the Southampton win becomes a 2-2 draw so backing the Draw is the winner

For Southampton to win they need to win by two clear goals say Southampton win 3-1 by adding the +1 Palace goal handicap it becomes a 3-2 win so backing Southampton is the winner


When backing the Asian Handicap   effectively the draw is taken out of the equation   https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/asian-handicap

So for example ....when backing Palace plus 0.5 ( half a goal ) means

If Palace win the match 1-0 , by adding the 0.5 Palace goal the effective score is 1.5-0 so backing Palace is the winner

If the match is drawn say 1-1  by adding the 0.5 Palace goal handicap the effective score becomes a 1.5-1 win so backing Palace is the winner

If Southampton win say 2-1 by adding the 0.5  Palace goal handicap the Southampton win the effective score becomes a 2-1.5 win so backing Southampton is the winner

If Southampton win 3-1 by adding the 0.5 Palace goal handicap it becomes a 3-1.5 win so backing Southampton is the winner


In the two examples above its similar prices backing Palace +1  on The Normal/ English Handicap as betting Palace + 0.5 on the Asian Handicap however you will note the better prices are available in most cases on the Asian handicap , this is because there is a lot of liquidity in Asia as opposed to The Normal/ English handicaps that have been put together by UK bookies ( trying to create a better edge )

also in the Asian Handicaps you do get a lot of Draw = No Bet or "no result if a draw " so if you buy your team at 0 thats effectively DNB

Cliffs...Stick to The Asian handicaps as a general rule of thumb

Hope this helps

I was trying to say similar prices (highlighted red)

[Chompy]

More like two bets in 5mins on a side market causes alarm bells and flashing lights.

Not sure I subscribe to the idea traders sat here watching our every move. I know one of the Coral guys in the spotlight and he has never heard of TFT.

Sounds likely tbf.

Then again Simon Clare said Coral never shut accounts, so who knows?