Tips for Tikay

[Marky147]

In our first at Meydan, Cavalryman finished 2nd, a shade unlucky it seemed to me, after being short of room when he made his run.

Anyway, we have  £25 Free Bet.

Adz's favourite horseman getting the jolly beat

The jockey was Arsene Wenger?

I had muted SS3, so missed all the steward's enquiry.

[tikay]

In our first at Meydan, Cavalryman finished 2nd, a shade unlucky it seemed to me, after being short of room when he made his run.

Anyway, we have  £25 Free Bet.

Adz's favourite horseman getting the jolly beat

The jockey was Arsene Wenger?

I had muted SS3, so missed all the steward's enquiry.

It was all very odd. The Trainer arrived (disrespectfully) late, sat there for 30 seconds, then made an excuse and left, only to return seconds later and say the Objection was withdrawn. Almost as if he was instructed to withdraw.

[Snowball]

Whats with the England drift here??
2.38 now

The match started at 1.30, so it was in-running movement I think

I posted it before ut started, drifted to 2.46 before a Ball was Bowled

[tikay]

Trumpet Major, no win, or even excuse.

[tikay]

In our first at Meydan, Cavalryman finished 2nd, a shade unlucky it seemed to me, after being short of room when he made his run.

Anyway, we have  £25 Free Bet.

Adz's favourite horseman getting the jolly beat

He's ridden another winner now, too.

[BigAdz]

Spencer riding em to sleep.


Still, I won't scuttle off when I'm proved wrong.

Here to take my medicine! Fire away.

[arbboy]

Stoke at 29/20 with 365 are just too big to beat hull at home.  Not sure whats caused this gamble on Hull today makes no sense.  Stoke have drifted from 2.15 to 2.45 and it's just too big.  The price implies Hull are a superior team to Stoke which on every measure they clearly are not.  Hull's keeper is also missing today as well.  Struggling to find reasons for this huge drift.  Stoke have had all week off to rest. Hull played a tough game in midweek reduced to 10 men on the road at West Ham.  I know this is all well known to everyone but i am struggling to see any reason why Stoke have drifted so much given they put in their best display of the season last weekend at Villa.
 
Recommend £50 Stoke 29/20 365. 6/4 betfair now.

Gulp........

Okay.........

Thanks. I think.

BET PLACED

You obviously know a lot about prices and far more than an idiot like me but how is "I'm struggling to understand the price" an argument for a £50 bet?

What would you suggest the drift is for? Have we got all the team news? Ireland might be back for Stoke but they're probably missing Pieters and Walters is suspended.

Help us mugs out and share your research, please.

We are currently working off a roll around £5k i assumed.  £50 is 1% of roll which is a standard bet for me.  Nothing super strong just a standard bet. I recommened £50 darts draw bets on Thurs which were 9/2 4/1 when i made them around a  7/2 shot. Backing a 6/4 shot which i make 11/10 or 6/5 is a similar edge and requires a similar bet.  Roughly speaking when two teams of equal ability in the EPL play the home team will be around a 6/5 shot to win the game.  This is what the opening prices for this game were and they looked spot on.  Since then all the above stated facts have occurred (Hull keeper injured, Stoke rested for a week, Hull played on the road away with 10 men).  All of these factors should make the Stoke price shorten imo. There isn't any positives for Hull in any of the above occurring since the opening prices were posted yet their price has contracted substantially. I am not in the school of thought there is no value to be had in EPL betting.  

Everyone has their own theory about value blah blah blah but my view is where the biggest amount of rec cash is punted there is always going to be value if you look hard enough for it.  A guy i used to work with at bet365 who has been a professional punter for years has routinely made decent margins betting EPL asian hcaps/3ways/totals for years and thinks it's one of the easiest league in the world alongside the Championship to make a decent margin out of.  Certain teams are far less backed than others.  Stoke have always been one of these teams ever since they arrived in the EPL 6 years ago.  Bolton were the same 10 years ago.

I cannot see any reason at all why Hull without their first choice keeper should be considered a superior side to Stoke who are playing their best football of the season at the minute (most stoke fan's will say that's because Walters is suspended and Stoke have played a much more attacking style of football without him). Adam is back for Stoke today from suspension.  The price implies if the season was starting today Hull would be expected to finish 4 or 5 points ahead of Stoke at the end of the season.  I don't think anyone could say Hull are a better side than Stoke on any standpoint.  Stoke are higher in the league, scored more goals, have more EPL experience.  Hull may very well win today but i think stoke are more likely than 40% likely to win today.  I would make stoke a 11/10 shot (48%) likely to win and therefore the edge i feel we have is clear to see.

I am more than welcome to listen to opposing views as to how Hull are a superior team than Stoke without their first choice goal keeper playing.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/26694309 - Team News.  I would consider with the exception of Robert Huth and maybe Adam this is Stoke's strongest side.

[tikay]

^^^^

That is all so logical.

[Tal]

Thanks, arbboy. I've had some stick for asking that question in the past, but my personal view is the thread is at its best when those who understand things explain them thoroughly. Betting in EPL outrights is counterintuitive for Fred, except when effectively opposing a very heavily backed team by backing a barely backed team, like we did with Liverpool last year. We called it (well, I called it) The Gravediggers Principle, for reasons we needn't explore today.

I'm yet to be persuaded it can extend to a game with two niche teams like Stoke v Hull, but that's just my cynicism, which should count for nothing for anyone else's purposes.

[Tal]

Well, someone's getting a new barn roof!

[arbboy]

Thanks, arbboy. I've had some stick for asking that question in the past, but my personal view is the thread is at its best when those who understand things explain them thoroughly. Betting in EPL outrights is counterintuitive for Fred, except when effectively opposing a very heavily backed team by backing a barely backed team, like we did with Liverpool last year. We called it (well, I called it) The Gravediggers Principle, for reasons we needn't explore today.

I'm yet to be persuaded it can extend to a game with two niche teams like Stoke v Hull, but that's just my cynicism, which should count for nothing for anyone else's purposes.

I am happy to explain in detail my thought process on anything i put up and more than happy for people to disagree with my views.  As Tikay said most of my stuff is logical.  I don't really see how you can expect to win gambling long term in any other manner.  You don't have to be persuaded about the Stoke Hull game.  If you think Stoke are a better or equal team to Hull then they are a bet at 6/4.  It's that simple.  I would struggle to find many level headed football fans who could honestly say Hull are a better team than Stoke right now with their 39 year old reserve goalkeeper being forced into action.

[Kmac84]

Opinions Please..

Kris Commons currently leads the way with 22 goals in SPL, Kris Boyd is on 19, with John Sutton on 18. Paddy Power have Kris Boyd (generously) priced at 9/1 to finish this seasons top scorer. Now, with Celtic already having the league wrapped up and Neil Lennon having previous for playing the youngsters or letting big name players go on holiday before the end of the season in this type of situation, coupled with Kilmarnock being in the bottom 6 who are for the most part rank, surely Kris Boyd is worth a score (or a bit more) at those odds?

I like this, but not for the reasons you state.  I like it because with Griffiths in the team Commons doesn't play as further forward as he did prior to his arrival plus of late the goals have been spread about via the 3. 

Lennon lets players on holiday before due to a cup final, Celtic don't have that this year.

[horseplayer]

Draw beat me/us

Seemed to run fairly well but hard to say really

Apologies

[Doobs]

A winner at last, Sterling City wins at Meydan. 

[nirvana]

A winner at last, Sterling City wins at Meydan. 

BOOM !