It's the biggest day of the campaign - Super Tuesday. Click to see full-size image. |
There are no winner-take-all States, but most of them have 10%, 15% or 20% thresholds, below which candidates don't receive any delegates, usually measured by district, but sometimes State-wide. Hitting 50% usually means a mega-bonus of delegates. If you are
really interested in the detail, here is a boring guide to the detail of how it works, State-by-State:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/super-tuesday-preview-republican-presidential-election-2016/Trump is ahead in almost all of the Super Tuesday States. The other candidates will still pick up delegates, but he will get wins, and the momentum could help propel him to further wins in the winner-take-all States coming up. Since Thursday's debate, the campaign has continued at the lowest common denominator, with both Rubio and Cruz adopting new basic (indeed questionable) anti-Trump tactics. They scarcely seem to be attacking each other at all now. It is more important for them to restrict Trump's lead than to worry about who gets those votes. Rubio has made a succession of Trump-style speeches belittling Trump's appearance and personality (which he had said he would never do). Cruz has said that Trump's reluctance to release his tax returns may be because he has extensive dealings with the Mafia.
Click to see full-size image. |
Rubio and Cruz gaze lovingly into each other's eyes after working together to double-team Trump.Cruz has to win Texas or he is cooked. He is ahead, though Trump is doing well and Rubio is also making in-roads. This is Bush country, and Rubio is collecting most of Jeb!'s supporters and some Bush donors have already switched to him. Texas has a large number of delegates, but they are shared, which isn't good for Cruz. He had hoped for 50%, but now he will settle for winning the State. He also had his eye on a bunch of other Southern States, but many evangelical believers are now indicating that they will vote for Trump.
Rubio and Kasich will also be expected to win their home States, but they are later in March. For now, Rubio badly needs a win. Anywhere would do, but there isn't an obvious one before Florida on 15 Mar. At least Florida is winner-take-all, so that will help. The latest poll shows that Trump has overtaken him by a distance even in Florida, which would be really wounding to lose. It could be the case that there is no State Rubio can win, though repeated strong second and third places could keep him in the race collecting delegates. He is very close to the 20% barrier in several States, so a key point to watch out for tomorrow is whether he is getting past it, as his delegate count will flounder if he doesn't.
Kasich is aiming at Michigan on 9 Mar and his home State of Ohio on 15 Mar, both of which are winner-take-all with a lot of delegates. Kasich says his plan is on course, but he was disappointed not to get Christie's endorsement and has admitted he will drop out if he doesn't win Ohio, though he won't have much choice.
Carson's team has already indicated that he will drop out after Super Tuesday.