Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

New Zealand v England Cricket, First Innings


Broad took SIX wickets. We don't like that.

McCullum was TOP SCORER with 69. This, we like very much.

£40 @ 9/2, down to Mr Gherkin, with additional help to choose which method to bet, by Tighty.   

[tikay]

2nd NZ v Eng Test

Brendon McCullum is in fine form at the moment and his last 4 scores against England (in the 3 ODIs & 1st Test) have been 69*, 74, 79 and 74.  England have really struggled bowling to him.  Not sure exactly how to play it... Top bat @ 9/2 looks a decent shout, although he bats at 6 in the test team putting him at a slight disadvantage.  Ladbrokes have him 5/6 to score over 28.5, Will Hill offer 2/1 to score a fifty and Stan James 9/1 for a century.  The first 2 are for the 1st innings, the latter is for both.

New Zealand aren't (quite!) as bad as everyone is making out.  Their recent away record is pretty dire but at home have only lost 1 of their last 5 test matches, 3 of which were against South Africa.  Obviously England should win but 1.7 is too short for me, especially factoring in the rain which is due on days 4 and 5.  I certainly wouldn't argue against anyone who suggested laying them at that price

Any cricket chaps around?

gherkin left it with us to decide how to get with Brendam McCullum.

I would like to do this, but we need to decide which route.

Personally, I'd take Route Nit, 5/6 to score over 28.5.

The runes are that this is a quick bouncy pitch

McCullum has named an unchanged team and said that if he wins the toss he will bowl

We'll see

McCullum is a great player of the short ball, more so than the top 3 imo

I think, if you wanted to support the recommendation, I would do

9/2 top bat for smallish money and hope the top order gets blasted out and McCullum counterattacks

The original recommend by gherkin, & note also the oh-so-accurate comment by Tighty.

Gentlemen, very well done, & thank you.

[tikay]

Daily Report @ 0820, Saturday March 16th


PROFIT on Month = £682.60

Outstanding bets £839



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=22

[TightEnd]

Broad's return to form is both unexpected and unfortunate. Running in well, good pace and not really in the plans of backing Anderson

That said, in so far as I could tell through the haze of half-sleep, Anderson bowled well, created a lot of the pressure that led to Finn and Broad wickets and is still in the hunt for that bet.Just needs his own 5 for day, which can happen. Some suggestions that Anderson has a side strain, but thems the breaks if thats correct. Injury is always a possibility for quick bowlers and can throw bets off course


England enforced the follow on 213 ahead. Because bad weather is expected Sunday/Monday they chose the only likely possible route to win, which was to bowl again whereas in other circumstances they might have batted for 2-3 sessions and hoped the pitch would wear

This all increases the likelihood of England not batting again in the game, and all to play for on the Trott bet for Auckland

[tikay]

Daily Summary, @ 0845, Saturday March 16th

We made a profit of £204 yesterday.

Completely focused on ending Cheltenham without damage, we got away with it & turned a small profit, & then, completely forgotten (by me) McCullum worked his magic overnight & we were able to add £180 to the numbers.

16 bets completed, one of which was a Freebie, 11 lost, & 5 won.

Excluding the Gold Cup (seperate summary follows) we lost on...

Tarla - taken as a loss now. -£11

Cheltenham Lucky15  -£30

Utopie des Bordes -£20

McCoy Top Jockey -£20

Wigan -£20

The winners - excluding the Gold Cup - were.....

Mullins, Top Trainer, BadBeat, £70

McCullum Top 1st Innings Bat, £180

[tikay]

Gold Cup


Dynaste, £10 win. -£10

Long Run, £25 win @ 7/1. -£25

Captain Chris, £10 ew @ 25/1 -£20

Long Run, £10 win @ 13/2 -£10

Long Run, £10 EW @ 10/1 +£15

Sir Des Champs, £10 win @ 6/1. -£10

Bobs Worth £20 win @ 4/1. +£80

Long Run LAY, £25 @ 5. +£25

Overall Gold Cup Profit = £45

[tikay]

Overall, we won slightly over £600 @ Cheltenham.

Most of that was down to Bookies Priority Offers, though our biggest win - Champagne Fever in the Champion Hurdle - had the selections chosen by, I think, Dubai & BadBeat. Cue Card (+£150) & Bobs Worth (+£80) & several others were also Priority Offers.

FRED the Tipster (essentially Priority Offers) ended Cheltenham with £585 profit, & an ROI of 92%. God bless the bookmakers.

[tikay]

Today sees the end of 6 Nations.

As far as I can see, we have two bets running.

Tualigi, Top Try Scorer, £10 @ 16/1

NO Grand Slam, £40 @ 13/8. I think this bet is really "Wales to beat England".

In the early hours of tomorrow morning, we have Hamilton to win the Australian GP, £25 @ 12/1. Today's 2nd & 3rd Qualifying was postponed after torrential rain flooded the circuit, & will now take place at Midnight tonight GMT, presumably live on Sky Sports F1.

I believe the Chess Candidates Tournament began yesterday, (we have £100 Carlsen at around 4/6) Simon will doubtless appraise us later. 

Various other interests today include cricket, New Zealand v England (Anderson Top Bowler) & India v Australia (Pujara Top Series Batter). In the latter, debutant Dhowan struck a magnificent century, & remains Not Out.

[Tal]

Morning, Fred.

I have to be brief, I'm afraid, this morning. Will be more detailed when I can.

All games were drawn yesterday, which is a good bit of news for us. First round was a bit cagey but we are fine with that. One of the toughest games on paper is out of the way without conceding ground.

Today, our man plays his other main rival with the White pieces. Kramnik is the man I think will be the closest to Carlsen. Draw fairly likely but I would be surprised if it were a quick one, as both back their endgame abilities.

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

Ireland v Italy today provides us with an opportunity for one of my favourite bets, the anytime try scorer. We have had success by backing Hogg and Gilroy previously. My crappy internet weather forecast says 8C and sunny in Rome. Previously I had highlighted Italy's bad defence from their own kicks giving wingers and the fullback lots of opportunities. Today I suggest backing Earls to score a try for Ireland. He should be favourite in this market as the left wing should be the top try scorer.  The reason for this is that most people are right handed and when passing a rugby ball from right to left the right hand is the dominant one and so passing this way is far easier for most people.

Suggest £15 Earls to score a try @ 9/4 Hills or Ladbrokes.

Then we come to the main match. England's whole approach seems to be to stop the opposition doing anything. It is awful to watch and they do not deserve a grand slam, but with Farrell's kicking and arbitrary refereeing they may do so. I  wouldn't be surprised if Farrell is not actually fit and has to go off and then you will see the panic in the England team. There are 2 prices that I think are wrong. The first is for Wales to win by more than 12 points which seems to be priced up in line with the match odds. But I can not suggest we back that.

The one market that I will suggest a small wager on is no try scorer, it goes against the fact that we are rooting for Tuilagi to score, but frankly there is so much pressure and the one thing that England are very impressive at is their rush defence. Coupled with centres who look for contact rather than space and Wales dreadfully slow halfbacks should give us  some value pie.

£5 no try scorer 16-1 in tons of places.

How is the new watch strap ?

[tikay]

Morning, Fred.

I have to be brief, I'm afraid, this morning. Will be more detailed when I can.

All games were drawn yesterday, which is a good bit of news for us. First round was a bit cagey but we are fine with that. One of the toughest games on paper is out of the way without conceding ground.

Today, our man plays his other main rival with the White pieces. Kramnik is the man I think will be the closest to Carlsen. Draw fairly likely but I would be surprised if it were a quick one, as both back their endgame abilities.

Excellent, thanks Simon.

If I recall correctly, his first two games were crucial, & if he holds his own in both, we are halfway there.

[Tal]

Morning, Fred.

I have to be brief, I'm afraid, this morning. Will be more detailed when I can.

All games were drawn yesterday, which is a good bit of news for us. First round was a bit cagey but we are fine with that. One of the toughest games on paper is out of the way without conceding ground.

Today, our man plays his other main rival with the White pieces. Kramnik is the man I think will be the closest to Carlsen. Draw fairly likely but I would be surprised if it were a quick one, as both back their endgame abilities.

Excellent, thanks Simon.

If I recall correctly, his first two games were crucial, & if he holds his own in both, we are halfway there.

It is a double round robin, so, like the Premier League, you play home and away (black and white) against everyone.

But you don't want to lose ground against your rivals. Carlsen played nicely yesterday and it was interesting that Kramnik finished quickly, suggesting he's up for a battle today.

It is quite possible that Carlsen - in fact, both players - will be happy with a draw and then look to score points elsewhere.

It is a long format and it requires a level of stamina some are (wrongly IMO) questioning whether Kramnik has. Carlsen has it on spades as he seems to draw energy from complicated positions. It is almost like they power him. When he loses, he absolutely hates it but he turns it into positive energy for his next game.

We should be pleased with ½ a point or more today. We would like Aronian not to win his game also.

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

Ireland v Italy today provides us with an opportunity for one of my favourite bets, the anytime try scorer. We have had success by backing Hogg and Gilroy previously. My crappy internet weather forecast says 8C and sunny in Rome. Previously I had highlighted Italy's bad defence from their own kicks giving wingers and the fullback lots of opportunities. Today I suggest backing Earls to score a try for Ireland. He should be favourite in this market as the left wing should be the top try scorer.  The reason for this is that most people are right handed and when passing a rugby ball from right to left the right hand is the dominant one and so passing this way is far easier for most people.

Suggest £15 Earls to score a try @ 9/4 Hills or Ladbrokes.

Then we come to the main match. England's whole approach seems to be to stop the opposition doing anything. It is awful to watch and they do not deserve a grand slam, but with Farrell's kicking and arbitrary refereeing they may do so. I  wouldn't be surprised if Farrell is not actually fit and has to go off and then you will see the panic in the England team. There are 2 prices that I think are wrong. The first is for Wales to win by more than 12 points which seems to be priced up in line with the match odds. But I can not suggest we back that.

The one market that I will suggest a small wager on is no try scorer, it goes against the fact that we are rooting for Tuilagi to score, but frankly there is so much pressure and the one thing that England are very impressive at is their rush defence. Coupled with centres who look for contact rather than space and Wales dreadfully slow halfbacks should give us  some value pie.

£5 no try scorer 16-1 in tons of places.

How is the new watch strap ?

Morning hector. I really don't know how your mind works sometimes, but it is a thing of wonder with many nooks & crannies.

I would clearly suck at Rugby, as I throw & catch left-handed.

Anyway, both bets are on, but we beat the price on Earls by going to Betfair, where we got 5/2.

The watch-strap? More bad news - the watch is currently not working, so is with a watchsmith right now. I feel so lost without it.

We have £15 @ 3.5, Betfair, Earls to score for Ireland v Italy @ 2pm today.

And £5 @ 16/1, Ladbrokes, NO TRY SCORER, Wales v England @ 5pm.

ON

Keith Earls (IRE) 3.5 £15.00 £37.50
Ref: 25841396408 Bet placed: 10:06 16-Mar-13


Selection16/1 - No Scorer

EventWales v England Six Nations Championship

MarketTo score a try at any time
 
Your bets (1)
 Single - No Scorer
1 line at £5.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £5.00
Potential Return: £85.00
Time: 16/03/13 10:14
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000290

[Matt.NFFC.]

I like the look (and feel) of the Under 1.5 goals in the Hull v Forest game today.

This game has got the potential to be a scrappy, nervy affair with Hull not wanting to lose and Forest hoping to keep their winning run going, which I fear will come to an end today.

Our strikers do not score, and haven't done for a while.  Our goals come from midfield, and we have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 and only conceded 1 each in the other 3.

Suggest a small nibble for £10 on Under 1.5 goals @ 12/5.

It may well give us a run.

[tikay]

Nothing to do with Cheltenham, but found a price for you on something i have suggested quite a few times and would appreciate some Wednesday fans chirping up here

Antonio is 11/1 first goalscorer v Cardiff, whilst priced up everywhere else about 8's.

The bookies still having labelled as a winger, but he is playing up front again and has opened the scoring numerous times in a match, probably around 4-5 times minimum & scored at other times too.

11-1 is a really good price, bookies still think he is winger, but likely striker at the weekend (again).

Suggest £10.

Hi Aaron, & thanks.

I have not forgotten this, but I'm still trying to get my head round the perceived value.

In my limited reasearch, I can't easily see how many times he opened the scoring, though I am not doubting your "4 or 5".

I can see that Sheffield Wednesday have played 36 games, & Antonio has scored 9 times in total, so an average of 1 game in every 4.   

I really don't know how to relate this to the price of 11/1 though.

Head-scratching will continue yet awhile, hopefully others will assist.