Tips for Tikay

[Ironside]

why has BT lost its address book though?  That's my real question.  What's caused this to happen?

happens a lot , it's like all tech stuff how often does something break and you have to turn it off and on again for no apparent reason

[arbboy]

Betbright still got 8/1 Colom top SA side.  A new account will get a £30 free bet and £625 at 8/1 (to take out £5k) so it's worth it.  Plenty to lay at 7.8 and 8.0 on betfair instantly with no wait for any of you arbers out there who like risk free cash.

[JoeBeevers]

Betbright still got 8/1 Colom top SA side.  A new account will get a £30 free bet and £625 at 8/1 (to take out £5k) so it's worth it.  Plenty to lay at 7.8 and 8.0 on betfair instantly with no wait for any of you arbers out there who like risk free cash.

Betbright: that market is suspended at the moment , Trading have confirmed this and that there is a strong likelihood the market will not again be available

Punter: It shows with prices on your website

Betbright: this is a display issue and will be removed shortly, apologies for the inconvenience

Edit: Now 6/1

[Chompy]

Not much we can do with Kingston Hill other than let him run. And hope that he does run obv.

Incred that the Curragh missed all the rain. Was good to soft at Tipperary on Thursday evening. Curragh watered last night to try and get Kingston to run. The main thing in our favour is that it's a Classic and the horse is already over there. Fingers crossed.

[DropTheHammer]

Mobiles only: Willys/Spoils are doing moneyback as a free bet on all televised Ch.4 racing today if your horse comes second - any value in the 14:05 on Muthmir to win, up to £25?

[Doobs]

World Cup betting
« Sent to: TightEnd on: Today at 03:04:03 AM »
   
I am sending this to you first as I am up late and if I put it on the board the BMU prices will be gone when you get up.  Please copy and paste on the board when you are done.

Just done a bit of maths on the World Cup each way and it is as expected with lots of value in the Argentina half.  Betting each way in the other half is terrible.

Betting on Netherlands is as good as betting on Argentina.  Betting on Mexico is significantly better though.  They are 33/1 in quite a few spots but onlly 11.5/12 to reach the final on Betair.  So you get 16.5/1 the place vs less than 11/1 on Betfair.

USA are OK too (40/1 the place vs 27/28 on Betfair).  Switzerland look really good (62.5/1 the place vs 28/30 on Betfair) and Greece are OK too (62.5/1 vs  36/38 on Betfair).  These prices are going to be less reliable though, so will keep stakes small for this lot even if the maths suggests these bets are even better.  You probably couldn't get much more on anyway.

Suggest starting with BMU, and trying to get £15 e/w on Switzerland at 125/1 and Greece £10 e/w at 125/1.  If you can only get 100/1 (available in a few spots) on Switzerland reduce the stake to £10 e/w and give Greece a miss.

USA are 80/1 in several spots, suggest £10 e/w.

Mexico are 33/1 in several spots, suggest £25 e/w.  I love the Mexico to reach the final part where we get 16/1, they are 37% to go through vs Netherlands, but after that they get what should be the easiest quarter final (Costa Rica or Greece).  The semi might not even be tough either as Argentina aren't nailed on to get past the Swiss and Belgium.  You can see similar with the Swiss, sure they are 20% to get throught this Argentina, but after that 60/1+ is going to look fantastic.

Netherlands are 8/1 betfred/tote/b365/betvictor suggest £35 e/w.  Try the Tote/baldfred/b365 before BMU because you have already got a couple of bets on there, and too many might be suspicious.

Belgium is OK too, but as we are on already, give that a miss and the Costa Rica price looks too low.

My bets were bigger than these, so you should be OK getting them on.  I am sure Tikay will understand when you tell him you have backed everybody.

Cheers

Doobs

The Swiss bet is better than I said in this post.  I realised after I sent it that you could have just backed the Swiss each way with BMU, laid off the place bet on Betfair and left yourself with a free win bet and got some change.  I don't usually arb, but for this that do. 

There wasn't a huge amount waiting to back Switzerland for the final, so I wouldn't go nuts.   FWIW I don't think the Betfair to reach the final price is wrong, it was pretty much bang on what I got by pricing the matches individually.  For instance, if the money all goes and you offer 33/1 somebody should take it. I'd certainly take some at that anyway. 

Just explain this a bit more.  You could have gone to BMU and put £10 each way on Switzerland.  You'd get £1260 back if they won and £635 if they reached the final.  You'd lose £20 if they didn't reach the final.  

You could have gone to Betfair and laid £20 at 30 on Switzerland to reach the final.  With this bet you lose £600 if Switzerland make the final and lose £20 if they don't.

Do both and you get £1260 if they win the World Cup and make £34 if they reach the final. You lose nothing if they don't make the final.  Well you'd lose a quid on the Betfair commission, so you should really lay £21 but you get the picture.

[arbboy]

Betbright still got 8/1 Colom top SA side.  A new account will get a £30 free bet and £625 at 8/1 (to take out £5k) so it's worth it.  Plenty to lay at 7.8 and 8.0 on betfair instantly with no wait for any of you arbers out there who like risk free cash.

Betbright: that market is suspended at the moment , Trading have confirmed this and that there is a strong likelihood the market will not again be available

Punter: It shows with prices on your website

Betbright: this is a display issue and will be removed shortly, apologies for the inconvenience

Edit: Now 6/1

Mrs Bandit been busy.  Shows the power of this thread given the fact the price has been there for over 2 days and they have laid at least 2 bets of £625.  Sort of makes you ask the question if you are the TD for betbright as to what your traders have been doing for the last 2 days.

[horseplayer]

tbf to bbright there have been numerous occasions in the top african market they have been up for parts of a whole day with massive arbs, literally every day the last week.

I no for a fact at least 3 people have got £500+ on at that price, not sure any other firms would let you get away with that

[arbboy]

They might have a great spreadsheet which tells them their price is right.  Gl to them.  Just hope they don't do the usual 'we deliberately went bigger than everyone in the world and held it for several days despite laying several limit bets then close you after one bet because we decided to go top by a mile, fucked up so we wont sack the trader for being clueless but we will punish the customers who have done nothing wrong and close your account'

[horseplayer]

I very much doubt that, to me it looks like they are obviously taking their own mans opinion.

From what i have seen they wont be doing it for much longer.

Even more strange is they reformed the market every morning once the betfair market was settled and busy enough

[arbboy]

Let's hope they keep winning and we keep hoovering the cash on bf and shipping them 90% of it and keeping 10% for ourselves!

[Tal]

Let's hope they keep winning and we keep hoovering the cash on bf and shipping them 90% of it and keeping 10% for ourselves!

I assume that's the chorus of the Arbboy National Anthem?

[arbboy]

I very rarely arb nowadays just on the major events where it's relatively easy to get big chunks on liquid markets with bad ew terms. 

[arbboy]

When do people think the majority of firms will go 1/3 12 ew terms on the WC outright market?

[claypole]

I think Monday morning for a few when 12 runners, but competitive nature means some may hold until last 8