Tips for Tikay

[Marky147]

Looks very good, given what's likely to turn up.

Think Fox Norton will turn up in the Ryanair, with Sizing John now almost certainly going to the GC.

[TightEnd]

QM Chase looks a good spot for an EW Antepost bet

Douvan is 1/3 Fav, Altior and Un De Seux look almost certain to run in Arkle and Ryan Air respectively.  Several of the others are also likely to run elsewhere and we likely going to be left with small field.

There are several old favourites that might run but they are either coming back from long absences, getting old or just in decline.

The only 2 solid ones look to be Fox Norton 10/1 and Gods Own 20/1.

I think the books have these the wrong way round - Fox Norton owes his position in market due to two visually impressive wins in hcap company and then a G2 race both at Cheltenham - Im not sure that form entitles him to be half the price of Gods Own here and suspect the Tizzard factor is being over valued.

He ran at the weekend finishing 2nd to Altior in 3 runner race - I know the race was all about Altior but it didn't look a good festival trial for Fox Norton and he eased in the betting slightly for this since.

Tizzard was also quoted as saying he might be more of a stayer so not impossible he will go else where as well

Gods Own on the other hand looks really solid... Ran 4th in this race last year but has won 2 G1's since at Aintree and Punchestown.. he's a proper good ground spring horse and is being saved for similar tilt at the festivals this year

He ran a decent race in the tingle creek in Dec not getting beat far on unfavourable soft ground and his trainer stated After race how pleased he was and it was his best start to a season, thought he was still improving - He said he would likely go straight to festival without a prep to avoid soft ground.

I can see this being <10/1 on the day and people talking about it being a great EW bet with a dead 8 runners and odds on jolly - 20/1 now is a fantastic price. 

We might get lucky and have less than 8 runners on the day or hit jackpot and Douvan doesn't turn up.

He is entered in the Ryan Air as well  but I don't think that's the plan but we have NRNB with 364 who are also 20-1 1/4 odds as security

This is a strong bet for me and I've got stuck in

Recommend anything up to 50EW @ 20/1 1/4 odd NRNB for Fred

Edit - If you like the bet I can help with 364

yes please

[TightEnd]

Any views on Dave Gilbert beating Ryan Day today in the first round of the Welsh Open?

Day lost in the final of the World Grand Prix in Preston last night to Barry Hawkins. He was 9-3 down and getting marmalised, before mounting a comeback (partly by going hell for leather and partly by the erstwhile sensational Hawkins seeing the finish line a little prematurely). Day got it back to 9-7, missed a routine red and lost.

That was a little after 9pm last night. Add some time for the post match bits and bobs.

He plays at 3pm today in Cardiff.

http://www.theaa.com/route-planner/index.jsp#fromNode=0%7CThe%20Guild%20Hall,%20Lancaster%20Rd,%20Preston%20PR1%201HT,%20UK%7C%7C-2.696730%7C53.759588%7CtoNode=0%7CMary%20Ann%20St,%20Cardiff%20CF10%202WT,%20UK%7C%7C-3.172549%7C51.478864

207 miles. 3 hours 45 mins.

Factor also that Gilbert is only 3 ranking places behind Day (excluding last night's win) and beat him in a best of 5 last month (and yes only a best of 5)

It must be a bit of a comedown for Day to be back playing so soon after an emotional night at the end of an intense week.

Prices (excluding the roffleriest bookies)

Day 8/11
Gilbert 11/10

I would expect this much closer to a flip.

Views?

If we like it, how about £30 on Gilbo with Chorals?

Obviously if anyone can get 5/4 with BMU, all the better and make it £32.

thanks, i missed it

was it a good spot?

[TightEnd]

I have been profitably backing Morcambe over last 5 weeks or so.

They have ownership issues but it doesn't seem to be affecting results.

On Tuesday night they are at home to Barnet. Long midweek trips for evening games in lower leagues have been discussed on here before.

Cant see a bitter cold evening by the sea in the north of England after a long journey being an appealing prospect for Barnet players.

For some reason, Barnet are 6/4 favourites. Looks all wrong to me.

Best price is on Morcambe is 21/10 with beteveryday.

Recommend £30 - I can place if it gets support/other views.

might be short of Morecambe opinions!

go ahead please and confirm back to me

[T_Mar]

QM Chase looks a good spot for an EW Antepost bet

Douvan is 1/3 Fav, Altior and Un De Seux look almost certain to run in Arkle and Ryan Air respectively.  Several of the others are also likely to run elsewhere and we likely going to be left with small field.

There are several old favourites that might run but they are either coming back from long absences, getting old or just in decline.

The only 2 solid ones look to be Fox Norton 10/1 and Gods Own 20/1.

I think the books have these the wrong way round - Fox Norton owes his position in market due to two visually impressive wins in hcap company and then a G2 race both at Cheltenham - Im not sure that form entitles him to be half the price of Gods Own here and suspect the Tizzard factor is being over valued.

He ran at the weekend finishing 2nd to Altior in 3 runner race - I know the race was all about Altior but it didn't look a good festival trial for Fox Norton and he eased in the betting slightly for this since.

Tizzard was also quoted as saying he might be more of a stayer so not impossible he will go else where as well

Gods Own on the other hand looks really solid... Ran 4th in this race last year but has won 2 G1's since at Aintree and Punchestown.. he's a proper good ground spring horse and is being saved for similar tilt at the festivals this year

He ran a decent race in the tingle creek in Dec not getting beat far on unfavourable soft ground and his trainer stated After race how pleased he was and it was his best start to a season, thought he was still improving - He said he would likely go straight to festival without a prep to avoid soft ground.

I can see this being <10/1 on the day and people talking about it being a great EW bet with a dead 8 runners and odds on jolly - 20/1 now is a fantastic price. 

We might get lucky and have less than 8 runners on the day or hit jackpot and Douvan doesn't turn up.

He is entered in the Ryan Air as well  but I don't think that's the plan but we have NRNB with 364 who are also 20-1 1/4 odds as security

This is a strong bet for me and I've got stuck in

Recommend anything up to 50EW @ 20/1 1/4 odd NRNB for Fred

Edit - If you like the bet I can help with 364

yes please

50ew booked

[RickBFA]

I have been profitably backing Morcambe over last 5 weeks or so.

They have ownership issues but it doesn't seem to be affecting results.

On Tuesday night they are at home to Barnet. Long midweek trips for evening games in lower leagues have been discussed on here before.

Cant see a bitter cold evening by the sea in the north of England after a long journey being an appealing prospect for Barnet players.

For some reason, Barnet are 6/4 favourites. Looks all wrong to me.

Best price is on Morcambe is 21/10 with beteveryday.

Recommend £30 - I can place if it gets support/other views.

might be short of Morecambe opinions!

go ahead please and confirm back to me

£30 is on at 21/10 with beteveryday

[Doobs]

Any views on Dave Gilbert beating Ryan Day today in the first round of the Welsh Open?

Day lost in the final of the World Grand Prix in Preston last night to Barry Hawkins. He was 9-3 down and getting marmalised, before mounting a comeback (partly by going hell for leather and partly by the erstwhile sensational Hawkins seeing the finish line a little prematurely). Day got it back to 9-7, missed a routine red and lost.

That was a little after 9pm last night. Add some time for the post match bits and bobs.

He plays at 3pm today in Cardiff.

http://www.theaa.com/route-planner/index.jsp#fromNode=0%7CThe%20Guild%20Hall,%20Lancaster%20Rd,%20Preston%20PR1%201HT,%20UK%7C%7C-2.696730%7C53.759588%7CtoNode=0%7CMary%20Ann%20St,%20Cardiff%20CF10%202WT,%20UK%7C%7C-3.172549%7C51.478864

207 miles. 3 hours 45 mins.

Factor also that Gilbert is only 3 ranking places behind Day (excluding last night's win) and beat him in a best of 5 last month (and yes only a best of 5)

It must be a bit of a comedown for Day to be back playing so soon after an emotional night at the end of an intense week.

Prices (excluding the roffleriest bookies)

Day 8/11
Gilbert 11/10

I would expect this much closer to a flip.

Views?

If we like it, how about £30 on Gilbo with Chorals?

Obviously if anyone can get 5/4 with BMU, all the better and make it £32.

thanks, i missed it

was it a good spot?

Delayed until 8pm I think. 

[arbboy]

Any views on Dave Gilbert beating Ryan Day today in the first round of the Welsh Open?

Day lost in the final of the World Grand Prix in Preston last night to Barry Hawkins. He was 9-3 down and getting marmalised, before mounting a comeback (partly by going hell for leather and partly by the erstwhile sensational Hawkins seeing the finish line a little prematurely). Day got it back to 9-7, missed a routine red and lost.

That was a little after 9pm last night. Add some time for the post match bits and bobs.

He plays at 3pm today in Cardiff.

http://www.theaa.com/route-planner/index.jsp#fromNode=0%7CThe%20Guild%20Hall,%20Lancaster%20Rd,%20Preston%20PR1%201HT,%20UK%7C%7C-2.696730%7C53.759588%7CtoNode=0%7CMary%20Ann%20St,%20Cardiff%20CF10%202WT,%20UK%7C%7C-3.172549%7C51.478864

207 miles. 3 hours 45 mins.

Factor also that Gilbert is only 3 ranking places behind Day (excluding last night's win) and beat him in a best of 5 last month (and yes only a best of 5)

It must be a bit of a comedown for Day to be back playing so soon after an emotional night at the end of an intense week.

Prices (excluding the roffleriest bookies)

Day 8/11
Gilbert 11/10

I would expect this much closer to a flip.

Views?

If we like it, how about £30 on Gilbo with Chorals?

Obviously if anyone can get 5/4 with BMU, all the better and make it £32.

Scheduling in snooker.  Love it Tal.  Totally outside of the box.  Great spot win or lose.  Huge factor travel wise and mentally draining having that comeback and doing all the media afterwards.  Reality is he drives himself down the M5/M6 and checks into a standard premier inn and has a bog standard nights sleep.  Terrible prep for a game physically and mentally.

Only negative for me would be Day being Welsh and might be fired up for the Welsh open and/or be staying with family or have family attending to fire him up.

[Tal]

Any views on Dave Gilbert beating Ryan Day today in the first round of the Welsh Open?

Day lost in the final of the World Grand Prix in Preston last night to Barry Hawkins. He was 9-3 down and getting marmalised, before mounting a comeback (partly by going hell for leather and partly by the erstwhile sensational Hawkins seeing the finish line a little prematurely). Day got it back to 9-7, missed a routine red and lost.

That was a little after 9pm last night. Add some time for the post match bits and bobs.

He plays at 3pm today in Cardiff.

http://www.theaa.com/route-planner/index.jsp#fromNode=0%7CThe%20Guild%20Hall,%20Lancaster%20Rd,%20Preston%20PR1%201HT,%20UK%7C%7C-2.696730%7C53.759588%7CtoNode=0%7CMary%20Ann%20St,%20Cardiff%20CF10%202WT,%20UK%7C%7C-3.172549%7C51.478864

207 miles. 3 hours 45 mins.

Factor also that Gilbert is only 3 ranking places behind Day (excluding last night's win) and beat him in a best of 5 last month (and yes only a best of 5)

It must be a bit of a comedown for Day to be back playing so soon after an emotional night at the end of an intense week.

Prices (excluding the roffleriest bookies)

Day 8/11
Gilbert 11/10

I would expect this much closer to a flip.

Views?

If we like it, how about £30 on Gilbo with Chorals?

Obviously if anyone can get 5/4 with BMU, all the better and make it £32.

thanks, i missed it

was it a good spot?

Delayed until 8pm I think. 

That's annoying on the one hand, although a long day waiting around isn't helpful for late night Ryan either. He will still have had to come down last night or early this morning.

Was definitely scheduled for 3pm per oddschecker and the Beeb. Presumably some matches overran and they've adjusted the schedule to push them back to a TV table..?

Happy to take feedback on the bet still if anyone has any. The 5/4 with BMU has gone, so it's 11/10 across the board (including Billy Mountains)

[arbboy]

Any views on Dave Gilbert beating Ryan Day today in the first round of the Welsh Open?

Day lost in the final of the World Grand Prix in Preston last night to Barry Hawkins. He was 9-3 down and getting marmalised, before mounting a comeback (partly by going hell for leather and partly by the erstwhile sensational Hawkins seeing the finish line a little prematurely). Day got it back to 9-7, missed a routine red and lost.

That was a little after 9pm last night. Add some time for the post match bits and bobs.

He plays at 3pm today in Cardiff.

http://www.theaa.com/route-planner/index.jsp#fromNode=0%7CThe%20Guild%20Hall,%20Lancaster%20Rd,%20Preston%20PR1%201HT,%20UK%7C%7C-2.696730%7C53.759588%7CtoNode=0%7CMary%20Ann%20St,%20Cardiff%20CF10%202WT,%20UK%7C%7C-3.172549%7C51.478864

207 miles. 3 hours 45 mins.

Factor also that Gilbert is only 3 ranking places behind Day (excluding last night's win) and beat him in a best of 5 last month (and yes only a best of 5)

It must be a bit of a comedown for Day to be back playing so soon after an emotional night at the end of an intense week.

Prices (excluding the roffleriest bookies)

Day 8/11
Gilbert 11/10

I would expect this much closer to a flip.

Views?

If we like it, how about £30 on Gilbo with Chorals?

Obviously if anyone can get 5/4 with BMU, all the better and make it £32.

thanks, i missed it

was it a good spot?

Delayed until 8pm I think. 

That's annoying on the one hand, although a long day waiting around isn't helpful for late night Ryan either. He will still have had to come down last night or early this morning.

Was definitely scheduled for 3pm per oddschecker and the Beeb. Presumably some matches overran and they've adjusted the schedule to push them back to a TV table..?

Happy to take feedback on the bet still if anyone has any. The 5/4 with BMU has gone, so it's 11/10 across the board (including Billy Mountains)

1.01 the organisers put the game back to 8pm like they do for tennis for the big seeds travelling from the previous weeks final.  The fact he is Welsh will have made this even more likely as he will sell more tickets further down the event.  Definitely a positive for Day having all day to sleep and rest and relax.

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/sevilla-v-leicester/winner

Only lolbrokes could cut Seville from 4/9 to 4/11 to qualify whilst at the same time cut leics to win the first leg!  lolbrokes!  Priceless.  #irrational.  wp loltraders.  Even merging lolbrokes and jokeoral together you are still a shambles.  Only decent football trader between the two firms goff and they let him go.  #Wave the white flag boys and give the game up.  Different era now.

[MattyHollis]

Any views on Dave Gilbert beating Ryan Day today in the first round of the Welsh Open?

Day lost in the final of the World Grand Prix in Preston last night to Barry Hawkins. He was 9-3 down and getting marmalised, before mounting a comeback (partly by going hell for leather and partly by the erstwhile sensational Hawkins seeing the finish line a little prematurely). Day got it back to 9-7, missed a routine red and lost.

That was a little after 9pm last night. Add some time for the post match bits and bobs.

He plays at 3pm today in Cardiff.

http://www.theaa.com/route-planner/index.jsp#fromNode=0%7CThe%20Guild%20Hall,%20Lancaster%20Rd,%20Preston%20PR1%201HT,%20UK%7C%7C-2.696730%7C53.759588%7CtoNode=0%7CMary%20Ann%20St,%20Cardiff%20CF10%202WT,%20UK%7C%7C-3.172549%7C51.478864

207 miles. 3 hours 45 mins.

Factor also that Gilbert is only 3 ranking places behind Day (excluding last night's win) and beat him in a best of 5 last month (and yes only a best of 5)

It must be a bit of a comedown for Day to be back playing so soon after an emotional night at the end of an intense week.

Prices (excluding the roffleriest bookies)

Day 8/11
Gilbert 11/10

I would expect this much closer to a flip.

Views?

If we like it, how about £30 on Gilbo with Chorals?

Obviously if anyone can get 5/4 with BMU, all the better and make it £32.

Scheduling in snooker.  Love it Tal.  Totally outside of the box.  Great spot win or lose.  Huge factor travel wise and mentally draining having that comeback and doing all the media afterwards.  Reality is he drives himself down the M5/M6 and checks into a standard premier inn and has a bog standard nights sleep.  Terrible prep for a game physically and mentally.

Only negative for me would be Day being Welsh and might be fired up for the Welsh open and/or be staying with family or have family attending to fire him up.

How much closer to a flip can you get than 11/10 if not the flip price? 21/20? Do we still bet there because we think it should be evens?

Yes I understand the thinking behind it but if you still make it a flip (in YOUR opinion) after all this information are you really betting him at 11/10?

[arbboy]

Any views on Dave Gilbert beating Ryan Day today in the first round of the Welsh Open?

Day lost in the final of the World Grand Prix in Preston last night to Barry Hawkins. He was 9-3 down and getting marmalised, before mounting a comeback (partly by going hell for leather and partly by the erstwhile sensational Hawkins seeing the finish line a little prematurely). Day got it back to 9-7, missed a routine red and lost.

That was a little after 9pm last night. Add some time for the post match bits and bobs.

He plays at 3pm today in Cardiff.

http://www.theaa.com/route-planner/index.jsp#fromNode=0%7CThe%20Guild%20Hall,%20Lancaster%20Rd,%20Preston%20PR1%201HT,%20UK%7C%7C-2.696730%7C53.759588%7CtoNode=0%7CMary%20Ann%20St,%20Cardiff%20CF10%202WT,%20UK%7C%7C-3.172549%7C51.478864

207 miles. 3 hours 45 mins.

Factor also that Gilbert is only 3 ranking places behind Day (excluding last night's win) and beat him in a best of 5 last month (and yes only a best of 5)

It must be a bit of a comedown for Day to be back playing so soon after an emotional night at the end of an intense week.

Prices (excluding the roffleriest bookies)

Day 8/11
Gilbert 11/10

I would expect this much closer to a flip.

Views?

If we like it, how about £30 on Gilbo with Chorals?

Obviously if anyone can get 5/4 with BMU, all the better and make it £32.

Scheduling in snooker.  Love it Tal.  Totally outside of the box.  Great spot win or lose.  Huge factor travel wise and mentally draining having that comeback and doing all the media afterwards.  Reality is he drives himself down the M5/M6 and checks into a standard premier inn and has a bog standard nights sleep.  Terrible prep for a game physically and mentally.

Only negative for me would be Day being Welsh and might be fired up for the Welsh open and/or be staying with family or have family attending to fire him up.

How much closer to a flip can you get than 11/10 if not the flip price? 21/20? Do we still bet there because we think it should be evens?

Yes I understand the thinking behind it but if you still make it a flip (in YOUR opinion) after all this information are you really betting him at 11/10?

Thin edges nowadays for the volume pros.  Not many seville v Leics high margin spots left.  Have to squeeze every edge you have.  Volume over margin nowadays for the pros.  Casinos have been making a tidy living for years with a 2% edge.  If you want to wait for 10%+ roi spots in 2017 you will have 5 bets a month and get £20 on each one then get your account closed.  Tough to pay the bills doing that.  Have to evolve or die.  Your roi will be great to brag about in the pub but you won't have any actual cash to buy a round as you couldn't get on.

Rather have £2k on a bet with a 2% edge than £200 on a bet with a 10% edge.  10%+ edges in 2017 are generally mythical prices which you can't get on for real money and lost leaders.

[Chompy]

Love the Gods Own spot. Snap up a chunk of 20-1 EW NRNB imo, should end up with the decent position.

[BigAdz]

Love the Gods Own spot. Snap up a chunk of 20-1 EW NRNB imo, should end up with the decent position.

Indeed

Betty unsportsbook also have 9/2 W/O Douvan 1/5. NRNB

Not sure of the maths comparison, but could end up fav in this market looking at the potential rivals