Cycling Betting & Discussion.

[Tonji]

Carlos Betancur, quite like your bet cws.

Great prospect, showed his potential in the Tour of the Basque Country. Negative is that it is his debut here, experience seems to be a common factor to do well here in recent years.

Dan Martin, rider I like a lot. Backed him in Catalunya, hoping for a podium & he exceeded my expectations. He crashed out in Amstel, I think with minor neck problems, but seems fine from his twitter comments. Had a fine 2012 in the Ardennes classics. I've got him EW in LBL. Think he needs this race to fine tune for sunday, but hope & think he will show well tomorrow. Good luck.

[Tonji]

Final thought from me on Fleche.

The Blanco team rode well at ASG, featuring in the breaks, & with two riders, Bauke Mollema & Lars Petter Nordhaug, in the final sprint for the podium places.

Bauke Mollema has been riding strongly this season with a number of podium finishes. 7th & 6th in 2012 at Fleche & LBL, he knows how to feature in the finals. PP go 66/1. I expected in the region of 33/1. My final EW bet for this race.

[cheapwetsuit]

Thanks for the info on the Fleche Wallone, Tonji. I've done a bit more research now, and if it all comes down to the Mur de Huy, I'm hoping that Sagan cramps up, Gilbert makes a move and runs out of steam, Rodriguez succumbs to his injuries, and Valverde slips a chain.

Realistically, Valverde and Gilbert have the best chances in this race based on pedigree. However, given the wall-like finish of stage 3 of the Tour of the Basque country, I'm going for Henao to win, with Betancur e/w. Henao was like a mountain goat on the 21% gradient there, and Betancur just never gave in. I agree with you that Martin may be holding out for Liege-Bastogne-Liege, but I couldn't resist an e/w bet given the form he is in. Mind you, I will probably back him in LBL as well.

And lastly, I've decided to have another e/w bet on Albasini. This race seems to favour previous nearly-rans, and given his second place finish last year, and his impressive form this year, he is hard to ignore. I'll owe you for that pick if he wins. Good luck tomorrow.

[Tonji]

Is underway.

Live on Eurosport 2pm.

[Tonji]

Giro del Trentino stage 1a yesterday was a bizarre one. A group of breakaway riders stayed away, with winner Maxime Bouet having nearly a 7 minute lead over the main contenders. Seems as if the big teams looked to Sky to bring back the breakaway, & they decided to sit on. Can't see how Boutet can lose from here, he's a reasonable climber. Overall bets are pretty much dead 

Interest now is really to just to monitor the form of Wiggins, Nibali et al ahead of the Giro.

[Tonji]

Thanks for the info on the Fleche Wallone, Tonji. I've done a bit more research now, and if it all comes down to the Mur de Huy, I'm hoping that Sagan cramps up, Gilbert makes a move and runs out of steam, Rodriguez succumbs to his injuries, and Valverde slips a chain.

Realistically, Valverde and Gilbert have the best chances in this race based on pedigree. However, given the wall-like finish of stage 3 of the Tour of the Basque country, I'm going for Henao to win, with Betancur e/w. Henao was like a mountain goat on the 21% gradient there, and Betancur just never gave in. I agree with you that Martin may be holding out for Liege-Bastogne-Liege, but I couldn't resist an e/w bet given the form he is in. Mind you, I will probably back him in LBL as well.

And lastly, I've decided to have another e/w bet on Albasini. This race seems to favour previous nearly-rans, and given his second place finish last year, and his impressive form this year, he is hard to ignore. I'll owe you for that pick if he wins. Good luck tomorrow.

Nice job cws, think you should have some profit somewhere in your tips. 

[cheapwetsuit]

Thanks Tonji. Pity Moreno decided to break up my party, but two out of four, and a double-up, isn't bad. Next stop, Liege.

[Tonji]

Liege-Bastogne-Liege. Sunday 21st.

Click to see full-size image.

I have a copy of this photo in my office, always smile at who is looking at the photographer!, click to see the large image & spot it 

[Tonji]

Giro del Trentino stage 1a yesterday was a bizarre one. A group of breakaway riders stayed away, with winner Maxime Bouet having nearly a 7 minute lead over the main contenders. Seems as if the big teams looked to Sky to bring back the breakaway, & they decided to sit on. Can't see how Boutet can lose from here, he's a reasonable climber. Overall bets are pretty much dead 

Interest now is really to just to monitor the form of Wiggins, Nibali et al ahead of the Giro.

Santambrogio looks sharp & strong, a good bet for stages & mountain jersey in the Giro.

Wiggins seemed comfortable & a match to Nibali in this stage.

[cheapwetsuit]

I agree. Santambrogio does look like a force to be reckoned with in the Giro. Unfortunately, he is not a great time-triallist, and will also suffer in the team time-trial, so I agree with you and will go for him in the King of the Mountains.

As for Trentino, I'm all at sea. I've got a fair amount on Nibali to win and change on Santambrogio to place. Sitting here now, I'm most confident in my Santambrogio bet.

Bouet gave everything yesterday and still finished 2'23 behind Siutsou. Even though today's mountain stage is not as taxing as yesterday's, I still see the pure climbers (read Wiggins, Nibali, Pozzovivo, Santambrogio, Evans, Rolland and Siutsou) putting some distance between themselves and the rest of the peloton. Whether they make up the gap to Bouet by Friday afternoon is one for the crystal ball. I'm guessing "yes".

Now, Siutsou won't be allowed to break again like he was yesterday. But he still has 29s on Wiggo, and 37s on Nibali. He won't lose that time today. Wiggins looks reasonably strong, and surprisingly Nibali failed to drop him on stage 2. Personally, I thought Nibali would try harder to shake the Sky man, but maybe he is saving something for the Giro. Santambrogio had a great last 2kms, but in my mind is too far off to threaten the lead (45s behind Siutsou/4:04 behind Bouet). Tomorrow's stage will suit a climber/descender like Cadel Evans, and if I didn't think a breakaway would have a chance here, I'd probably have a fiver on him e/w (14/1 @ Bet365 for anyone interested).

So, it all comes down to the final stage on Friday. A similar ending to yesterday, we'll probably get much the same result, minus the breakaway 8km from the finish. Who will win overall comes down to whether you think Bouet will hold his lead (he's talking about a podium place according to the press) or if he will be caught up in the next two days. Since I've already got two bets down, I'm going to be hedging with £10 on Siutsou to win the Giro del Trentino. Win-only, he is 7/1 @ Bet365. If you can get an e/w bet tomorrow for the same odds, jump at it.

[cheapwetsuit]

PS. I got Siutsou for overall @ 8/1. So I celebrated by going £4 e/w (1-2-3) on Evans to win stage 3 @ 16/1 and £2 on Omar Fraile to win stage 3 @ 100/1. He finished 5th from last yesterday, which is waaaaaaaay below his standards. Can only figure he fancies his chances in today's stage. Txurukka had his go yesterday. It's Fraile's turn today.

[Tonji]

I've written off Nibali at Trentino, plus he is down to ride LBL on sunday, so may be using the next few days as training?

Hoping Santambrogio can podium, we'll see.

No further bets for me on this, too distracted at work & with a little LBL research.

[vegaslover]

Giro del Trentino stage 1a yesterday was a bizarre one. A group of breakaway riders stayed away, with winner Maxime Bouet having nearly a 7 minute lead over the main contenders. Seems as if the big teams looked to Sky to bring back the breakaway, & they decided to sit on. Can't see how Boutet can lose from here, he's a reasonable climber. Overall bets are pretty much dead 

Interest now is really to just to monitor the form of Wiggins, Nibali et al ahead of the Giro.

That's probably something Sky need to do more of. The other big teams been feeding off skys efforts at the head of the peleton for too long.

[Tonji]

Giro del Trentino stage 1a yesterday was a bizarre one. A group of breakaway riders stayed away, with winner Maxime Bouet having nearly a 7 minute lead over the main contenders. Seems as if the big teams looked to Sky to bring back the breakaway, & they decided to sit on. Can't see how Boutet can lose from here, he's a reasonable climber. Overall bets are pretty much dead 

Interest now is really to just to monitor the form of Wiggins, Nibali et al ahead of the Giro.

That's probably something Sky need to do more of. The other big teams been feeding off skys efforts at the head of the peleton for too long.

Good point vegas, probably a warning ahead of the Giro that Sky are no longing going to be assumed to pull the peloton along.

[Tonji]

I've written off Nibali at Trentino, plus he is down to ride LBL on sunday, so may be using the next few days as training?

Hoping Santambrogio can podium, we'll see.

No further bets for me on this, too distracted at work & with a little LBL research.

ohhhh looking good for Nibali & Santambrogio