Cycling Betting & Discussion.

[Tonji]

Weather needs to improve for Wiggins as he seems to have lost all confidence in the wet.

Wiggins looks shot mentally and we haven't even got to the hills yet. How he thinks he  should be team leader ahead of Froome for TdF is laughable.

Sky need to go for broke imo and try to smash the peleton in first couple of mountain stages

I don't know how quickly a rider can regain confidence, maybe a few dry days in the mountains.

Rumours that Henao & Uran will be given a free roll to attack at the first opportunity.

Plenty of drama still to come, I'm lovin it.

Weather forecast is not good for the next week

http://www.ilmeteo.it/meteo-sport#giro

[Tonji]

Time constraints today & not had time to look closely at the stage betting.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/giro-ditalia/giro-ditalia-stage-10/winner

Breakaway has a chance if none of the riders are a threat. Colombians are likely to make a mark now we are in the big mountains, but which one, Atapuma?

If a GC group make the final climb, who will be looking for the stage win. Betancur looks strong still, & is always looking to attack when possible. Pozzovivo & Santambrogio will fancy their chances. Pozzovivo perhaps with better chances as he knows the area well.

Outsider, Gianluca Brambilla, he has shown his form has returned in finishing with the first group on the previous stage. Still think he is looking for stage win in the high mountains & a go at the KOM.

[cheapwetsuit]

I haven't found any OOL prices for Stage 10, but thought I might give my two cents worth anyway:

I can't really see beyond Santambrogio in this first of the high mountain stages. Vini Fantini have had an unsuccessful Giro so far, and Mauro will be keen to rectify that. One on one, up a decent gradient, he has the beating of anyone in the field ... even Nibali. I have had £10 e/w on him @ 6/1 (BetVictor), the e/w portion being my saver in case Nibali steps up, or a breakaway is allowed too much rope. I've also gone for Henao @ 16/1 (BetVictor), gambling on the rumour that Sky will allow him to attack Nibali on the climb up Altopiano del Montasio. Nothing like a 20% ramp to get the Colombian in the mood.

[Tonji]

I haven't found any OOL prices for Stage 10, but thought I might give my two cents worth anyway:

I can't really see beyond Santambrogio in this first of the high mountain stages. Vini Fantini have had an unsuccessful Giro so far, and Mauro will be keen to rectify that. One on one, up a decent gradient, he has the beating of anyone in the field ... even Nibali. I have had £10 e/w on him @ 6/1 (BetVictor), the e/w portion being my saver in case Nibali steps up, or a breakaway is allowed too much rope. I've also gone for Henao @ 16/1 (BetVictor), gambling on the rumour that Sky will allow him to attack Nibali on the climb up Altopiano del Montasio. Nothing like a 20% ramp to get the Colombian in the mood.

Yep, can't disagree cws. An open stage for sure. Pozzovivo edges it for me purely on his local knowledge & perhaps being less marked than Santambrogio.

Weather is set fine today I believe, so should look spectacular.

[Dubai]

Are they not worth betting @6.5/1 and 10.5/1 respectively?

[Tonji]

Are they not worth betting @6.5/1 and 10.5/1 respectively?

I guess if you took the view they are the two favourites, but I see this stages as too open to call. Circa 30-40% chance a breakaway succeeds imo. 10 GC riders with a chance, but really unknown form coming out of a rest day & into the high mountains.

I've taken Pozzovio @ 18/1 last night, thinking that price has some value considering his local knowledge. I'm also liking Brambillia @ 66/1, good chance he can make it in a breakaway group, but if not he should be able to compete with the final GC group.

Just the way I approach stage betting Dubai, not a lot of maths, just my opinion, based on some knowledge & race scenarios.

[Tonji]

Well Pozzovivo gave it a go, but never looked like he could make it stick. Brambillia, over 20 minutes back 

Unlucky cws, wrong Sky Colombian. I can't make up my mind if Santambrogio was hanging on, or biding his time for another day?

Betancur is still frisky, two 2nds. Tomorrow maybe one better?

Garmin have imploded, riders stayed to support Hesjedal. Team classification zero chance now, & Danielson bet for top 10 decimated. 

[Tonji]

Work a bit busy to look at betting opportunities.

Anyone else fire away.

[Tonji]

stage 12.

[Tonji]

Longest stage of the race at 254 km. With more rain forecast & tough mountain stages over the weekend I'd think there is a >50% chance of a breakaway succeeding.

Plenty of big prices available for this open stage. I've looked for Italians looking for the opportunity for the stage win & well out of GC contention. However with many sick riders & teams its a pick-em

Gatto, was sick earlier in the race, but finished in the main bunch today so hoping he's recovered. 33/1

Pozzato, must purely be racing for a stage win, this looks like an opportunity. 33/1

Nizzolo, 4th today & stage 1. He's a decent sprinter who doesn't suffer in the hills. 66/1

[Tonji]

Cav clocked up his 101st pro win with a gutsy ride over the final climbs when most of the other sprinters were dropped.

Nizzolo weighed in nicely with an impressive 2nd.

Gatto was in the final attack 20km to go, but that always doomed.

Pozzato, puzzled as usual, looking like he was going to get dropped on the run in, but was 8th & in the mix 

[Tonji]

Some stuff about the rain on stage 12, & Brian Holm talking about "fat boy" Cav.

[Tonji]

Stage 14, back in the high mountains. Snow is forecast, so there could be a late decision on route changes.

The initial breakaway group is likely to include Pirazzi looking to protect his KOM jersey. The make up & size of this group will set the tone of the stage.

Favourites in the GC riders must be Betancur. He has great form, but has yet to win a race this year. He'll be motivated to change that.

Betancur's teammate Pozzovivo attacked in stage 10 but never made it stick. I'd read his bike was wrongly geared. If that was the case he can possibly use Betancur's inevitable attack to launch a counter that may be successful 1km from the finish.

Click to see full-size image.

Sky now pin hopes of overall with Uran. They will certainly attack over the next two days, but he won't find it easy to get away. Henao or Cataldo may get the chance on the final climb.

Gesink & Santambrogio have both been solid without showing any attacking intent. The next two stages could be the time for them to move into the top 3.

Nibali only has a 41 second lead over Evans. With time bonuses at the finish, he will want to gain valuable time without risking too much. Tactically he's not made a mistake yet, if its dry I think he'll go on the offensive if he sees the opportunity.

Outsider. Stefano Garzelli, a past KOM winner. He's not shown much so far, but the old war horse will be looking for one last Giro stage win.

[Tonji]

Sundays stage over Mont Cenis & up the Col du Galibier is almost certainly going to be altered due to snow & avalanche warnings  

Click to see full-size image.

[MahoganyVic]

Cheers for the continued updates Tonji - a very enjoyable read/watch as usual!