***** Hand History for Game 3579485135 ***** (IPoker)
$400.00 USD PL Omaha - Wednesday, January 02, 11:50:16 ET 2013
Table Hosen (No DP 50 bb min) (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Seat 1: THEDONKDONK ( $451.36 USD )
Seat 3: bhxk798 ( $673.50 USD )
Seat 5:
HERO ( $545.10 USD )
Seat 6: PlayWithMeAgain ( $1236.90 USD )
Seat 8: Hapycamp ( $402.00 USD )
Seat 10: MrTuuuuurn ( $400.00 USD )
Hapycamp posts small blind [$2.00 USD].
MrTuuuuurn posts big blind [$4.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to
HERO [
]
THEDONKDONK raises [$14.00 USD]
bhxk798 folds
HERO calls [$14.00 USD]
PlayWithMeAgain folds
Hapycamp folds
MrTuuuuurn calls [$10.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [
,
,
]
MrTuuuuurn checks
THEDONKDONK bets [$33.00 USD]
HERO raises [$104.00 USD]
MrTuuuuurn folds
THEDONKDONK calls [$71.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [
]
THEDONKDONK checks
HERO bets [$178.00 USD]
I think this is really interesting. This opponent playing 38(Vpip) 11(PFR), he limps 25% early position and raises 9% (so we assume he has very good hand PF when he pots UTG)
Will explain this hand a little further see if I can't "poke the fire"
and try back it up with some maths, you'll have to excuse me though I'm kinda bad with this stuff, and this is the first time I've done it.
Pre-flop is very stnd vs a player with these stats, he's raising 9% UTG (JUST AA** combo's - all of which we assume he'll open - account for nearly 3% of hands, so we can actually assume pretty accurately that he'll have AA** around 33% of the time here) so 3betting seems kinda pointlless when a third of the time he'll 4bet and we'll fold, calling, hoping to go multi-way and hitting a king is imo the better play here, imo - if anyone wants to make an argument for 3bet/folding then go for it! That's an argument that can be made as well - I could certainly be convinced (I think).
The other make-up off his 9% range UTG (obviously we aren't super accurate here, he might well value hands differently to what is mathematically correct, I myself am always surprised with certain hands ranked above others in "order") is made up of ~11,000 combo's and the vast majority of these are A[KK-JJ]X hands (big pairs with an Ace and a suit) AK[Q-J]X with n ace high suit, KQJT type hands and connected double pairs - if anyone is overly interested and board and would like to the entire range, then I have copied it our for you here!
So it's a fortunate spot because its very easy to accurately assign a pretty easy to calculate PF range, the same of hands I have is 2,600~ which if you account for the times we'll have played 3-5 handed prolly gives us around 500 UTG situations, we can be fairly confident that our assumptions on his range are at the very least somewhere in the right direction.
So, using the range 7%!AA**, AA**(this basically means top 7% excluding AA combos, and ALL AA** combo's - the reason imputing it this way is more reliable than just doing a straight 9% is that bizarrely not every AA combo is a top 9% hand (although that could be wrong, but if you're ever doing 4 or 5% ranges you must do it like this, every AA combo will be opened,but all hands in "top X% excluding AA" will aswell so a (e.g.) 6% range is often more hands than an actual top 6% range, if that makes sense) I've increased from 6 to 7% as I think it'll likely be wider than my stats suggest for a player who is quite a lot loser in later positions and I know the loser the pre-flop range the more pressure it'll put on the play that I made mathematically)
A straight equity run of the flop spot.
ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.05 Professional)Omaha Hi, Generic syntax
Board -
PLAYER_1 7%!AA**, AA**
PLAYER_2 KcKsJc8h
600000 trials (randomized)
All-in Equity
We only need 30% to profitably continue (slightly more ofc, due to the risk of the player behind) but either way we've got plenty of equity, were IP, the pot-to-stack ratio will still be 3.5+ on the turn and our range certainly hits this flop a little more "in the face" than our opponents, what this meas ofc is that this really is a great spot to JUST CALL, most of the striaght cards (7's and 9's in specific) are great cards for us to barrel and J's, 8's, K's l give us the best hand (almost certainly), clubs are good to bet as are T's if we are checked to + ofc we have the option to pot control/showdown if we deem it nessercary.
This is why calling is the "stnd" play, it's unquestionably a profitable move.
Maldini you said this
Second hand, its probably my weakest are of my PLO game. When I call a raise with aces/kings or queens and the board is similar to that when I c-bet they raise and ive gotta bin it or they'll call and unless i hit a helpful turn card (draw/set) Im just pissing money away.
Actually I'm going to disagree (although I certainly agree that it feels that way when you just bin one bet off and the turn is a sort of guessing game and you have to fold) It's not actually pissing money away in this example - once he bets the turn again this affects two things, firstly his range is now a lot stronger (he'd chk/fold the bottom X% of his range) which means, secondly, now we need a much stronger hand from our range to continue with - if you look at how his equity increases on each turn card
ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.05 Professional)Omaha Hi, Generic syntax
Board -
PLAYER_1 AA**, 7%!AA**
PLAYER_2 KcKsJc8h
600000 trials (randomized)
Equity breakdown by turn card for PLAYER_1| Click to see full-size image. |
Now are KK becomes a very desirable hand to fold (and remember we ARE going to have to fold some hands, some of the time on the turn in this spot)
Whereas this all provides a very good argument for calling, as the optimal play I'm going to try explain why, in game, I thought this might be a good spot to raise - then try back it up.
Knowing what I know about his PRE-FLOP range, and this is a fortunate example because his stats are very simple, I felt OTF that his range was dominated by high cards, Aces and other big pairs, whereas he certainly has combo's of sets and big wraps in his pre-flop range they make up a very small % of it. I also felt that I was likely "behind" to his range at this moment, if i'd have guessed I'd have said 40/60~ prolly (sick brags I
) I also know I'd be venreable to getting bet off my hand by something like QQ or AK*T (not that this is an exploitation of me, as my range is plenty strong enough on a variety of turn cards to not give him an easy bet with his OP's) I also know that I'm completely obligated to bet most turns that are checked to me and turn my hand into a "bluff."
In short against a range which is extremely unlikely to have better than 1 pair, with a hand that I am forced to bluff with a high% of the time from the turn onwards, I thought - let's try and turn it into a bluff NOW - we're 3 handed (which gives my line additional credibility) IT IS possible to be called by a hand with +/- 5%equity which is also great in position, and there is the distinct possibility of our flop raise being called and folding to our turn bet (obviously you have to counter this "value" with the times your turn bet gets called and you lose, or you get shipped on and fold where you lose more than you would with an unsuccessful call/bet line, but still given how weak is ACTUAL hand range is I think this is a worthy consideration.
ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.05 Professional)Omaha Hi, Generic syntax
Board -
PLAYER_1 AA**, 7%!AA**
PLAYER_2 KcKsJc8h
600000 trials (randomized)
What is
the flop hand category for PLAYER_1
This graph shows us what "catorgory" of hands our opponent will have how much of the time, as you see my intial (pretty simple lets be honest) thoughts in game were correct and his range is dominated by OP's, of which will have quite stagnant equity for the most part (as in, vs an open range of hands there perceived equity will decrease on a high % of turn cards) giving us significantly more fold equity on the flop, and, importantly if we're to argue this line over calling, on the turn.
ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.05 Professional)Omaha Hi, Generic syntax
Board -
PLAYER_1 AA**, 7%!AA**
PLAYER_2 KcKsJc8h
600000 trials (randomized)
How often do(es)
PLAYER_1 flop hand category at least bottomtwo6.3283% (37970)
As this shows, we expect to be facing a hand 84 (84 extremely unlikely ofc) or better 6.3% of the time, which again considering how well our range pre-flop connects with this board gives us a spot where (to coin a JB expression) I think we really can "exploit a weak range"
I do feel however, that this is a spot where this specific players weak EP stats have really made this play an easy one for me, (still not saying it's correct) but even in-game I was able to make some very accurate assumptions about his range. This is defo something to consider during analysis of your own game (maybe not so much with the EP opening range as that is very difficult always) but you really wanna try and build ranges in spots that AREN'T going to be easily and quickly basically analsyed by an opponent who is competent reading these stats.
As a development from this post - I have considered for a while a strategy where I limp 100% of hands I wanna play (typically ~11% for me, but would need to be a bit tighter, lets say for e.g. 6-7%) from UTG, and never limp 3bet unless it's to squeeze (limp, iso, call, call etc) or when i can 4bet for high % of my stack with something I wanna do that with. I think its a very interesting idea but yet to have the balls to implement it
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