The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[arbboy]

I think I've made it clear I'm not a big fan of the current Labour line up, and while I have observed people on all sides of the political spectrum claim the BBC is biased against them, I must admit they have seemed a little biased against JC since the election started. Not massively and maybe I am biased by my biased labour supporting friends, but a bit.

It the low hanging fruit example.

Making yourself look good, is easy at JCs expense because he leaves himself so wide open on so many topics, thats why the Journos go for him.

To be honest, I have never seen Dermot so well informed before I saw the clip Tighty posted, but if you know you can make yourself look so good, so easily, he probably put in the extra time, knowing it would more than likely pay off.......and it did.

There is definitely something in this as well.  Plenty of people are trying to make a name for themselves ironing out some of these clueless political guessers parading as top statesmen.  

[kukushkin88]

this is blood curdlingly embarrassing

i could hardly watch

the little clasp of dermot's hand when he realises he's got her is delicious

could be home secretary on Friday...(Diane, not Dermot)

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/06/watch-diane-abbotts-disastrous-turn-sky-news/

The Tories have hidden Leadsom and Hunt all campaign.

Why haven't Labour done the same with Abbott?

labour have hidden McDonnell too (apart from week 1)

I find the Abbott thing baffling.

It, her potential to be home secretary in the current security environment, might cost them a lot of votes

not saying Boris etc aren't liabilities either but Abbott? chairing cobra? come on...what IS Corbyn thinking of?

His dick is doing the talking one would imagine from 40 years ago!  You only have to have watched this week on a Thursday night for years after QT with Brillo and Choo Choo when Abbott was on there and Choo Choo struggled to keep a straight face at times with some of the nonsense Abbott used to spout.  It is mind bending she could actually have one of the top 4 government jobs next week.

She literally couldn't come across as any less competent, just horrible to watch on a human level. She appears to have literally no clue.

[arbboy]

this is blood curdlingly embarrassing

i could hardly watch

the little clasp of dermot's hand when he realises he's got her is delicious

could be home secretary on Friday...(Diane, not Dermot)

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/06/watch-diane-abbotts-disastrous-turn-sky-news/

The Tories have hidden Leadsom and Hunt all campaign.

Why haven't Labour done the same with Abbott?

labour have hidden McDonnell too (apart from week 1)

I find the Abbott thing baffling.

It, her potential to be home secretary in the current security environment, might cost them a lot of votes

not saying Boris etc aren't liabilities either but Abbott? chairing cobra? come on...what IS Corbyn thinking of?

His dick is doing the talking one would imagine from 40 years ago!  You only have to have watched this week on a Thursday night for years after QT with Brillo and Choo Choo when Abbott was on there and Choo Choo struggled to keep a straight face at times with some of the nonsense Abbott used to spout.  It is mind bending she could actually have one of the top 4 government jobs next week.

She literally couldn't come across as any less competent, just horrible to watch on a human level. She appears to have literally no clue.

She loves playing the race card/woman in politics card/i am from poor hackney card all the time on TV but the reality is without all of these things she wouldn't be anywhere near where she is now in her career if she was a white, middle class, middle aged man educated privately.  She has used all of these factors to get where she is, as well as sleeping with the boss 40 years ago.  She is a classic example of giving women/ethnic minorities/working class people jobs they are not educated and qualified to do because of political correctness.

[Magic817]

this is blood curdlingly embarrassing

i could hardly watch

the little clasp of dermot's hand when he realises he's got her is delicious

could be home secretary on Friday...(Diane, not Dermot)

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/06/watch-diane-abbotts-disastrous-turn-sky-news/

The Tories have hidden Leadsom and Hunt all campaign.

Why haven't Labour done the same with Abbott?

labour have hidden McDonnell too (apart from week 1)

I find the Abbott thing baffling.

It, her potential to be home secretary in the current security environment, might cost them a lot of votes

not saying Boris etc aren't liabilities either but Abbott? chairing cobra? come on...what IS Corbyn thinking of?

Everyone seems to find the Abbott thing baffling. I don't understand how she can be so under prepared for interviews. There will always be the odd question that surprises but she doesn't seem to have basic information to hand. Either get her away from the cameras or make sure she is prepared.

[Woodsey]

this is blood curdlingly embarrassing

i could hardly watch

the little clasp of dermot's hand when he realises he's got her is delicious

could be home secretary on Friday...(Diane, not Dermot)

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/06/watch-diane-abbotts-disastrous-turn-sky-news/

The Tories have hidden Leadsom and Hunt all campaign.

Why haven't Labour done the same with Abbott?

labour have hidden McDonnell too (apart from week 1)

I find the Abbott thing baffling.

It, her potential to be home secretary in the current security environment, might cost them a lot of votes

not saying Boris etc aren't liabilities either but Abbott? chairing cobra? come on...what IS Corbyn thinking of?

His dick is doing the talking one would imagine from 40 years ago!  You only have to have watched this week on a Thursday night for years after QT with Brillo and Choo Choo when Abbott was on there and Choo Choo struggled to keep a straight face at times with some of the nonsense Abbott used to spout.  It is mind bending she could actually have one of the top 4 government jobs next week.

She literally couldn't come across as any less competent, just horrible to watch on a human level. She appears to have literally no clue.

She loves playing the race card/woman in politics card/i am from poor hackney card all the time on TV but the reality is without all of these things she wouldn't be anywhere near where she is now in her career if she was a white, middle class, middle aged man educated privately.  She has used all of these factors to get where she is, as well as sleeping with the boss 40 years ago.  She is a classic example of giving women/ethnic minorities/working class people jobs they are not educated and qualified to do because of political correctness.

Oooff.....get in there Arbs 

[TightEnd]

Latest survation poll has Tory lead down to 1%. I know the polls are all over the place and don't mean too much.

However nobody would have thought a poll like that was possible a month ago. Shows just how poor this Tory campaign has been.

Would not be surprised of TM didn't last more than 6 months as PM if she gets relected.

the survation poll has an assumption,it has turnout of 18-24s in the 90% range

now it may happen,but thats why its so close

it also has 15% of the labour vote coming from 2015 non voters, which at least sounds plausible

you gov meanwhile has Con 22 seats short of a majority

now it may happen, but it also assumes a youth turnout figure, this time 75%

in 2015 18-24yo vote percentage was 43%

corbyn has clearly energised non voters/young voters but thats what you need to make this close

--

on the ground,

a) particularly in leave seats in the north, activitists are saying it is not even close. forecasts of labour down at 180 seats

b) london, reports of surges of labour votes (problem though,into many safe labour seats)

so it could be a very mixed and exciting night

--

the you gov (you gov have tory links) poll saying hung is a big call,if  they are right they are "the" pollster going forward, if wrong then its a "wtf"moment

[Doobs]

this is blood curdlingly embarrassing

i could hardly watch

the little clasp of dermot's hand when he realises he's got her is delicious

could be home secretary on Friday...(Diane, not Dermot)

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/06/watch-diane-abbotts-disastrous-turn-sky-news/

The Tories have hidden Leadsom and Hunt all campaign.

Why haven't Labour done the same with Abbott?

labour have hidden McDonnell too (apart from week 1)

I find the Abbott thing baffling.

It, her potential to be home secretary in the current security environment, might cost them a lot of votes

not saying Boris etc aren't liabilities either but Abbott? chairing cobra? come on...what IS Corbyn thinking of?

His dick is doing the talking one would imagine from 40 years ago!  You only have to have watched this week on a Thursday night for years after QT with Brillo and Choo Choo when Abbott was on there and Choo Choo struggled to keep a straight face at times with some of the nonsense Abbott used to spout.  It is mind bending she could actually have one of the top 4 government jobs next week.

She literally couldn't come across as any less competent, just horrible to watch on a human level. She appears to have literally no clue.

She loves playing the race card/woman in politics card/i am from poor hackney card all the time on TV but the reality is without all of these things she wouldn't be anywhere near where she is now in her career if she was a white, middle class, middle aged man educated privately.  She has used all of these factors to get where she is, as well as sleeping with the boss 40 years ago.  She is a classic example of giving women/ethnic minorities/working class people jobs they are not educated and qualified to do because of political correctness.

Oh come off it.  If anyone loves playing the race/political correctness card it is you.

As I have said before, both front benches are as weak as I can remember.  Both May and Corbyn are pretty low down in the best leader lists for their parties.  Liam Fox and David Davis have had positions at the top way too long.  Andrea Leadsom seems to be devoid of any talent.  I could go through the labour front bench pretty easily too.  Abbott is just one of many.

[buffyslayer1]

Latest survation poll has Tory lead down to 1%. I know the polls are all over the place and don't mean too much.

However nobody would have thought a poll like that was possible a month ago. Shows just how poor this Tory campaign has been.

Would not be surprised of TM didn't last more than 6 months as PM if she gets relected.

the survation poll has an assumption,it has turnout of 18-24s in the 90% range

now it may happen,but thats why its so close

it also has 15% of the labour vote coming from 2015 non voters, which at least sounds plausible

you gov meanwhile has Con 22 seats short of a majority

now it may happen, but it also assumes a youth turnout figure, this time 75%

in 2015 18-24yo vote percentage was 43%

corbyn has clearly energised non voters/young voters but thats what you need to make this close

--

on the ground,

a) particularly in leave seats in the north, activitists are saying it is not even close. forecasts of labour down at 180 seats

b) london, reports of surges of labour votes (problem though,into many safe labour seats)

so it could be a very mixed and exciting night

--

the you gov (you gov have tory links) poll saying hung is a big call,if  they are right they are "the" pollster going forward, if wrong then its a "wtf"moment

Thanks for the detail on this, explains why you have such vastly different polls when the methodology is so different.

I still think Tories will win with a smaller majority than they liked, but they really must have been assuming a massive majority at the start of the campaign. Wonder how much closer it would be if JC had the full support of the more centrist MPs in the party for the last 18 months....

[arbboy]

this is blood curdlingly embarrassing

i could hardly watch

the little clasp of dermot's hand when he realises he's got her is delicious

could be home secretary on Friday...(Diane, not Dermot)

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/06/watch-diane-abbotts-disastrous-turn-sky-news/

The Tories have hidden Leadsom and Hunt all campaign.

Why haven't Labour done the same with Abbott?

labour have hidden McDonnell too (apart from week 1)

I find the Abbott thing baffling.

It, her potential to be home secretary in the current security environment, might cost them a lot of votes

not saying Boris etc aren't liabilities either but Abbott? chairing cobra? come on...what IS Corbyn thinking of?

His dick is doing the talking one would imagine from 40 years ago!  You only have to have watched this week on a Thursday night for years after QT with Brillo and Choo Choo when Abbott was on there and Choo Choo struggled to keep a straight face at times with some of the nonsense Abbott used to spout.  It is mind bending she could actually have one of the top 4 government jobs next week.

She literally couldn't come across as any less competent, just horrible to watch on a human level. She appears to have literally no clue.

She loves playing the race card/woman in politics card/i am from poor hackney card all the time on TV but the reality is without all of these things she wouldn't be anywhere near where she is now in her career if she was a white, middle class, middle aged man educated privately.  She has used all of these factors to get where she is, as well as sleeping with the boss 40 years ago.  She is a classic example of giving women/ethnic minorities/working class people jobs they are not educated and qualified to do because of political correctness.

Oh come off it.  If anyone loves playing the race/political correctness card it is you.

As I have said before, both front benches are as weak as I can remember.  Both May and Corbyn are pretty low down in the best leader lists for their parties.  Liam Fox and David Davis have had positions at the top way too long.  Andrea Leadsom seems to be devoid of any talent.  I could go through the labour front bench pretty easily too.  Abbott is just one of many.

I don't disagree and have said so before many times.  Abbott is clearly the worst of a very bad bunch.

[TightEnd]

Wonder how much closer it would be if JC had the full support of the more centrist MPs in the party for the last 18 months....

or that they'd win comfortably with Yvette as Shadow Home Sec? or xyz as leader (minus all the past security/terror view concerns)?

might not have the same manifesto or the same appeal to young/ non-voters but would get more marginal voters turned off by abbott/security views etc?

we don' t know, all hypothetical

[arbboy]

Wonder how much closer it would be if JC had the full support of the more centrist MPs in the party for the last 18 months....

or that they'd win comfortably with Yvette as Shadow Home Sec? or xyz as leader (minus all the past security/terror view concerns)?

might not have the same manifesto or the same appeal to young/ non-voters but would get more marginal voters turned off by abbott/security views etc?

we don' t know, all hypothetical

Abbott just kills floating voters in key seats with her gaffs on TV.  These are DM reader types and the DM spends all day hanging her out to dry.  These votes are like gold dust to Corbs compared to winning over bundles of people in safe labour seats.

[TightEnd]

Wonder how much closer it would be if JC had the full support of the more centrist MPs in the party for the last 18 months....

or that they'd win comfortably with Yvette as Shadow Home Sec? or xyz as leader (minus all the past security/terror view concerns)?

might not have the same manifesto or the same appeal to young/ non-voters but would get more marginal voters turned off by abbott/security views etc?

we don' t know, all hypothetical

Abbott just kills floating voters in key seats with her gaffs on TV.  These are DM reader types and the DM spends all day hanging her out to dry.  These votes are like gold dust to Corbs compared to winning over bundles of people in safe labour seats.

Yes!

this has been a constant theme on here for weeks

piling up votes in safe seats, possibly not appealing to marginal voters

SO the result is (might be) good in vote share (corbyn stays) but not so good in seats

[TightEnd]

one of the most interesting ge2017 blogs I've read.

Labour - take a deep breath and read this -

http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/06/05/polls-labours-surging-non-london-doorstep-its-a-nuclear-winter-for-labour-somethings-got-to-give/

[arbboy]

Wonder how much closer it would be if JC had the full support of the more centrist MPs in the party for the last 18 months....

or that they'd win comfortably with Yvette as Shadow Home Sec? or xyz as leader (minus all the past security/terror view concerns)?

might not have the same manifesto or the same appeal to young/ non-voters but would get more marginal voters turned off by abbott/security views etc?

we don' t know, all hypothetical

Abbott just kills floating voters in key seats with her gaffs on TV.  These are DM reader types and the DM spends all day hanging her out to dry.  These votes are like gold dust to Corbs compared to winning over bundles of people in safe labour seats.

Yes!

this has been a constant theme on here for weeks

piling up votes in safe seats, possibly not appealing to marginal voters

SO the result is (might be) good in vote share (corbyn stays) but not so good in seats

Why does Corbs stay though if this is his strategy if they lose.  It is like a football manager saying 'lets have 95% possession in a game but make zero attempt to score a goal'.  The whole point of the exercise is to win and you can't win by increasing vote share in areas you are strong in no matter how impressive it might look.

[aaron1867]

If it's even nearly possible that 75% youth turn out, then this is somehow looking like Labour could really be in