Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Okies, the price has gone from yesterday, but I'm still gonna float this one up, get some other opinions.

Tote/Baldfred have a market on how many UK Classic winners Aidan O'Brien has in 2013.

9/4 Two
5/2 Three
3 One
9/2 None
9 Four
40 Five

I backed none yesterday at 8/1. They then cut it to 6/1 and someone has obviously had another look at the market since and trimmed again to 9/2.

I'm still inclined to think this is big, though, as I wouldn't want to lay over 2/1.

To put this into context, in four of the last six years Aidan has had zero winners.

This looks a big over-reaction to last season, when he had the machine that is Camelot, as well as a couple of big-priced winners in the two fillies' races.

The 2000 Guineas has an 11/4 favourite in Dawn Appraoach, but he isn't O'Brien's. It's then 8/1 bar.

In the 1000 Guineas it's 8/1 the field.

Kingsbarns is his main hope for the Derby and is 4/1 favourite, but the Derby is way off, while in the Oaks it's 12/1 the field.

For the life of me I can't see how these Tote prices make sense.

In a painfully complicated process, this bet is now ON.

Bizarrely, our Bookmaker is.....the man who proposed the bet, Chompy. These Fen boys really make things complicated. Thanks also to Killerkilsby, who helped in this complicated process. Don't even ask.

We have £17.50 @ 8/1, Aiden O'Brien to train NIL UK Classic Winners in 2013. (1000 Guineas, 2000 Guineas, Oaks, Derby & St Leger). The Bookmaker is CHOMPY.COM & the Bet is owned by CHOMPY......(Have I had my leg lifted here?).

ON

£17.5 @ 8/1, Aiden O'Brien, NO UK CLASSIC WINNERS 2013

[tikay]

Can't find massive amounts of value in the 3rd test later tonight but I have a small bet on each of these if you are interested... 

Bell Top England Batsman - looks a touch over priced at 5/1 given he will bat at 4 in Pietersen's absence

McCullum to score 50 or more - Same bet as I suggested last time around, seems a good price (2/1) given he is in some of the best form of his life (and he is very much a hot or cold player) - he has achieved this in each of his last 5 innings and England continue to struggle bowling against him

Dean Brownlie Top NZ Batsman - nice outside bet at 8/1.  He's top scored in 2 of his 19 test innings so far and has been their 2nd top scorer on a further 5 occasions, showing he is certainly capable.  I noticed in his cricinfo interview he mentioned that the Eden Park pitch favours his style of batting - no idea if this is true or not but it can't harm the bet.  The only negative to this is Anderson seems to have his number so far in the series

None amazing but all +EV IMO

Thanks gherky.

Not sure if the MCCullum (50) & Brownlie (Top NZ) bets work against each other, but I guess they could both bink. We also have interests already on Trott & Anderson in "Test Series Bets" too.

So we have loads of interest in this on what looks like a flat weekend otherwise, so we ought to get at least one or two home.

We are on all three for modest sums, in line with your "+ev but not amazing" comment.

We have £20 @ 2/1, Ladbrokes, McCulum to score 50 or more FIRST INNINGS.

£10 @ 5/1, BetFred, Bell Top England Batsman FIRST INNINGS.

£10 @ 8/1, Ladbrokes, Brownlie, Top NZ Batter, FIRST INNINGS.

ON

Selection2/1 - Yes

EventNew Zealand v England - 3rd Test International

MarketTo score 50 (1st innings) - B McCullum
 Your bets (1) Single - Yes
1 line at £20.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £20.00
Potential Return: £60.00
Time: 21/03/13 08:30
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000298

_________

Bet placed, its reference is 106/109
Bet ref: 106/109 £10.00 Single
Market Selection Price Hcp
New Zealand v England 3rd Test
Top Batsman - England (1st Innings)
 Bell, Ian 5/1 
Total stake £ 10.00
Estimated return £ 60.00

Full stake £ 10.00
Full estimated return £ 60.00

_______________


New Zealand v England - 3rd Test - Top NZ 1st Innings Runscorer
International
2013-03-21 21:30:00
 
Market: Top New Zealand runscorer 
 
Selection: D Brownlie @ 8/1 
 
Receipt No.: O/142640973/0000299
 
Placed at: 08:32 21/03/2013
 
 
 

[tikay]

Daily Report @ 0855, Thursday March 21st

PROFIT on Month = £692.80

Outstanding bets £822




https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=22

[tikay]

Daily Summary, @ 0915, Thursday March 21st

We lost £29 yesterday, on an assortment of Budget "Buzzword Bingo" bets.

My antannae were not in good form, Fred was offered a whole bunch of suggestions, & I mostly chose the wrong ones, including "Hard Choices", "Austerity" & "Twitter", which cost us £45.

"Cyprus" clawed back £16 for us, so we ended up losing £29 overall. Not good.

Moving swiftly on.....

Tonight we have two darts bets, being....

Thornton to beat Lewis, £20 @ 13/8. (Now 6/4).

Hamilton to beat Whitlock, £20 @ 15/8. (Now 7/4).

We also have a whole raft of stuff on the third & final Test between New Zealand & England.....

Anderson Top England Series Bowler

Trott Top England Series Batter

McCullum 1st Innings 50

Bell 1st Innings Top England Batter

Brownlie 1st Innings Top NZ Batter

Surely we can get a few of those home?

Elsewhere, we had a spectacular Banzai on Macclesfield to be Promoted from the Blue Square Premier, if they can get a few good results that could be our new Barnet, so to speak.  

We also took a suggestion from EuroTrash Specialist Chompy for Aiden O'Brien to have no UK Classic Winners, & we had the bet with......Chompy. Feels grimmish to me.

The Kia Classic (Girlie Golf) starts today, we are with Ji-Yai Shin, who has excellent Course Form. Not on this Course, mind......

[TightEnd]

I don't think we need any more cricket bets for tonight

Suffice to say the pitch looks like a belter

Click to see full-size image.

and the boundaries are small

Those looking: high scores, lots of 4's. Should be a McCullum pitch

For tikay, just storing up some goodwill for when the next tighty punt goes wrong, here is the Eden Park Heavy roller

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Ooh, cracking roller that. More please.

[tikay]

Any bets for this evening will need to be up & placed by 6pm, as I am working tonight, thanks.

[Dubai]

Anyone have any idea the likely England starting XI v San Marino?

[BigAdz]

Anyone have any idea the likely England starting XI v San Marino?

I don't think Rio is playing.....

[Bad Beat]

Can't find massive amounts of value in the 3rd test later tonight but I have a small bet on each of these if you are interested... 

Bell Top England Batsman - looks a touch over priced at 5/1 given he will bat at 4 in Pietersen's absence

McCullum to score 50 or more - Same bet as I suggested last time around, seems a good price (2/1) given he is in some of the best form of his life (and he is very much a hot or cold player) - he has achieved this in each of his last 5 innings and England continue to struggle bowling against him

Dean Brownlie Top NZ Batsman - nice outside bet at 8/1.  He's top scored in 2 of his 19 test innings so far and has been their 2nd top scorer on a further 5 occasions, showing he is certainly capable.  I noticed in his cricinfo interview he mentioned that the Eden Park pitch favours his style of batting - no idea if this is true or not but it can't harm the bet.  The only negative to this is Anderson seems to have his number so far in the series

None amazing but all +EV IMO

Thanks gherky.

Not sure if the MCCullum (50) & Brownlie (Top NZ) bets work against each other, but I guess they could both bink. We also have interests already on Trott & Anderson in "Test Series Bets" too.

So we have loads of interest in this on what looks like a flat weekend otherwise, so we ought to get at least one or two home.

We are on all three for modest sums, in line with your "+ev but not amazing" comment.

We have £20 @ 2/1, Ladbrokes, McCulum to score 50 or more FIRST INNINGS.

£10 @ 5/1, BetFred, Bell Top England Batsman FIRST INNINGS.

£10 @ 8/1, Ladbrokes, Brownlie, Top NZ Batter, FIRST INNINGS.

ON

Selection2/1 - Yes

EventNew Zealand v England - 3rd Test International

MarketTo score 50 (1st innings) - B McCullum
 Your bets (1) Single - Yes
1 line at £20.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £20.00
Potential Return: £60.00
Time: 21/03/13 08:30
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000298

_________

Bet placed, its reference is 106/109
Bet ref: 106/109 £10.00 Single
Market Selection Price Hcp
New Zealand v England 3rd Test
Top Batsman - England (1st Innings)
 Bell, Ian 5/1 
Total stake £ 10.00
Estimated return £ 60.00

Full stake £ 10.00
Full estimated return £ 60.00

_______________


New Zealand v England - 3rd Test - Top NZ 1st Innings Runscorer
International
2013-03-21 21:30:00
 
Market: Top New Zealand runscorer 
 
Selection: D Brownlie @ 8/1 
 
Receipt No.: O/142640973/0000299
 
Placed at: 08:32 21/03/2013
 
 
 

 Can I ask why you had twice as much on the shorter price one?

 I thought Gherkin seemed to think they were all a little +ev. He didn't say anything about fancying any twice as much.

 (not being overly critical, but I do think it's a weakness of punters to not bet enough on outsiders because they can't really see them winning. I'm hoping that an educated punter like yourself Tikay, would not fall into that trap. The price itself should not concern us, simply the amount it differs from what we consider the "true price" to be. Obviously Brownlee is less likely to cop than McCulum but that doesn't make him a worse bet. It could easily make him a better bet and worthy of twice as much. Anyway a year in and nicely up I should think if a shrewd guy like Gherkin, who is clearly a good judge, puts anything up them we should have more than £10 on. I suggest making all his bets here into £20 if the prices are still around).

[tikay]

Morning Neil,

Don't disagree with a word of that, excepr for the "tikay = educated punter" lubricant.

It was a mistake on my part, rushing, I think I must respond though.

Yes, we back Gherky cricket stuff blind, he only has 3 bets so far (sample size etc) but has made us £225 at a ROI of 265%, so no doubting his mad skills at all.

But this morning has been a NIGHTMARE for me, the nut worst morning possible.

The Chompy bet took 5 PM's & a Bank TX, Gherky's three seperate recommends took a while to sort, & I am just all over the shop this morning. I've had man 'flu for a week, we have a major (3 hour) Meeting today, I have to work all weekend at the SPT, & on top of that, & quite unexpectedly, I now have to do tonight''s Show. Enough excuses there to last a lifetime......but there is a better one, too.

My Company Lappie runs an old version of IE, which does not support Oddschecker, so I could not access the prices. (Gherky never stated the Bookies), so I had to go & search for them, nor did he specify the amounts to be wagered. It always helps with my time issues if the Recommend includes the Bookie, & the Amount. Less room for me to mess up then. And yet....I now work in an Office ALONGSIDE the Oddschecker team!

Anyway, good feedback, appreciated, thanks, but today is just a nightmare for me. I'll try & even up those bets, then I'm off to bed in readiness for tonight.

[BigAdz]

Some people eh......

Glass half empty....

[tikay]

....and now......Ladbrokes site is DOWN.

Aarrggh.

[tikay]

Done.

Got £10 on both those under-repped bets. Thanks Neil.

I got on Ladbrokes via Mobile, so cannot C  P the Betslip until the regular site is back up, but we are on.

£10 @ 8/1, Ladbrokes, Brownlie Top NZ Scorer, FIRST INNINGS. (Gherky).

£10 @ 5/1, BetFred, Bell, Top England Scorer FIRST INNINGS (gherky).

ON

Bet placed, its reference is 107/110
Bet ref: 107/110 £10.00 Single
Market Selection Price Hcp
New Zealand v England 3rd Test
Top Batsman - England (1st Innings)
 Bell, Ian 5/1  
Total stake £ 10.00
Estimated return £ 60.00

Full stake £ 10.00
Full estimated return £ 60.00

_______

Ladbrokes Betslip to follow. The Ladbrokes Bet Reference is 0/142640973/0000300

[Bad Beat]

 I wasn't having a dig, just making a more general point.

 Hope you have a lovely relaxing day.