I had another pretty decent day today. I find myself in between a rock and a hard place as I have bought the BE package but I also like to back my own stuff. and do a right up of my selections before for talking over with mates. So as not to make it all sound like aftertiming I'll stick my bets for tomorrow up, these are my first picks I will then have a look at the betting in the morning and read through Neil's choices before making final selections.
Race 1 - Quest for Peace - small win. Looked better at 7/1 but has gone.
Race 2 - Want to be yours/Rapprochment both e/w (preference for first named)
Race 3 - Bronze Angel/Our Channel (both e/w preference for the first named price seems to have gone now on second named.
Race 4 - Take Cover/Demora/Hay Chewed (all e/w in preference as named)
Race 5 - Markaz e/w
Race 6 - Muteela (NAP) If pushed for an e/w Manderlay
Race 7 - Festival Thearter/Cape Caster both win only.
Certainly welcome any comments on my selections.
Well done Kmac, great to see someone learning the game and not afraid to show it, would be great to see your thought process for the selections ( I'm presuming you do something to narrow them down) refreshing aspect to the thread if you can keep it up. No doubt we can all learn abit along with you as well. Great Stuff.
Sure thing, the thing I think I have picked up most from Neils writings on here and on the subscribed service is its not always about finding the winner of the race because sometimes we get better value in the place with something that is pretty solid that also has a high% chance of winning. I have also found myself ignoring the market to start with, previously I'd have looked at the market and already drawn pretty strong conclusions before actually thinking about the race as a whole. Also think its an important factor to translate form from other courses to the course that we are backing. Before I'd maybe do this with Brighton but having read on here from guys like RedArmi that there are similar courses were particular horses do better at similar type courses I have tried to bear that in mind.
Onto the selections then, for Race 1 I just thought the fav was short enough and wasn't cnvinced that the price we were getting represented any significant value. We all know Godolphin can ready one but I think its a huge ask to have Enke anywhere near his best after nearly 2 years off. I thought Battle of Marengo woluldn't be too keen on the ground. Cafe Society is back up in trip after finishing well at Ascot previously over 10f, and although a progressive type I wasn't sure it was upto the class of winning a race of this type. That left me with Songcraft, Aussie Reigns and Quest for Peace. Aussie Reigns looks like a fun horse that the connections will get good value from in decent handicaps not sure its upto winning a group 3. We know Songcraft gos well fresh but it doesn't have any course and distance form which Quest for Peace has a previous winner of this race. I was really between the 2, but in the end decided as the prices were pretty similar that the C&D win, return from down under and the fact Cumani was unlikely to fire this into a group 3 without thinking t had much of a chance convinced me to have a smallish bet on that, I also really like Andrea Atzeni, he has a touch of class and for my money he has a built in clock that sees him run fractions well and again we know the horse likes to fron run and there aren't many coming from off the pace this week. Horse has also won over a slightly longer trip so I don't see it tiring if its close to full fitness.
In race 2 - I was really looking for something to be against the fav with again I just thought it was short enough and although clearly a high class animal I thought I'd try and get one that would improve for previous runs. There wasn't great e/w value to be had but prior to the non runners I thought my 2 were reasonably priced and worth a few pounds with the revised terms I am thinking of changing course and just backing Raprochment win only. This horse really could be anything it destroyed not too bad a field on its only start and has been drastically upped in class, my instincts tell me the stable like this one.
Race 3 - bit of a minefield I initially thought Bronze Angel ran a reasonable race on Saturday but never really got the run of the race and I think the ground was against him somewhat, for my money this is a horse that prefers good fast ground. The draw looks bad at first but as a hold up performer it might allow Martin Dwyer an opportunity to ease him into the race. I considered Fort Bastion as Neil stuck that up on Saturday but again the clerk of the course kind of scuppered his plans by watering. I was really keen on Our Chanel last night when I saw the price was 25/1 I deposited funds to back this on a new site I don't have an account with only for the price to no longer be available. Our Chanle has been tried at a decent level and I think it will go on improving and Haggas has his horses in great nick at the mo. There were doubts over quite a few of these and it really is a tough handicap to crack. I think with the 2 non runners this morning andpotential for a few more to come out I will wait to nearer race time before actually betting. I was looking forward to seeing what Neil selected in this race as he seems to have an angle in these big handicaps.
Race 4 - I think there is definitely a draw bias over the sprint trips this week and nothing drawn outside of box 5 has won any of the sprints. So I was looking for horses that were drawn low and that would be up with the pace. When i looked at the race last night Sky were paying 4 places at 1/5 the odds and the prices weren't massively out from the other books that were going 1/5 for first 3 and the few that were going 1/4 for the first 3.
Race 5 - Is the sort of race that makes me want to scratch my own eyes out. A nursery is basically a handicap for 2 year olds. Some of these have solid form to go on some don't and could be either really good or really bad. Right now I don't feel like this is a race I want to bet, but if the price was right and the terms were good I'd be on Markaz looked decent when winning at Ascot, cost loads of monet £200,000 and comes from a stable we know like to win here. Infact I am doing a good job of talking myself into that.
(this is what I wrote last night, and I ended up backing it at 9/1) Race 6 - I really couldn't see past the front 2 in the betting and the fav just looks good to me can do it from out in front, its from a stable that love winners here and has been banging them in all week it looked really impressive when winning at Ascot. I just couldn't find a negative.
Race 7 - The closing race of the day is another tough handicap on paper but the e/w terms arent great so I'd probably side with 2 lively ones win only. The two I like are Festival Thearte and Cape Caster. Festival Theartre hasn't progressed as expected this year but its been given a few months off the course and it might just be the time of year we get to see the best of it and Cape Caster is from a stable/jockey combo I really like to be onside with.