Tips for Tikay

[Bertpup]

Sports personality of the year award betting again.

Ladbrokes are the only bookies with a market on total women shortlisted but think they have there book badly set.

The odds are as follows

0 -20/1
1- 6/1
2- 5/2
3- 2/1
4- 3/1
5- 10/1
6 20/1

From looking at the markets and thinking about the current crop of female sports people I think there is going to be at least 3 women on the shortlist. I would say at the moment the likely list is going to look something along the lines of.

1)Bradley wiggins
2)Andy Murray
3)Ben Ainslie
4)Mo Farah
5)Jessica Ennis
6)Rebecca Addlington (or other female gold medal swimmer)
7)Victoria Pendleton (or other female cyclist gold medalist)
8)Paralymian (Ellie Simmonds or David Weir)

Then the other two places up for grabs I think could be Possible cricketer, Possible golfer, Alastair Brownlee, Gold medal winning Tom daley, Gold medal winning Dai Green,   Chris Hoy/Cavendish, another Paralympian, Medal winning Beth Tweddle, female gold medal swimmer. 

I'm pretty confident of the top 7 names . I think there is a good chance of Ennis and Ainslie making the list even if they don't win gold and end up with Silver.

I think a big bet on 4 women being shortlisted with a cheeky saver on 5 would represent a decent value shout.   

[TightEnd]

Not giving an opinion on the numbers, need to have a think on that BUT...remember the whoo-haaa when all the sports journalists put in all male panels last year? (manchester Evening News including Giggs and Scoles too, for example)

I think there maybe a "PR" bias towards more women friendly lists come this October, too

[Bertpup]

Not giving an opinion on the numbers, need to have a think on that BUT...remember the whoo-haaa when all the sports journalists put in all male panels last year? (manchester Evening News including Giggs and Scoles too, for example)

I think there maybe a "PR" bias towards more women friendly lists come this October, too

Yeah forgot to put that bit in which leans towards a female Paralympian being selected.

[Chompy]

Like this one bertpup, certainly worse 10/1 shots around. Go on, put up a suggested bet amount imo...

[Bertpup]

Like this one bertpup, certainly worse 10/1 shots around. Go on, put up a suggested bet amount imo...

I've just had a look back to 2008 SPOTY awards shortlist and there were 4 women on it out of 7 Olympians the others were Lewis Hamilton, Calzaghe and Murray.

Bet size I would suggest as much as possible but as its my first offering. £75 on 4 £10 on 5

[The Camel]

Like this one bertpup, certainly worse 10/1 shots around. Go on, put up a suggested bet amount imo...

I've just had a look back to 2008 SPOTY awards shortlist and there were 4 women on it out of 7 Olympians the others were Lewis Hamilton, Calzaghe and Murray.

Bet size I would suggest as much as possible but as its my first offering. £75 on 4 £10 on 5

Think this is really good bet.

Would love to play over 2.5 at 4/6.

[Bertpup]

Like this one bertpup, certainly worse 10/1 shots around. Go on, put up a suggested bet amount imo...

I've just had a look back to 2008 SPOTY awards shortlist and there were 4 women on it out of 7 Olympians the others were Lewis Hamilton, Calzaghe and Murray.

Bet size I would suggest as much as possible but as its my first offering. £75 on 4 £10 on 5

The more I think about it the more appealing 5 looks. Sack it all on 5 and put a saver on 4th.

[TightEnd]

Ennis
Pendelton
Adlington

Certainties


Tweddle
Simmonds

Possibilities

Unknown Olympic Medallist female (Perri Shakes Drayton?)

Maybe


Is there not an over/under bet on say 4 that is more of a good thing than having to get the exact number of nominees?

[The Camel]

Zara Phillips must be a runner again if she gets gold.

[Bertpup]

Ennis
Pendelton
Adlington

Certainties


Tweddle
Simmonds

Possibilities

Unknown Olympic Medallist female (Perri Shakes Drayton?)

Maybe


Is there not an over/under bet on say 4 that is more of a good thing than having to get the exact number of nominees?

No only Laddies have this market.

Names that are in the betting are Fran Hansall, laura trott, Kerri Ann Payne.

With the voting there are only 30 journalists nominating. I think you have 4 certainties with the men in Wiggins, Murray, Ainslie and Farah.

That means there are 3 spots left. I think there are a lot of male athletes that could take a nomination away from another male athlete. I can't imagine there being a ballot that contains Wiggins, Kenny and Cavendish its going to be either Kenny or Cavendish thus taking a vote away from a another male athlete.

I think the smaller pool of potential female candidates is going to help.  

[Doobs]

Ennis
Pendelton
Adlington

Certainties

Before we get carried away, Pendelton isn't even favourite for Gold.  Surely she isn't ever getting in the list without a Gold if we are forecast for 20 or 30 in total.  Ennis is only slight odds on etc.  

Will happily lay 2 or less of the 3 certainties above.

Not knocking the bet, just some of the thinking

[Bertpup]

Ennis
Pendelton
Adlington

Certainties

Before we get carried away, Pendelton isn't even favourite for Gold.  Surely she isn't ever getting in the list without a Gold if we are forecast for 20 or 30 in total.  Ennis is only slight odds on etc.  

Will happily lay 2 or less of the 3 certainties above.

Not knocking the bet, just some of the thinking

But a British female gold winning cyclist will be.

[Tal]

Ennis
Pendelton
Adlington

Certainties


Tweddle
Simmonds

Possibilities

Unknown Olympic Medallist female (Perri Shakes Drayton?)

Maybe


Is there not an over/under bet on say 4 that is more of a good thing than having to get the exact number of nominees?

Is Adlington a certainty? She might not win two (one) gold this time around. There's a lot of competition in an Olympic year (particularly where there are non-Olympic achievements this year) and her moment in the sun might have passed.

Not disputing the logic over numbers of women (particularly like the argument about no women last year creating a furore) but not convinced about Adlington making the ten.

[Tonji]

A few other female swimmers are in with a decent shout of gold if Rebecca Adlington falters. Keri-Anne Payne the best bet.

[Doobs]

Not knocking the bet, just some of the thinking