Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

The Cleveland Browns

I am convinced that in an alternate universe they are a 4-6 win team on talent but appallingly coached

their record is 0-15

Browns passing offense: 32.1% success rate, 3rd worst. They have called 648 passes - most in the NFL.

Browns rushing offense: 30.5% success rate, 6th best. They have called 295 rushes - last in the NFL.

It is stuff like this that means theior results always underperform their stats, and point spreads!

This weekend they are +7 against the 4 win Bears, themselves terribly coached

from oddsshark

Click to see full-size image.

this has to be the weekend the Browns cover if not win yes?

we can get 12/5 the Browns on the money line https://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/cleveland-browns-at-chicago-bears/winner

+7 on the spread https://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/cleveland-browns-at-chicago-bears/point-spread

[TightEnd]

Patriots-Bills

It's Dion Lewis time again (reference 18-1 FTS last season)

From Weeks 10 through 15, Rex Burkhead had 7 goal-line touches, tied for third in the NFL. Dion Lewis had just 1.

Burkhead is injured this week and BB doesn't seem to trust Gilleslie.

A positive script is probable this week for New England's run game against a beatable Buffalo rush D.

Buffalo run D ranked 29th, worsened a lot after Dareus was traded to the Jags

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&defensiveStatisticCategory=RUSHING&conference=ALL&role=OPP&season=2016&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=RUSHING_YARDS_PER_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=1&d-447263-n=1

2017 NFL leaders in yards after contact per attempt (min 50 carries):

1. Patriots Dion Lewis - 2.78
2. Eagles L. Blount - 2.69
3. Titans Derrick Henry - 2.65
4. Saints Alvin Kamara - 2.52
5. Saints Mark Ingram - 2.40

Of course the Pats have plenty of weapons but two games out of the play offs in likely cold weather suggests to me that Lewis is a valid FTS/ATS play here

https://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/buffalo-bills-at-new-england-patriots/first-touchdown-scorer

[TightEnd]

Swansea, they want to talk to

Click to see full-size image.

or wouldn't our old friend push them to 16th?

Click to see full-size image.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/swansea/next-swansea-manager

[Doobs]

The Cleveland Browns

I am convinced that in an alternate universe they are a 4-6 win team on talent but appallingly coached

their record is 0-15

Browns passing offense: 32.1% success rate, 3rd worst. They have called 648 passes - most in the NFL.

Browns rushing offense: 30.5% success rate, 6th best. They have called 295 rushes - last in the NFL.

It is stuff like this that means theior results always underperform their stats, and point spreads!

This weekend they are +7 against the 4 win Bears, themselves terribly coached

from oddsshark

Click to see full-size image.

this has to be the weekend the Browns cover if not win yes?

we can get 12/5 the Browns on the money line https://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/cleveland-browns-at-chicago-bears/winner

+7 on the spread https://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/cleveland-browns-at-chicago-bears/point-spread

I don't know enough about NFL, but nobody has answered, so in the spirit of discusion.

Love those stats Tighty.  Doesn't he just keep calling the pass though?  Or has he left?   They are away too and isn't that worth 2 or 3.

I don't get it, doesn't this just all point to the bears?  ...and they are 23/20. 

[KarmaDope]

Aren't Chicago's DEF a hell of a lot better than their offense though and thats why they're 4-11 despite a rookie QB, no WRs to name and Jordan Howard playing out of his skin against a stacked box?

I can see the D feasting against Kizer and for some reason the Browns don't trust their running game despite the fact that their second and third best offensive players are RB's (Crowell and Duke J) so if any of these bets were a maybe, I'd be going for the spread and unders.

[KarmaDope]

Patriots-Bills

It's Dion Lewis time again (reference 18-1 FTS last season)

From Weeks 10 through 15, Rex Burkhead had 7 goal-line touches, tied for third in the NFL. Dion Lewis had just 1.

Burkhead is injured this week and BB doesn't seem to trust Gilleslie.

A positive script is probable this week for New England's run game against a beatable Buffalo rush D.

Buffalo run D ranked 29th, worsened a lot after Dareus was traded to the Jags

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&defensiveStatisticCategory=RUSHING&conference=ALL&role=OPP&season=2016&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=RUSHING_YARDS_PER_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=1&d-447263-n=1

2017 NFL leaders in yards after contact per attempt (min 50 carries):

1. Patriots Dion Lewis - 2.78
2. Eagles L. Blount - 2.69
3. Titans Derrick Henry - 2.65
4. Saints Alvin Kamara - 2.52
5. Saints Mark Ingram - 2.40

Of course the Pats have plenty of weapons but two games out of the play offs in likely cold weather suggests to me that Lewis is a valid FTS/ATS play here

https://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/buffalo-bills-at-new-england-patriots/first-touchdown-scorer

Like this.

Would also maybe have a cheeky dart at T-Mobile/McCoy FTS on the basis of covering if Buffalo receive first up.

[Chompy]

Wolverhampton tomorrow, 8.15.

Teds Brother makes the market here after last week's rout, but he hasn't suddenly improved at the age of almost ten and that looked down to the switch to a visor for the first time.

TIS WONDERFUL at double-figure prices looks more than decent to me.

[Cavey007]

Patriots-Bills

It's Dion Lewis time again (reference 18-1 FTS last season)

From Weeks 10 through 15, Rex Burkhead had 7 goal-line touches, tied for third in the NFL. Dion Lewis had just 1.

Burkhead is injured this week and BB doesn't seem to trust Gilleslie.

A positive script is probable this week for New England's run game against a beatable Buffalo rush D.

Buffalo run D ranked 29th, worsened a lot after Dareus was traded to the Jags

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&defensiveStatisticCategory=RUSHING&conference=ALL&role=OPP&season=2016&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=RUSHING_YARDS_PER_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=1&d-447263-n=1

2017 NFL leaders in yards after contact per attempt (min 50 carries):

1. Patriots Dion Lewis - 2.78
2. Eagles L. Blount - 2.69
3. Titans Derrick Henry - 2.65
4. Saints Alvin Kamara - 2.52
5. Saints Mark Ingram - 2.40

Of course the Pats have plenty of weapons but two games out of the play offs in likely cold weather suggests to me that Lewis is a valid FTS/ATS play here

https://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/buffalo-bills-at-new-england-patriots/first-touchdown-scorer

Like this.

Would also maybe have a cheeky dart at T-Mobile/McCoy FTS on the basis of covering if Buffalo receive first up.

I am tempted with 2 or more on Lewis and Gillislee on the off chance that he is active and resumes the goal line carries again

[Cavey007]

Aren't Chicago's DEF a hell of a lot better than their offense though and thats why they're 4-11 despite a rookie QB, no WRs to name and Jordan Howard playing out of his skin against a stacked box?

I can see the D feasting against Kizer and for some reason the Browns don't trust their running game despite the fact that their second and third best offensive players are RB's (Crowell and Duke J) so if any of these bets were a maybe, I'd be going for the spread and unders.

Bears D is pretty good especially at home. I wouldn't be shocked if the Browns cover the spread and yes John Fox is useless. I gave them a chance a few times this season, won't be here. Good luck if you guys get on though

[Cavey007]

Being a Bengals fan the one bet I've been confident on since the lines were released is the Lions covering the spread.

The Bengals are a mess right now. They're decimated 9n defence with their most experienced Corner backs out injured and 2 rookies likely starting at linebacker, although Burfict may be available again. But even then it's not great for them. Add to that the worst scoring offence in the league over the last month with the possibility(probability) of them giving McCarron or even Driskel some extended game time and it's not a great look for them.

The Lions are in the hunt for a playoff spot and dealt with the Bears fairly easily last week (the Bears beat Cinci easily the week before). Matthew Stafford has 290 yards or multiple TDs in 10 consecutive games, Marvin Jones returns to his former side in good form and golden taste should do well in the slot. The tight end Eric Ebron is having his usual late season run of form. It's running back where they struggle but even they could have some success against this Bengals team.

The only worry seems to be that they play up for Marvin Lewis on what is probably his last home game with the team. Or at least respond to the media criticism that they've given up on the season. (Steve fezzik really likes the Bengals ATS)

But to me (I am on it already) the Lions - 4.5 seems a solid bet (line opened at 3.5 went to 5 now back in to 4.5)

[Tal]

The Cleveland Browns

I am convinced that in an alternate universe they are a 4-6 win team on talent but appallingly coached

their record is 0-15

Browns passing offense: 32.1% success rate, 3rd worst. They have called 648 passes - most in the NFL.

Browns rushing offense: 30.5% success rate, 6th best. They have called 295 rushes - last in the NFL.

It is stuff like this that means theior results always underperform their stats, and point spreads!

This weekend they are +7 against the 4 win Bears, themselves terribly coached

from oddsshark

Click to see full-size image.

this has to be the weekend the Browns cover if not win yes?

we can get 12/5 the Browns on the money line https://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/cleveland-browns-at-chicago-bears/winner

+7 on the spread https://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/cleveland-browns-at-chicago-bears/point-spread

You've inspired me to look at the game no one wants to watch

Fun stats but obviously a bit slim on sample size.

Here's a fun comparator: the Bears are 7-6-1 ATS, so the bookies have been calling their games this season pretty well. They're also 4-4-1 after a loss, so the market hasn't overcompensated.

There's an argument that Cleveland only being 3.5 or 4 points worse than another team this season (with the 3 points for a home team taken off) is not exceptional value.

That said, if there is a team you'd pick where it could be value, it's Chicago.

The line for total points opened at a miserly 38.5 and went DOWN to 38. In games under 40 points, if you get a touchdown advantage on the handicap, you're probably on the right side. Basically, the Browns need to score two touchdowns and a field goal to get to the 17 point implied spread-buster.

Bears games have gone 4-9-1 on the total points, so that favours the under. Cleveland a more level 6-8. Chicago 5-2 in favour of the unders at home. Cleveland slightly over with 4-2, but that's more about how many points they've let in than it is about their own performance.



If I had to bet, unders is where I go, despite the thing that always tells me to bet overs in games under 40 that aren't in three feet of snow or have gale force winds.

That said, as I mentioned, low totals tend to favour the team getting a head start on the handicap, so this could be a nice Cleveland spot.

[Tal]

At the risk of upsetting our resident experts, I fancy one in the Man City v Bournemouth game.

City justify their price in the outright market, but Matchbook's Mark Stinchcombe has a nice contra-view on the total goals market:

https://insights.matchbook.com/mark-stinchcombe-im-liking-lots-christmas-goals-emirates/

BACKING BOURNEMOUTH TO HOLD BACK CITY

Bournemouth, on the other hand, have no respite. After being blown away 4-0 by Liverpool as they face the daunting prospect of a trip to Manchester to face a rampant City side. But have had a week to recover, and their results against the big guns haven’t been that bad and a goal line of 4.0 looks a bit too high.

2-1 Chelsea
0-4 Liverpool
1-0 Man Utd
0-1 Chelsea
1-0 Tottenham
3-0 Arsenal

I may be taking a bit of a chance here given the way the Citizen’s have wiped out all in front of them this season and stuck four past Tottenham and Swansea in their last two games. But you have to go back nine games prior to this before they’d scored more than three and this will be their 11th game in the last five weeks.

This game is part of a run that will see them play 17 games in nine weeks after their progression to the League Cup semi-finals.

Their next two fixtures over the festive period are both away, with a 12 o’clock kick-off at Crystal Palace on New Year’s Eve, and I can see Pep Guardiola managing the squad by resting and rotating.

I just don’t think this is necessarily going to be an all-out-attack all game. In Bournemouth’s previous meeting with Man City this season they only lost 2-1 with an xG of just 1.40.

City won this fixture 4-0 last season, but the xG in that was only 3.0 so I think at odds against there is enough value to warrant a bet


We can get 2.41 with Snickers Bet on under 3.5 goals.

Recommend £30 if we fancy.

[TightEnd]

Wolverhampton tomorrow, 8.15.

Teds Brother makes the market here after last week's rout, but he hasn't suddenly improved at the age of almost ten and that looked down to the switch to a visor for the first time.

TIS WONDERFUL at double-figure prices looks more than decent to me.

i assume 11/2 is no good, completelymisseda big price move it seems

https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/wolverhampton/20:15/winner

[Chompy]

I'm no PL expert but this seems weak to me.

Why is everyone so desperate to take on the best club side in the world all of a sudden? Didn't they make ten changes in the week? Back to the usual here?

Howe seemed to have pretty much written off this game when he spoke in the week and he's unlikely to suddenly change tactics after Souness's comments about Bournemouth getting it wrong v the big six.

In other news, Tis Wonderful...timberrrrrrr. I've got £0 on, which is nice.

[TightEnd]

At the risk of upsetting our resident experts, I fancy one in the Man City v Bournemouth game.

City justify their price in the outright market, but Matchbook's Mark Stinchcombe has a nice contra-view on the total goals market:

https://insights.matchbook.com/mark-stinchcombe-im-liking-lots-christmas-goals-emirates/

BACKING BOURNEMOUTH TO HOLD BACK CITY

Bournemouth, on the other hand, have no respite. After being blown away 4-0 by Liverpool as they face the daunting prospect of a trip to Manchester to face a rampant City side. But have had a week to recover, and their results against the big guns haven’t been that bad and a goal line of 4.0 looks a bit too high.

2-1 Chelsea
0-4 Liverpool
1-0 Man Utd
0-1 Chelsea
1-0 Tottenham
3-0 Arsenal

I may be taking a bit of a chance here given the way the Citizen’s have wiped out all in front of them this season and stuck four past Tottenham and Swansea in their last two games. But you have to go back nine games prior to this before they’d scored more than three and this will be their 11th game in the last five weeks.

This game is part of a run that will see them play 17 games in nine weeks after their progression to the League Cup semi-finals.

Their next two fixtures over the festive period are both away, with a 12 o’clock kick-off at Crystal Palace on New Year’s Eve, and I can see Pep Guardiola managing the squad by resting and rotating.

I just don’t think this is necessarily going to be an all-out-attack all game. In Bournemouth’s previous meeting with Man City this season they only lost 2-1 with an xG of just 1.40.

City won this fixture 4-0 last season, but the xG in that was only 3.0 so I think at odds against there is enough value to warrant a bet


We can get 2.41 with Snickers Bet on under 3.5 goals.

Recommend £30 if we fancy.

thoughts?