Tips for Tikay

[bergeroo]

Tennis- There is some 40/1 about for Danlil Medvedev at the tennis in Marseille next week. Really like this young and improving player and think this is a more than fair each way price. He has a tough first round match vs the unpredictable Paire. After that he has a really nice quarter with all the top players in the other sections. Alternative line would be to see how he does vs Paire on Tuesday and get on him if he books a nice win and the odds still look generous.

I also like Cuevas in Rio if you can get some 14/1 ew. Not all books are on oddschecker right now and haven't had chance to go through them all.  He is the defending champion and will face qualifiers in his first two matches and is in other side of the draw to Nishikori the favourite. Clay court specialist who did suffer a surprise loss last week but the player who beat him did go on to win the tournament. On the plus side, he is fresh!

[Weetabix]

Cuevas is probably in the tougher draw in my opinion.  Thiem would be the likely winner with  20/1 fognini also in cuevas section, fognini hopefully turns up and puts some effort in which will see him play a part.  Ferrer In the top half but he has been given a nightmare opener v this weeks convincing winner dolgopolov(also 20/1). He rarely broke sweat this week without dropping a set so if his body has held up 20/1 or bigger if available could be worth an interest for those wanting a run.

[bergeroo]

Cuevas is probably in the tougher draw in my opinion.  Thiem would be the likely winner with  20/1 fognini also in cuevas section, fognini hopefully turns up and puts some effort in which will see him play a part.  Ferrer In the top half but he has been given a nightmare opener v this weeks convincing winner dolgopolov(also 20/1). He rarely broke sweat this week without dropping a set so if his body has held up 20/1 or bigger if available could be worth an interest for those wanting a run.

Sean Calvert tipped up Fognini in his column this week - Who knows? He lost to Robredo last week who previously hadn't won at ATP level for over 12 months after injury... They are playing again in the first round. Could be interesting

[verndog158]

Imagine paying your Kennel bill to own a virtual dog!!  that would be incredible.  Good luck tonight.

Ha most owners never even go to the kennels so could happen!
Ha what you think? Decent value there later?

http://greyhoundbet.racingpost.com/#card/race_id=1511466&r_date=2017-02-19&tab=form

I wouldn't be making it the joint fav tbh.  5/2 looks plenty short enough.  It is well drawn on the rails with t2 not a natural looking railer which moves middle.  It should get a solo on the rails and lead up but has plenty to find on the clock (which it could easily do at 21 months old) but it is the slowest dog in the race on known form.  Got 3.5 lengths to find with t3 on the clock.  Other dogs have also done faster times in trouble in their previous races.  Your best time was done with an effective solo/clean run.  I would make it a 4/1 shot with no margin tbh and that is only based on the fact it looks certain to get a lead and clear run early.  If it doesn't lead early then i can't get how it can win as there are a few big staying types in the race.  Don't forget that show is betting to 136%.  6% a runner so take 6% off the 5/2 (28.5%) and you got 22.5% or 7/2 to 100%.  Still don't think i would be backing it at 7/2 tbh.

I wouldn't want to be laying 6/1 about the big stayer in t5 tbh.

http://www.oddschecker.com/greyhounds/central-park/21:19/winner

Afternoon bfsb loltraders and irish rofflers!  Nice to know you are still tuning into TFT you clueless bunch of mugs!  You actually pushed the t5 out to 7/1 from 6/1 then a minute later cut it into 5/1 as you got towards reading the end of my post from odds checker price movement records!!  So funny you have to laugh.  Prove if there was ever needed that you move your prices off air and not money.  Please post and explain why the 5 dog went from 6/1 to 7/1 then back into 5/1 in the space of 2 minutes otherwise!!!

http://www.oddschecker.com/greyhounds/central-park/21:19/winner/bet-history/ravefield-molly/today

I think you have misread oddschecker, it looks like nearly an hour between the move from 7/1 and that to 5/1.  Surely it is likely to be someone/some people with fat fingers in a market with little liquidity several hours in advance.  I guess it wouldn't take much more than a few hundred to make that move.  

Would take substantially less than a few hundred to move any early dog prices nowadays! Quite ridiculous really.

The first bet larger than £20 would move a price imo at this time of the morning or simply just tuning into tft and reading a post.  We should try it one time and send them the wrong way ala Mardle/Dubai coup just to prove they read this place and move off air.

thanks for all the advice. left it alone tonight, good race though!! thought she stayed on well and was there or there abouts

Did you back the proper jolly at 5/2 when it went off 5/4?  That is my only question?   i tried to mark your card!  Forget about what dog you own!  I told you your dog was a 4/1 poke and it returned that.  I haven't seen the race but it sounded close.   3 won in trouble as well.  Maybe it was an odds on poke.

No no bets last night! As I said I rarely sports bet !

[TightEnd]

Can we take the last of the 33/1 on Stuart Bingham for the World Championships at Ladbrokes?

He has had a very consistent season, ranked 2nd in the world, knows how to win at the Crucible and price just looks too big for someone playing so well.

Worth saying that the ranking is largely down to still counting his £££ from his win at the worlds but still 7 Semi Finals or better this season. Looked on top form in Wales this week too.

did you watch last night? Trump highest break 48 in 9 frames and he won the session 5-4. In fact both played poorly

is the price still there on Bingham? would be surprised, but I suppose no more surpriased than when he won it and it a wide open year

[TightEnd]

GOOOOOOOOO  FLEETWOOD


Only pre season bet still with legs ,got a sweat at least.

Ahem,

8/3/2016   Rod Paradise   williamhill   1-May-17   football   SPL without Celtic   Aberdeen   100/30   30

Aberdeen now 6 points clear of 3rd.

Ahem and sigh

premier league relegation   leicester   40/1   50

no chance of it happening, obviously.

 

[Rod Paradise]

GOOOOOOOOO  FLEETWOOD


Only pre season bet still with legs ,got a sweat at least.

Ahem,

8/3/2016   Rod Paradise   williamhill   1-May-17   football   SPL without Celtic   Aberdeen   100/30   30

Aberdeen now 6 points clear of 3rd.

Ahem and sigh

premier league relegation   leicester   40/1   50

no chance of it happening, obviously.

 

Sweats all over, cold sweats in some cases but still...

[PokerBroker]

EightEight8 stillg going 7/4 Aberdee w/o Celtic.  Clearly a rick but if anyone doesn't mind losing an account I'd have the entire roll on that. 

[MattyHollis]

EightEight8 stillg going 7/4 Aberdee w/o Celtic.  Clearly a rick but if anyone doesn't mind losing an account I'd have the entire roll on that. 

Would imagine you'd just lose your account and they'd cancel your bet too after they see it? Nearest other price is 4/9 it's quite easily to claim fat fingered palp no?

[PokerBroker]

EightEight8 stillg going 7/4 Aberdee w/o Celtic.  Clearly a rick but if anyone doesn't mind losing an account I'd have the entire roll on that. 

Would imagine you'd just lose your account and they'd cancel your bet too after they see it? Nearest other price is 4/9 it's quite easily to claim fat fingered palp no?

Aye.  Very stale price. 

[Tonibell]

Taking a real flyer on a potential ante post bet for Cheltenham, before the Stat Pack take a closer look.

In the last 4 years Paul Nichols has really done well in the Fred Winter, two wins, 4 seconds, 1 3rd, 1 4th, 1 5th. Not bad, from 11 runners eh?!

The weights aren't out yet, but it almost feels like a bet opportunity.

He has two that take the eye at this stage. Dolos who ran ok behind the current Triumph Hurdle fav at Chepstow, without looking to be overly exerted. Clearly not a Triumph horse, but looked like it was there to get a tidy mark for this.

The real eyecatcher, however, is a horse called Chameron.
...

In Harry derham's blog today he says Chameron isn't going to the festival and will be aimed at Autueil later. http://www.paulnichollsracing.com/harry-derhams-blog/

Shame. I thought this was a great spot.

[Tal]

Any basketball wonks have a view on the Raptors for the NBA championship?

45/1 with Patrick Parr. 28/1 generally.

They've signed Serge Ibaka, which I gather is reflective of the team trying to win now, rather than buidling for the future, particularly as they've given up a youngster and a draft pick. Ibaka improves their 3 point game and their defense.

Analytics site, Number Fire, has them as a 7.3% shot at winning the championship. Someone's clearly wrong.

Fred has up to £15 with me if he wants it. Let's see what the meatball mob think.

[BigAdz]

Taking a real flyer on a potential ante post bet for Cheltenham, before the Stat Pack take a closer look.

In the last 4 years Paul Nichols has really done well in the Fred Winter, two wins, 4 seconds, 1 3rd, 1 4th, 1 5th. Not bad, from 11 runners eh?!

The weights aren't out yet, but it almost feels like a bet opportunity.

He has two that take the eye at this stage. Dolos who ran ok behind the current Triumph Hurdle fav at Chepstow, without looking to be overly exerted. Clearly not a Triumph horse, but looked like it was there to get a tidy mark for this.

The real eyecatcher, however, is a horse called Chameron.
...

In Harry derham's blog today he says Chameron isn't going to the festival and will be aimed at Autueil later. http://www.paulnichollsracing.com/harry-derhams-blog/

Shame. I thought this was a great spot.

Ho hum. Pity.

Glad to see they like Brio Conti though for the Martin Pipe. The nice prices went last week though.

[Cavey007]

Taking a real flyer on a potential ante post bet for Cheltenham, before the Stat Pack take a closer look.

In the last 4 years Paul Nichols has really done well in the Fred Winter, two wins, 4 seconds, 1 3rd, 1 4th, 1 5th. Not bad, from 11 runners eh?!

The weights aren't out yet, but it almost feels like a bet opportunity.

He has two that take the eye at this stage. Dolos who ran ok behind the current Triumph Hurdle fav at Chepstow, without looking to be overly exerted. Clearly not a Triumph horse, but looked like it was there to get a tidy mark for this.

The real eyecatcher, however, is a horse called Chameron.
...

In Harry derham's blog today he says Chameron isn't going to the festival and will be aimed at Autueil later. http://www.paulnichollsracing.com/harry-derhams-blog/

Shame. I thought this was a great spot.

Ho hum. Pity.

Glad to see they like Brio Conti though for the Martin Pipe. The nice prices went last week though.

Balls, that was my first antepost for the festival... Do I have to wait till the week of the festival for it to be declared non runner? Not sure when declarations are, I'm assuming they won't refund until then?

[exstream]

Any basketball wonks have a view on the Raptors for the NBA championship?

45/1 with Patrick Parr. 28/1 generally.

They've signed Serge Ibaka, which I gather is reflective of the team trying to win now, rather than buidling for the future, particularly as they've given up a youngster and a draft pick. Ibaka improves their 3 point game and their defense.

Analytics site, Number Fire, has them as a 7.3% shot at winning the championship. Someone's clearly wrong.

Fred has up to £15 with me if he wants it. Let's see what the meatball mob think.

55 exchange