Of all the sports I have ever bet on or booked seriously basketball is the one I have struggled most to make pay. I think part of it is that there simply isn't the masses of mug punters blindly betting the overhyped teams like in the NFL and because it isn't a sport I was brought up with the more fundamental handicapping is harder and I have had to teach myself. Couple of things I have found useful though:
1. Team news is key and the UK bookies don't respond quick enough. Players like Kobe, Lebron, Wade, Carmelo, Dwight Howard etc are worth 3 or 4 points to a team and if you get the news as it comes out you can beat the moves here (although probably not with the US books) but your accounts won't last long. It is also worth looking at going under totals on this kind of news as that moves a tiny bit slower but is generally worth less (prob max 2.5 points). As I mentioned before half a point is roughly worth
and, unlike the NFL/CFB they are all worth the same so if you can get 10/11 1.5 points off the general US line then it is pretty much worth betting blind. 13 or 13 years ago a couple of mates of mine that went on to make very significant amounts of money punting built their original banks by finding an Asian bookie that didn't move their lines in line with the US market. It is no exaggeration to say they made decent six figure sums in a couple of years without knowing hardly anything about the sport.
2. The Asian books now take the most money on NBA like they do on soccer and the moves happen there first so if you look at someone like
www.sbo.com or
www.ibcbet.com and see a big difference then it is probably worth following.
3. Pace of game is important and certain teams seem to be able to control the pace of the game so when a team that averages 210 points per game plays a team which averages 180 and the total is 195 if you can figure out which style will dominate then it is valuable info.
4. Scheduling is massive and will be more so this year. Teams on road trips where they play 4 games in five nights on the road invariably can't play well the whole time and if they have to go through OT and play the following night it is very tough to play up to their power ratings. Also teams that play the big teams, which this year are probably Boston, Miami and Lakers struggle to get up the game after especially if it is the next night and they have run the big team close.
5. In general NBA is like the other American sports in that actual teams ability is less important in betting than the situations and motivational issues.
Hope this helps a bit but like I said I have always found it harder than other sports to make pay. Oh and definitely trebles....please.
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