The TEMPORARY Nuts - First Hand.......

[Wardonkey]

I might take a moment to prepare myself for a crushing emotional blow, but I would not contemplate folding.  

[77dave]

what a dilema


for me the fact that 3 people have moved in front of you makes me more likely to call than if its just one

if you are considering passing the nuts you have to consider what the others must have in order to call


i would expect someone to be on the flush draw    but surely it has to be the nut flush draw

maybe someone has the jack ten with you so they are no danger

but where you may have the great advantage is if two of the callers have the same draw and are blocking each other

if one has two pair and the other has trips or if two have a flush draw your in great shape

so put your chips in and hope the nuts stays as the nuts

and imagine what  said   what damage could you do with 40k in chips after the first hand  on day 1

[tikay]

Oh YES. Imagine the POWER.......

[WellChief]

If anyone passes they shouldn't be playing poiker

[johnmul99]

i wouldn't have called the pre flop raise. J 10 off has a -ve expectation from any position, especially against a raise infront of you.

[tikay]

i wouldn't have called the pre flop raise. J 10 off has a -ve expectation from any position, especially against a raise infront of you.

Thanks johnmul, & welcome to blonde, an interesting frist Post.

Early in a comp, with the blinds at the minimum level, I would always call, in position, with J-T off, in fact I'd call with a lot worse. A -ve expectation assumes that your cards win or lose at "face value", when in fact, we often enter hands KNOWING we are behind, or likely to be behind, with the sole intention of getting someone "off their hand" or stealing the blinds. So it matters not if you are holding J-T or 2-9, your cards are irrelevent. The flop comes A high, both blinds check, you bet, they pass. So it is not necessarily true that the -/+ve expectations that books recite have too much relevance. Winning players don't have better hands than anyone else, on the whole, they just play bad hands better.

I would think entering most hands with suited connectors also has -ve expectations, but again, many, many, good judges would enter a hand with them, especially in position, & if they miss the flop, as they mostly do, then play themselves out of trouble. But the books will say "the -ve expectation means you must pass". This is where I struggle with poker "textbook" stuff, it preaches "straight up & down" stuff, ABC Poker, & you need a seriously good run of Premium hands to win playing that game.

I can think of a whole lot of blondeites who would call a small R with J-T off with blinds at the minimum level.

WellChief. On the face of it, true, certainly in almost any "ordinary" comp. But, as snoops says, to regular guys like he & I, the WSOP "Biggie" would be the experience of a lifetime, & I'd want to savour every moment of it, be in the comp for a few days, then take it from there. If I was put to the test on the very first hand, with the prospect of busting immediaterly, I am not 100% certain I would be able to get all my chips in. I HOPE I would, but I am sure a few of us might fail the "bottle test". Hence the question! But yes, in a run-of-the-mill comp, the money goes in without a seconds hesitation. As it did yesterday, wiith no regrets, despite the flush hitting.

[Wardonkey]

You'd HAVE to think about it, surely?

I'd certainly be tempted.

I'm not sure I'd be playing my first WSOP main event solely to win. I'd be there for the experience. Not just one 50-50 hand.

But I'm sure I'd still call. I guess quadrupling up would assure me of a good few hours in the comp.

I've thought about these WSOP first hand scenarios many a time.

There is another hand to consider. If they were getting it all in in the first hand of the WSOP I'd expect at least one, probably two of your opponents also has J,10. You do not want to see J,10 of clubs when the cards get turned over.

[tikay]

You'd HAVE to think about it, surely?

I'd certainly be tempted.

I'm not sure I'd be playing my first WSOP main event solely to win. I'd be there for the experience. Not just one 50-50 hand.

But I'm sure I'd still call. I guess quadrupling up would assure me of a good few hours in the comp.

I've thought about these WSOP first hand scenarios many a time.

There is another hand to consider. If they were getting it all in in the first hand of the WSOP I'd expect at least one, probably two of your opponents also has J,10. You do not want to see J,10 of clubs when the cards get turned over.

Too right, but you still call, certainly in a normal comp, but if it were the first hand of the WSOP, & you thought one of them was freerolling with the same hand + flush draw, would you still call?

[Wardonkey]

 

[Wardonkey]

If your up against 2x J,10 and one of them is J,10 of clubs. Then a pass is correct, you can only win 3,333 chips.
Despite last nights bravado I must confess, having slept on it, that I might pass here.

[Dewi_cool]

You have to call, your getting 3/1 and you hold the nuts.

It would be a nasty way to go out, but imagine if you passed and two bricks came on the turn and river. When your out pushing with rubbish on day 2 you'd be thinking 'why didn't I call?'. 

Would you be at all tempted to fold on the first hand of the WSOP main event?

Surely, the other two would not be going all in with draws in the WSOP

[Wardonkey]

A plausable scenario, is that the first guy has AA, second in has J, 10 and the third then has the odds to call with Q,J of clubs.

[thetank]

I'd call, even in the first hand of the WSOP.

8000 entrants, there must be a few who are nutters intent on getting all-in on the first hand no matter what so they have a "story"

If you are up against 2 * J10 then at lest you'll have a story  

You'd HAVE to think about it, surely?

I agree 100%
It's never wrong to think about it. Assuming thinking too much doesn't hurt your game ie, over-thinking a scenario to the point where you draw the wrong conclusions.

[ju5tin]

If you are gambling because you are in the rebuy stage, this play is fine, however, in a freezeout, I believe this play is just too costly and risky.

J10 is an overrated hand at best, here, you flop the nuts but your only 52% to win the hand. And its probably worth pointing out that if A8 had folded and you were up against only 2 hands, your still only 50% to win the hand. Even if you get called just by the flush draw, your still not that far ahead. Worse case scenario is probably against a set and a flushdraw were your only 39% to the sets 36%.

So no matter what you flop with J10 ,after cold calling a raise with at least 4 runners, your probably not going to be far ahead. The wisest play here is probably to pass pre-flop unless your gambling, in which case you shouldnt have a problem calling all the way

[Newmanseye]

Even in the WSOP you can still rebuy for the following day so I would call.

Btw if i have this wrong please feel free to shoot me down its secondhand information for me.