Tips for Tikay

[Horneris]

One of my horses to follow from last season makes its seasonal debut tonight at Kempton. Fallen for a star in the 1925 available at 7/1 generally.

Ran for Gosden last year and was widely expected to make a better 4 year old as it was a late starter on the track. All weather and handicap debut, expected to be a good horse this year for the Cumani stable. Think it's well worth a few points win at a general 7/1 in a weak but open handicap.

Good luck if having a nibble.

Of the few horses I've had a word for today, two of them run in this race. Higher Power (stable out of form but handicap mark thought to be v generous) and Petrucci (working well with Dartmouth apparently) so I think this race is well worth watching but best left alone.

[Doobs]

Now we have hit 11k, I think it must be about time for peak banzai.

It is generally accepted in formula 1 that the engine has been letting down the McLaren over the last couple of years.  This year it has definitely improved so that they are genuine mid-tablers.  Over the last few days, I have heard it mentioned that they think they have the 3rd best chassis a couple of times.  Here is Alonso earlier   

http://www.crash.net/f1/news/230415/1/alonso-mclaren-has-stronger-chassis-than-ferrari.html


“We are behind Mercedes and Red Bull but they are very strong so we need to show in the next few races that we can improve our efficiency and mechanically grip,” Alonso said. “Maybe it is a surprise we are in front of many of our competitors but it is not for us. Good to be in front of Williams, Force India, Ferrari in terms of chassis.

I am fairly sure I read somewhere they were 3rd quickest in the tricky sector at the Spanish Grand Prix.

There is some testing going on in Barcelona today and Button is topping the charts, with a time a second quicker that in qualifying for the Spanish Grand Prix.  Of course they could have put something illegal on the car, but I think it is a sign they are still getting quicker.

http://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/barcelona-f1-test-button-leads-first-morning-for-mclaren-737589/

A week on Sunday we have the Monaco grand prix.  This is likely the grand prix where the engine makes least difference and the chassis is all important.  It is also the grand prix that has produced a number of shocks over the years.  Senna "won" here in the terrible Toleman; Trulli and Panis managed their only wins here;  and an inferior Rosberg has managed to beat Hamilton here 3 years running!

So I think we have a perfect combination here for a very good McLaren performance.  We could easily see a McLaren or 2 in the first 3 rows of the grid.

After that we have realistic hopes for a coming together of some Mercedes or Red Bulls, and there has been many a careless driver clipped a wall or hit a backmarker here.

There probably doesn't need to be much more justifcation for backing a 200/1 chance.

Button is 200/1 in several spots, and 250/1 with Shy.  Alonso is 200/1 in several spots.  It really is a shame we don't get 3 spots on each way now, but I think we can manage with 2.

Can we try and get as much as we can on Alonso (150 up) and Button (200 up) each way.  I guess you can stop once we get to £40 each way, not that we will get that far.  I managed to get a little more than that.  Choral is probably a good place to start.

If you fail you can have a fiver e/w Alonso at 150/1 and Button at 200/1 with me (I guess the prices aren't going to hold for long).

These are bets which will almost always lose, but I'm pretty sure we are the correct side of value with them, & I thought they were a great spot. Be handy if Nico & Lewis bang heads again on the first lap, too.

Love the Monaco GP, always a viewing highlight.

I love this bet.  Shame it got restricted by Tighty.  The price is going to look fantastic if they get on the front 3 rows.

I know these things are fairly meaningless, but I have loooked at the long range weather forecast on a couple of sites, and both have a bit of rain forecast for the end of next week, which can only help the bet. http://www.accuweather.com/en/mc/monaco/5174/daily-weather-forecast/5174?day=11. 

I do tend to take such things with a pinch of salt, but using the Peter27 happiness index, Jenson Button is in a good place right now too.

Click to see full-size image.

Tough life huh?

Note.  other pictures have been excluded as people may be at work. 
 

[arbboy]

Nice big priced SDS winner in the first at Bath there.  Lovely way to start the day!

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/bath/14:55/winner

His good thing for the day is cracking ew value.  11/10 getting 2/9 to place.  Place is 1/8 on machine.  Would recommend £100 ew but not entirely sure fred likes this type of free cash from previous posts and rec's on this type.  Win is under as well on bf.

sky bet price boosted it to 6/5 if you can get that then obv even better bet.  Probably would rec £250 ew at 6/5 given the increased edge.  Obviously fred can't do sky but for those who can that is the level of staking i would be using.

If you shift the win part of the bet on bf at no win no loss i would happily have £500 ew on the horse and just keep the £500 at 2/9 on the place bet where the real edge is.

[TightEnd]

Angelo Mathews is probably the last great Sri Lankan test cricketer of the 2005-15 generation. He averages over 50 in 97 test innings and is a proper leader, a really good captain

of that generation:

Sangakkara has retired from International cricket
Jayawardene has retired from International cricket
Dilshan doesnt play tests anymore
Neither does Malinga
Muralitheran was a one off
Prasad the best bowler is injured
Herath is the best current spinner, but a big ask for him to overly influence a test series in May in England

the result is that the team that plays this test series tomorrow is in a rebuilding phase.

England are 1/2 to win the series and only 2/1 to win it 3-0

two years ago when Sri Lanka were in their last hurrah they won the series at Headingley and England were post Strauss, pre-Root and rebuilding themselves

Angelo Mathews scored a 100 (160 at Headingley) and three 50s in that series and scored 306 runs

Click to see full-size image.

Since then Sri Lanka have won only six of 16 Tests, losing nine. They haven't played test cricket this year, and in their last outing were routed by NZ in seam friendly conditions in Hamilton

In their last 20 Test innings they have reached 400 only once and 300 only another five times. Seven times they have been bowled out for 206 or under.

the likely top 5 to start the series is

Karunaratne (736 test runs in the last 12 months)
Silva, a 21yo with 3 tests
Mendis, test average of 30
Chandimal, test average of 45, 820 test runs over the last 12 months
Mathews, the captain

Normally you'd only look at the top 3 or 4 in the line up for a top batsman bet but in early season English conditions, and two of the tests at Headingley and Durham, this top order is going to be all out to survive against Anderson/Broad and Finn with the new ball

So batting 5 doesn't necessarily preclude Mathews from consideration here

In the last two years, the now-retired Sangakkara is the only Sri Lankan within 600 runs of Mathews' tally of 1707 Test runs.

Yet we can get 7/2 about Mathews top scoring over the three tests.

Before i looked i had him in my mind at 5/2-ish

Chandimal has one score over 50 in his last ten innings across all formats and Karunaratne has to open up. Avoiding this new ball is an advantage for Mathews

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/england-v-sri-lanka/england-sri-lanka-test-series/top-sri-lanka-batsman


tikay if you have re-funded 888 could we have £50 at 7-2 Angelo Mathews Top Sri Lanka batsman in the series that starts tomorrow please?

[TightEnd]

Nice big priced SDS winner in the first at Bath there.  Lovely way to start the day!

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/bath/14:55/winner

His good thing for the day is cracking ew value.  11/10 getting 2/9 to place.  Place is 1/8 on machine.  Would recommend £100 ew but not entirely sure fred likes this type of free cash from previous posts and rec's on this type.  Win is under as well on bf.

sky bet price boosted it to 6/5 if you can get that then obv even better bet.  Probably would rec £250 ew at 6/5 given the increased edge.  Obviously fred can't do sky but for those who can that is the level of staking i would be using.

If you shift the win part of the bet on bf at no win no loss i would happily have £500 ew on the horse and just keep the £500 at 2/9 on the place bet where the real edge is.

the only odds against is

6/5 sky
11/10 888 and stan j

so none of that is possible

evens best and 10/11 best where we have enough £ to do lumpy e/w

i'm assuming its not an account closer either?

anyway, thats why i cant really do it. unlimited accounts or shops, different story

 

[arbboy]

Nice big priced SDS winner in the first at Bath there.  Lovely way to start the day!

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/bath/14:55/winner

His good thing for the day is cracking ew value.  11/10 getting 2/9 to place.  Place is 1/8 on machine.  Would recommend £100 ew but not entirely sure fred likes this type of free cash from previous posts and rec's on this type.  Win is under as well on bf.

sky bet price boosted it to 6/5 if you can get that then obv even better bet.  Probably would rec £250 ew at 6/5 given the increased edge.  Obviously fred can't do sky but for those who can that is the level of staking i would be using.

If you shift the win part of the bet on bf at no win no loss i would happily have £500 ew on the horse and just keep the £500 at 2/9 on the place bet where the real edge is.

the only odds against is

6/5 sky
11/10 888 and stan j

so none of that is possible

evens best and 10/11 best where we have enough £ to do lumpy e/w

i'm assuming its not an account closer either?

anyway, thats why i cant really do it. unlimited accounts or shops, different story

 

£100 ew on that wouldn't even get noticed.  They would just assume you had £200 on the fav win only when the bet hits the betslip viewer in the loltrading room.  Who backs 11/10 shots ew after all?   

[Doobs]

Nice big priced SDS winner in the first at Bath there.  Lovely way to start the day!

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/bath/14:55/winner

His good thing for the day is cracking ew value.  11/10 getting 2/9 to place.  Place is 1/8 on machine.  Would recommend £100 ew but not entirely sure fred likes this type of free cash from previous posts and rec's on this type.  Win is under as well on bf.

sky bet price boosted it to 6/5 if you can get that then obv even better bet.  Probably would rec £250 ew at 6/5 given the increased edge.  Obviously fred can't do sky but for those who can that is the level of staking i would be using.

If you shift the win part of the bet on bf at no win no loss i would happily have £500 ew on the horse and just keep the £500 at 2/9 on the place bet where the real edge is.

the only odds against is

6/5 sky
11/10 888 and stan j

so none of that is possible

evens best and 10/11 best where we have enough £ to do lumpy e/w

i'm assuming its not an account closer either?

anyway, thats why i cant really do it. unlimited accounts or shops, different story

 

£100 ew on that wouldn't even get noticed.  They would just assume you had £200 on the fav win only when the bet hits the betslip viewer in the loltrading room.  Who backs 11/10 shots ew after all?   

Aren't you losing nearly 10% on the win price if you take 10/11 and that is what you gain on the place price.  If you can take 6/5 it is a no brainer.

[arbboy]

Nice big priced SDS winner in the first at Bath there.  Lovely way to start the day!

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/bath/14:55/winner

His good thing for the day is cracking ew value.  11/10 getting 2/9 to place.  Place is 1/8 on machine.  Would recommend £100 ew but not entirely sure fred likes this type of free cash from previous posts and rec's on this type.  Win is under as well on bf.

sky bet price boosted it to 6/5 if you can get that then obv even better bet.  Probably would rec £250 ew at 6/5 given the increased edge.  Obviously fred can't do sky but for those who can that is the level of staking i would be using.

If you shift the win part of the bet on bf at no win no loss i would happily have £500 ew on the horse and just keep the £500 at 2/9 on the place bet where the real edge is.

the only odds against is

6/5 sky
11/10 888 and stan j

so none of that is possible

evens best and 10/11 best where we have enough £ to do lumpy e/w

i'm assuming its not an account closer either?

anyway, thats why i cant really do it. unlimited accounts or shops, different story

 

£100 ew on that wouldn't even get noticed.  They would just assume you had £200 on the fav win only when the bet hits the betslip viewer in the loltrading room.  Who backs 11/10 shots ew after all?  

Aren't you losing nearly 10% on the win price if you take 10/11 and that is what you gain on the place price.  If you can take 6/5 it is a no brainer.

Correct i wouldn't be backing it ew at 10/11.

1/16 to place now on bf and that 1/16 is false because it is being held up by arbers so it should be shorter than that.

[tikay]

Angelo Mathews is probably the last great Sri Lankan test cricketer of the 2005-15 generation. He averages over 50 in 97 test innings and is a proper leader, a really good captain

of that generation:

Sangakkara has retired from International cricket
Jayawardene has retired from International cricket
Dilshan doesnt play tests anymore
Neither does Malinga
Muralitheran was a one off
Prasad the best bowler is injured
Herath is the best current spinner, but a big ask for him to overly influence a test series in May in England

the result is that the team that plays this test series tomorrow is in a rebuilding phase.

England are 1/2 to win the series and only 2/1 to win it 3-0

two years ago when Sri Lanka were in their last hurrah they won the series at Headingley and England were post Strauss, pre-Root and rebuilding themselves

Angelo Mathews scored a 100 (160 at Headingley) and three 50s in that series and scored 306 runs

Click to see full-size image.

Since then Sri Lanka have won only six of 16 Tests, losing nine. They haven't played test cricket this year, and in their last outing were routed by NZ in seam friendly conditions in Hamilton

In their last 20 Test innings they have reached 400 only once and 300 only another five times. Seven times they have been bowled out for 206 or under.

the likely top 5 to start the series is

Karunaratne (736 test runs in the last 12 months)
Silva, a 21yo with 3 tests
Mendis, test average of 30
Chandimal, test average of 45, 820 test runs over the last 12 months
Mathews, the captain

Normally you'd only look at the top 3 or 4 in the line up for a top batsman bet but in early season English conditions, and two of the tests at Headingley and Durham, this top order is going to be all out to survive against Anderson/Broad and Finn with the new ball

So batting 5 doesn't necessarily preclude Mathews from consideration here

In the last two years, the now-retired Sangakkara is the only Sri Lankan within 600 runs of Mathews' tally of 1707 Test runs.

Yet we can get 7/2 about Mathews top scoring over the three tests.

Before i looked i had him in my mind at 5/2-ish

Chandimal has one score over 50 in his last ten innings across all formats and Karunaratne has to open up. Avoiding this new ball is an advantage for Mathews

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/england-v-sri-lanka/england-sri-lanka-test-series/top-sri-lanka-batsman


tikay if you have re-funded 888 could we have £50 at 7-2 Angelo Mathews Top Sri Lanka batsman in the series that starts tomorrow please?

Cracking write up, thanks Rich.

Let's get on board, please.

I have topped up the Account, but can't find the Market - can you place the bet, please?

I'll send the log-in details shortly.

[arbboy]

Easiest 2/9 winner in history.

[The Camel]

Nice big priced SDS winner in the first at Bath there.  Lovely way to start the day!

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/bath/14:55/winner

His good thing for the day is cracking ew value.  11/10 getting 2/9 to place.  Place is 1/8 on machine.  Would recommend £100 ew but not entirely sure fred likes this type of free cash from previous posts and rec's on this type.  Win is under as well on bf.

sky bet price boosted it to 6/5 if you can get that then obv even better bet.  Probably would rec £250 ew at 6/5 given the increased edge.  Obviously fred can't do sky but for those who can that is the level of staking i would be using.

If you shift the win part of the bet on bf at no win no loss i would happily have £500 ew on the horse and just keep the £500 at 2/9 on the place bet where the real edge is.

the only odds against is

6/5 sky
11/10 888 and stan j

so none of that is possible

evens best and 10/11 best where we have enough £ to do lumpy e/w

i'm assuming its not an account closer either?

anyway, thats why i cant really do it. unlimited accounts or shops, different story

 

£100 ew on that wouldn't even get noticed.  They would just assume you had £200 on the fav win only when the bet hits the betslip viewer in the loltrading room.  Who backs 11/10 shots ew after all?   

Thankyou arbboy xx

[BorntoBubble]

Cheers Arb x

#easiestwinever

[TightEnd]

the 7/2 at 888 had become 11/4

so took a smaller bet at the last 100/30 place

Angelo Mathews England - Sri Lanka Test Series Top Sri Lanka Batsman
10/3
Total Stake: £30.00
Potential Returns: £129.90

[Doobs]

Cheers Arb x

#easiestwinever

very good, cheers Arb.  Didn't like to see the otehr horse break down though.

[arbboy]

Worth losing an account to get £5k ew on that when you getting 1/5 about a 1/16 shot (which was only 1/16 because arbers were holding the 1/16 up probably more like a 1/50 shot).  How many times can you seriously back a 1/50 shot at 1/5 for decent money nowadays?