Cycling Betting & Discussion.

[tikay]

First prices from PP

Ewan Evs
Nizzolo 4/1
Pelucchi 4/1
Wippert 5/1
10/1 bar

Interesting betting especially as Pelucchi has already abandoned the race. Either very careless or very crafty from Paddy. It highlights how clueless the big firms can be, especially in these lower tier races.

Bit naughty, that.

[TommyPlus]

First prices from PP

Ewan Evs
Nizzolo 4/1
Pelucchi 4/1
Wippert 5/1
10/1 bar

Interesting betting especially as Pelucchi has already abandoned the race. Either very careless or very crafty from Paddy. It highlights how clueless the big firms can be, especially in these lower tier races.

Bit naughty, that.

I tend to give them the benefit of the doubt as surely anyone who planned to back him would be aware he was a NR. Hopefully.
To me it shows how lazy firms can be when it comes to cycling. Nothing like the glory days of the ONCE spread bet but still enough mistakes for us to be profitable. Especially early doors. You really have to be waiting for the first couple of firms to price up and pounce.

[TommyPlus]

1. Gerrans
2. Swift
3. Nizzolo

Early season mistakes from me also. Sky smashed it over the last climb and then all the way to the line which resulted in most pure sprinters being dropped.
Swift couldn't finish off the good work as he was beaten by Gerrans who increases his race lead, somewhat surprisingly. He is clearly is top form heading into the showdown on Wilunga Hill tomorrow.

Poor start for me. Hoping for improvement as the season goes on!

In running total -4 points

[Tonji]

Good to see Kittel back.

[Tonji]

Spent an hour looking at stage 3 Dubai Tour.

All comes down to the final km or so with a final wall



http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-of-dubai/tour-of-dubai-stage-3/winner

Gilbert an obv choice, but this is only his 3rd day of racing.

Lobato, does not look to be as sharp as last year.

Cancellara, however does look leaner than ever. This finish looks ideal for him to test his power ahead of the spring classics. He already has a win at Trofeo Serra de Tramuntana. 7/1 looks a touch of value to me.

thoughts anyone?

[Tonji]

had a dabble 15/2 bfsb

[nellberg]

Remember that from last year, sick ride from Degenkolb given he's a sprinter.

Lobato was 3rd last year in this if I recall correctly, but should struggle to climb as well as Gilbert and Cancellera.

top 3 in the betting look solid, Costa would interest me but unsure how motivated/fit he is.

good luck with Spartacus 

[Tonji]

Remember that from last year, sick ride from Degenkolb given he's a sprinter.

Lobato was 3rd last year in this if I recall correctly, but should struggle to climb as well as Gilbert and Cancellera.

top 3 in the betting look solid, Costa would interest me but unsure how motivated/fit he is.

good luck with Spartacus 

thanks nell, early season winner would be nice.

[TommyPlus]

Spent an hour looking at stage 3 Dubai Tour.

All comes down to the final km or so with a final wall



http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-of-dubai/tour-of-dubai-stage-3/winner

Gilbert an obv choice, but this is only his 3rd day of racing.

Lobato, does not look to be as sharp as last year.

Cancellara, however does look leaner than ever. This finish looks ideal for him to test his power ahead of the spring classics. He already has a win at Trofeo Serra de Tramuntana. 7/1 looks a touch of value to me.

thoughts anyone?

Good write up pal. Followed you in

[TommyPlus]

Stage 4 in Dubai will be in all likelihood fought out between the quick men.

Kittel dominated the only clean sprint finish so far on stage 1 but is very short at 8/11.
A dirty ew play on Mark Cavendish is recommended for a couple of reasons.
1. On stage 1 Cavendish had to start his sprint wide and with no cover, hopefully he can find Kittel's wheel as the German opens up and have a better chance to come around him.
2. Kittel rode a fine race yesterday to finish within 4 seconds of Lobato on Hatta Dam, so whilst this shows he is in form he may have entered the red and lost a little of his reserves for today. Cavendish was held up again and free wheeled home five minutes later.
3. Cavendish was clear second on stage one and is the only other top level sprinter in the race so if Kittel blows everyone away you'd fancy Cavendish to finish second anyway.
4. Cavendish is 11/2 1/5 odds 1,2,3 or 5/1 1/4 odds 1,2,3

Recommend 2 points ew either price.
https://m.oddschecker.com/t/cycling/tour-of-dubai/tour-of-dubai-stage-4/winner

Stage one last km:
http://www.steephill.tv/players/youtube3/?title=Last+Km+of+Stage+1&dashboard=dubai-tour&id=qguWZ_MTIEg&yr=2016

[TommyPlus]

Poor effort from Cavendish as he finishes 3rd behind the dominating Kittel and Viviani.
No harm done and even enough profit for a few pints of Kazakhstan's finest ale this evening.
Gl all and enjoy a prosperous weekened

[TommyPlus]

Tour of Oman Stage 4

Richie Porte was amongst he pre race favourites but he has shown no inclination to race for the win preferring to treat the race as some warm weather training as he looks ahead to more prestigious targets later in the season.
However he has said he would have a "dig" on today's queen stage and at 22/1 it's hard to resist a little stab especially as the field, Nibali apart, is relatively week.

Recommend 1pt ew Richie Porte to win stage 4 of the Tour of Oman at 22/1(William Hill)

https://m.oddschecker.com/t/cycling/tour-of-oman/tour-of-oman-stage-4/winner

[Steveswift]

Thought that I should post. I know nothing about cycling but love to watch Tour De France and just wanted to say I love your posts and the effort you put in.  When I get more time I may watch other events.  In the mean time keep up the good work.

Regards


Steve

[TommyPlus]

Thought that I should post. I know nothing about cycling but love to watch Tour De France and just wanted to say I love your posts and the effort you put in.  When I get more time I may watch other events.  In the mean time keep up the good work.

Regards


Steve

Thanks Steve, that's a very satisfying post to read. I started off just like you watching only the tour and gradually my interest increased until it exploded into a full blown obsession.
I must admit I enjoy the gambling angle almost as much as the sport itself, so many different possibilities and permutations that when the lucky pin finally hits the target you feel invincible.
Hopefully for the grand tours I'll put up a daily preview as the form is usually rock solid and the races are(in theory) easier to read and bet on.

[TommyPlus]

No luck during the desert swing. The season is yet to warm up so I'm looking ahead to a couple of monuments where the form is solid as everyone is trying their hardest.
Like comparing an October novice hurdle at Fakenham to the Cheltenham festival. In these races everyone should be peaking and trying.

If I may continue with the laborious horsey metaphor I've chose a couple of improving types with course and distance form.

Milan - San Remo - March 19th

The longest single day race of the season at a mind boggling 298kms. It's one for the real hard men. Not much climbing as such but two short sharp climbs inside the last 25kms are ensconced in cycling folklore.
The Cipressa and the Poggio are designed to sap the last dregs of energy from the sprinters who are licking their lips at the flat finale.
If and its a fair sized if, a top notch sprinter can make it over the Poggio with the lead group then they would fancy their chances against the likely strong men remaining.
This brings me to Nacer Bouhanni, the Frenchman did the tough task of hanging in last year then managed to balls up his sprint and finish 6th.
He was comfortable the strongest sprinter on paper and was clearly upset at messing it up...
... However that was early days with his new team Confidis, he is only 25 years old so reasonable progress could be expected
and he won a 'similar' type of stage in the Tour Of Andalucia last week.

Recommend 3pts EW at 18/1(hills)

https://m.oddschecker.com/t/cycling/one-day-classics/milan-sanremo/winner

Ronde Van Vlaanderen - April 3rd

The Tour Of Flanders in a Belgian cobbled classic of 256km including 18 climbs(8 of them cobbled) and 7 cobbled flat sections.
Riding over cobbles is one of the most feared and specialised disciplines in all of pro cycling. You're either good at it or your not. A huge field of riders can be narrowed down to 12-15 possible winners simply due to their bike handling skills.
Cobbled classics are a combination of skill, determination and good luck and I bloody love them.
So if I was to tell you that a rider is available at 33/1 after finishing 5th last year as a mere 21 year old you'd think I was joking...
Step forward Tiesj Benoot a rider for the Lotto Soudal team.
A popular tactic in these races is for teams to throw in all their best cobbled riders and see how it goes with little structure or designated team leader. Then come 25-30km to go, approaching the Paterberg climb, repeated attacks will be made and one will stick. Maybe it will stay away, maybe not. It's the strongest that will win. So I'm pinning my colours to Benoot surely finding a little more strength, tactical nous and maybe team support than he had last year.

Recommend 2pts EW at 33/1(365)

https://m.oddschecker.com/t/cycling/one-day-classics/tour-of-flanders/winner

Thanks for reading and if you'd like to read more about these historic races then click these:-
http://inrng.com/2015/03/milan-sanremo-preview-2015/
http://www.cyclosport.org/event/04-Apr-2015/Belgium/tour-of-flanders-ronde-van-vlaanderen-cyclo.html