COVID19

[Marky147]

Media obviously lead with all the good indicators, I presume?

[RED-DOG]

Vaccination to include over 65s.

So, do 65yos get it?

[Doobs]

Vaccination to include over 65s.

So, do 65yos get it?

I assume so, as you are over 65 straight after your birthday?

[RED-DOG]

Vaccination to include over 65s.

So, do 65yos get it?

I assume so, as you are over 65 straight after your birthday?

That was my argument but I wanted confirmation.

[Doobs]

This refers to 65 and older as most at risk, so think you are good

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccination-guide-for-older-adults/covid-19-vaccination-guide-for-older-adults

The official vaccine plan document originally said 65-69 too.

[StuartHopkin]

Just going to do a very quick update, as everything is looking good, well as good as Covid 5,000 deaths a week can look.

Covid Deaths did peak on the 19 January at just over 1,200 a day, and are now likely below a 1,000 a day now (There were 900 or so 7 days ago, so probably down to about 700 today).   

Hospitalisations were well over 4,000 a day at peak and they have dropped noticeably over the last week to about 2,500.  The number of people with Covid in hospital has fallen from 40k to nearer 30k, so hopefully the medical staff are getting some kind of respite, though they are still clearly very busym and I don't think ICU ares down as much.  I am not checking now, but they weren't far off their peak a couple of days ago.

Cases have also fallen rapidly down to about 20k from about 50k at peak (they were all over the place due to the bank holidays at Christmas, but I don't think the 7 day average got much higher than 50k).  I wouldn't be too excited about this one, as they still aren't as low as they were when mini lockdown 2 ended, so those calling for a quick end to lockdown are clearly a bit premature.

We are getting to the time when we should start seeing the effects of the vaccinations and deaths amongst those in their 80s should start dropping noticeably.  We may well be seeeing that already, but I haven't got figures split by age group now and Match of the Day starts soon.  I'll have nosey around tomorrow.

Marky has posted Dr John's Astra Zeneca update and it all looks very promising, with better results with 1 12 week gap than a 6 week one.  Numbers aren't high enough in the trial to be absolutely sure that serious illness is a thing of the past after vaccine.  Given how few over 80s they have in the trial, I dare say we really should refrain from making this claim until that data comes through, but for now results are looking very good.

All good news, so goodnight all.   

More good news over the last week.

Cases are now down to about 10k to 15k a day.  There have been a lot of calls to open up now, but this seems premature.  We were at these levels when we ended mini lockdown 2, and that rapidly turned to shit.  This time a lot of the vulnerable are already vaccinated, which is obviously a positive, but hospitalisations are still well above November levels.  It just all seems premature.  Hopsitalisations are currently just below 30k (I can see 26k, but there may be some reporting delays).  By contrast, hospitalisations were nearer 15,000 when we ended mini lockdown 2.  It feels like it may well be OK to lift some restrictions outside, but leave much of the rest for around when schools reopen at the beginning of March.

Deaths in England and Wales are definitely below 1,000 a day now; I said about 700 when I posted last week, but it was a little over that.  Given they are now falling by about 20% a week, I am guessing we are down at about 600 a day now. This is around double the level we were at when the mini lockdown 2 ended, and way above the number when the first lockdown ended.

Having said all this, the weather can't get any colder and vaccination numbers are still flying.  I am pretty optimistic overall, and don't see a wave of future lockdowns, even if the South African variant becomes the dominant one.

 

Although I would love to go to the pub it really has got to be slow and steady now surely?
They have so much information gathered over the past year to help them get this plan right?

The only thing that should be confirmed on the 22nd is that schools will go back on the 8th.
Everything else should be based on criteria being met / a traffic light system.

Do you think we will see a return to the tiers by area?

[Doobs]

Just going to do a very quick update, as everything is looking good, well as good as Covid 5,000 deaths a week can look.

Covid Deaths did peak on the 19 January at just over 1,200 a day, and are now likely below a 1,000 a day now (There were 900 or so 7 days ago, so probably down to about 700 today).   

Hospitalisations were well over 4,000 a day at peak and they have dropped noticeably over the last week to about 2,500.  The number of people with Covid in hospital has fallen from 40k to nearer 30k, so hopefully the medical staff are getting some kind of respite, though they are still clearly very busym and I don't think ICU ares down as much.  I am not checking now, but they weren't far off their peak a couple of days ago.

Cases have also fallen rapidly down to about 20k from about 50k at peak (they were all over the place due to the bank holidays at Christmas, but I don't think the 7 day average got much higher than 50k).  I wouldn't be too excited about this one, as they still aren't as low as they were when mini lockdown 2 ended, so those calling for a quick end to lockdown are clearly a bit premature.

We are getting to the time when we should start seeing the effects of the vaccinations and deaths amongst those in their 80s should start dropping noticeably.  We may well be seeeing that already, but I haven't got figures split by age group now and Match of the Day starts soon.  I'll have nosey around tomorrow.

Marky has posted Dr John's Astra Zeneca update and it all looks very promising, with better results with 1 12 week gap than a 6 week one.  Numbers aren't high enough in the trial to be absolutely sure that serious illness is a thing of the past after vaccine.  Given how few over 80s they have in the trial, I dare say we really should refrain from making this claim until that data comes through, but for now results are looking very good.

All good news, so goodnight all.   

More good news over the last week.

Cases are now down to about 10k to 15k a day.  There have been a lot of calls to open up now, but this seems premature.  We were at these levels when we ended mini lockdown 2, and that rapidly turned to shit.  This time a lot of the vulnerable are already vaccinated, which is obviously a positive, but hospitalisations are still well above November levels.  It just all seems premature.  Hopsitalisations are currently just below 30k (I can see 26k, but there may be some reporting delays).  By contrast, hospitalisations were nearer 15,000 when we ended mini lockdown 2.  It feels like it may well be OK to lift some restrictions outside, but leave much of the rest for around when schools reopen at the beginning of March.

Deaths in England and Wales are definitely below 1,000 a day now; I said about 700 when I posted last week, but it was a little over that.  Given they are now falling by about 20% a week, I am guessing we are down at about 600 a day now. This is around double the level we were at when the mini lockdown 2 ended, and way above the number when the first lockdown ended.

Having said all this, the weather can't get any colder and vaccination numbers are still flying.  I am pretty optimistic overall, and don't see a wave of future lockdowns, even if the South African variant becomes the dominant one.

 

Although I would love to go to the pub it really has got to be slow and steady now surely?
They have so much information gathered over the past year to help them get this plan right?

The only thing that should be confirmed on the 22nd is that schools will go back on the 8th.
Everything else should be based on criteria being met / a traffic light system.

Do you think we will see a return to the tiers by area?

I don't really have any contacts in high places, so can't really add much.  I don't think they should be stopping lockdown if some areas still need to be in something like level 4.   I don't think it will be long now, and people should be optimistic looking foward. 

[DaveShoelace]

Vaccination to include over 65s.

So, do 65yos get it?

My Father in Law is bang on 65 and he just had his

[RED-DOG]

Vaccination to include over 65s.

So, do 65yos get it?

My Father in Law is bang on 65 and he just had his

Boom!

Did they call him in and where does he live?

[Doobs]

Looking at this chart, it confirms the numbers in ICUs are expected to fall last

https://www.covid-arg.com/post/completing-the-vaccine-priority-groups



Looking at that, it seems deaths will be around the 10% of the peak by the end of March, but people in ICU will only have dropped by 50% from peak.

There seems little reason for people to worry too much about UK holidays in the summer.

[Marky147]

My old man getting his today, and he's 65. Got a text on Monday and easy to book just like mine.

Bit of a song and dance from mother that he got contacted first, as she's 66

Thankfully they contacted her today, and she has hers on Thursday.

[Marky147]

Chris Snowdon is getting stuck into some of the modelling, as they seem to suggest there could be 2,000 deaths a day in August?

https://velvetgloveironfist.blogspot.com/2021/02/the-covid-modellers-have-jumped-shark.html

[Doobs]

Talking of travel, Ivor retweeted this a couple of days ago. 

https://twitter.com/UKTwinds/status/1359476778096599041

Anyway I had a nosey around; look at the state of this "travel agent".

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/12188399

They haven't even managed to raise the £13 to file their confirmation statement.

and almost got dissolved

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/12188399/filing-history

Meanwhile they are getting press for refusing to sell flights with Qantas and picking fights with Saga.

And it states their managing director is 28, but is now on his 4th twitter handle.

https://twitter.com/MoriartyProfJ3/status/1359899794148384774


https://twitter.com/MoriartyProfJ3/status/1359899425515188228

Good luck to those buying holidays off him.

[Doobs]

Chris Snowdon is getting stuck into some of the modelling, as they seem to suggest there could be 2,000 deaths a day in August?

https://velvetgloveironfist.blogspot.com/2021/02/the-covid-modellers-have-jumped-shark.html

There are idiots on both sides, and these projections look fairly pessimistic at best. 

It does feel a bit harsh to throw current figures at someone who published their results a month ago.  Why assume such low vaccination take up a month ago when we know there are higher proportions now?  Well, duh!

Snowdon is probably right to have a dig, as it all looks way too pessimistic. but maybe should have done it a month ago before we had all the recent positive news.

[Marky147]

NoTradeWinds, more likely.

Seen him on Twitter a bit the last few weeks, and his 93% false positive is no shock.

He seems to be someone who hops on both sides of the fence, though.

Railing against the Cummins monolith is a full-time job, so not surprising he's behind on lots of things.

Should add the disclaimer Ivor adds 'too busy to read it all'

Before explaining why it's wrong/right, depending on which narrative it supports