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Tips for Tikay
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Topic: Tips for Tikay (Read 13507827 times)
Pompeynick
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #130650 on:
October 22, 2017, 07:50:23 PM »
Quote from: tikay on October 22, 2017, 07:47:50 PM
We can safely describe that utter bollox as "underwhelming", assuming we wish to be polite.
I take it he will not be making a guest appearance at SPT Brighton.
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tikay
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #130651 on:
October 22, 2017, 07:53:58 PM »
Quote from: Pompeynick on October 22, 2017, 07:50:23 PM
Quote from: tikay on October 22, 2017, 07:47:50 PM
We can safely describe that utter bollox as "underwhelming", assuming we wish to be polite.
I take it he will not be making a guest appearance at SPT Brighton.
Ha, dead right. If he does, I'll be throwing a sickie.
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All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link -
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(copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
McGlashan
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #130652 on:
October 22, 2017, 08:04:15 PM »
Even when you know its coming, hearing Buffers net worth of 400million dollars is laugh out loud funny. I wonder if Ant and Dec had to pay him any royalties.
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doubleup
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #130653 on:
October 22, 2017, 08:19:14 PM »
Quote from: Doobs on October 22, 2017, 07:39:52 PM
Quote from: Peter-27 on October 21, 2017, 07:21:23 PM
Quote from: Doobs on October 15, 2017, 04:31:35 PM
Quote from: Peter-27 on October 15, 2017, 10:23:14 AM
Quote from: Doobs on October 08, 2017, 11:25:26 AM
Quote from: Peter-27 on October 08, 2017, 08:31:02 AM
Quote from: Doobs on October 08, 2017, 08:09:41 AM
Quote from: Peter-27 on October 08, 2017, 05:59:02 AM
Quote from: Tal on October 08, 2017, 05:22:29 AM
Overdue? He had enough of those last season.
Lewis only had two DNF's last season, which was very, very good when compared with everyone else.
apart from Nico...
7/1 isn't even a great price on either of the Mercedes to retire. Betting on something because it hasn't happened for a while seems like wonky thinking.
Indeed. Nico had one. Ricciardo actually finished every race, and Perez classified in every race.
Not sure I entirely agree, law of averages suggests every car will have at least one mechanical failure during the season. I think I would always be happy to take 7/1 at this stage of the season on a car which has yet to suffer retirement. Happy to be convinced otherwise though, as I'm not 100% confident in my logic there.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages
Depending on context or application it can be considered a valid common-sense observation or a misunderstanding of probability. This notion can lead to fallacious thinking when one becomes convinced that a particular outcome must come soon simply because it has not occurred recently
At the start of the season, you can look at all the stats and decide Lewis is going to retire one race in ten (or whatever it is), so the odds on a retirement is 9/1. If he doesn't retire in the first 9 races, that doesn't mean he is "due one" in the next race. The odds are still going to be 9/1. If anything, you could learn that maybe the Mercedes has got even more reliable than you thought, and that 9/1 is now too short. There are always going to be occasions where retirement is more likely; like if the track is attritional, like Monaco; or the weather is really hot; or maybe the engine is reaching the end of its expected lifespan, but none of those will be because he is "due one".
I would say that the law of averages is right up there with "Momentum" as a bad reason to make a bet. Will leave the momentum one to Camel, I can't hear that word in a commentary without thinking of The Camel these days.
I understand the principle of the law of averages, and I can't directly argue with anything you've said. However, I think you've completely skimmed over a key component, cumulative effect. This isn't red/black roulette scenario because car components (at least the ones that are carry over) degrade over time which directly increases the chance of a failure at the next race. Of course I don't know Mercedes' component rotation, but I could take an educated guess, and I would be certain that many components have been on that car since the season began. It's worth noting that the component reconditioning process only happens following a shunt or reliability issue due to logistics.
Perhaps another much simpler way of looking at it is that if you look back through history, it's fairly rare for a driver to go a whole season without a retirement during a circa 20 race season. The last five times this happened was:
Daniel Ricciardo - 2016
Max Chilton - 2013
Kimi Raikkonen - 2012
Nick Heidfeld - 2008
Michael Schumacher - 2002
Although, you could make the argument that reliability on the whole is consistently improving as time passes and technology develops, so who knows. I still feel like 7/1 was value though.
Firstly, it was me that mentioned components might get worn out, but I doubt it is much of an angle. These things have estimated lifespans and Mercedes have such a lead, they don't need to chance their arm anymore. Is there any real evidence that cars fail more often late in a season? My inclination is that it is nore likely early on when there are more new bits going on the car.
On the full season stats, much as a roulette wheel doesn't know that number 26 hasn't come up for 100 spins, the components of a car don't know that Lewis has gone 16 races without breaking down. I dare say Lewis isn't going to feel any pressure from this, as though I am sure he loves a reliable car, he isn't going to be stressed that he could be the 6th person to go through a season without a retirement.
Right now, they need to last 4 races and not 20 right now, so past full season stats are near meaningless. On a 7/1 race price, he must be about 5/4 to go the rest of the season without a retirement, and I'd happily lay that in decent size. I'd be absolutely batshit crazy to lay that at the start of the season.
I think if you looked back through F1 history, the data would show reliability is worse both at the start and ends of the season. Although, I've not actually done the research on this and could be wrong.
I'm not giving humanistic traits to car components here, but they have been stressed and strained for 16 races, and are more likely to fail compared to when they were in Australia (opening race), that is an outright fact.
If there were a market to back Lewis to finish the remaining four races this season, I would want 2/1 at least
Retirements in 1st race of the season vs last race of the season
2014
7 vs 3
2015
4 vs 1
2016
5 vs 5
2017
7 in Australia
So in the new engine era, we have 23 retirements in race 1 at nearly 6 a season and 9 in the last race of the season at 3 a season. So pretty sure it isn't an outright fact.
Mercedes retirements
2014
5 in 38 races
2015
2 in 38 races though Nico had a classified finish for completing 90% of the race
2016
3 in 42 races (2 of those were when Nico and Lewis hit each other)
2017
1 in 32 races so far.
Mercedes have had no retirements in any of the last 4 races over the last 3 seasons.
But you make it 2/1 Lewis makes it through the next 4?
Nobody has taken up my offer of 5/4 on a Lewis retirement over the next 4. Lot of shrewdies about.
Sure he could break down, but you can have bad winning bets and good losing ones.
hmmmm isn't it possible that a lot of engines are work in progress in the first race?
I would think 1st half of the season vs 2nd half would be the interesting stat
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Doobs
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Posts: 16579
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #130654 on:
October 22, 2017, 08:46:01 PM »
Quote from: doubleup on October 22, 2017, 08:19:14 PM
Quote from: Doobs on October 22, 2017, 07:39:52 PM
Quote from: Peter-27 on October 21, 2017, 07:21:23 PM
Quote from: Doobs on October 15, 2017, 04:31:35 PM
Quote from: Peter-27 on October 15, 2017, 10:23:14 AM
Quote from: Doobs on October 08, 2017, 11:25:26 AM
Quote from: Peter-27 on October 08, 2017, 08:31:02 AM
Quote from: Doobs on October 08, 2017, 08:09:41 AM
Quote from: Peter-27 on October 08, 2017, 05:59:02 AM
Quote from: Tal on October 08, 2017, 05:22:29 AM
Overdue? He had enough of those last season.
Lewis only had two DNF's last season, which was very, very good when compared with everyone else.
apart from Nico...
7/1 isn't even a great price on either of the Mercedes to retire. Betting on something because it hasn't happened for a while seems like wonky thinking.
Indeed. Nico had one. Ricciardo actually finished every race, and Perez classified in every race.
Not sure I entirely agree, law of averages suggests every car will have at least one mechanical failure during the season. I think I would always be happy to take 7/1 at this stage of the season on a car which has yet to suffer retirement. Happy to be convinced otherwise though, as I'm not 100% confident in my logic there.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages
Depending on context or application it can be considered a valid common-sense observation or a misunderstanding of probability. This notion can lead to fallacious thinking when one becomes convinced that a particular outcome must come soon simply because it has not occurred recently
At the start of the season, you can look at all the stats and decide Lewis is going to retire one race in ten (or whatever it is), so the odds on a retirement is 9/1. If he doesn't retire in the first 9 races, that doesn't mean he is "due one" in the next race. The odds are still going to be 9/1. If anything, you could learn that maybe the Mercedes has got even more reliable than you thought, and that 9/1 is now too short. There are always going to be occasions where retirement is more likely; like if the track is attritional, like Monaco; or the weather is really hot; or maybe the engine is reaching the end of its expected lifespan, but none of those will be because he is "due one".
I would say that the law of averages is right up there with "Momentum" as a bad reason to make a bet. Will leave the momentum one to Camel, I can't hear that word in a commentary without thinking of The Camel these days.
I understand the principle of the law of averages, and I can't directly argue with anything you've said. However, I think you've completely skimmed over a key component, cumulative effect. This isn't red/black roulette scenario because car components (at least the ones that are carry over) degrade over time which directly increases the chance of a failure at the next race. Of course I don't know Mercedes' component rotation, but I could take an educated guess, and I would be certain that many components have been on that car since the season began. It's worth noting that the component reconditioning process only happens following a shunt or reliability issue due to logistics.
Perhaps another much simpler way of looking at it is that if you look back through history, it's fairly rare for a driver to go a whole season without a retirement during a circa 20 race season. The last five times this happened was:
Daniel Ricciardo - 2016
Max Chilton - 2013
Kimi Raikkonen - 2012
Nick Heidfeld - 2008
Michael Schumacher - 2002
Although, you could make the argument that reliability on the whole is consistently improving as time passes and technology develops, so who knows. I still feel like 7/1 was value though.
Firstly, it was me that mentioned components might get worn out, but I doubt it is much of an angle. These things have estimated lifespans and Mercedes have such a lead, they don't need to chance their arm anymore. Is there any real evidence that cars fail more often late in a season? My inclination is that it is nore likely early on when there are more new bits going on the car.
On the full season stats, much as a roulette wheel doesn't know that number 26 hasn't come up for 100 spins, the components of a car don't know that Lewis has gone 16 races without breaking down. I dare say Lewis isn't going to feel any pressure from this, as though I am sure he loves a reliable car, he isn't going to be stressed that he could be the 6th person to go through a season without a retirement.
Right now, they need to last 4 races and not 20 right now, so past full season stats are near meaningless. On a 7/1 race price, he must be about 5/4 to go the rest of the season without a retirement, and I'd happily lay that in decent size. I'd be absolutely batshit crazy to lay that at the start of the season.
I think if you looked back through F1 history, the data would show reliability is worse both at the start and ends of the season. Although, I've not actually done the research on this and could be wrong.
I'm not giving humanistic traits to car components here, but they have been stressed and strained for 16 races, and are more likely to fail compared to when they were in Australia (opening race), that is an outright fact.
If there were a market to back Lewis to finish the remaining four races this season, I would want 2/1 at least
Retirements in 1st race of the season vs last race of the season
2014
7 vs 3
2015
4 vs 1
2016
5 vs 5
2017
7 in Australia
So in the new engine era, we have 23 retirements in race 1 at nearly 6 a season and 9 in the last race of the season at 3 a season. So pretty sure it isn't an outright fact.
Mercedes retirements
2014
5 in 38 races
2015
2 in 38 races though Nico had a classified finish for completing 90% of the race
2016
3 in 42 races (2 of those were when Nico and Lewis hit each other)
2017
1 in 32 races so far.
Mercedes have had no retirements in any of the last 4 races over the last 3 seasons.
But you make it 2/1 Lewis makes it through the next 4?
Nobody has taken up my offer of 5/4 on a Lewis retirement over the next 4. Lot of shrewdies about.
Sure he could break down, but you can have bad winning bets and good losing ones.
hmmmm isn't it possible that a lot of engines are work in progress in the first race?
I would think 1st half of the season vs 2nd half would be the interesting stat
It was presented as an "outright fact" there were more failures later than in Australia. If you go back in the thread I was saying that my inclination was that "it was more likely early". I guess you could take out race 1 and Monaco, as it is probably an outlier too. I just don't think there is any angle here.
The Mercedes has been reliable over the last 4 seasons and seems to be getting more so. The late in the season effect would have to be really significant to get over that known reliability and if there is any effect, it just doesn't seem to be anywhere near significant enough.
I am always open to people doing more research here, as it is way better than just guessing. Last 4 or 5 races vs first 4 or 5 maybe, as 6 is Monaco? Over to you.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
tikay
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #130655 on:
October 22, 2017, 08:52:56 PM »
Quote from: tikay on October 22, 2017, 07:31:37 PM
Quote from: The Camel on October 19, 2017, 10:39:29 PM
I am having my biggest NFL bet for ages this weekend.
The best QB in the league, Aaron Rodgers, broke his collarbone and is out for the season.
Woe is the Packers. Their season is fucked, right?
Well, probably, yes. But not so fast.
They cannot score points without God at QB, can they?
Well, they still have one of the best WR corps in the league, Adams, Nelson and Cobb.
And in 2013 when Rodgers was out injured for the last 8 games of the season they scored 13, 13, 26, 10, 22, 37, 31 and 33 points in their games for an average of 23.15 per game. And that was the mixture of Scott Tolzien, Seneca Wallace and Matt Flynn at QB. None of whom are as highly rated by the Green Bay coaching staff as Brett Hundley who will be at the helm on Sunday.
Against the Saints defense who rank 26th in the league, giving up a whopping 369 yards per game I think the GB offense will do just fine.
So we back GB getting 5?
Nope.
The Saints will surely put up tons of points here. They are already averaging 29 ppg and are facing a defense ravaged by injury.
Check out their injury report:
http://www.packers.com/team/injury-report.html
House, King, Pipkins, Burnett and Randall are all big doubts in the Packers secondary.
I can almost hear Drew Brees licking his lips from here.
I think this is going to be a shoot out of Wild West proportions.
Suggest £210 OVER 47.5 total points @ 20/21 with Patrick or Betunfair (£220 @ 10/11 general is fine too)
21 points on the board at half time, with the Packers leading 14-7.
43 points scored, 5 minutes play remain, Saints lead 26-17.
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All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link -
http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY
(copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
Doobs
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Posts: 16579
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #130656 on:
October 22, 2017, 09:03:54 PM »
Quote from: tikay on October 22, 2017, 08:52:56 PM
Quote from: tikay on October 22, 2017, 07:31:37 PM
Quote from: The Camel on October 19, 2017, 10:39:29 PM
I am having my biggest NFL bet for ages this weekend.
The best QB in the league, Aaron Rodgers, broke his collarbone and is out for the season.
Woe is the Packers. Their season is fucked, right?
Well, probably, yes. But not so fast.
They cannot score points without God at QB, can they?
Well, they still have one of the best WR corps in the league, Adams, Nelson and Cobb.
And in 2013 when Rodgers was out injured for the last 8 games of the season they scored 13, 13, 26, 10, 22, 37, 31 and 33 points in their games for an average of 23.15 per game. And that was the mixture of Scott Tolzien, Seneca Wallace and Matt Flynn at QB. None of whom are as highly rated by the Green Bay coaching staff as Brett Hundley who will be at the helm on Sunday.
Against the Saints defense who rank 26th in the league, giving up a whopping 369 yards per game I think the GB offense will do just fine.
So we back GB getting 5?
Nope.
The Saints will surely put up tons of points here. They are already averaging 29 ppg and are facing a defense ravaged by injury.
Check out their injury report:
http://www.packers.com/team/injury-report.html
House, King, Pipkins, Burnett and Randall are all big doubts in the Packers secondary.
I can almost hear Drew Brees licking his lips from here.
I think this is going to be a shoot out of Wild West proportions.
Suggest £210 OVER 47.5 total points @ 20/21 with Patrick or Betunfair (£220 @ 10/11 general is fine too)
21 points on the board at half time, with the Packers leading 14-7.
43 points scored, 5 minutes play remain, Saints lead 26-17.
A Tikay bok is way more reliable than a Mercedes engine obv.
Logged
Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
BigAdz
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 8152
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #130657 on:
October 22, 2017, 09:06:34 PM »
Quote from: Doobs on October 22, 2017, 09:03:54 PM
Quote from: tikay on October 22, 2017, 08:52:56 PM
Quote from: tikay on October 22, 2017, 07:31:37 PM
Quote from: The Camel on October 19, 2017, 10:39:29 PM
I am having my biggest NFL bet for ages this weekend.
The best QB in the league, Aaron Rodgers, broke his collarbone and is out for the season.
Woe is the Packers. Their season is fucked, right?
Well, probably, yes. But not so fast.
They cannot score points without God at QB, can they?
Well, they still have one of the best WR corps in the league, Adams, Nelson and Cobb.
And in 2013 when Rodgers was out injured for the last 8 games of the season they scored 13, 13, 26, 10, 22, 37, 31 and 33 points in their games for an average of 23.15 per game. And that was the mixture of Scott Tolzien, Seneca Wallace and Matt Flynn at QB. None of whom are as highly rated by the Green Bay coaching staff as Brett Hundley who will be at the helm on Sunday.
Against the Saints defense who rank 26th in the league, giving up a whopping 369 yards per game I think the GB offense will do just fine.
So we back GB getting 5?
Nope.
The Saints will surely put up tons of points here. They are already averaging 29 ppg and are facing a defense ravaged by injury.
Check out their injury report:
http://www.packers.com/team/injury-report.html
House, King, Pipkins, Burnett and Randall are all big doubts in the Packers secondary.
I can almost hear Drew Brees licking his lips from here.
I think this is going to be a shoot out of Wild West proportions.
Suggest £210 OVER 47.5 total points @ 20/21 with Patrick or Betunfair (£220 @ 10/11 general is fine too)
21 points on the board at half time, with the Packers leading 14-7.
43 points scored, 5 minutes play remain, Saints lead 26-17.
A Tikay bok is way more reliable than a Mercedes engine obv.
Yup. Some things in life you just hate to see.
One of them is Tikay or Marky giving regular updates on a bet.......
Logged
Good evenink. I wish I had a girlfriend.......
tikay
Administrator
Hero Member
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Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #130658 on:
October 22, 2017, 09:18:17 PM »
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All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link -
http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY
(copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
Tal
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 24352
"He's always at it!"
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #130659 on:
October 23, 2017, 01:13:59 AM »
Fred might enjoy this.
Oakland Raiders (but more famously Seattle Seahawks) running back Marshawn Lynch is a character. He has done some alternative voicework for Darth Vader:
What's brilliant about it is it sort of works.
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
Tal
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 24352
"He's always at it!"
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #130660 on:
October 23, 2017, 01:31:04 PM »
Cam Newton after the Panthers lost to Chicago in a terrible game.
Click to see full-size image.
He's no Paul Parker.
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
DMorgan
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 4449
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #130661 on:
October 23, 2017, 04:01:53 PM »
Quote from: Tal on October 23, 2017, 01:13:59 AM
Fred might enjoy this.
Oakland Raiders (but more famously Seattle Seahawks) running back Marshawn Lynch is a character. He has done some alternative voicework for Darth Vader:
What's brilliant about it is it sort of works.
Is that Rex Tillerson sitting next to the chirpster?
Logged
Quote from: Karabiner on May 24, 2014, 12:47:13 PM
Is Dan awake yet?
tikay
Administrator
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #130662 on:
October 24, 2017, 04:30:49 PM »
The Rugby League World Cup starts on Friday, & lasts for 6 weeks, encompassing 28 games.
Lot of TV coverage, including all England games, though unsociable hours - mostly early to mid-morning (UK).
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-league/41405144
Any interest in this, or is it all a bit of a sham?
Australia, in a 14 runner field, are generally 2/9 or 1/5, so hardly backable, with England 2nd favs at 7/1 or 8/1.
Realistically, it's a 4 runner field - the Aussies 1/5, England & New Zealand both 8/1, & Tonga - though it's not really Tonga, but the leftovers from the Big Three nations @ a general 20/1. It appears to be "Win Only".
https://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-league/world-cup/rugby-league-world-cup/winner
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All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link -
http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY
(copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
tikay
Administrator
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #130663 on:
October 24, 2017, 04:40:26 PM »
The Baseball World Series starts tonight, too, best of 7 between the Dodgers & Astros.
Games start at 1am UK time, with the first 2 games at Dodgers Stadium in LA.
It's generally 8/13 Dodgers, 7/5 Astros.
https://www.oddschecker.com/baseball/mlb/world-series/winner
Click to see full-size image.
«
Last Edit: October 24, 2017, 04:45:00 PM by tikay
»
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All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link -
http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY
(copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
tikay
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #130664 on:
October 24, 2017, 04:49:52 PM »
Swansea host Man U tonight in the League Cup.
If there are any Paul Clements fans still in the house, 6/1 against a Man U likely to field a severely weakened 11 might be of interest.
Logged
All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link -
http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY
(copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
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