Get busy livin', or get busy dyin'

[Martian Martian]

This is a novice looking for opinions more than 'proper' hand analysis.

2-Table $20 tournament. Seven players on my table.  I'm having not-much-luck,
and beginning to feel a 'do-or-die' moment could be in order.

I have about 1400 chips (lowest on table) blinds are 100/200 and I'm BB.

UTG raises to 900.  The button calls.  Then back to me.

I have  .

Reasons for calling: 1) lots of chips in the middle - a chance to double through. 2) if the flop comes ragged, an all-in might steal the pot
3) Although he wasn't a maniac, UTG was raising quite often - he could be at it  4) 'get busy livin' or get busy dyin'.

Reasons for folding: 1) no reason to panic, so wait for better cards / better position. 2) the button was solid and probably had something.

After much thought I packed.

Of course the flop came  and the button took the chips with  .

Turns out, the 'waiting for better cards' option came along three hands later, when my AKs was up-ended by 67o. Them's the breaks  .

So, given the circumstances, should I have been less cautious and more adventurous?  Opinions please!

[yt]

Have to admit for a treble through I might go for it. Theres not much chance you hand is duplicated else where and they may have less than a pocket pair and also duplicate each other. I'd prefer to go in like this with something a bit better like 67s.
If you fold you still have just above 5xthe BB so you have one more decent all in.
It's a tough call. gamble or not.
Double through no way.
Treble through probably
Quad through yeah baby

[AndrewT]

If you call, there will be (assuming you have 1400 chips after posting) 900+900+900+100 = 2800 chips in the pot and you will have 700 left. A 1/4 pot all-in isn't going to get rid of anyone. Either the button has a pair or over cards to a raggy flop - either way he's going to call.

You're allowing the fact that you would have flopped 2 pair to influence your thinking - you can't reverse-engineer your decisions from the cards that fall afterwards.

With only 7 BB left, you will not be able to get a raiser to fold - your hand will have to hold up. 45 o/s is not a hand to put your faith in to do the business. You must fold in this situation.

In your position, being first in with a raise is far more important that your actual cards.

[AndrewT]

Have to admit for a treble through I might go for it. Theres not much chance you hand is duplicated else where and they may have less than a pocket pair and also duplicate each other. I'd prefer to go in like this with something a bit better like 67s.
If you fold you still have just above 5xthe BB so you have one more decent all in.
It's a tough call. gamble or not.
Double through no way.
Treble through probably
Quad through yeah baby

If you put your opponents' range of hands as any pair and any two cards ten or better, then you're less than 24% to win - a one in four chance of trebling through is not a good bet.

EDIT: Even if you knew that both your oppoents had a card in common, you're still less than 30%.

[Martian Martian]

Thanks for the replies guys.  I think this post indicates just how little I know about this game!

If you call, there will be (assuming you have 1400 chips after posting) 900+900+900+100 = 2800 chips in the pot and you will have 700 left. A 1/4 pot all-in isn't going to get rid of anyone. Either the button has a pair or over cards to a raggy flop - either way he's going to call.

Yes, you're right of course.  I would have to hit on the flop, otherwise I'm just pissing away my chips.  Thinking I could steal post-flop was a bit foolish (mind you, this is a $20 game we're talking about).

You're allowing the fact that you would have flopped 2 pair to influence your thinking - you can't reverse-engineer your decisions from the cards that fall afterwards.

No, I seriously was considering a call, but I think that's just an indication of how daft I am. The flop was amusing, that's all.

I'll need to pull my finger out and start practicing working out the odds -- I'm just bone idle and tend to rely on [cough]instinct[cough]. 

[ifm]

So often you see people lumping it in with any ace when they feel threatened and it that respect a move with 45 isn't as bad.
The way i tend to play when i'm shortstacked is to raise allin with connectors, 89,910,10J. IN POSITION!!!
This gives you 2 chances, to steal the blinds and the chance to outdraw any caller/s.
I have been called lucky so many times when i have outdrawn AK etc. like this but the fact is it's a calculated risk.
So there lies my advice, get 'em in first NEVER call with shite and even be careful with a big ace if you have people already calling raises in front of you.
Ian

[ACE2M]

So often you see people lumping it in with any ace when they feel threatened and it that respect a move with 45 isn't as bad.
The way i tend to play when i'm shortstacked is to raise allin with connectors, 89,910,10J. IN POSITION!!!
This gives you 2 chances, to steal the blinds and the chance to outdraw any caller/s.
I have been called lucky so many times when i have outdrawn AK etc. like this but the fact is it's a calculated risk.
So there lies my advice, get 'em in first NEVER call with shite and even be careful with a big ace if you have people already calling raises in front of you.
Ian

Just what i was gonna say, if you can be first in then it's not a bad spot.
But you have to hit the flop with that hand in that situation.

Personally i don't go for desperate all in's unless i have less than 5 bb in an stt as a single double up usually gets you back in contention.

[yt]

Have to admit for a treble through I might go for it. Theres not much chance you hand is duplicated else where and they may have less than a pocket pair and also duplicate each other. I'd prefer to go in like this with something a bit better like 67s.
If you fold you still have just above 5xthe BB so you have one more decent all in.
It's a tough call. gamble or not.
Double through no way.
Treble through probably
Quad through yeah baby

If you put your opponents' range of hands as any pair and any two cards ten or better, then you're less than 24% to win - a one in four chance of trebling through is not a good bet.

EDIT: Even if you knew that both your oppoents had a card in common, you're still less than 30%.

That why i said a treble through was a probably..... c'mon a $20 2 table game? you'd put it in. He has one more circuit before it's out of his hands anyway. He also asked for opinions not 'proper' hand analysis and on gut feeling I'd go for it.
Though everything you said is correct of course!

[thetank]

3) Although he wasn't a maniac, UTG was raising quite often - he could be at it 

You don't really want him to be "at it" as then he's more likely to have a hand like J4 or Q5. You'd much rather he had AQ or something. If you think your opponent is weak you need less of a hand to call than usual but you still need a hand. (Newmanseye take note)

You pass here every time. To call you have to be so short stacked (around 3BB) that posting the BB has priced you in. Even then, you might fold, depending on how many people left in the STT.

What makes playing trash profitable is the chance that your opponents may fold, coupled with the times when they call, and you outdraw.  If you're putting your chips in the middle with pisch, you have to get your chips in there first.

As a general rule, discount the chance of anyone folding post flop if the amount of chips you have is less than half the size of the pot.

[yt]

As a general rule, discount the chance of anyone folding post flop if the amount of chips you have is less than half the size of the pot.

I like it. I've added it to the little space in my brain i was going to use for 'CPR training' but cant be bothered to learn.

[Tinsel Town]

Funny enough I quadrupled up in a cash game at CinCins last week with 45 s.

The table was loose and I felt the three players b4 me all had high cards.

They did and he turn and river was 5 5

Happy days