The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[PokerBroker]

The arrogance / over confidence of tory commentators show they have learned nothing from the trump election in the US.

Millions of republicans voted for trump because/ inspite of him against hillary - there is no reason why labour voters wont ignore their (polls shown) dislike of Jeremy and vote for a local candidate / hatred of the conservatives.

I don't know who to vote for or even who I want to lose most.

The PLP are responsible for the lack of talent in the Shadow Cabinet those refusing to play their part in forming a credible opposition should have been deselected.

I agree with this.

I have no idea who I will vote for.

I respect Corbyn as a man but he's not really a credible leader of a government, and the platoon of clowns in the shadow cabinet worries me greatly.

I cannot abide Tim Farron, if Clegg was still LD leader I'd probably vote that way.

But as it is, I'd vote for anyone who is liable to keep a Tory candidate out. And as I live in one the safest Tory constituencies in the country, I'm wasting far too much time fretting about it!

Agree with this, although I watched Peter Dowd on Sunday Politics this morning and he seemed to be much more sensible than most of the clowns.

Really feels like a terrible choice this time. I'd prefer it if the major issues like Brexit, Health & Social Care, funding education, were the subject of broad long term consensus than party political footballs

[TightEnd]

Survation/GMB (Phone):

CON 43 (-5)
LAB 34 (+5)
LD 8 (=)
UKIP 4 (=)
GRN 2 (=)
SNP 3 (-1)

19th-20th May N=1,034 Tabs

[TightEnd]

Tory:Labour amongst the age groups in Survation poll:

18-34s Tory 30, Labour 46
35-54s Tory 42, Labour 35
55 plus Tory 53, Labour 24

The Survation poll is directly comparable to last weeks.

Age group improvement for Lab since then:

18-34yo (+7)
35-54yo (+13)
55 plus (+4)

[TightEnd]

 Here is the net error for the Labour polls/vote for all general elections 1979-2015 ->

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

MI5 opened file on Jeremy Corbyn over IRA links, according to a report: http://bit.ly/2q5N4KQ

[TightEnd]

How the polls have shifted since the announcement of the snap election (18 Apr):

Con: +4.9
Lab: +5.1
LDem: -1.8
UKIP: -6.2
Grn: -1.4

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

The Conservatives (X) a sensible plan for how they would run Britain:

Have: 44% (-)
Do not have: 36% (+3)

(via @YouGov / 18 - 19 May)

Labour (X) a sensible plan for how they would run Britain:

Have: 30% (+5)
Do not have: 50% (-)

(via @YouGov / 18 - 19 May)

[TightEnd]

this is a good explainer

Why is Labour under Jeremy Corbyn surging?

https://reaction.life/labour-jeremy-corbyn-surging/ 

[The Camel]

this is a good explainer

Why is Labour under Jeremy Corbyn surging?

https://reaction.life/labour-jeremy-corbyn-surging/ 

I can see it's a hard sell.

"We're going to take your house to pay for your care"

"But I've paid tax and NI all my life. This isn't fair".

"Sorry, but you were supposed to be dead by now".

[TightEnd]

this is a good explainer

Why is Labour under Jeremy Corbyn surging?

https://reaction.life/labour-jeremy-corbyn-surging/ 

I can see it's a hard sell.

"We're going to take your house to pay for your care"

"But I've paid tax and NI all my life. This isn't fair".

"Sorry, but you were supposed to be dead by now".

unrealistic expectations among the population about inheritance, the state's ability to fund social care in an environment where people live longer and there are lots more pensioners

complete inability of all parties in government to legislate and prepare for an ageing population and the implications of it


congratulations to the Conservatives for delivering a manifesto that has completely changed the momentum of the campaign, but if not now its only a (hyperbole alert) ticking time bomb for the finances of whoever is in government 2020,2025,2030 etc

----

The Tories are buying Google Ads against the term "dementia tax" which is neat but also, er, totally legitimises the term "dementia tax".

Click to see full-size image.

Other minor problem with this tactic is the term "so-called" which only ever prefaces bedroom taxes and murderous terrorist quasi-states.

[TightEnd]

UPDATED with latest ICM data. The Conservative takeover of Ukip's 2015 electorate continues..

as we keep saying,under FPTP this delivers lots of marginals to the conservatives and means their seat performance is likely to be better than their vote share

it completely stymies any LD hopes in the south west

and is a big issue in Lab heartland constituencies where UKIP is 2nd and UKIP+Con can win them seats like Bolsover (Skinner)

Click to see full-size image.

[The Camel]

this is a good explainer

Why is Labour under Jeremy Corbyn surging?

https://reaction.life/labour-jeremy-corbyn-surging/ 

I can see it's a hard sell.

"We're going to take your house to pay for your care"

"But I've paid tax and NI all my life. This isn't fair".

"Sorry, but you were supposed to be dead by now".

unrealistic expectations among the population about inheritance, the state's ability to fund social care in an environment where people live longer and there are lots more pensioners

complete inability of all parties in government to legislate and prepare for an ageing population and the implications of it


congratulations to the Conservatives for delivering a manifesto that has completely changed the momentum of the campaign, but if not now its only a (hyperbole alert) ticking time bomb for the finances of whoever is in government 2020,2025,2030 etc

----

The Tories are buying Google Ads against the term "dementia tax" which is neat but also, er, totally legitimises the term "dementia tax".

Click to see full-size image.

Other minor problem with this tactic is the term "so-called" which only ever prefaces bedroom taxes and murderous terrorist quasi-states.

Heard a heartbreaking interview on the radio yesterday.

A lady was talking about her parents who were both in their mid 80s.

Her dad was the sole carer for her mum who has dementia.

He has decided to commit suicide after his wife dies, so his children get his estate in full.

Impossible to listen to this story without welling up somewhat.

[Sheriff Fatman]

Heard a heartbreaking interview on the radio yesterday.

A lady was talking about her parents who were both in their mid 80s.

Her dad was the sole carer for her mum who has dementia.

He has decided to commit suicide after his wife dies, so his children get his estate in full.

Impossible to listen to this story without welling up somewhat.

I was discussing this yesterday evening and I said that I could imagine that many older people will look toward some form of assisted suicide as a means to ensure their families get a worthwhile inheritance.  Sadly, it seemed all too inevitable a consequence, and these people surely need protecting from allowing themselves to be seen as 'a burden' on their relatives (as many of them already do without this policy).

[Jon MW]

Heard a heartbreaking interview on the radio yesterday.

A lady was talking about her parents who were both in their mid 80s.

Her dad was the sole carer for her mum who has dementia.

He has decided to commit suicide after his wife dies, so his children get his estate in full.

Impossible to listen to this story without welling up somewhat.

I was discussing this yesterday evening and I said that I could imagine that many older people will look toward some form of assisted suicide as a means to ensure their families get a worthwhile inheritance.  Sadly, it seemed all too inevitable a consequence, and these people surely need protecting from allowing themselves to be seen as 'a burden' on their relatives (as many of them already do without this policy).

It's very sad that some might feel like that (and I'm sure some would) - but are there really going to be that many people who think that leaving £100,000 cash is going to be a failure as opposed to leaving a few hundred thousand pound property?

Seems to be valuing life a little cheaply doesn't it?

[TightEnd]

 George Osborne‏Verified account @George_Osborne

U-turn coming on social care. There will be a cap.