SB flops two pair

[david3103]

£10 FO MTT 5,000 starting stack. 15 runners, no exits yet.
Blinds are 50/100 Last hand of the level,

2 limpers, BB is almost guaranteed to check his option unless he has JJ+ or AQ+

My stack is depleted to 2475, villain has c 5,000.
I have  and complete

as expected I see the flop

 

I bet 400

fold, fold, call

I am as sure as I can be that the caller has an Ace, kicker below a Q since he limped into an opened pot and is calling now. He may have two clubs, but I doubt it. If he had A 3, or A5 he'd raise.

Turn is 

Me?

[daviebhoy]

Stacks mean you only need to bet about 800 and you can put the rest in on the river. Snap a turn shove obviously.

[GreekStein]

Check shove, he'll bet an ace

[kukushkin88]

Lead turn, shove river. You will get value out of a weak ace and and pp's. If you check he will most likely check behind with any weak ace or small pp and you miss a ton of value.

[MC]

Stacks mean you only need to bet about 800 and you can put the rest in on the river. Snap a turn shove obviously.

^^this

[AlexMartin]

Really like CR turn given he will probably bet his entire range, our hand is incredibly vulnerable but likely best and that the turn has just given a lot of flushdraws a gutterball/pair which he will want to flex.

[kukushkin88]

Alex I know it's been a few years since you played a £10 freezeout, he really doesn't bet almost his whole range if you check to him on the turn. Most players check behind all weak aces and pocket pairs which represent the huge majority of his range.

[GreekStein]

Check shove, he'll bet an ace

Really like CR turn given he will probably bet his entire range, our hand is incredibly vulnerable but likely best and that the turn has just given a lot of flushdraws a gutterball/pair which he will want to flex.

So glad the coaching is working Alex.

[david3103]

I led out for 700

he called, .................... eventually


River was 

Now what?

[EvilPie]

Open fold.

Do not put any more money in to this pot.

This is THE worst possible card for you. You are not going to win this pot now unless you fancy a bluff.

Personally I wouldn't in this spot.

UL.

[outragous76]

well your hand is dead

hope he checks total air

[daviebhoy]

River was  

Now what?

Swear a lot, hold your head in your hands and then check/call hoping he bets a busted flush draw - then swear some more as you put on your jacket after he shows A2o.

[MC]

well your hand is dead

hope he checks total air

Yeah, there's a slim hope of a busted flush draw, and it kinda looks like you might be slow playing a full house which might deter him from betting.

But obv this is a check-fold. Perhaps if he bets 100 you can call for curiosity's sake but that's it...

[MANTIS01]

Check shove, he'll bet an ace

Really like CR turn given he will probably bet his entire range, our hand is incredibly vulnerable but likely best and that the turn has just given a lot of flushdraws a gutterball/pair which he will want to flex.

So glad the coaching is working Alex.

I don't get this. I like bet the flop strong/check the turn line vs the right villain in the right situation...but that's not here. Right villain? op says villain would only ever raise premium pre...so seemingly a conservative player. What makes us think checking is the right play vs a conservative player? Right situation? Hero bets 400 out of his 2.4k into 3 players on the flop and checks the turn with 1.2k out there and 2k in his stack. What would a bet from villain achieve now? Is villain ever going to get hero to fold a better hand than the Ace we put him on? Never. Is hero checking now to call with a worse hand? Never. So why would a conservative player fire at this pot? Because he's scared of getting outdrawn? He would have to think hero bets into 3 players on a draw and when he loses 2 oppos he suddenly checks his draw when over half his stack's out there. Do people do that? Villain knows betting the turn is playing for 2k or nothing...and he's beat when he plays for 2k and ahead when he plays for nothing. Checking is a very unconvincing strategy imo. But if you guys can list all the reaons why you would bet your A in villain's spot I might come round.

The truth is you're betting out and your customer is calling and there's abs no need to divert from that line with some vague he always bets theory. If you deffo put your oppo on an Ace you can just push and expect a call imo. No point in putting half your stack in on the turn and facing this ridic situation of fretting a river. Finding yourself c-folding the river and leaving yourself down to the felt in this spot is plainly ridic.

[Kar l]

Fold pre