Tips for Tikay

[cheapwetsuit]

I've got a bet I really like, but it's a bit of a (actually a mahoossive) banzai. I'd suggest just a fiver on the nose, but if you're feeling really nitty (ie. wasteful), you could make it each-way. Just bear in mind that this is the sort of bet where you stick the fiver on and forget about it. Chances are it's not coming back.

In the Volta a Catalunya at the moment, things are going according to plan, with the top 4 favourites (being the top 4 from the 2013 Tour de France) occupying the top 4 spots. Pretty boring from a gambling man's point of view. With betting on the general classification (GC) therefore being a waste of time, I've been looking at candidates for a potential upset in today's queen stage.

Introducing Tomasz Marczynski from Poland. With even more Scrabble points to his name than Benat Intxausti, he rides for CCC-Polsat, a surprise wildcard inclusion in this year's Volta. Currently, he is in joint-6th place in the King of the Mountains (KOM) competition with 16 points (30 points behind the leader Jack Bobridge), having struck out with the breakaway on Stage 2. He is a very experienced climber as evidenced by his 1st place KOM finishes in both the 2012 and 2013 Tours of Poland. Add to this his 13th overall finish in the 2012 Vuelta a Espana, and you begin to see why his finishing 7:18 behind Rodriguez in yesterday's mountainous Stage 3 is a good sign (rather than an indication of bad climbing form). The motivation to do well is also there as evidenced by what he had to say after Tuesday's success:
Today's stage was good. If you are already on the attack, it's worth to have something to fight for. I managed to win the mountain sprints and collect some points for the mountains classification. I must admit that I would still try to escape in other stages to fight for the KOM jersey. Until then I will relax. Tomorrow I will consider what to do next.

So I'm assuming that yesterday was more of a rest day for Marczynski, with the advantage of ceding some time to the leaders, and the disadvantage of ceding some points to Bobridge, Zeits and Molard. Although there is the counter-argument that tomorrow they'll have tired legs, and our man will be rested. We'll have to wait and see.

On today's queen stage, there are five categorised climbs with a total of 88 KOM points up for grabs. This includes the 30 points on offer at the summit finish, which I'm not assuming Marczynski will take ... yet! Another way of putting this is that there are realistically 58 points to be had before the peloton closes in on a breakaway, and fights for finish line honours. So more than enough to make up the 30-point deficit on Bobridge. However, in order to be allowed to make the breakaway (which will hoover up the points), Marczynski has to convince the peloton that he is no threat to the overall classification. By losing more than 7 minutes yesterday, he has done this in spades ... nice poker reference there!

Now this where the banzai comes in:
Assuming Marczynski indeed makes the breakaway, and as predicted finishes first over the Collada de Tosses (16), the Alt de Canes (10), the Alt de Oix (16), and the Alt de Rocabruna (16) ... what then? He will be sitting on 74 points with the finish line still a very difficult 36km away in Vallter 2000. CCC-Polsat are a small cycling team on a very small budget. A mountains jersey will be more than enough reward for them. But what if there is a 10min+ gap to the peloton? What if they had the chance to nick a stage in a prestigious European race? I'm guessing they would go for it. And in Tomasz Marczynski they have the right weapon to attack the final climb, and secure victory.

B3e6t5 is quoting odds of 125/1 and Podeypawdr is currently a mahoossive 250/1. Definitely worth a small gamble.

[scotty2hatty]

That was great

[horseplayer]

Post of the Year winner

[tikay]

Wonderful Post by Wetty.

Sadly, 365 would not lay me a penny. PP allowed me a measly £0.41p ew.

[typhoon13]

Post of the Year winner

+1  Classy

[horseplayer]

the irish firm cut already under sheer weight of 50p each way bets

[TightEnd]

Volta a Catalunya Stage 4 (Alp - Vallter 2000 (Setcases)
27-03-2014 11:10
Stage Betting
Each Way Odds: 1/4 places 1,2,3
T Marczynski @ 125/1

£5 e/w with me tikay.

250/1 had gone before I got there

[Marky147]

Wonderful Post by Wetty.

Sadly, 365 would not lay me a penny. PP allowed me a measly £0.41p ew.

I could only get £1.25 with PP, and a fiver with the other mob, however, this could be the perfect time to open an account with our Premier League Darts sponsors, and help yourself to some of their 200/1

[Tal]

Betting suspended with PP

edit:
Back up at 125/1. Not sure why they suspended it, then.

[cheapwetsuit]

Thanks for all the kind words. I'm just praying that he makes the breakaway so that I don't look a complete fool. Otherwise it'll be the shortest sweat in the history of Fred.

I promise to keep posting updates.

[Karabiner]

Excellent write-up MrSuit although I do hope you'll forgive me for pointing out that doing something "in spades" is actually an old gin-rummy term.

When playing gin-rummy each player is dealt ten cards and then one card is turned up, if that card is a spade then the points won or lost in that hand count double, hence the expression.

As you were..

[Tonji]

£1.25 on Tomasz  

[Matt.NFFC.]

Be quick with this IMO....

Ipswich to beat Forest on Saturday @13/10 is absolutely huge.

We are in complete disarray, our season is shot to pieces, no manager, 8 first teamers out injured, and our last half decent centre half picked up a yellow card tonight and is banned for Saturday.

Honestly, if we win another game this season I will be surprised.

Ipswich on a push for play-offs...need I go on.

Just checked odds checker and expected 5/6 or thereabouts.

GO GO GO.....

2.41 Pinnacle is stand out and I can't see it being there long.

Still not interested team?

Stuart Pearce has also turned us down now ffs.

I'm off down to the ground to get on telly fk it

[TightEnd]

Still not interested team?

don't think its a case of that. The Boss has been unavailable much of the week. On balance that has probably saved money!

[TightEnd]

Meanwhile with South Africa 120-6 after 16, our Sri Lanka and New Zealand coupons are cheering on the Netherlands here!