The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

look at the huge difference between the phone and online polls

[nirvana]

What would the theories be on the discrepancy between online and phone polls ?  Been trying to think and came up with diddly

[TightEnd]

There’s a big difference between the online and telephone polls on the EU referendum – with online polls showing the sides neck-and neck and telephone polls showing about a 15% gap in favour of ‘remain’. Why?

Answer cliffs: methodology and the question asked

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/02/23/commentary-what-explains-difference-between-phone-/

[nirvana]

Aah. I see. So turnout becomes the main deciding factor on the day I guess. If a high percentage of don't knows or no strong opi ions stay at home then likely to be quite close ?

[TightEnd]

Aah. I see. So turnout becomes the main deciding factor on the day I guess. If a high percentage of don't knows or no strong opi ions stay at home then likely to be quite close ?

I think so

i think it is widely assumed that getting the Labour/Corbyn - in vote out on the day is crucial. if so then remain should win nicely, but that is far from a foregone conclusion as it goes across party lines

If not then it appears quite close

remain went from 69% to 74% porobability on the exchanges on the publishing of yesterday's phone poll

[nirvana]

Aah. I see. So turnout becomes the main deciding factor on the day I guess. If a high percentage of don't knows or no strong opi ions stay at home then likely to be quite close ?

I think so

i think it is widely assumed that getting the Labour/Corbyn - in vote out on the day is crucial. if so then remain should win nicely, but that is far from a foregone conclusion as it goes across party lines

If not then it appears quite close

remain went from 69% to 74% porobability on the exchanges on the publishing of yesterday's phone poll

Thanks. Becomes quite an odd construct when the government seems to get the most airtime for remain and their job is to get the labour vote out. Strange times but maybe not unexpected since this isn't really a party poltical issue

[The Camel]

What would the theories be on the discrepancy between online and phone polls ?  Been trying to think and came up with diddly

Like the shy tories phenom

People don't like admitting to another human that they are a racist, xenophobic Little Englander.

In the safety of their living room on thier laptop they can behave like a frothing at the mouth member of Britain First or the EDL.

[DaveShoelace]

What would the theories be on the discrepancy between online and phone polls ?  Been trying to think and came up with diddly

Like the shy tories phenom

People don't like admitting to another human that they are a racist, xenophobic Little Englander.

In the safety of their living room on thier laptop they can behave like a frothing at the mouth member of Britain First or the EDL.

On the other hand, people find it very easy and enjoyable wildly accusing people of being racists with only the slightest of information.

[Woodsey]

What would the theories be on the discrepancy between online and phone polls ?  Been trying to think and came up with diddly

Like the shy tories phenom

People don't like admitting to another human that they are a racist, xenophobic Little Englander.

In the safety of their living room on thier laptop they can behave like a frothing at the mouth member of Britain First or the EDL.

Jesus Christ, the Tories are here to stay for a while, get over it....

[TightEnd]

the pound against the dollar today

spot the moment the poll with the huge remain lead came out

[DungBeetle]

What would the theories be on the discrepancy between online and phone polls ?  Been trying to think and came up with diddly

Like the shy tories phenom

People don't like admitting to another human that they are a racist, xenophobic Little Englander.

In the safety of their living room on thier laptop they can behave like a frothing at the mouth member of Britain First or the EDL.

Jesus what a poor post.  Do you really think everyone who wants to leave the EU is a racist?

[SuperJez]

Honestly I feel whatever happens the UK will be fine in the long run.  Short-medium term might be flaky but I cannot remain anything but bullish about our prospects over the long term.

However what is hilarious to me is that the out campaign seem to be built on the ultimate have your cake and eat it principle.  They think we can get whatever we want in negotiations without ever needing to accept anything others want.  Seems a bit far fetched to me.

[The Camel]

What would the theories be on the discrepancy between online and phone polls ?  Been trying to think and came up with diddly

Like the shy tories phenom

People don't like admitting to another human that they are a racist, xenophobic Little Englander.

In the safety of their living room on thier laptop they can behave like a frothing at the mouth member of Britain First or the EDL.

Jesus what a poor post.  Do you really think everyone who wants to leave the EU is a racist?

No of course I don't.

You could trying reading my post.

[DungBeetle]

What would the theories be on the discrepancy between online and phone polls ?  Been trying to think and came up with diddly

Like the shy tories phenom

People don't like admitting to another human that they are a racist, xenophobic Little Englander.

In the safety of their living room on thier laptop they can behave like a frothing at the mouth member of Britain First or the EDL.

Jesus what a poor post.  Do you really think everyone who wants to leave the EU is a racist?

No of course I don't.

You could trying reading my post.

Nope still don't get it.  If someone says to a pollster "yes I'd like to leave the EU" you seem to think that is the equivalent of "admitting you're a racist, xenophobic Little Englander".  Therefore I conclude that you think people who want to leave are "racist, xeonophobic Little Englanders"?

I'm voting to stay by the way - I just hate the idea that the only reason people want to leave is because they are xenophobic.  There is definitely a debate to be had about whether the pros of the EU outweigh the cons.  I have concluded that they do, hence my voting intention.

[The Camel]

What would the theories be on the discrepancy between online and phone polls ?  Been trying to think and came up with diddly

Like the shy tories phenom

People don't like admitting to another human that they are a racist, xenophobic Little Englander.

In the safety of their living room on thier laptop they can behave like a frothing at the mouth member of Britain First or the EDL.

Jesus what a poor post.  Do you really think everyone who wants to leave the EU is a racist?

No of course I don't.

You could trying reading my post.

Nope still don't get it.  If someone says to a pollster "yes I'd like to leave the EU" you seem to think that is the equivalent of "admitting you're a racist, xenophobic Little Englander".  Therefore I conclude that you think people who want to leave are "racist, xeonophobic Little Englanders"?

I'm voting to stay by the way - I just hate the idea that the only reason people want to leave is because they are xenophobic.  There is definitely a debate to be had about whether the pros of the EU outweigh the cons.  I have concluded that they do, hence my voting intention.

Ok I'll spell out what I meant.

The question was why people give different answers to opinion polls depending on whether the poll is a telephone or internet version.

I was speculating the reason people are more likely to say leave on the internet is because they were ashamed to *appear* racist or xenophobic to the pollster, whereas there is no-one to judge them in the privacy of their lounge or kitchen.

Whether they are racist or not is a different question altogether.