Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

I don't know if Tal is around, but Atlanta Falcons now odds on for homefield advantage until the NFC final.  Now best priced 10/1 vs 20/1 when tipped.  Ladbrokes and stars reported as still offering half the odds 1-2, which looks generous.

[aaron1867]

Wow, that is some beast.

Don't know.  The rest awful close. 

Not like Scudamore was riding it to the line.

He was waving his stick about with 100yards to go.

I get that, but Cue Card is better than the horses that finished with him.   I wouldn't get carried away on Thistlecrack, Cue Card hasn't run to his best.  Still worthy favourite for the Gold Cup now.

I have to disagree, you only have to look at his results to see that. Quite a few ones, but plenty of 2,3,4 & 5's, along with F's. If this was CC was 11111111 and a 2 today then yeah. But you never know what CC you have running.

All his jumps today wasn't great either.

Timeform had him as the second best chaser in training before today, 2 pounds behind Don Cossack.  He finished their top rated chaser 2 or 3 seasons ago. He has been rated 170+ by the official handicapper for 5 years or so barring a period before his wind op.  Think I'd take their word over yours.   

The others were all decent enough, but barring Silvianico Conti hadn't won at the top level outside Novice chases.  SC was beaten 42 lengths last time by Cue Card and pulled up the time before.  Today he was a short head behind.  So he has dramatically reversed a downward fall in form or Cue Card didn't run his race.

As I said Thistlecrack is a worthy favourite for the Gold Cup.  But I'd read this level of form as somewhere like Cue Card's run in the betfair, and not 10 pounds clear.  Of course Thistlecrack could still improve, as it was only his 4th race over fences.

Anybody got paid on Strictly christmas day yet?  On one channel ratings, it seems it won quite easily.  No idea on the settlemenr rules though.

You can take their word over mine every day of the week. But he has just as many 2,3,4 & 5's as he does have ones, against a progressive horse. I don't think we should be ever backing a horse that is only going backwards not forwards. Just thoughts.

But also thoughts that Fred has once again missed/ignored a tip of mine. Wednesday beat Newcastle at 5/1, lots of tips against Bury & of course thistlecrack today. Free going to die in 2017 if it's just the three elders.

[Doobs]

Wow, that is some beast.

Don't know.  The rest awful close. 

Not like Scudamore was riding it to the line.

He was waving his stick about with 100yards to go.

I get that, but Cue Card is better than the horses that finished with him.   I wouldn't get carried away on Thistlecrack, Cue Card hasn't run to his best.  Still worthy favourite for the Gold Cup now.

I have to disagree, you only have to look at his results to see that. Quite a few ones, but plenty of 2,3,4 & 5's, along with F's. If this was CC was 11111111 and a 2 today then yeah. But you never know what CC you have running.

All his jumps today wasn't great either.

Timeform had him as the second best chaser in training before today, 2 pounds behind Don Cossack.  He finished their top rated chaser 2 or 3 seasons ago. He has been rated 170+ by the official handicapper for 5 years or so barring a period before his wind op.  Think I'd take their word over yours.   

The others were all decent enough, but barring Silvianico Conti hadn't won at the top level outside Novice chases.  SC was beaten 42 lengths last time by Cue Card and pulled up the time before.  Today he was a short head behind.  So he has dramatically reversed a downward fall in form or Cue Card didn't run his race.

As I said Thistlecrack is a worthy favourite for the Gold Cup.  But I'd read this level of form as somewhere like Cue Card's run in the betfair, and not 10 pounds clear.  Of course Thistlecrack could still improve, as it was only his 4th race over fences.

Anybody got paid on Strictly christmas day yet?  On one channel ratings, it seems it won quite easily.  No idea on the settlemenr rules though.

You can take their word over mine every day of the week. But he has just as many 2,3,4 & 5's as he does have ones, against a progressive horse. I don't think we should be ever backing a horse that is only going backwards not forwards. Just thoughts.

But also thoughts that Fred has once again missed/ignored a tip of mine. Wednesday beat Newcastle at 5/1, lots of tips against Bury & of course thistlecrack today. Free going to die in 2017 if it's just the three elders.

Fred misses bets from all of us. 

Fred backed Reading for you not long ago.  I know as I put the bet on.  Not only did I put it on, I posted that your bet had won.

Can't say I'll bother next time.

[Tal]

This?

Wednesday 5/1 to beat Newcastle on BD, think this could be a bet

Not exactly a tip. You said you "think" it "could" be a bet and didn't give any reasoning as to why, nor say which bookie it was with. I saw it but didn't back it this time as 1) it is your team so I tend to treat that with a little scepticism and 2) you didn't seem confident yourself.

Play the game a bit, if you want to moan about the refs.

Well done on your win anyway. A good one for the Owl faithful.

[TightEnd]

Pretty simple really. A a proper recommendation with justification and a bit of effort and preferably a recommended amount and B a far less chippy attitude in general and if its seen in time it can either be questioned and/or placed

[exstream]

Fred knew not to get on Saara alto, maybe just got it wrong with sheffield

[tikay]

Welsh Grand National

Anything of interest in this?


http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/chepstow/14:40/winner


If we look at the results for the last 17 years, 14 of them were weighted at 10-8 or below. Whether that helps, or is a red herring, I have no idea. 


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_Grand_National

[Karabiner]

Welsh Grand National

Anything of interest in this?


http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/chepstow/14:40/winner


If we look at the results for the last 17 years, 14 of them were weighted at 10-8 or below. Whether that helps, or is a red herring, I have no idea. 


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_Grand_National

As the lowest weight carried this time is 10-10 I'd say that it's definitely a red herring..

[T_Mar]

Welsh Grand National

Anything of interest in this?


http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/chepstow/14:40/winner


If we look at the results for the last 17 years, 14 of them were weighted at 10-8 or below. Whether that helps, or is a red herring, I have no idea.  


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_Grand_National

Obviously great EW race with several firms paying 5 places and such a short price fav

Downside is the fav looks very solid and still well handicapped due to conditions of race

Winners of hennessey got awful record in this race is maybe a ray of light though

Regardless plenty of good bets to have with place terms - My 2 against the field are Onenightinvienna who has a good profile for race and been trained specifically for it - it's hard 10/1 on bf for win so 10/1 5 places with books is great bet - would recommend 30ew

Also quite like Bishops Road chances of hitting frame - Ran a decent prep last time and trainer does great with staying chasers - would recommend 20ew @ 20/1 5 places

If you like these and need help getting on can do either or both for you

[TightEnd]

onenight in vienna. we will need help as coral limited to £10 e/w. bet365 is 5 places 10-1 too

Bishops road the same. 20/1 bet365 only for 5 places

if anyone can help, please let me know

[T_Mar]

onenight in vienna. we will need help as coral limited to £10 e/w. bet365 is 5 places 10-1 too

Bishops road the same. 20/1 bet365 only for 5 places

if anyone can help, please let me know

You can have both with me no problem

Just confirm if you want 20 or 30 ew Vienna - not sure if you took the tenner ew with coral

[TightEnd]

onenight in vienna. we will need help as coral limited to £10 e/w. bet365 is 5 places 10-1 too

Bishops road the same. 20/1 bet365 only for 5 places

if anyone can help, please let me know

You can have both with me no problem

Just confirm if you want 20 or 30 ew Vienna - not sure if you took the tenner ew with coral

thanks

the full 30 e/w please. i left Corals.

[T_Mar]

onenight in vienna. we will need help as coral limited to £10 e/w. bet365 is 5 places 10-1 too

Bishops road the same. 20/1 bet365 only for 5 places

if anyone can help, please let me know

You can have both with me no problem

Just confirm if you want 20 or 30 ew Vienna - not sure if you took the tenner ew with coral

thanks

the full 30 e/w please. i left Corals.

Both booked

[Doobs]

onenight in vienna. we will need help as coral limited to £10 e/w. bet365 is 5 places 10-1 too

Bishops road the same. 20/1 bet365 only for 5 places

if anyone can help, please let me know

You can have both with me no problem

Just confirm if you want 20 or 30 ew Vienna - not sure if you took the tenner ew with coral

thanks

the full 30 e/w please. i left Corals.

Both booked

Both shortened up.  Cheers.

Backed Vinconte Du Noyer at 25/1 too.

[T_Mar]

Vienna pulled up on first circuit, disappointing

Probably placing for places anyway the way the Native won