Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Man U game tmmr

Suggest over 12 corners....

Everything to play for both teams going for it both like to get it out wide where the wingers try to get to the byline and blocking defenders intercept for it to go behind

Had this twice in the first leg 12 by half time and had a second bet for the 2nd half. Ended up with 20 corners

Had a lump myself at 2.1

Suggest £ 50 ffor Fred

Welcome back Dean.

I've not forgotten this, but it'll be tomorrow before I get to it properly.

I look at Corner Markets in almost every decent game, & back a good few, but the correlation between attack-minded Teams & Corners is rarely as obvious as it seems at first sight.

I want to do a bit of work on this, so I'll get back to it tomorrow.

Thanks for the suggestion.

[TightEnd]

Potentially, what is unique about this current test mach?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/scorecard/88362

Australia declared their first innings

If they lose by an Innings, they will be the first team in test history to declare and lose by an innings

[Tal]

Betfred are still 13/2 Long Run.  You can get 7/1 with paddy power, but the offer means betfred is the no brainer. 

Even without thos offer, I still think either is an astonishing price.  You have Long Run who has run to a very high level of form numerous times, each time with the same amateur on board.  Bob's Worth who has done it once.  Silvianico Conti who got close and Sir Des Champs who finished last in a 4 way bunch finish (yeah they are all absolute top class!?), and beat a sick possible non stayer a couple of lengths.  People have short memories.

Should obviously take the Dynaste price. 

I totally agree with Doobs re Long Run, seems to have been ignored due to the hype surrounding the others at the head of the market.

The thing that puts me off Long Run personally is the shape that it makes to jump it's fences. I think it's a miracle that it hasn't fallen (to my knowledge) in any 'chases when you combine that shape with a jockey who is likely to present it at it's fences sub-optimally compared to the best.
Oh and it's taken to donning the sheepskin earmuffs now too...

That's 2-1 to you, then, Karabiner.

[Karabiner]

Betfred are still 13/2 Long Run.  You can get 7/1 with paddy power, but the offer means betfred is the no brainer. 

Even without thos offer, I still think either is an astonishing price.  You have Long Run who has run to a very high level of form numerous times, each time with the same amateur on board.  Bob's Worth who has done it once.  Silvianico Conti who got close and Sir Des Champs who finished last in a 4 way bunch finish (yeah they are all absolute top class!?), and beat a sick possible non stayer a couple of lengths.  People have short memories.

Should obviously take the Dynaste price. 

I totally agree with Doobs re Long Run, seems to have been ignored due to the hype surrounding the others at the head of the market.

The thing that puts me off Long Run personally is the shape that it makes to jump it's fences. I think it's a miracle that it hasn't fallen (to my knowledge) in any 'chases when you combine that shape with a jockey who is likely to present it at it's fences sub-optimally compared to the best.
Oh and it's taken to donning the sheepskin earmuffs now too...

I do see your point Ralph and we are deffo giving a away a few pounds in the jockey stakes but for a past GC winner that just won the KG he seems to be pretty friendless against a set of up and coming horses that have yet to achieve what LR has. I think Doobs made those points a while back tbf. Re cheekpieces, well they might improve him.

I see your side of it too Phil. I'm sure from a mathematical/odds angle the price is simply too big on form in the book, and I didn't mean to attach too much of a negative to the rider as he's not that bad and that is already in the price anyway.

[bobby1]

Definitely agree with you if it was for new customers only Red. That would be a great price to pay to aquire new accounts. The trouble for Hills is that most people taking the offer are either existing accounts, many of whom will be arbers, some of whom will be dormant customers rembering their login-details or their account number. It's really hard to measure how much of that is good business. In the shops you might reckon that 50% of activity is just arbers.

 That was my idea on the rugby thing Keith. I thought it was genuis at the time. I think 5 people got on as none of the other hundred or so who rang knew anything about rugby.

 On all of these it's NRNB so if Dynaste goes for the other race you are Ok.

 It's obviously free money to bet all of these and arb and it may be long-term better ev to take them and keep them, if we assume that Betfair is always right.

 Having said all that, if there was no Betfair I wouldn't walk more than 300 yards to a shop to bet either of these two.

 Interesting that HF has remained very strong on Betfair all day considering how many arbers have got on.

Obviously you are correct but I think it is almost certainly a +EV move for Hills.  To be honest I am amazed more firms dont lead with price marketing like this as it is smart and cost effective.  Even things like it being mentioned on this thread have value for Hills and they also will no doubt get the opportunity to have that wanker Graham Sharpe on the TV next week saying how they laid HF to lose £100m in £50 bets.  I think the interesting thing is the last line in your post Neil.  Surely if there are so many arbers then HF should become very weak in the Betfair market today yet it isn't.  By my reading of the BF charts he has been layed for about £20k today all at 3.55/3.6.  Who has come out of the woodwork today wanting £20k on the horse?  Hills are the only people I can think of that might want to do that today......very weird as simple economics would suggest that the smart thing to do if you were an arber today would be to lay £2k of Hurrican Fly early then bet it back later when all the arbers are trying to lay the horse at any cost for their free bet.  Certainly would have more respect for someone that had actually thought that through than someone walking around 20 shops to get a grand at 3/1 with Hills.

Fair point - although we have a lot more than a grand on

The current betfair market is of course 'anti-post' yet Hills are NRNB, Hurricane will be a lot shorter in the 'day-of-race' market.

For the record, although I fully understand the view and arguments against arbers, we are an extremely well organised team and offer an excellent service to clients.

What I don't quite get is the ignorance of some pretty well thought of 'gamblers/punters' (two completely different sets of people imo) as to what today's arbing is about.

The views are quite prehistoric.  We operate in a market place and have an opinion on where markets may or may not go.  The complaint of "arbers spoiling it for the good guys' is not only dated, its pretty weak and coming from people who are surprisingly clueless about where professional arbers are today.

tbf people that can judge which way markets are going to move get millions in some companies, people that do it with sports events get called filthy.

I completely agree with your last line btw tho pure arbing at point of bet and taking a position and then playing it back later when the market moves the way you think it will are two different things.

[tikay]

Potentially, what is unique about this current test mach?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/scorecard/88362

Australia declared their first innings

If they lose by an Innings, they will be the first team in test history to declare and lose by an innings

Well done the new Bill Frindle.

[bobby1]

Betfred are still 13/2 Long Run.  You can get 7/1 with paddy power, but the offer means betfred is the no brainer. 

Even without thos offer, I still think either is an astonishing price.  You have Long Run who has run to a very high level of form numerous times, each time with the same amateur on board.  Bob's Worth who has done it once.  Silvianico Conti who got close and Sir Des Champs who finished last in a 4 way bunch finish (yeah they are all absolute top class!?), and beat a sick possible non stayer a couple of lengths.  People have short memories.

Should obviously take the Dynaste price. 

I totally agree with Doobs re Long Run, seems to have been ignored due to the hype surrounding the others at the head of the market.

The thing that puts me off Long Run personally is the shape that it makes to jump it's fences. I think it's a miracle that it hasn't fallen (to my knowledge) in any 'chases when you combine that shape with a jockey who is likely to present it at it's fences sub-optimally compared to the best.
Oh and it's taken to donning the sheepskin earmuffs now too...

I do see your point Ralph and we are deffo giving a away a few pounds in the jockey stakes but for a past GC winner that just won the KG he seems to be pretty friendless against a set of up and coming horses that have yet to achieve what LR has. I think Doobs made those points a while back tbf. Re cheekpieces, well they might improve him.

I see your side of it too Phil. I'm sure from a mathematical/odds angle the price is simply too big on form in the book, and I didn't mean to attach too much of a negative to the rider as he's not that bad and that is already in the price anyway.

I guess it is the beauty of betting mate, we both see the same things but evaluated em differently, tx Rick too.

[Karabiner]

Betfred are still 13/2 Long Run.  You can get 7/1 with paddy power, but the offer means betfred is the no brainer. 

Even without thos offer, I still think either is an astonishing price.  You have Long Run who has run to a very high level of form numerous times, each time with the same amateur on board.  Bob's Worth who has done it once.  Silvianico Conti who got close and Sir Des Champs who finished last in a 4 way bunch finish (yeah they are all absolute top class!?), and beat a sick possible non stayer a couple of lengths.  People have short memories.

Should obviously take the Dynaste price. 

I totally agree with Doobs re Long Run, seems to have been ignored due to the hype surrounding the others at the head of the market.

The thing that puts me off Long Run personally is the shape that it makes to jump it's fences. I think it's a miracle that it hasn't fallen (to my knowledge) in any 'chases when you combine that shape with a jockey who is likely to present it at it's fences sub-optimally compared to the best.
Oh and it's taken to donning the sheepskin earmuffs now too...

That's 2-1 to you, then, Karabiner.

Pax?

[BigAdz]

I keep hearing that the blinkers have made Long Run more lazy, in his homework at least......

[Tal]

Betfred are still 13/2 Long Run.  You can get 7/1 with paddy power, but the offer means betfred is the no brainer. 

Even without thos offer, I still think either is an astonishing price.  You have Long Run who has run to a very high level of form numerous times, each time with the same amateur on board.  Bob's Worth who has done it once.  Silvianico Conti who got close and Sir Des Champs who finished last in a 4 way bunch finish (yeah they are all absolute top class!?), and beat a sick possible non stayer a couple of lengths.  People have short memories.

Should obviously take the Dynaste price. 

I totally agree with Doobs re Long Run, seems to have been ignored due to the hype surrounding the others at the head of the market.

The thing that puts me off Long Run personally is the shape that it makes to jump it's fences. I think it's a miracle that it hasn't fallen (to my knowledge) in any 'chases when you combine that shape with a jockey who is likely to present it at it's fences sub-optimally compared to the best.
Oh and it's taken to donning the sheepskin earmuffs now too...

That's 2-1 to you, then, Karabiner.

Pax?

Absolutely.

Every now and then, you do teach me something I'd always believed to be true is wrong. Always happy to learn.

Pax it is.

[horseplayer]

long run is in pieces not blinkers isnt he?

there is some stat floating around like in the last 5 years of championship races at cheltenham 50 odd horses have wore headgear and none have won

maybe they were all rags and long run is better than any of the others to have tried but in general headgear is a small negative in this case it looks at best a strange move to me anyway

[TightEnd]

We had a bad result with QPR at the weekend

They went from 1/7 for the drop to 1/3 with a win at Southampton

Four points behind safety

In the next five games, they have Wigan at home, Villa and Reading away. They do have a nasty finish with Arsenal/Newcastle and Liverpool last three games

We'll know if we are gonig to drag betting defeat from well within the jaws of victory in the next few games, I reckon




Could do with a Villa result tonight....

[BigAdz]

Ur right Horsey, but you get my drift

[tikay]

We had a bad result with QPR at the weekend

They went from 1/7 for the drop to 1/3 with a win at Southampton

Four points behind safety

In the next five games, they have Wigan at home, Villa and Reading away. They do have a nasty finish with Arsenal/Newcastle and Liverpool last three games

We'll know if we are gonig to drag betting defeat from well within the jaws of victory in the next few games, I reckon




Could do with a Villa result tonight....

Mancini looked really happy in his pre-match interview. Not.

Not sure how he can rev up players when he has a face as long as a seaside donkey.

[TightEnd]

There is a Mourinho next job market up somewhere

Man City was 100-30

Arsenal 16-1

PSG 12-5

were the ones I recall

The Man City price caught my attention. Mourinho free in the summer, Mancini could get sacked at any point