Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

hepthalon was about to start, which caught me a bit unawares

first event of the athletics programme

i took 5/2 888sport £20 for you Tal, as we had no more time to debate it

[BigAdz]

Every so often bookies price up something that they've never priced before and that they have no idea about.
FPL betting from Corals.
http://sports.coral.co.uk/football
Corals have obviously gotten their office FPL whizz to price it up this year and they don't know what they are doing.

I could go into a long detailed post about why keepers are a very distinct scoring category but basically it comes down to the fact that the 'big four' keepers aren't very far ahead (if at all) of lower ranked teams keepers.
Last year Cech was the top scoring keeper and that is the first time I think in the 12 years I'm playing a top four keeper has won it. 

The top keepers make their points from clean sheets and the lower keepers are able to keep pace by getting higher 'save points', bonus points, penalty saves and the fact that they only lose 1 point for every 2 goals conceded.
So you want a keeper who will play every game, whose team will keep ~10+ clean sheets (Cech kept 16 last year), makes a lot of saves and will hopefully save a couple of penalties (big point scores from this).

Gomes (Watford) fnished a very close 2nd last year but is priced up at 20/1 for some reason. He kept 11 clean sheets and saved 3 pens. He has an excellent record on pens, saving 13 of 46.
Adrian (West Ham) finished 8th, some way off the pace but he did miss 6 matches through injury. He kept 9 clean sheets and I think we might expect that to improve. He has saved 5 pens in the last 2 seasons. Available at 18/1.
I won't put anyone off Heaton who scored 150 pts two years ago (would have finished 3rd last year) @ 33/1. He kept 10 clean sheets that year, saving 2 pens, and they should set up similarly defensively this year.
Foster (33/1), Valdes (40/1) and Mandanda (25/1) could also be in with a shout.
Nathan Redmond is available @ 125/1 to be top midfielder and could be worth a small e/w wager.
If anyone moves clubs, I think this market will be slow to react and the likes of Berahino/Benteke could be worth a nibble at big prices.

Recommend:
Adrian top goalkeeper @ 18/1 £5 e/w
Gomes top goalkeeper @ 20/1 £5 e/w
Nathan Redmond top midfielder @ 125/1 £2.50 e/w

I know TFT doesn't have Corals so I can offer the above if Fred wants.

we do have coral but a) i can't find these markets and b) for me the website is virtually impossible to use. error messages, site hangs etc etc

so we'll take those above please

if you are able to do the same on bellerin and van dijk as per horneris let me know, thanks

what are the each way terms please?

A perfect example of how just a few bets can completely move these small markets.

Can be no one else in the world bar TFT followers can have backed these.

GL us.

[hector62]

Afternoon Tighty.

Tonights superleague sees some interesting matches. If we had sky or ladbrokes I would be backing both Williams and Bateman  at about 3's to score for wigan v castleford.I think Watkins is also value for Leeds v Hull KR.

For us however I am turning to the St Helens game. I can't see the CESM's putting up much resistance. The best value is Johnnie Lomax to score anytime. He has 9 tries in 11 games this year and the 6/4 is good tonight.

Suggest £20 Lomax @ 6/4 with betvictor.

[TightEnd]

Jonny Lomax St Helens v Catalans Dragons Anytime Tryscorer
6/4
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £50.00

[TheDazzler]

Every so often bookies price up something that they've never priced before and that they have no idea about.
FPL betting from Corals.
http://sports.coral.co.uk/football
Corals have obviously gotten their office FPL whizz to price it up this year and they don't know what they are doing.

I could go into a long detailed post about why keepers are a very distinct scoring category but basically it comes down to the fact that the 'big four' keepers aren't very far ahead (if at all) of lower ranked teams keepers.
Last year Cech was the top scoring keeper and that is the first time I think in the 12 years I'm playing a top four keeper has won it. 

The top keepers make their points from clean sheets and the lower keepers are able to keep pace by getting higher 'save points', bonus points, penalty saves and the fact that they only lose 1 point for every 2 goals conceded.
So you want a keeper who will play every game, whose team will keep ~10+ clean sheets (Cech kept 16 last year), makes a lot of saves and will hopefully save a couple of penalties (big point scores from this).

Gomes (Watford) fnished a very close 2nd last year but is priced up at 20/1 for some reason. He kept 11 clean sheets and saved 3 pens. He has an excellent record on pens, saving 13 of 46.
Adrian (West Ham) finished 8th, some way off the pace but he did miss 6 matches through injury. He kept 9 clean sheets and I think we might expect that to improve. He has saved 5 pens in the last 2 seasons. Available at 18/1.
I won't put anyone off Heaton who scored 150 pts two years ago (would have finished 3rd last year) @ 33/1. He kept 10 clean sheets that year, saving 2 pens, and they should set up similarly defensively this year.
Foster (33/1), Valdes (40/1) and Mandanda (25/1) could also be in with a shout.
Nathan Redmond is available @ 125/1 to be top midfielder and could be worth a small e/w wager.
If anyone moves clubs, I think this market will be slow to react and the likes of Berahino/Benteke could be worth a nibble at big prices.

Recommend:
Adrian top goalkeeper @ 18/1 £5 e/w
Gomes top goalkeeper @ 20/1 £5 e/w
Nathan Redmond top midfielder @ 125/1 £2.50 e/w

I know TFT doesn't have Corals so I can offer the above if Fred wants.

we do have coral but a) i can't find these markets and b) for me the website is virtually impossible to use. error messages, site hangs etc etc

so we'll take those above please

if you are able to do the same on bellerin and van dijk as per horneris let me know, thanks

what are the each way terms please?

A perfect example of how just a few bets can completely move these small markets.

Can be no one else in the world bar TFT followers can have backed these.

GL us.

If people have missed these ones, Heaton @ 33/1 and Foster @ 33/1 are both good too.
Regarding Horneris' Bellerin bet, I don't think he is a bet @ 7/1.
The keeper market is small enough that you only have 20 runners. It's actually less as you can eliminate a few too. Mignolet + Karius will take games from each other so can be ruled out. I think Pickford will take games from Mannonne for Sunderland. The Hull keeper McGregor is out long term but will probably come back in so you can rule them out.
Bellerin has to beat 20 teams x 4 defenders = 80 players. Fine, he's certainly a runner as he won it last year but Arsenal had the most clean sheets and he was almost ever present. Difficult to replicate and even if he does, other top 4 clubs that did so badly last year will be catching up. He can't really do any better unless he adds goals. He's attacking but not renowned for goal scoring.
As regards VVD and Baines, yes VVD has goals in him and he's a possible, although question marks over what Southamptons defence will be like. Unlike keepers, defenders need to keep clean sheets and to win, probably need either goals and/or assists.
Baines used to be a FPL powerhouse, primarily due to Evertons defensive strength and his set pieces. He doesn't have pens anymore and less free kicks. Plus he may be on the wane.
I'm not saying neither could win but their price doesn't stand out to me. No one really did in the defenders. Maaaaybe Bailly @ 28/1 but has has no goals in him judging by his record.
Kolarov would be an FPL monster if he could get a game due to his goals/assists and Man C defence but unfortunately, he's unlikely to play.

As regards Horsie not being impressed by Redmond, I agree. As a replacement for Mane, he's a downgrade no question. But all the bets on him are related to the possibility of him playing up front. And although not a great player, he does score goals. That's all we want.

I personally like Hazard @ 9/1 top midfielder and have backed accordingly. He won top pts scorer overall 2 years ago but he's not a huge price so haven't recommended it. The midfield is a very competitive market.
Similarly, I can't see any stand out bets among the forwards.
It was Corals not understanding how keeper points work that was their real error.


Yes, Tikay confirmed for Fred.
I'll send pm for payment.

[horseplayer]

About 20 in 200 in club footie isn't it?

Sad day when j Rodriguez can't get in ahead if him no idea if he is properky fit or ever will be the same player though

Great posts anyway daz

[TheDazzler]

About 20 in 200 in club footie isn't it?

Sad day when j Rodriguez can't get in ahead if him no idea if he is properky fit or ever will be the same player though

Great posts anyway daz

I admit I don't know his overall but 6 goals and 4 assists in about 26 matches worth of minutes last year.
I stil remember your J-Rod bet form a couple of years ago. He was well on to at least place @ 150/1(?) until that injury.


Get in the FPL Horsie, you know your footie. Play the free league and there'll be a few spot prizes in there too donated by some of our generous winners from last year.
Ironside played the free one two years ago, learnt a lot about the game and was very competitive last year.
We need new blood!

And that applies to all newcomers!

[horseplayer]

Thanks for the invite daz

Next year I will take it up

[Tal]

hepthalon was about to start, which caught me a bit unawares

first event of the athletics programme

i took 5/2 888sport £20 for you Tal, as we had no more time to debate it

Good start. Leads after two events, thanks to a British (and i believe event) record of 1.98m in the High Jump.

KJT 2264
Thiam 2254
Jess 2242

Very important event for our girl next in the shot put. I'd expect her to fall behind Jess after this one and they'll both be behind Thiam. Key is not going too far behind.

For reference, after the shot is the 200m and KJT's personal best is two seconds faster than Thiam's.

[Killerkilsby]

Afternoon Tighty.

Tonights superleague sees some interesting matches. If we had sky or ladbrokes I would be backing both Williams and Bateman  at about 3's to score for wigan v castleford.I think Watkins is also value for Leeds v Hull KR.

For us however I am turning to the St Helens game. I can't see the CESM's putting up much resistance. The best value is Johnnie Lomax to score anytime. He has 9 tries in 11 games this year and the 6/4 is good tonight.

Suggest £20 Lomax @ 6/4 with betvictor.

Lol so far everything you've tipped has whiffed other than the one you kind of tipped but didn't fingers crossed for 2nd half!

[Killerkilsby]

Sigh 6 trys but not our guy.

[DungBeetle]

Watford getting Kenedy on loan for a year from Chelsea apparently.  Feels like a good signing - good player but no quite good enough to get in the Chelsea first team squad.

[Tal]

Disastrous shot put from KJT is as good as done. Completely flopped on all three attempts.

"Might as well have done a standing throw", chirped Steve Backley.

Grim.

[Doobs]

I'm going to suggest we have a bet on Byeong-Hun An to win the Olympic golf. 

With many of the big names missing this week I think Byeong-Hun An is going to see this as a huge opportunity to take advantage of that a put in a very respectable performance. Once becoming the youngest ever US Amateur winner at 17 there were high hopes for Ben An. He went on to win the BMW with a -21 at Wentworth in 2015 and lost in a playoff this year in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. Currently ranked 35th in the world and having very good stats off the tee (Driving distance 25th) and ranked 42nd on birdie average. I feel he has a good chance of a medal here.

Further to this, South Koreans become exempt from Conscription, other wise known as mandatory military service if they are to win an Olympic medal. Byeong-Hun An will be well aware of this with both of his parents winning one in table tennis in 1988.

Byeong-Hun An 45/1 - Sportingbet
£10 ew

Solid first day in the golf.

Byeong-Hun An -3
Colsaerts -3
Lingmerth -2

Leader -8

Meh.  No progress, just the order switched slightly.

[tikay]

The Premier League starts today, & I can't wait.

Betting is dominated by 7 Teams - Man C, Man U, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, Spurs & Leicester.

Football in the EPL is undergoing a structural change due to TV money, & I'm not convinced money always buys success.

With that in mind, there are always one or two "breakout" teams (Leicester last year, etc), but with most betting markets being top 2 only (just 2 firms go 3 places, but they offer a measly one fifth odds).

I have a feeling that 2 other teams might just surprise a few - West Ham & Everton, both of whom have outstanding Managers. Of the 2, I prefer West Ham, but it could be either.

Aside from straight "outrights", is there any way we can - or should - try & get with West Ham & Everton, or an I talking out of my arse?