poker news
blondepedia
card room
tournament schedule
uk results
galleries
Welcome,
Guest
. Please
login
or
register
.
May 02, 2024, 10:07:51 PM
1 Hour
1 Day
1 Week
1 Month
Forever
Login with username, password and session length
Search:
Advanced search
Order through Amazon and help blonde Poker
2272650
Posts in
66756
Topics by
16721
Members
Latest Member:
Zula
blonde poker forum
Community Forums
The Lounge
The Next President of the United States
0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.
« previous
next »
Pages:
1
...
54
55
56
57
[
58
]
59
60
61
62
...
308
Author
Topic: The Next President of the United States (Read 672712 times)
Marky147
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 22797
Re: The Next President of the United States
«
Reply #855 on:
October 08, 2016, 02:47:00 PM »
Down the Rogan rabbithole we go...
Joey Diaz should run in 2020, as he surely can't be any more out of place than Trump & Johnson are now
Logged
Burning $$$ in Vegas 2021
http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=68840.0
MintTrav
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 3401
Re: The Next President of the United States
«
Reply #856 on:
October 08, 2016, 03:35:59 PM »
This is not something Trump said this week. Someone has been sitting on this tape all the time, and has decided that this is the time it will cause maximum damage. I think we have to hope it is not too successful. Several Republican Senators, ex-Governors, etc have called for Trump to step down from the race since yesterday. If that happened, just about any replacement would have a much better chance against Clinton. It should be an open competition to replace him, but a few are talking about Mike Pence stepping up. With his good image of being the reasonable and intelligent side of the ticket, enhanced by the VP debate, Pence may have a stronger chance of winning the election than anyone else in the party, despite never having been a candidate in the Primaries. Isn't US politics strange?
In my view, this would be a disaster for us all. Pence is one of the most dangerous politicians in the US. His history hasn't been highlighted, but I fear for the US if we ever see a President Pence. The best outcome will be for Trump to be damaged, but struggle on.
I agree with the comments above that either winner is likely to be a one-term President (if that). There is an above-average possibility of them not completing the term. If they do, they will probably be seriously unpopular and ineffective. If Obama has been hamstrung by the GOP majority in Congress, what chance does Hillary have of getting much done? As has been stated, what about 2020? Numerous candidates have given a good account of themselves on the Republican side this time and are well-placed for the next one. Who have the Democrats got coming through? Sanders will be gone. Kaine? Yeah, right. O'Malley? Forget it. Presumably some others will make their mark by then. At least the demographics increasingly favour the Democrats, so it might work out in the end.
Logged
DaveShoelace
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 9168
Re: The Next President of the United States
«
Reply #857 on:
October 08, 2016, 03:47:46 PM »
Quote from: MintTrav on October 08, 2016, 03:35:59 PM
This is not something Trump said this week. Someone has been sitting on this tape all the time, and has decided that this is the time it will cause maximum damage. I think we have to hope it is not too successful. Several Republican Senators, ex-Governors, etc have called for Trump to step down from the race since yesterday. If that happened, just about any replacement would have a much better chance against Clinton. It should be an open competition to replace him, but a few are talking about Mike Pence stepping up. With his good image of being the reasonable and intelligent side of the ticket, enhanced by the VP debate, Pence may have a stronger chance of winning the election than anyone else in the party, despite never having been a candidate in the Primaries. Isn't US politics strange?
In my view, this would be a disaster for us all. Pence is one of the most dangerous politicians in the US. His history hasn't been highlighted, but I fear for the US if we ever see a President Pence.
The best outcome will be for Trump to be damaged, but struggle on.
I agree with the comments above that either winner is likely to be a one-term President (if that). There is an above-average possibility of them not completing the term. If they do, they will probably be seriously unpopular and ineffective. If Obama has been hamstrung by the GOP majority in Congress, what chance does Hillary have of getting much done? As has been stated, what about 2020? Numerous candidates have given a good account of themselves on the Republican side this time and are well-placed for the next one. Who have the Democrats got coming through? Sanders will be gone. Kaine? Yeah, right. O'Malley? Forget it. Presumably some others will make their mark by then. At least the demographics increasingly favour the Democrats, so it might work out in the end.
You think Pence would be a worse President than Trump (if so why?)? Or you think Pence has a better shot of getting in the White House and that's what concerns you more?
Logged
MintTrav
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 3401
Re: The Next President of the United States
«
Reply #858 on:
October 08, 2016, 03:59:55 PM »
Quote from: DaveShoelace on October 08, 2016, 03:47:46 PM
Quote from: MintTrav on October 08, 2016, 03:35:59 PM
This is not something Trump said this week. Someone has been sitting on this tape all the time, and has decided that this is the time it will cause maximum damage. I think we have to hope it is not too successful. Several Republican Senators, ex-Governors, etc have called for Trump to step down from the race since yesterday. If that happened, just about any replacement would have a much better chance against Clinton. It should be an open competition to replace him, but a few are talking about Mike Pence stepping up. With his good image of being the reasonable and intelligent side of the ticket, enhanced by the VP debate, Pence may have a stronger chance of winning the election than anyone else in the party, despite never having been a candidate in the Primaries. Isn't US politics strange?
In my view, this would be a disaster for us all. Pence is one of the most dangerous politicians in the US. His history hasn't been highlighted, but I fear for the US if we ever see a President Pence.
The best outcome will be for Trump to be damaged, but struggle on.
I agree with the comments above that either winner is likely to be a one-term President (if that). There is an above-average possibility of them not completing the term. If they do, they will probably be seriously unpopular and ineffective. If Obama has been hamstrung by the GOP majority in Congress, what chance does Hillary have of getting much done? As has been stated, what about 2020? Numerous candidates have given a good account of themselves on the Republican side this time and are well-placed for the next one. Who have the Democrats got coming through? Sanders will be gone. Kaine? Yeah, right. O'Malley? Forget it. Presumably some others will make their mark by then. At least the demographics increasingly favour the Democrats, so it might work out in the end.
You think Pence would be a worse President than Trump (if so why?)? Or you think Pence has a better shot of getting in the White House and that's what concerns you more?
Both. I think he would have a better chance, but I think he would be much worse - not in terms of competency (clearly he is far more competent), but his beliefs and his track-record as Governor.
Logged
DaveShoelace
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 9168
Re: The Next President of the United States
«
Reply #859 on:
October 08, 2016, 04:02:35 PM »
Quote from: MintTrav on October 08, 2016, 03:59:55 PM
Quote from: DaveShoelace on October 08, 2016, 03:47:46 PM
Quote from: MintTrav on October 08, 2016, 03:35:59 PM
This is not something Trump said this week. Someone has been sitting on this tape all the time, and has decided that this is the time it will cause maximum damage. I think we have to hope it is not too successful. Several Republican Senators, ex-Governors, etc have called for Trump to step down from the race since yesterday. If that happened, just about any replacement would have a much better chance against Clinton. It should be an open competition to replace him, but a few are talking about Mike Pence stepping up. With his good image of being the reasonable and intelligent side of the ticket, enhanced by the VP debate, Pence may have a stronger chance of winning the election than anyone else in the party, despite never having been a candidate in the Primaries. Isn't US politics strange?
In my view, this would be a disaster for us all. Pence is one of the most dangerous politicians in the US. His history hasn't been highlighted, but I fear for the US if we ever see a President Pence.
The best outcome will be for Trump to be damaged, but struggle on.
I agree with the comments above that either winner is likely to be a one-term President (if that). There is an above-average possibility of them not completing the term. If they do, they will probably be seriously unpopular and ineffective. If Obama has been hamstrung by the GOP majority in Congress, what chance does Hillary have of getting much done? As has been stated, what about 2020? Numerous candidates have given a good account of themselves on the Republican side this time and are well-placed for the next one. Who have the Democrats got coming through? Sanders will be gone. Kaine? Yeah, right. O'Malley? Forget it. Presumably some others will make their mark by then. At least the demographics increasingly favour the Democrats, so it might work out in the end.
You think Pence would be a worse President than Trump (if so why?)? Or you think Pence has a better shot of getting in the White House and that's what concerns you more?
Both. I think he would have a better chance, but I think he would be much worse - not in terms of competency (clearly he is far more competent), but his beliefs and his track-record as Governor.
Could you give cliffs on the top 2-3 concerns? I don't know much about him other he is anti-online poker.
Logged
neeko
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1762
Re: The Next President of the United States
«
Reply #860 on:
October 08, 2016, 04:06:41 PM »
As I understand us politics, the congress is in republican hands for a long time as they have gerrymandered the seats to the point where they can't actually lose. This leaves the senate, presidency and Supreme Court as the restraining influence.
The senate is in play this time as a lot of republican seats are up for reelection and not many dem ones, (6 years cycle), especially if with trump as the nominee Republican votors may not t turn up to vote.
A dem senate and president could fix the Supreme Court for the next generation as democratic leaning and mean that the 2020 result does not matter so much.
Given the mess of the EU and brexit, boring status quo in the US for a few years would be good for the world.
Logged
There is no problem so bad that a politician cant make it worse.
http://www.dec.org.uk
The Camel
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 17523
Under my tree, being a troll.
Re: The Next President of the United States
«
Reply #861 on:
October 08, 2016, 04:07:18 PM »
Quote from: MintTrav on October 08, 2016, 03:35:59 PM
This is not something Trump said this week. Someone has been sitting on this tape all the time, and has decided that this is the time it will cause maximum damage. I think we have to hope it is not too successful. Several Republican Senators, ex-Governors, etc have called for Trump to step down from the race since yesterday. If that happened, just about any replacement would have a much better chance against Clinton. It should be an open competition to replace him, but a few are talking about Mike Pence stepping up. With his good image of being the reasonable and intelligent side of the ticket, enhanced by the VP debate, Pence may have a stronger chance of winning the election than anyone else in the party, despite never having been a candidate in the Primaries. Isn't US politics strange?
In my view, this would be a disaster for us all. Pence is one of the most dangerous politicians in the US. His history hasn't been highlighted, but I fear for the US if we ever see a President Pence. The best outcome will be for Trump to be damaged, but struggle on.
I agree with the comments above that either winner is likely to be a one-term President (if that). There is an above-average possibility of them not completing the term. If they do, they will probably be seriously unpopular and ineffective. If Obama has been hamstrung by the GOP majority in Congress, what chance does Hillary have of getting much done? As has been stated, what about 2020? Numerous candidates have given a good account of themselves on the Republican side this time and are well-placed for the next one. Who have the Democrats got coming through? Sanders will be gone. Kaine? Yeah, right. O'Malley? Forget it. Presumably some others will make their mark by then. At least the demographics increasingly favour the Democrats, so it might work out in the end.
I was wondering the exact same thing.
Why release that tape now? Why not wait until 2 days before the election?
Some jiggery pokery going on I'll be bound.
Logged
Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists
"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012
"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
MintTrav
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 3401
Re: The Next President of the United States
«
Reply #862 on:
October 08, 2016, 04:12:23 PM »
The Trump campaign has pulled advertising from several battleground States, booked weeks ago. This happened before the latest revelations. The suspicion is that they are short of funds, or Trump has given up on winning and wants to save the money, maybe to pay back loans he has given to the campaign or pay any left-over excess to charity (Trump Foundation?).
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-ad-reservations_us_57f7e122e4b0e655eab3dfde?
Logged
MintTrav
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 3401
Re: The Next President of the United States
«
Reply #863 on:
October 08, 2016, 05:42:02 PM »
Quote from: The Camel on October 08, 2016, 04:07:18 PM
Why release that tape now? Why not wait until 2 days before the election?
Some jiggery pokery going on I'll be bound.
Don't know exactly why now. S'pose any date is matter of judgement. Could be to allow the backlash to build up and fester. Could be that there are more things to drip-feed over the next few weeks. Could be to coincide with the Town Hall - it's always better for someone else (especially a normal voter) to bring up the dirt than the candidate.
My guess would be it's because early voting has just started (and Clinton is crushing so far by way more than expected). Some of the swing States could be wrapped up before 8 Nov.
«
Last Edit: October 08, 2016, 06:07:39 PM by MintTrav
»
Logged
MintTrav
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 3401
Re: The Next President of the United States
«
Reply #864 on:
October 08, 2016, 06:01:11 PM »
Thought I'd update the table of polls in the swing states, to see how they have moved since before the debates started. The polls weren't held on the dates shown - they are the most recent ones showing on RealClearPolitics on those dates. Some States don't have great differences in the results of different polling groups, but some States have got large differences. The most recent polls could be exceptions, but I didn't want to make it complicated.
Having said that, there is a clear trend. Clinton seems to have strengthened her grip on all the Swing States that were in her column. Trump had the lead in most of the States that he needs to win, and now he doesn't - there has been movement from to Clinton in almost all of them. There may be exceptions and outliers, and up to 3% may not be statistically significant, but they can't all be wrong. Trump needs something dramatic to happen to turn it around, as he needs to win all the States in the bottom group. He is only a couple of points behind in almost all of them, but the trend is in the wrong direction across the board. I think he'll take Georgia and Arizona, but the rest could go either way. Those two would get him to 191 College Votes. His most likely result is probably around 220. 270 seems impossible unless Clinton assaults someone. Worst case scenario could be not breaking 200.
One other caveat is that Reuters (not listed on RealClearPolitics) published polls on 5 Oct, showing Trump ahead in Colorado (2%), Iowa (7%), Nevada (2%), and Georgia (13%), with Michigan and Wisconsin tied. It is clearly doing something quite different to other pollsters, as its results are all much more Trump-friendly than the others. Also, its results seem to be the combined results on polling over the last 3-4 weeks all published together, so may be out-of-date (though the other polls have never reported those numbers). Two separate polls have reported Clinton with a startling 11% lead in Colorado, so Reuters may be on the wrong track.
College Votes
% Lead
Trump
Clinton
21 Sep
7 Oct
Locked-up States
164 197
Swing States
In the Bag for Clinton:
Michigan
16
Clinton+4
Clinton+11
Pennsylvania
20
Clinton+9
Clinton+9
Virginia
13
Clinton+3
Clinton+7
Wisconsin
10
Clinton+2
Clinton+7
New Hampshire
4
Clinton+9
Clinton+2
Trump Needs to Win:
Colorado
9
Trump+4
Clinton+11
Maine
1
3
Clinton+2
Clinton+3
Arizona
11
Trump+1
Clinton+2
North Carolina
15
Tie
Clinton+2
Ohio
18
Trump+3
Clinton+1
Nevada
6
Trump+3
Tie
Iowa
6
Trump+8
Tie
Florida
29
Clinton+5
Trump+1
Georgia
16
Trump+3
Trump+4
Total 275 263
Logged
TightEnd
Administrator
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: The Next President of the United States
«
Reply #865 on:
October 09, 2016, 11:14:10 AM »
The Trump women learned long ago how to protect their privates parts when Trump is around them.
Logged
My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
TightEnd
Administrator
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: The Next President of the United States
«
Reply #866 on:
October 09, 2016, 11:15:01 AM »
the effect on the odds
Logged
My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
TightEnd
Administrator
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: The Next President of the United States
«
Reply #867 on:
October 09, 2016, 11:15:37 AM »
Click to see full-size image.
Click to see full-size image.
Logged
My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
DaveShoelace
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 9168
Re: The Next President of the United States
«
Reply #868 on:
October 09, 2016, 11:20:14 AM »
The debate tonight might be the television event of the decade.
Meanwhile Gary Johnson weighs in
Logged
DMorgan
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 4449
Re: The Next President of the United States
«
Reply #869 on:
October 09, 2016, 01:09:10 PM »
rofl Barry wins the thread, wpwp
Logged
Quote from: Karabiner on May 24, 2014, 12:47:13 PM
Is Dan awake yet?
Pages:
1
...
54
55
56
57
[
58
]
59
60
61
62
...
308
« previous
next »
Jump to:
Please select a destination:
-----------------------------
Poker Forums
-----------------------------
=> The Rail
===> past blonde Bashes
===> Best of blonde
=> Diaries and Blogs
=> Live Tournament Updates
=> Live poker
===> Live Tournament Staking
=> Internet Poker
===> Online Tournament Staking
=> Poker Hand Analysis
===> Learning Centre
-----------------------------
Community Forums
-----------------------------
=> The Lounge
=> Betting Tips and Sport Discussion
Loading...