Tips for Tikay

[Dubai]

Jayo is 5.6 to win bf now, so we are only losing 2.2% on the winbet. Recommend more on

[tikay]

You can modify stakes to reduce variance if you like ie

£150ew@4s
£70ew@14s
£50ew@20s

Tried for £150 EW on Jayo @ 4/1 with BetFred, they limited me to £209 (£104 EW). Can you re-balance those stakes for me please?

[Dubai]

Are betfred Best odds guaranteed? Hills are, so if Fred/Boyles aint obv bet it there

[class]

What is the expected outcome of the race, the clear favourite wins (expectedly) and then 2 of our 3 horses place to make a profit?

(Sorry for noob question!)

[Dubai]

The expected outcome of a one off race is that we will lose more often that we win.

Most likely outcome is we make a loss of less than 20% of outlay id assume. But when we win, we win a lot.

Obviously in the longterm we would win whatever the %s suggest

[Dubai]

Basically majority of the time we lose small or win big, in relation to outlay

You could reduce this by laying the win parts of each horse on betfair. Then the majority of the time we would win.

However you pay commission to reduce variance, and Fred is rolled for some variance, so i wouldnt recommend it for Fred.

[tikay]

Are betfred Best odds guaranteed? Hills are, so if Fred/Boyles aint obv bet it there

No, BetFred are not BOG, as far as I know.

But won't all three bets on the same race with Hills be an account closer?

As of now, I have placed £100 EW on all three - Jayo (the 4/1 shot) with Betfred, & the other two @ BOG with Wm Hill. Details shortly.  I had forgotten the BOG bit, ugh.

[class]

Cheers, now it makes sense.

[adnmdv]

Am confused. The -EV from a 4/1 that should be 4.6/1 is more than 2.2% no?

[tikay]

This is where we stand as of now......

£100 EW @ 4/1, BetFred, Jayo, 4.10 Exeter.

£100 EW @ 9/1, Wm Hill, Betabob, 4.10 Exeter

£100 EW @ 14/1, Wm Hill, Noble Ben, 4.10 Exeter.

ON

Bet placed, its reference is 116/121
Bet ref: 116/121 £100.00 Single
Market Selection Price Hcp
Exeter 16:10
Outright Betting
EW 1/5 1,2,3 Jayo 4/1  
Total stake £ 200.00
Estimated return £ 680.00


___

02 Apr 2013 - 4:10 Exeter - Win

Best Odds Guaranteed!

Betabob @ 9/1  EW @ 1/5 1-3

Stake : £200.00 (£100.00 x 2)
Estimated Returns : £1280.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000356/FSingle02 Apr 2013 - 4:10 Exeter - Win

Best Odds Guaranteed!


_____

Noble Ben @ 14/1  EW @ 1/5 1-3

Stake : £200.00 (£100.00 x 2)
Estimated Returns : £1880.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000357/F

___



Full stake £ 200.00
Full estimated return £ 680.00

[Marky147]

Am confused. The -EV from a 4/1 that should be 4.6/1 is more than 2.2% no?

Whooshes me too, but I'm guessing it's because you get a better price on the place than you can with Betfair.

[Dubai]

Am confused. The -EV from a 4/1 that should be 4.6/1 is more than 2.2% no?

I assume what you are trying to say is if we take 4/1 about a 4.6/1 chance when we win we give up £60 on top of the £400 we win, meaning 15% on top of our profits for a £100 win bet.

[Dubai]

But obviously you chose to ignore the place parts of the bet when saying that, given they would be higher ev than the %s i quoted lol. Shock

I quoted %s chances of each event occuring in relation to the price we are taking. Which is by far the simplest way of explaining bets to people

Ie taking 4/1 about a 4.6/1 chance means we are taking 20% about a realistic 17.8% chance, so therefore are taking 2.2% of the worst of it. Notice i quoted the place bets in the exact same way when I could have expressed them differently also

[MajorMajor]

There is a non runner so only 8 run. This means only 2 place no?

[adnmdv]

But obviously you chose to ignore the place parts of the bet when saying that, given they would be higher ev than the %s i quoted lol. Shock

I quoted %s chances of each event occuring in relation to the price we are taking. Which is by far the simplest way of explaining bets to people

Ie taking 4/1 about a 4.6/1 chance means we are taking 20% about a realistic 17.8% chance, so therefore are taking 2.2% of the worst of it. Notice i quoted the place bets in the exact same way when I could have expressed them differently also

Jayo we are taking 4/1, its 5/1 betfair so we have a rough expectation of -3.4% on the win bet. Ie for every £100 win bet we have, longterm we should lose £3.40

However at 1/5 odds top 3, we are getting 4/5  the place, on betfair its roughly 1/2 - we have a rough expectation of +11.1% on the place bet, longterm we win £11.10 for every £100 we place.

?