Betting In Play

[Ant040689]

From In play betting alone, can one make a good amount of profit long term and consistently? And was wondering what the strategies were that might be employed and are there many regular tendencies that happen in most matches that you can use as a rough guide?

Like a stupidly high percentage of goals coming in the last 10 mins or anything along those lines.

I am just drawn by the concept that if you can read a game superbly, you can have a great big edge on the game as it is happening. Also is it even possible to make your way in doing this solely as I imagine the bookies take a lot of value away with skimpy prices.

Obv a newb, so take this potential discussion with that in mind. 

[Doobs]

The person who sees the action live has the big edge vs the excellent game reader. 

[Ant040689]

Time delay is it?

How many seconds is it by. I have heard of guys doing it at the big racecourses. Definitely feel as if I am way out of the know.

[Tal]

A friend of a relative was a computer hacker back in the day and made an insane amount of money hacking into horse racing feeds and essentially beating the market by a couple of seconds. He wasn't a racing expert; just a reasonable knowledge combined with the technology to see further faster.

It might not be of interest but there's a quaint circle to the story. He was part of a group of lads who were doing various hacks (or whatever the term for it is). One of the lads got caught moving some of the money from a major bank elsewhere and soon found himself before a judge. He took a community service sentence after a chat with a man in a suit and ended up working for the good guys.

So, while my relative's friend was hacking into the SIS feed, his mate was working stopping hacks for a different SIS!

Made me smile anyway. The extent to which any of all of it is true I can't verify, but I would like to think it was.

[doubleup]

You have a tv/stream picture delay of varying amounts- so there is an advantage for those at the course or at the match.

The exchanges delay in play bets to counter this.  One second for racing, 5 secs for tennis golf, 8 secs for football.

Doubt that there is any edge vs bookies in-play bets but haven't looked much.

[Tal]

One of the elders on Tips for Tikay (90% sure it was BadBeat) said something like "there's always someone with a better stream", implying that it is nigh-on impossible to make a steady income from in play racing.

[henrik777]

One good strategy is to look for games where a massive favourite is behind and they have already been racking up corners. Corners in play tend to be pretty much the same, or near enough, no matter who is playing. They take the corners so far and add on a number depending on time left. It doesn't vary much.

A high corner team that needs to press is a great situation and generally doesn't need a  super fast stream.

Sandy

[The Camel]

I find in play betting one of the few ways you can still glean a decent edge over the dastardly bookmakers.

Especially when something unusual happens in an event.

For example in last Thursday's NFL game both starting QBs were knocked out of the game early on.

Cleveland were slight favs for the game pre match.

The back up QBs who entered the game were of massively differing experience though.

Weeden, a former first round pick who has 20+ NFL starts, came in for the Browns and Tuel, an undrafted rookie, who had never played a snap of a reg season game debuted for Buffalo.

When the scores were tied near ht, the prices were exactly the same as pre match.

Clearly a great spot to e betting Cleveland.

Stuff like red cards, bad injuries, weather and countless other factors can skew a market massively and it's our job to work out whether the market has moved enough or too much.

All in all, some great spots occur now and again.

But beware the people with faster pictures!

[claypole]

I find in play betting one of the few ways you can still glean a decent edge over the dastardly bookmakers.

Especially when something unusual happens in an event.

For example in last Thursday's NFL game both starting QBs were knocked out of the game early on.

Cleveland were slight favs for the game pre match.

The back up QBs who entered the game were of massively differing experience though.

Weeden, a former first round pick who has 20+ NFL starts, came in for the Browns and Tuel, an undrafted rookie, who had never played a snap of a reg season game debuted for Buffalo.

When the scores were tied near ht, the prices were exactly the same as pre match.

Clearly a great spot to e betting Cleveland.

Stuff like red cards, bad injuries, weather and countless other factors can skew a market massively and it's our job to work out whether the market has moved enough or too much.

All in all, some great spots occur now and again.

But beware the people with faster pictures!

This, in everything and its significantly more than many think as latency is often 10-15 seconds better for those that have rather than those that don't

[The Camel]

I find in play betting one of the few ways you can still glean a decent edge over the dastardly bookmakers.

Especially when something unusual happens in an event.

For example in last Thursday's NFL game both starting QBs were knocked out of the game early on.

Cleveland were slight favs for the game pre match.

The back up QBs who entered the game were of massively differing experience though.

Weeden, a former first round pick who has 20+ NFL starts, came in for the Browns and Tuel, an undrafted rookie, who had never played a snap of a reg season game debuted for Buffalo.

When the scores were tied near ht, the prices were exactly the same as pre match.

Clearly a great spot to e betting Cleveland.

Stuff like red cards, bad injuries, weather and countless other factors can skew a market massively and it's our job to work out whether the market has moved enough or too much.

All in all, some great spots occur now and again.

But beware the people with faster pictures!

This, in everything and its significantly more than many think as latency is often 10-15 seconds better for those that have rather than those that don't

This is why betting in running on NFL is so great.

When it's a time out, it is a level playing field.

Same for tennis at end changes and snooker between frames.

[vegaslover]

Like all betting it still comes down to knowledge of your market.

Back in the day I used to make a bit by getting on goals/results bets say 20 mins after kickoff. The price would/could change significantly from pre kickoff prices. Market much more astute nowadays though.

Cricket is good for betting in play. Books just don't get priced up for change i.e. a couple of quick wickets. Again you need to have a good knowledge of the market to know where the price should be.

[redarmi]

I would add a word of caution here.  In running betting can be hugely lucrative but sporting knowledge (especially football knowledge) is a bit like sex and poker in that everyone thinks they are better at it than they are.  In reality betting in running is very much like betting before events.  You have to have an underlying understanding of what the prices and probabilities should be and how what you are seeing affects that.  Anyone can watch a game and see who is playing better but in a vacuum that information is likely to be useless.  The bookmaker can see it too.  Have you spotted that a key player has just picked up a knock?  Do you know the backups better than the bookie is likely to adjust to.  I don't bet a huge amount in play at the moment because I don't trust my pictures but I do bet a LOT at halftime and very, very often I am betting on the teams that are playing worse because I think the books overrate how often what you have seen in the first half of a game will be repeated in the second half and getting a really good understanding for how much weight to put on that is important.  Also you have to bear in mind that it is the job of coaches and managers to change what they have seen when it isn't working.  Try to swim against the tide.  Think to yourself "what is everyone else that si watching and betting on this game seeing?"  What could be wrong about their perception and how could you profit from thinking differently?

[ACE2M]

I would add a word of caution here.  In running betting can be hugely lucrative but sporting knowledge (especially football knowledge) is a bit like sex and poker in that everyone thinks they are better at it than they are.  In reality betting in running is very much like betting before events.  You have to have an underlying understanding of what the prices and probabilities should be and how what you are seeing affects that.  Anyone can watch a game and see who is playing better but in a vacuum that information is likely to be useless.  The bookmaker can see it too.  Have you spotted that a key player has just picked up a knock?  Do you know the backups better than the bookie is likely to adjust to.  I don't bet a huge amount in play at the moment because I don't trust my pictures but I do bet a LOT at halftime and very, very often I am betting on the teams that are playing worse because I think the books overrate how often what you have seen in the first half of a game will be repeated in the second half and getting a really good understanding for how much weight to put on that is important.  Also you have to bear in mind that it is the job of coaches and managers to change what they have seen when it isn't working.  Try to swim against the tide.  Think to yourself "what is everyone else that si watching and betting on this game seeing?"  What could be wrong about their perception and how could you profit from thinking differently?

Books overate because books move ever closer to representing the money down rather than the true price because they have to.

[redarmi]

Books overate because books move ever closer to representing the money down rather than the true price because they have to.

Why do they have to do this in running but not prematch?  I must admit I think one major mistake UK and European bookmakers do is not moving their prices enough.  I think this is a legacy of the days of holding the price for the racing post but in this day and age that is totally outdated.