I hope jek wasn't offended by some of the banter?

I noticed he didn't post for the last couple of months of the season (which seemed a bit weird as he made the Championship game!), so if he didn't like it/understand it, apologise and tell him it was nothing personal!

I like the exact league format we've got.

No problem at all. As Sheriff said, I just became swamped with a bunch of other commitments, so didn't have time to banter as would have been proper.

As far as the team goes, I can't believe this piece of shit squad made it as far as it did. This team was more or less garbage that just got a nice string of lucky breaks/big games. Of course, I've had awesome teams get pwned by variance before, so I guess it all works out. Grats to you Camel on the big win, it's always good to see someone with a healthy enjoyment for the hobby have a good first experience. You should be thoroughly hooked now.

You guys seem like a good group, and if we were ever to meet up, I'd be happy to buy you a beer. Well, except Horneris, he'd have to lick my taint first.

Happy New Year, and best of luck to you all next year.

As many GMs can probably attest, I've been shopping 2 WRs for 1 for a couple weeks now. I guess Sheriff was finally the one who found an offer to his liking. Fwiw, I have Brown as WR9 going forward, Austin as WR17, and DeSean as WR29. This trade was the 8th of these I'd proposed this week, so quite a few others had a shot at this type of deal. I can get into the 'why' of my rankings if it would assuage any concerns.

wow, Jek really seems like a slimeball with his latest post. Offering out $10,000 cock-waving wagers.

Still won't take the $100 Witten v Miller bet after claiming Miller was an upgrade I see. What a surprise.

We had a nice friendly league last season were everyone had fun with each other and no one tried to take advantage of anyone. Whereas I see Jek has put a severe dent in poor Tightends chances this season with the trade today.

I will be rooting for his opponent every single week from here on out in the hopes that good, honest, friendly forum people overcome evil hustlers.

I was all set to tear this post of bollocks apart, when it finally hit me what I was dealing with here. I hate being out leveled, so well done sir, well done.

He offered me the worst trade I have ever been offered in any fantasy league. Heath Miller (pick 153 in the draft) for Jeremy Maclin (pick 68).

Hey, it's not my fault you overdrafted WRs and underdrafted TEs.

he drafted finley, witten and chandler...

Fair enough. Consider my corrected post to read:

"Hey, it's not my fault the league overdrafted WRs and underdrafted TEs and you mistakenly used that as an accurate gauge of value."

[below average]

He offered me the worst trade I have ever been offered in any fantasy league. Heath Miller (pick 153 in the draft) for Jeremy Maclin (pick 68).

Hey, it's not my fault you overdrafted WRs and underdrafted TEs.

I am aware that tightends hold extra value in this league but this is a below average tightend

We currently roster 31 TEs in our league. Do you want to make a bet about if Miller will finish in the top 15? No? That's what I thought.

Trade rape isn't a crime, you can just say no, but it his reply to me when I said no and asked if he was talking the piss that I have a problem with and I wouldn't like to see other forum members be hoodwinked by this menace.

Jek "Didn't think I was taking the piss. I figured you could use an upgrade over Witten, and Maclin is just a reserve for you, so it seemed to me that the deal made sense. In terms of total value, Heath is even worth a hair more than Maclin imo. But to each their own, I'll leave you out of future offers so as to avoid offending you in the future."

Funny thing here from someone so obsessed with calling someone else a liar, how you distorted the actual chain of events. I send you the (very reasonable) Miller for Maclin offer, and you counter with Ogletree, Schaub, Donald Brown, and Matt Bryant (yes, a kicker) for Matt Ryan, Jimmy Graham, Miles Austin, and DeMarco Murray. In the comments for the trade rejection, I put something along the lines of "I don't understand this offer". To which you replied "The point is that if you take the piss, I take the piss." This is a little different chain of events than what you described.

I was amazed he claimed Heath Miller was an upgrade over Jason Witten. Witten is coming into full health now after a spleen injury and it is only a matter of time till he starts firing again (he dropped a simple 40 yard td after running a beautiful route on Sunday). So i replied offering him a small wager, $50 or $100 Witten vs Miller fantasy points from this point onwards.

The reason that Jek claimed I had to make the trade was that Miller was an upgrade on Witten and on that statement alone I wanted to make a wager which I was certain he would have to accept after what he said, surely?

If we're going to make every statement made as a betting point, then let's do it. Witten vs. Miller, Miller vs. TE15, and to prove that not only was my initial offer not the "worst offer he ever received in any fantasy league" but actually a sensible one, I'd like to repropose my other betting offer, that we compare Maclin to WR30 (the number of starting WRs in our league (24 + 6 flex)) and Miller to TE24 (the number of starting TEs in our league) and show that Miller is actually more valuable than Maclin.

fwiw guys my problem with Jek was less about the trade offer and more about the fact that he claimed Miller was an upgrade to Witten then backed down when offered a wager, therefore he was comprehensively lying to someone he thought knew little about the sport.

Oh ffs, you call my offer to you the "worst offer you've ever received in any fantasy league" and are obviously incensed by it, so you do the childish thing and counter my reasonable offer with a total pile of crap. And you say I backed down from the bet when I merely said I preferred the other one I outlined. It seems to me the trade is what really upset you, but you have become convinced it was a pretty solid offer, so now have to hang your hat on the Witten/Miller comment. And you have the audacity to say I'm "comprehensively lying".

If you want to put your money where your mouth is, let's do this.
1) Miller vs. Witten for weeks 4-16 for $100.
2) Miller vs. TE15 for $100.
3) Miller compared to TE24 vs. Maclin compared to WR30. I'm willing to bet any amount you want here. I figure since that was the "worst trade you've ever received" that you'd be happy to lay odds here that Miller isn't more valuable than Maclin. I'm not even going to ask for that. But if you want to put $10k on this to really put a '!' on your point, then I'll be happy to entertain that.
4) Any chance we get you to bet on that clunker you proposed to me? Yeah, didn't think so.

All bets escrowed and arbitrated by Fatman, assuming he agrees to do it.

Hi Jek,

We start 1qb, 1rb, 2wr  1te, 1 flex of any of those positions. We reduced the rb's picked this season and took the total players in a team down from 9 to 8.

I guessed I wouldn't get any of the top players in other positions( I could have taken Jones at wr instead) but thought the two TE there to fill the flex and then 1 rb and a wr with the next two picks was ok.Did I make a mistake in that format taking the two TE first?

I think the rest of the league took their rb's early, there were a lot of 2 rb 2wr openings to fill the rb wr flex positions. Would a TE and say Jones there and then looking for Gates around round 4 have been better. I drafted it last week but I have another one this weekend that  is an 11 man starting team with only 3 bench players, that league includes a DL and a LB too. If you have any gems in those positions I would appreciate it along with your thoughts on only taking 3 sub players.

cheers

Oh wow, I didn't realize your flex allowed for QBs. That changes everything. Here's why:
Before looking into the flex, this 14 team league will have its top 14 QBs as starters, its top 14 RBs as starters, its top 28 WRs as starters, and its top 14 TEs as starters. So, to decide what position we want in the flex, we just need to look at who'll score the most points out of the remaining players. These players are QB15, RB15, WR29, and TE15. My projections put them at 217, 164, 127, and 87 respectively. The QB is obviously the huge winner here. How far down the QB list do we have to go for a QB to score less than 164 (that's RB15)? I have QB27 at 166, QB28 at 157. Since we only need 14 more players to fill the flex position across the whole league, theoretically that's 13 QBs and 1 RB. However, I think in practical terms, that this league is essentially a start 2 QB league.

So, how to adjust for this exact league setting? Well, QBs are hugely more valuable. Off the top of my head, the top 7 players on my board would all be QBs. Having 2 top QBs in this league would be a dominant force. So yes, I'd take Michael Vick ahead of Arian Foster, weird as that sounds.

Now, what about the other positions? Well, first off, it's weird that the league only starts 1 RB, while starting 2 WRs. This has the effect of devaluing RBs somewhat. I'd still prefer Foster to Tron or Graham, but not by much. My top 6 non-QBs would probably look like: Foster, Tron, Graham, Rice, Gronk, Shady. Without actually setting up my spreadsheet for a draft in this format, I'd roughly say that RBs, WRs, and TEs, all have approximately equal value. However, QBs dwarf them all. If I was making an overall value board for this league, I'd have the 7 QBs up front, then the 6 elite positional players I mentioned, but along with them, I'd probably intersperse another handful of QBs. Make no mistake about it, this league is all about QBs. Get 2 stud QBs and you win. Hoard them. If you roster 4, and a couple other teams do that, some teams won't have starters on their bye weeks. And an injury could leave a team lacking one, forcing them to start some RB/WR/TE that will "always" be inferior to a QB.

This situation differs so much from our league, because our league requires 2 TEs. You do not want to be the guy who has to trot out Anthony Fasano and his 4PPG every week in your TE2 position. In your league though, the likes of Fasano won't sniff a roster. Meanwhile though, guys like Joe Flacco are hot commodities in your league because even mediocre QBs like that still hold value to start in the flex position, because even a mediocre QB will outscore all but the very best RBs, and WRs/TEs can't hope to compete. Even Tron will likely come up short vs. a mediocre QB.

As far as your 3-man bench league goes, my advice to you would be to not do it. Just sounds like a terrible format. Failing that, just remember that you have to devalue guys who are hurt/suspended/holding out (Mathews, Mo-Jo, etc). Each bench spot is very valuable, and once you get to bye weeks, you may need all of them to field a complete lineup without having to cut any of your starters. For the love of god, don't roster an extra K, D, IDP, or TE. A 2nd QB is also probably a no-go as well. You basically have to think of your bench players as entirely expendable, as you'll need those spots to occasionally bench your starters for when they get hurt or have terribad match-ups. Speaking of match-ups, don't be afraid to just play match-ups the whole year at QB if you don't end up with an elite one. I don't really follow IDPs, so can't give any decent advice there, except I know Patrick Willis is a beast. But other than just a couple guys, just treat them like the replaceable commodities they are.

Jek - change your Signature IMMEDIATELY.

The date is 31/8/12, NOT 8/31/12.

I'm so disappointed in you.

Wait, you're actually disappointed that the random American on the forums has come in with a total disregard for the preferred syntax of the community he's entered, and just done something his way? I'd think that was more or less expected.

I'm so disappointed in you for being disappointed in me.

Oh, & I should introduce myself. I'm Tony Kendall, & I'm a sort of superstar poker player, young & extremely handsome, I CRUSH epically, I'm even known to be sick.

Now, the thing is......

We have a "Tips" Thread, started by your new friend "Camel", a very long-standing pal of mine. We back things, you know, sports betting.

It is here....

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=56581.14310

So if you ever have a spare moment, feel free to pop onto our thread & give us a tip each week on ther NFL. (Use short words please).

Give us a winner, & I'll give you a huge kiss.....

I usually shy away from even beginning to spend any serious brainpower on NFL sides or totals during the NFL season. I don't particularly care to compete with people smarter than me. I like picking on the weak and powerless. Drunks at the poker table, babies with candy, whores looking for crack, you know, that sort of thing. So I won't be able to give you weekly tips unfortunately. However, when Pinny brings their NFL win totals up again, I think I'll have some thoughts that may compel you to make a wager. That is, assuming futures are acceptable bets (once the time-value of money is accounted for).

Hello Jek, loving your Posts, though I can't pretend to undersatand a word of then. Fun to read though, & I go cross-eyed working them out.

And the weirdest compliment I've received in at least a month is the winner for the first signature of my Blondepoker career.

What I DO understand however, is the blonde PM system.

You cannot use it until you have TEN Posts. Which you now do. So PM away sir, PM away.

This is fantastic news, and the PM has already been fired away. I will use the system responsibly and with care.

Fantasy Soccer? - ugh, the name sounds so wrong.

I've been playing Fantasy Football since around 1992 and we have a league on here (we'll have to get you playing this next season!!) - http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=58534.0

It's the 'simple format', which probably 95% of leagues play, where everyone can pick from the same player pool (so we can all have the same teams in theory).  It can be played with an auction, which is immense fun but more of a hassle to organise.

You're right about that, fantasy soccer does sound wrong. I can't believe you degens actually play that.

As a newbie who got first pick, is it considered best to be first and therefore last in the second round or somewhere near the end of round 1 as you are most likely to get 2 genuine superstars?

Rodgers would be number 1 pick in every league, right?

To answer your 2nd question, in a "standard" league (start: 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE) Arian Foster is usually the 1st player off the board. Then it's close between Rice/Rodgers followed by Shady. Imo, that would be in a 6pt passing TD league, in a 4pt passing TD league, Rodgers basically "has" to be outside the top 3. http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2012/adp

However, in a league like this, TEs command a *huge* premium. TE24 is going to be starting for someone. TE24 may not have an EV above 4PPG. The elite 2 figure to be good for 10-11 PPG, and the next two figure to be good for ~9PPG, when you can get a 5-7PPGX2 advantage over a typical starter in the league, that's a crushing edge. So I was thrilled to get Graham at 1.09. I'd have taken him as high as 1.04 (only behind the Big 3 RBs). If Gronk had fallen to me at 2.04, I'd have been even more ecstatic. He was the 7th player on my board, behind just the aforementioned 4 players, Tron, and Rodgers.

To answer your 1st question, from a pure EV perspective, the value of draft picks goes in order (1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc). The reason for this is because the difference in value from pick 1 to pick 12 > difference in value from pick 13 to pick 24. This is because as you proceed down your list of players, their values are going to get progressively closer together. So the 1st pick is usually the best, followed by the 2nd and so on. There are occasionally odd situations that come up that will change that, but I'll avoid getting into them here as I'm probably already being confusing enough.

The concept I'm sort of dancing around here is called "VBD" or Value Based Drafting. Here's an article that gives a very good description of it: http://www.footballguys.com/05vbdrevisited.htm. There are some inherent problems with VBD, but it's light years ahead of guessing where the value is.

great stuff Jek. I actually did pull the double TE off in a 14 man league drafting 14 each that starts only 6 outfield players and a K and D, with 1 TE and a flex that can be a TE where I traded picks pre draft and had pick 14 and 15. I managed to get Graham and Gronk there which was the plan when getting those picks together.From there I took Sproles and then Jordy Nelson and Torrey Smith so in that team I almost start 5 wr it just happens that one is called a rb and two are called TE's. It backs up your example of having the real strength at TE that is way in front of the others and my rb and wr are in the second tier of players in those possies but much closer to their picks than my oppo's TE are to mine.

abs loved your relationship/FFB analogy too.

I hope I didn't lead you astray here. If your league's lineup is 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE + 1 RB/WR/TE flex, TEs aren't nearly as valuable. Since you'll likely only start one TE, it'll be rare to have a 2nd TE on your team that'll produce enough points to be used as your flex. I currently project Gronk out at 155 points. That equates roughly to WR8, and RB15, so there are lots of better players than Gronk for flex duty. The good news here though is that it's not that bad of an error. I haven't put together a board for a 14 team, 14-man roster draft like what you had, but I think you got good value with both of those picks. Or to put another way, my gut tells that those guys would have been inside my top 15 players. So you certainly have the option to trade that should make-up for the lost value of the Gronk pick. Heck, it's possible you could even net a better deal than what you could have gotten if you had drafted QB/RB/WR with the 2.01 pick. Apologies again though if I lead you astray, or if I misread your league's actual starting parameters.

From there though, I like what you did with the draft. I'm personally a fan of both Jordy Nelson and Torrey Smith. I'm not so high on Sproles (unless it's a PPR league) but if you like him, then he's great to have there as well.

Finally, I can't respond to your PM. I think it's because I'm on probation here. Once I'm entrusted with the awesome power of being able to respond to PMs on here, I'll get back to you. Or you can PM me your email address and I'll hit you up there.

Jek,huge Cowboys fan here

Not only do I have to cope with us choking twice a year against the Eagles, and Sheriff trying not to gloat, I now have another Skins fan, this time with his very own franchise quarterback to support, to avoid?

and we start on National TV, UK and US away at the Giants?

FML.

I think I actually hate the Cowboys more than I like the Redskins. The good news is that I've long since accepted the Redskins to be mediocre at best until Dan Snyder is no more, so I'm loathe to talk any trash. I expect the losses, and the wins are just gravy. You won't need to avoid me, we can just avoid saying anything complimentary about the Eagles.

I feel like a poker player who randomly saw a seat open in a poker room.

Bought in and put my chips on the table before realising I'm sat with Ivey, Antonius and Dwan.

Thank God Eli Elezra in the shape of Chip Rich is in the game too.

I think there is a good shot that I'm Elezra and if not the next one down the ladder from him

I know I want Jek to post as much as he possibly can, so I can learn plenty and hopefully next year know what I'm doing.

I love NFL and absolutely love betting on it, but I know absolutely squat other than the players that I bet on for First TD each week.....

Really looking forward to this and even more gutted I couldn't do the draft now

The draft is definitely the single most fun part of FFB. You may want to join a free league on Yahoo or something and do a draft there just for the experience. It's a great time.

I'll write more about FFB strategy/theorycrafting if you'd like, just shoot me some questions. That VBD article I linked before though is an important starting point. Plus it's 7 years old, so the names are an amusing blast from the past.

Oh, by the way, if you havent spotted, jek is a bit of a nerd when it comes to Fantasy Football

He is eminently beatable though.  All the research in the world can't overcome the basic distortion of reality he gets from being a Skins fan!

Should make for some interesting discussions though and I suspect we'll all learn a thing or too.

Nerd? Absolutely. Eminently beatable? Well, I guess if you mean that in the same way that AA is eminently beatable preflop, then yes, I'd agree there. Just know I'm getting my money in with the best of it.

And I don't know if being a Redskins fan distorts my reality, or because I have a distorted sense of reality, I am a 'Skins fan. But that does segue into making very clear where rooting for the Redskins stands on my rooting priority list. From lowest to highest:

The Redskins: They're kind of like a stripper. I may enjoy watching them play, but nothing I ever do will ever have a meaningful impact on what they do, are, or think about me. Only my money keeps the stripper rubbing up against me, once my money is gone and I'm not buying tickets to games, apparel, TV/internet viewing packages, they have absolutely zero interest in me. Still, there's no denying they're fun to watch.

Any sports bets I have: These are like 1-night stands. They're fun to root for, and even if you have an established track record of (un)successfully pulling them off, all you know are your general chances of it working out favorably. Because on any bet/any pick-up attempt, anything can happen, but you know it's never going to last.

My redrafter FFB teams: These are like a girlfriend. A good deal of choice and pride goes into them. I care what they're like. They reflect on me. A good girl/team reflects favorably on me, and is a hell of a lot more fun than a gf/team that's ugly/psychotic/terrible which just make you "that guy".

Now, the absolute top priority is the dynasty team. This like a wife. It is a lifelong (or at least very long) commitment. And while sometimes luck can lead to drawing a bad gf or having a bad FFB season, there is only person who gets the credit for what a dynasty team looks like. I've created my dynasty team lovingly and with pride. We're going to be very happy together for a long time. Coincidentally, I mentioned this set of analogies to my wife, and she wasn't exactly amused. But whatever. My dynasty team is awesome.

And, as you've mentioned the Dynasty League, this gives me a chance to give a bit of background info on the apparent ringer I've brought into the league.

I met jek several years ago when we were both active on 2+2, via a mutual UK-based friend on there.  The friend was playing in the Dynasty league and suggested me to jek as a possible player for a planned expansion to that league.  I'm still waiting to get into that league but a couple of years ago jek invited me to play a redrafter league he was running (I think as a trial run on potential D-League candidates to check whether they could demonstrate the required commitment - i.e. not abandoning teams mid-season).

That was my first Fantasy NFL experience, and I basically went through a lot of what you guys experienced last/this season.  At the time I knew the Eagles squad, the big name players and the names of 1st round draft picks from watching it on Sky that year.  Consequently, I drafted a 'newbie' squad (I remember Golden Tate being a pick) and scrambled to a lower mid-table finish.  However, by then I was hooked and had learnt enough of the basics to feel like I could do better.  2nd time around (last season), the league became the monster 'double roster' beast that I've mentioned on here a few times and I won it (in truth I destroyed the league part - I think I was 200pts ahead of the next team - the achievement was surviving the play-off lottery!)

I'd also become hooked enough by that point to want to play more leagues, which led to me starting this one last season.  So, in a roundabout way, without jek this league wouldn't have existed!  (He's also the one I've nicked many of the ideas from such as the variable buy-in, to give him due credit).

So for those anyone who's feeling out of their depth at the moment, it doesn't take long to become competitive (or get lucky) and most of you guys are way ahead in terms of starting knowledge base on general NFL than I was.

On a personal note, I'd definitely say jek is one of the smartest people I know and without doubt the most analytical, hence you'll often get the incredibly well thought out bits of info as earlier.  Like all of us, he likes to look for an edge in whatever he sets his mind to (he plays poker too, and likes the odd wager here and there!)

Jek - for your info - I'd say you're playing in a league where the NFL knowledge is way beyond a typical UK cross-section.  A lot of the guys here bet seriously on the NFL (amongst other things) and there's some very shrewd minds on here (Tighty, for example, is a walking encyclopaedia of knowledge on pretty much everything).  Even if some of them are still getting used to the Fantasy side of things, I expect this league to be really competitive (and a lot of fun).  I definitely think you have a shot at 2nd place if you bring your A-game!

Appreciate the compliments. And while I'm definitely analytical, you guys may see some strange things from me. It may help explain them to remember you can't spell "analytical" without "anal".

My redrafter FFB teams: These are like a girlfriend. A good deal of choice and pride goes into them. I care what they're like. They reflect on me. A good girl/team reflects favorably on me, and is a hell of a lot more fun than a gf/team that's ugly/psychotic/terrible which just make you "that guy".

Jek - I might change my name to "that guy" nice analogy.

Sheriff thanks for taking the time for organising.
Draft was good, I like others failed to compensate for the 2 TE change but ho hum, its all a learning curve - made a bad mistake taking Vick so early and lack any real depth but it will be a fun season I am sure - maybe my 2 main RB's can have the occasional huge week together and upset the odd team to keep it interesting.

Good luck all.

Glad you liked the analogy. Had fun writing it up.

Overall, I think the league drafted very well. I know two Brits fairly well, and they have both led me to believe that most of you guys are almost entirely clueless when it comes to American sports. Obviously, this group doesn't make an accurate representation of the typical population, as the draft was just as tough as many drafts that I've been in for a similar price against Yanks (not that we as a people are very good at too much anymore. Well, except food. We're good at food.) Nobody took a kicker in the first round, nobody drafted somebody out for the year early. Yeah, the 2 TE thing was largely not adjusted, but when most people don't adjust for something like that, at least the individual effect per team is fairly small.

Also, there's a ton of variance involved in FFB, and your team is nowhere near bad enough to be counted out of it. Especially if you stay involved the whole way through, good things can easily happen.