Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

http://www.sbnation.com/golf/2014/7/31/5957187/golf-ball-sticks-to-tree-under-bark-kevin-streelman-wgc-bridgestone

Play the ball where it lies.

[Doobs]

DODGEPOT
Pether's Moon is 13/8 in the 1.55 tomorrow, which is close to the Betfair price.  I like the horse, but Neil wrote something unflattering when we backed it at Ascot.   It also course and distance form, and finished close to Cavalryman last time.  The race before it was thrashed by Telescope having a rare good day.  

As a sop to Betting Emporium, I have allowed them to put a subtle subliminal message in this post.  I am sure we can ignore that and just go with the maths in this case.

DODGEPOT

Moving on, I am sure we can back Shifting Power in the 2.20 at 15/8.  He has good from with Australia and Kingman, so should be good enough.

FWIW Blonde favourite Belgian Bill runs again tomorrow in the 3.05.  He has what would normally look the best draw in 1 (http://www.drawbias.com/courses/Goodwood/Goodwood8.html), but is usually held up which is going to counterbalance it.

There is a bit of 10/1 at Hills amongst others.  I have just put it on the mobile to get money back for 2nd.   I think the bigger price and the offer means this putting it on the mobile with Hills is better than taking the 9/1 with 5 places at Coral.  

Given the prize money, we should be safe to get 16 in this one, so lots of bets are going to be good in this race (here you get 5/2 on a horse that looks to be settling at 9/4).   Hence think 20 each way should be fine.

LATE EDIT - do not back unless 16+ runners half an hour before the race

[MereNovice]

July 2014 Figures

Closed bets: 141
Amount wagered: £3,140.28
Profit/loss: £456.46
ROI: 14.54%

Number of "sports" bet on: 14
Most popular:  Horses (30), Golf (29), Football (19).

Most and least profitable sports (based on monthly profit/loss) are:

Sport               Profit  Amt Bet       ROI   No.
Golf   305.70   524.30   58.31   29
Darts 165.00   200.00   82.50   6
Horses 106.75   666.85   16.01   30

...

Tennis -32.42   250.00   -12.97   9
Gaelic Football -44.70   44.70   -100.00   2
Cycling -138.28   138.28   -100.00   18


Number of tipsters: 32 including 1 new tipster.


Overall statistics (since February 2012)

Total closed bets: 3,714
Amount wagered: £114,746.43
Profit/loss: £4,023.35
ROI: 3.51%

Number of "sports" bet on: 32
Most popular: Football (936),  Horses(926), Golf (310), Cricket(237).

Most and least profitable sports (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
        
Sport               Profit  Amt Bet       ROI   No.
[bFootball   2,115.23   29,285.34   7.22   926
Horses   1,664.71   30,277.28   5.50   936
Misc.   860.47   3,603.07   23.88   95[/b]
...
Formula1   -378.95   1,372.58   -27.61   64
Snooker   -383.00   1,118.00   -34.26   31
Golf   -787.56   8,347.64   -9.43   310


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=4


Total number of tipsters: 156


Number of different bookies/exchanges/agents: 43

Most and least profitable bookies (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
        
Bookie          Profit     Amt Bet   ROI     No.
BoyleSports      2,510.40   4,515.45   55.60   115
WilliamHill      1,341.39   19,860.66   6.75   649
Bet365      1,108.38   5,016.60   22.09   222
...
Coral      -460.74   7,116.20   -6.47   245
PaddyPower      -482.27   7,611.38   -6.34   355
BetFred      -880.38   8,694.17   -10.13   285


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=7


The archive of all bets prior to 2014 can be found here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdHVrekx6T0REUXVNOWw5YTVWa0pWZGc#gid=7

[Kmac84]

Doobs what are your thoughts on Muteela for the Hills offer? 

Looks pretty solid to me.   But the maths aspect isn't my strong point. 

[Peter-27]

Formula1   -378.95   1,372.58   -27.61   64
Snooker   -383.00   1,118.00   -34.26   31
Golf   -787.56   8,347.64   -9.43   310

Formula One is moving up the list! I'm quite proud of this :-)

[redarmi]

First thought for the eneffelle season...

I'm intending to do a proper bit of work on the AFC East this weekend, with a view to proposing some bets. One that's struck me by surprise straight away is the Miami Finishing Position market that the red shouty man has.

Second: 6/4
Third: 2/1
Fourth: 4/1
First: 5/1

Now, we can obviously exclude divisional champs. The Patriots with Wilfork, Vereen and The Gronk back are a completely different prospect to 2013/14. They could win 12 games this season. Miami should be delighted with 8.

Jets and Bills have strengthened in the summer; the Dolphins haven't brought in the same level of new blood. Tannehill can't have much longer to go as the franchise QB, he has a roster devoid of experience (and, arguably, much talent) and the team doesn't have enough firepower against three strong defences twice to threaten at the top. The Jets have made some excellent signings and I can see them making the playoffs (mug comment, granted).

Miami's early schedule includes Kansas City (h), Oakland away and Green Bay at home, followed by a trip to Chicago. After eight weeks, they could very realistically be 2-5 (bye in week 5) and heaped in pressure.

It looks like a two horse race for third between Buffalo and Miami and 4/1 for it to be Buffalo pipping Miami seems crazy to me. Buffalo are 2/1 to finish third btw in the equivalent market with the same bookie.

Deep breath...

Recommend £50 on Miami to finish fourth in the AFC East at 4/1 with the red shouty man.





(Also, don't tell Flushy)

I think this is a really good bet.  Mike Pouncey is out for at least half of the season and Center is the most underrated position in football.  They showed some bits of practise on the local news here the other day and they had tried like 3 different guys at Center and none were working out and the snaps were going all over the place and Philbin was talking about "thinking outside the box" in terms of which players play where.....they just seem an absolute mess and the whole bullying thing has decimated them and might take away a bit of edge this year.  I would make them favourites to come last off the top of my head albeit without having done hardly any work on it.

[Doobs]

Doobs what are your thoughts on Muteela for the Hills offer? 

Looks pretty solid to me.   But the maths aspect isn't my strong point. 

It has to be a race on the TV to qualify for the offer this week.  They sometimes extend it to the whole meeting, but haven't here.

Had a bit of a shocker with the b365 offer today.  Managed to find Cavalryman, but completely missed the free bet after.  Have such a terrible record for utilising the bets under that offer.  Guess I have missed about a third of follow up bets, and some of those I have backed, I did them without realising I had an offer going.

[BigAdz]

Doobs what are your thoughts on Muteela for the Hills offer? 

Looks pretty solid to me.   But the maths aspect isn't my strong point. 

It has to be a race on the TV to qualify for the offer this week.  They sometimes extend it to the whole meeting, but haven't here.

Had a bit of a shocker with the b365 offer today.  Managed to find Cavalryman, but completely missed the free bet after.  Have such a terrible record for utilising the bets under that offer.  Guess I have missed about a third of follow up bets, and some of those I have backed, I did them without realising I had an offer going.

Agreed.

This offer does my nut in. I am forever forgetting to do the next race etc. I have asked that they ping some sort of PM, but I'm sure they don't in order to catch fools like us.

[horseplayer]

I had quite a long convo with 366 about the offer the day

Not sure if this is widely known but ill say it anyway. I had already had a bet in the first and the second, the live chat op explained that if my highest racecard number had won the first (as i placed the bet at the same time) because i had already placed the bet in the second a £50 free bet would be automatically triggered onto the second race on that horse by the system.

[horseplayer]

As Rubbish is to busy to do his excellent pic galleries anymore i am bringing in a new feature by popular request (ahem)


TWEET OF THE DAY




If this doesnt bring Rubbish back nothing willl!

[Tal]

Might be because it's 8:15am, but I'm going to need that explaining!

Willie Thorne. The Beatles. Ed Sullivan Show...in the Scullery with the lead piping?

[horseplayer]

From the new but so far excellent @WillieWozHere

[BigAdz]

Might be because it's 8:15am, but I'm going to need that explaining!

Willie Thorne. The Beatles. Ed Sullivan Show...in the Scullery with the lead piping?

Nah...don't get it either.

[horseplayer]

As with much of my stuff there is nothing to get

BRING BACK RUBBISH

[Doobs]

I can't edit my previous post.

That Belgian Bill race now has only 18 as opposed to 20 when I looked.  So there is a significant possibility that 3 injuries discovered by their trainers could shaft us by off time. As I said yesterday I thought the big first prize would stop this, but think it is better for those not on already to wait until half an hour before the race.  Hopefully Neil doesn't cause the price to fall before the race.