blonde poker forum

On PNL last night Tikayw as saying he never really believd in books and that there where loads of free information about poker on the net.  However one of my gripes is yes there is laods of free information but how do you split the good from the bad?

There was talk of calculating your odds and on a few occasions now I have seen Tikay advocate the x4 rule, how accurate is this?  And does it only apply on the flop? 

Your odds of hitting one of your outs diminish each time we see another card, so if you have x amount of out on the flop but on the river you may have the same numebr of outs surely you are less likely to hit?

What do you folks on here suggest as the best way f calculation your odds, and whats the easiest way to remember your chnaces of hitting?

Solomon's rule


multiply your number of outs after the flop by 4

after the turn by 2

compare to the bet you are required to make relative to pot

simplest rough way to work it out in heat of the moment

What about after the river ???

well then you have either hit your out or you haven't and you need to take a view whether your hand is best or not.


This, matt, is the notion of implied and more specfically reverse implied odds


cos of course I might hit my card and still lose!


Happy to help!

One day i'm going to learn all this - and your all going to be in big trouble!!!

for now i will just stick to pressing which ever button flashes most on t'internet..........

 rotflmfao rotflmfao rotflmfao

Class  :D

Wasn't he a King? 



lol  matt  :D

Wasn't he a King? 
[/quote]

yeah, he stopped some baby getting cut in half

I think he actually proposed cutting the baby in half, thus allowing the real mother to show herself by giving up the child rather than having it harmed.

David Solomon, US player invented the multiply by four calculate the odds rule, hence Solomon's rule

When I first get up in the morning, I can be grumpy, tetchy, obdurate, & difficult. I have just got up.

Surely he discovered the "rule", not invented it? It was always so, so I don't believe he invented it.

And where's my tea? (Just day-dreaming of what it must be like to be married).

Pedant


How many sugars do you take again darling?

Toast?

Steady on Tighty. Kev thinks a pedant is a walker. W-A-L-K-E-R I said.

yes i already knew this - he stopped the baby from getting cut in half when the real mother said "give the child to her she can have it" and solomon knew who the real mother was...

i was just relating the abridged shortened - the "shownonITV1withthebestbitstakenoutduetoadvertbreaksandstoppinghalfwaythroughduetonewsatten" version

I'm probably being thick here, but still don't really understand this.  Say I have 6 outs after the flop - I multiply that by 4 to give me 24.  How should I compare that to the required bet/pot size to decide what to do?  At a guess, does it mean I shouldn't call a bet that's more than that percentage of the pot?

If my understanding this is right if you have 6 outs then you have a 24% chance of winning the pot which is 4/1 so if your getting 4 x the money back from what it costs you to call then you should call the bet.

I hope that makes sense!

If you think you're chances of winning the pot are 24% then you will win the pot roughly one in every 4 attempts. Therefore you need to be getting pot odds of 3-1 to make the call justifyable. If there is 600 in the pot and its costing you 300 to call then you are only getting 2-1 and you are not getting the pot odds to call.

however just because you are not getting the correct pot odds doesnt necessarily mean you should fold. If its only costing you 300 to call into a pot of 600 and your opponent is all in and you can easily afford it as you are sat on a 10000 chip stack then it may be worth making it.

Sometimes as well in tournaments just because you are getting the correct pot odds to call doesnt necessarily make the call a correct one. If you are 20% to win a pot and you are getting 6-1 pot odds but making the call however puts your tournament life on the line you have to ask yourself "do i really want to be taking a chance for my tournament life where i will lose 4 out of 5 times"?

Thats' not my understanding - a 24% chance is (near enough) a 3/1 shot. But maybe I got it wrong. (One time I will win, three times I will lose).

I thought you never understood all this Monkey?

I'm not sure Tikay I just assumed that near 25% was a 4/1 chance but your explanation of how you would work it makes more sense!

This may help, an article I have in my documents......


Hand odds are the chances of you making a hand in texas hold'em poker. For example, if you hold two hearts and there are two hearts on the flop, your hand odds for making a flush are about 2 to 1. This means that for approximately every 3 times you play this hand, you will hit your flush one of those times. If your hand odds are 3 to 1, then you would hit your hand 1 out of every 4 times.

X to 1 odds = You hit your hand 1 out of (X + 1) times
X to 1 odds = 1 / (X + 1) = % chace to hit your hand

(Example: 3 to 1 odds = 1 / 4 = 25% chance to hit your hand)
Outs    Flop%    Turn%    Flop Odds    Turn Odds    Draw Type
2    8%    4%    12    22    Pocket Pair -> Set
3    13%    7%    7    14    Single Overcard Draw
4    17%    9%    5    10    Gut Shot, Two Pair -> Full House
5    20%    11%    4    8    One Pair -> Two Pair or Set, Gut+Backdoor
6    24%    13%    3.2    6.7    No Pair -> Pair, Two Overcard Draw
7    28%    15%    2.6    5.6    Set -> Full House or + (not counting extra turn outs)
8    32%    17%    2.2    4.7    Open Straight Draw
9    35%    19%    1.9    4.1    Flush Draw, Open+Backdoor Draw
10    38%    22%    1.6    3.6    
11    42%    24%    1.4    3.2    
12    45%    26%    1.2    2.8    Flush+Gut Draw
13    48%    28%    1.1    2.5    
14    51%    30%    0.95    2.3    
15    54%    33%    0.85    2.1    Flush+Open Draw
16    57%    34%    0.75    1.9    Flush+Open+One Overcard
17    60%    37%    0.66    1.7    
[ The above chart represents your percentage and odds of hitting an out by the river ]

To calculate your hand odds, you first need to know how many outs your hand has. Outs are defined as a card in the deck that help you make your hand. So if you hold AK of spades and have two spades on the flop, that leaves 9 more spades in the deck, since there are 13 cards of each suit. This means you have 9 outs to complete your flush - but not necessarily the best hand! Usually you want your outs to count toward a nut draw, but this is not always possible.

The quick amongst you might be wondering "But what if someone else is holding a spade, doesn't that decrease my outs?". The answer is yes and no. If you know for sure that someone else is holding a spade, then you will have to count that against your total odds. However, in most situations when you do not know what your opponents hold, you can only do calculations with the knowledge that is available to you. That knowledge is your pocket cards and the cards on the table. So, in essence, you are doing the calculations as if you were the only person at the table, which in case, there are 9 spades left in the deck.

When calculating outs, it's also important not to overcount your odds. An example would be a flush draw in addition to an open straight draw.

    Example: You hold Jd Td and the board shows 8d Qd Ks. A Nine or Ace gives you a straight (8 outs), while any diamond gives you the flush (9 outs). However, there is an Ace of diamonds and Nine of diamonds, so you don't want to count these twice toward your straight draw and flush draw. The true number of outs is actually 15 (8 outs + 9 outs - 2 outs) instead of 17 (8 outs + 9 outs)

In addition to this, sometimes an out for you really isn't a true out. An example would be chasing an open ended straight draw when two of another suit are on the table. In this regard, where you would normally have 8 total outs to hit your straight, 2 of those outs will result in three to a suit on the table. This makes a possible flush for your opponents. As a result, you really only have 6 outs for a nut straight draw. Another more complex situation is as follows:

    Example: You hold J8o and the flop comes 9TJ rainbow (all of a different suit). To make a straight, you need a Queen or 7 to drop, giving you 4 outs each or a total of 8 outs. But, you have to look at the situation if a Queen drops, because the board will then show 9TJQ. This means that anyone holding a King will have made a King high straight, while you hold the dominated Queen high straight.

    So, the only card that can really help you is the 7, which gives you 4 outs, or the equivalent of a gut shot draw. While it's true that someone might not be holding the King (especially in a short or heads-up game), in a big game, it's a very scary position to be in.

How to calculate hand odds (the longer way):

Once you know how to correctly count the number of outs you have on a hand, you can use that to calculate what percent of the time you will hit your hand by the river. Probability can be calculated easily for a single event, like the flipping of the River card from the Turn. This would simply be: Total Outs / Remaining Cards. For two cards however, like from the Flop to the River, it's a bit more tricky. This is calculated by figuring the probability of your cards not hitting twice in a row. This can be calculated as shown below:

Flop to River % = 1 - [ ((47 - Outs) / 47) * ((46 - Outs) / 46) ]
Turn to River % = 1 - [ (46 - Outs) / 46 ]

The number 47 represents the remaining cards left in the deck after the flop (52 total cards, minus 2 in our hand and 3 on the flop = 47 remaining cards). Even though there might not technically be 47 cards remaining, we do calculations assuming we are the only players in the game. To illustrate, here is a two overcard draw, which has 3 outs for each overcard, giving a total of 6 outs for a top pair draw:
Two Overcard Draw    = 1 - [ (47 - 6) / 47 * (46 - 6) / 46 ]
= 1 - [ (41/47) * (40/46) ]
= 1 - [ 0.87 * 0.87 ]
= 1 - 0.76
= 0.24
= 24% Chance to Draw Overcards from Flop to River

However, most of the time we want to see this in hand odds, which will be explained after you read about pot odds. To change a percent to odds, the formula is:

Odds = ( 1 / Percentage ) - 1

Thus, to change the 24% draw into an odd we can use, we do the following:
Odds    = ( 1 / 24% Two Overcard Draw ) - 1
= ( 1 / 0.24 ) - 1
= 4.17 - 1
= 3.17 or approx 3.2
How to calculate hand odds (the shorter way):

Now that you've learned the proper way of calculating hand odds in texas hold'em, there is a shortcut that will makes it much easier to calculate odds. The shortcut is, after you find the number of outs you have, multiply by 4 and you will get a close estimate to the percentage of hitting that hand from the Flop. Multiply by 2 instead to get a percentage estimate from the Turn. You can see these figures for yourself below:
Sample Outs and Percentages from Above Chart
4    17%    9%    5    10    Gut Shot, Two Pair -> Full House
5    20%    11%    4    8    One Pair -> Two Pair or Set, Gut+Backdoor
6    24%    13%    3.2    6.7    Two Overcard Draw, Open Straight w/Flush Threat
7    28%    15%    2.6    5.6    Set -> Full House

As you can see, this is a much easier method of finding your percentage odds. But what about ratio odds? This is still done using the formula:

Odds = ( 1 / Percentage ) - 1

However, we can rephrase this math equation so that your brain might process it a bit easier:

Odds = (100 / Whole Percentage) - 1

Using 100 divided by the whole percentage number, such as 24%, we can easily see that 100/24 is equal to about 4. We minus 1 from that and get a rough estimate of our odds at about 3:1. Let's try this all the way through with an example:

You hold: Ac Js
Flop is: 5c Td Kd

Total Outs: Queen Gut Shot (4) + Ace Overcard (3) - Q or A Diamond (2) = 5

Percentage for Draw = 5 Outs * 4 = 20%

Odds = (100 / 20) - 1
     = 5 - 1
     = 4:1

Again, 4:1 odds means that you will make your draw 1 out of every 5 times. If the 1 out of 5 doesn't make a ton of sense to you, think about the 1:1 odds of flipping heads or tails on a coin. You'll flip heads 50% of the time, so 1 out of every 2 times it'll come heads.

X:1 Hand Odds = You'll hit 1 out of every X+1 times
Pot Odds and Poker Odds:

Now that you know how to calculate poker odds in terms of hand odds, you're probably wondering what you're going to need it for? That's a good question. This is where pot odds come into play.

Pot odds is simply a ratio of the amount of money in the pot compared with how much money it takes to call. If there is $100 in the pot and it takes $10 to call, your pot odds are 100:10, or 10:1. If there is $50 in the pot and it takes $10 to call, then your pot odds are 50:10 or 5:1. The higher the ratio, the better your pot odds are.

X:1 Pot Odds = You must win this hand 1 out of X+1 times to break even

Pot odds ratios are a very useful tool to see how often you need to win the hand to break even. If there is $100 in the pot and it takes $10 to call, you must win this hand 1 out of 11 times in order to break even. The thinking goes along the lines of: If you play 11 times, it'll cost you $110, but when you win, you get $110 ($100 + your $10 call).

The usefulness of hand odds and pot odds becomes very apparent when you start comparing the two. As we know now, in a flush draw, your hand odds for making your flush are 1.9 to 1. Let's say you're in a hand with a nut flush draw and it's $5 to you on the flop to call. Do you call? Your answer should be: What are my pot odds?

If there is $15 in the pot plus a $5 bet from an opponent, then you are getting 20:5 or 4:1 pot odds. This means that in order to break even, you must win 1 out of every 5 times. However, with your flush draw, your odds of winning are 1 out of every 3 times! You should quickly realize that not only are you breaking even, but you're making a nice profit on this too. Let's calculate the profit margin on this by theoretically playing this hand 100 times from the flop, when is then checked to the river.

Net Cost to Play = 100 hands * $5 to call = -$500
Pot Value = $15 + $5 bet + $5 call

Odds to Win = 1.9:1 or 35% (From the flop)
Total Hands Won = 100 * Odds to Win (35%) = 35 wins

Net Profit = Net Cost to Play + (Total Times Won * Pot Value)
           = -$500 + (35 * $25)
           = -$500 + $875
           = $375 Profit

As you can see, you have a great reason to play this flush draw, because you'll be making money in the long run according to your hand odds and pot odds. The most fundamental point to take from this is:

If your Pot Odds > Hand Odds, then you are making a profit

So, even though you may be faced with a gut shot straight draw at times, which is a terrible draw at 5 to 1 hand odds, it can be worth it to call if you are getting pot odds greater than 5 to 1. Othertimes, if you have an excellent draw such as the flush draw, but someone has just raised a large amount so your pot odds are 1:1 for instance, then you obviously should not continue trying to draw to a flush, as you will lose money in the long run. In this situation, a fold or semi-bluff is your only solution, unless you know there will be callers behind you that improve your pot odds to better than break even.

Your ability to memorize or calculate your hand odds and figure out your pot odds will lead you to make many of the right decisions in the future. Just be sure to remember that fundamental principle of playing drawing hands when your pot odds are greater than your hand odds.
Poker Odds from the Flop to Turn and Turn to River

An important note I have to make is that many players who understand Hold'em odds tend to forget is that much of the theoretical odds calculations from the flop to the river assume there is no betting on the turn. So while it's true that for a flush draw, the odds are 1.9 to 1 that the flush will complete, you can only call a 1.9 to 1 pot on the flop if your opponent will let you see both the turn and river cards for one call. Unfortunately, most of the time, this will not be the case, so you should not calculate pot odds from the flop to the river and instead calculate them one card at a time.

To calculate your odds one card at a time, simply use the same odds that you have going from the turn to the river. So for example, your odds of hitting a flush from the turn to river is 4 to 1, which means your odds of hitting a flush from the flop to the turn is 4 to 1 as well.

To help illustrate even further, we will use the flush calculation example that shows the often incorrect way of thinking.

Example of Incorrect Pot Odds Math
You Hold: Flush Draw
Flop: $10 Pot + $10 Bet
You Call: $10 (getting 2 to 1 odds)

Turn: $30 Pot + $10 Bet
You Call: $10 (getting 4 to 1 odds)

Long-Term Results Over 100 Hands
Cost to Play = 100 Hands * ($10 Flop Call + $10 Turn Call) = $2,000
Total Won = 100 Hands * 35% Chance to Win * $50 Pot = $1,750

Total Net = $1,750 (Won) - $2,000 (Cost)
           = -$250 Profit
           = -$2.5/Hand


Example of Correct Pot Odds Math
You Hold: Flush Draw
Flop: $30 Pot + $10 Bet
You Call: $10 (getting 4 to 1 odds)

Turn: $50 Pot + $16 Bet
You Call: $16 (getting about 4 to 1 odds)

Long-Term Results Over 100 Hands
Cost to Play = 100 Hands * ($10 Flop Call + $16 Turn Call) = $2,600
Total Won = 100 Hands * 35% Chance to Win * $82 Pot = $2,870

Total Net = $2,870 (Won) - $2,600 (Cost)
          = $270 Profit
          = $2.7/Hand

As you can see from these example calculations, calling a flush draw with 2 to 1 pot odds on the flop can lead to a long term loss, if there is additional betting past the flop. Most of the time however, there is a concept called Implied Value (which we'll get to next) that is able to help flush draws and open-ended straight draws still remain profitable even with seemingly 'bad' odds. The draws that you want to worry about the most are your long shot draws: overcards, gutshots and two outers (hoping to make a set with your pocket pair). If you draw these hands using incorrect odds (such as flop to river odds), you will be severely punished in the long run.
Implied Value

Implied Value is a pretty cool concept that takes into account future betting. Like the above section, where you have to worry about your opponent betting on the turn, implied value most often is used to anticipate your opponent calling on the river. So for example, let's say you have yet another flush draw and are being offered a 3 to 1 pot odds on the turn. Knowing that you need 4 to 1 pot odds to make this a profitable call, you decide to fold.

Aha, but wait! Here is where implied value comes into play. So, even though you're getting 3 to 1 pot odds on the turn, you can likely anticipate your opponent calling you on the river if you do hit your flush draw. This means that even though you're only getting 3 to 1 pot odds, since you anticipate your opponent calling a bet on the river, you are anticipating 4 to 1 pot odds - so you are able to make this call on the turn.

So in the most practical standpoint, implied value usually means that you can minus one bet off your drawing odds on the turn, as it anticipate your opponents calling at least one bet. In some more advanced areas, you can use implied odds as a means of making some draws that might not be profitable for a majority of the time, but stand to make big payouts when they do hit. Some examples of this would be having a tight image and drawing to a gutshot vs another tight player. Even though this is a horribly bad play (and hopefully you don't have to pay much for it), it can possibly be a positive play if you know your opponent will pay you off if you hit your draw - namely because he won't believe you played a gutshot draw. For many reasons, I do not recommend fancy implied odds plays like these, but mentioned it more so that you can recognize some players who pull these 'tricky' plays on you as well.

Conclusion - Poker Odds

Knowing how to figure your odds in texas hold'em is going to be one of the most fundamental points in becoming a solid poker player. If this poker odds page was a bit difficult to understand, don't worry. Keep playing, bookmark this page and come back when you need another touch up reminder on how to properly apply odds. It takes awhile to learn how to do them properly and to memorize them as well.

IN tournaments i dont really calculate pot odds, i play more on feel. The only caluculation i usually have to make is when ive raised with a marginal/rubbish hand and a Short stack moves in and if i m priced in to call or not

Thats the way I tend to play most times.

I think if it feels right then it normally is.  But I think its good to have another dimention to your game when you can calculate if its worth making a call.  Or even if its worth raising - but again you can raise with a marginal hand on the basis that your not going to get called either due to image or your oppos style of play.

Lucky guess?  :dontask:

badpab has it right. There is MUCH more to it than just undestanding the odds. Just because the odds are right or wrong is not the sole criteria. There are dozens of others.

Completely agree TK but there are so many variables in poker that things that you can know you should as this form a solid foundation for your game.

Yup - feed all the variables into your mind, mix them all up, digest, & decide. But never take any one in isolation - it will invariably be wrong.

The best way i was ever shown to calculate was as follows:

WITH TURN + RIVER TO COME, for your first ten outs you have a 4% chance for each, for every out after 10, then you have 2.3% chance each.

So for 9 outs you are 36% (9 lots of 4%) - typical flush draw odds, always good value with 2 others in the pot.
for 13 outs you are 46.9% (10 lots of 4% plus 3 lots of 2.3%)

WITH RIVER TO COME, you have 2.3% chance for each out.

so 9 outs would be 20.7% = flush draw odds on river

The actual exact odds can vary 1-2% dependent on the cards, however after checking many scenarios, i have always found this method to be very good. Its never exact much like when we say AK vs QQ is 50/50, it isn't really, however the actual odds are very close so we just accept it.

In all honesty once you have played for sometime, these odds become natural and you don't need to calculate, you just know. Best way of explaining this would be - if there are any of you out there who are good at your 12 times table, if someone asks you a sum such as 9x8, you do not calculate this to answer, you just know it due the amount of time you have worked it out in the past.

So 3 things to remember 4%, 2.3% and 10 outs as the limit for 4% chance.

Turn and river = 4% for first ten outs + 2.3% for everyone after
River = 2.3% for each

 OMG!!  badpab2,.........you play that well without calculating pot odds??!!......PLEASE dont bother ;D

Its not that i dont calculate when the situation requires, but in tournament poker there isnt many instances im gonna be calling to hit a hand so pot odds dont really come into the equation. Draws are death in no limit becase if you miss on the turn you probably will have wasted those chips because it will now become too expensive to see the river. If I pick up a draw and sense my opponent is weak im a lot more likey to move in, cos if you are correct he will fold or may fold top pair marginal kicker etc... or if you do get called you ge to see both cards to try and make your draw. If you feel your oppenent is strong just fold the draw its not worth it.

I agree with badpab here, draws in NL burn chips.

Pass, or move in. Calling is a bad thing. (imo).

Someone also mentioned that AK v Underpair is "roughly" 50-50.

I pass on this, without comment really, & it came from ol el blondie himself, when he gave the blonde Masteclass a few weeks back.

AK is NOT roughly 50-50 at ALL with an underpair, it's much, much, better, he calculated it at around 75-25 to 80-20.

He got severely questioined about that very obvious miscalculation. His reply was that AK, if played strongly, (via a R or RR) gets a LOT of peeps to pass their underpairs. So it's not 50/50 at all, it's a lot better. He reckoned it was 75-25 or better. Course, there are situations when the underpair cannot or will not pass, for a wide range of reasons. (Won't put QQ down, has too few chips to pass, wants to gamble). Therse should be factored in when R-ing or RR-ing with AK.

Just telling you his view!

For the reasons Pab states, calculating the odds on the flop (outs x 4) can get expensive when you miss on the turn.

You have to remember that you only get 4% / out if you see BOTH the turn & river cards... so if deciding whether to get into an 'All-In' situation then it is a useful calculation.

If just deciding whether to call a bet , then I think it is best to treat the odds on the turn and the river seperately... ie. 2% / out to hit ON the turn and then 2% / out to hit ON the river.

If you have 9 outs on the turn (appx 20% or 4/1) AND you are fairly sure you are drawing to the nuts and calling a bet on the turn offers favourable pot odds ie. >4/1, then for me it's a call.

If the turn misses, then it is the same calculation... if the other player/s make the 'mistake' of allowing me better than 4/1 pot odds to see the river then I'll usually see it.