blonde poker forum

hi all

i have now started to get to the final table alot now and i have a little problem i am useless heads up look 4 some advice or a boook to recomend to me or a web link

cheers all

Heads up isn't my forte as I never get into that position.  :)

Harrington might know a bit about it. There's a chapter in his 2nd book on heads-up.

Personally, I think the most important thing is not to be passive. Try and push the other guy around and see if he plays back at you. If he has to have good cards to play, then he's playing a weak heads up game.

Get on the sng's and practice practice practice.

Someone sent this to me a while ago. it's pretty heavy going and i'm not saying any one should follow it precisely but there is a lot of good containted within.

Single Table Tournament Overview
Most people who are solid single table tournament (STT) players already know that the game is really composed of three parts: early game, late game and heads-up. Each stage is generally very straightforward, with very tight early game play, followed by aggressive late game play, then culminating into a heads-up game (usually aggressive as well).

As many solid players know as well, the majority of the chips are going to be won during the late game phase, where blind stealing and coin flips is pretty much the norm. While you can accumulate a stack early game, it often involves hitting a monster and having a loose player pay you off. Because of this, I would say that late game, including heads-up play accounts for 80% of how well you do in STT games, with the early game only accounting for 20% of your game.

When most players mention their STT ROI, it generally ranges from 50% (lower buy-in games) to 20% (higher buy-ins). So, if there is a late game tactic that could increase your late game by 10%, this would be be the equivalent of a 8% increase in your ROI, a rather large sum. I think this theorem of blind stealing can improve your late game along these numbers (depending on your existing skill level), so it is a very deadly weapon.

Blind Stealing and Folding Equity
Folding Equity is a term used to indicate the value of a play based on the chance that your opponent will fold. Blind stealing and folding equity are often used in conjuction, because blind stealing is all about picking up the blinds by forcing your opponents to fold.

Here is a table that I have constructed that shows what different types of players are willing to call a pre-flop raise with late game:

Table #1 - Preflop Decision Chart
AA KK QQ JJ TT 99 88 77 66 55 44 33 22
AK KQ QJ JT T9 98 87 76 65 54 43 32 
AQ KJ QT J9 T8 97 86 75 64 53 42   
AJ KT Q9 J8 T7 96 85 74 63 52   
AT K9 Q8 J7 T6 95 84 73 62     
A9 K8 Q7 J6 T5 94 83 72     
A8 K7 Q6 J5 T4 93 82       
A7 K6 Q5 J4 T3 92       
A6 K5 Q4 J3 T2         
A5 K4 Q3 J2         
A4 K3 Q2           
A3 K2           
A2             
 Player Type Hands Played % Played
Very Tight 56 of 1326 5%
Tight 194 of 1326 15%
Semi-Tight 366 of 1326 28%
Loose 846 of 1326 64%
 

Now, take a look at the upper-right table, where it shows the percentage of hands played by each player type. This number can be used as a quantitative figure to figure out the folding equity of stealing from this type of player. The following table will illustrate how the calculation of folding equity works. This chart assumes that you are in the small blind, attempting to steal the big blind.

Table #2 - Folding Equity
Player Type Blinds Raise Amt Fold % Fold Equity Caught % Chips Caught Min Profit
Very Tight 1.5 BB 3 BB 95% 1.4 BB 5% 0.2 BB 1.2 BB
Tight 1.5 BB 3 BB 85% 1.3 BB 15% 0.5 BB 0.8 BB
Semi-Tight 1.5 BB 3 BB 72% 1.1 BB 28% 0.9 BB 0.2 BB
Loose 1.5 BB 3 BB 36% 0.5 BB 64% 1.9 BB -1.4 BB

From a very quick skim, we can see here that it's worth it pre-flop raise any tight player with any hand based solely on folding equity. The reason is that even if you lose every single hand that you are called or raised on, you will still make a profit. The reason you will make a profit, as the chart shows, is simply because the very tight and tight players will give up their blinds much more than they are willing to defend it. If you raise by 3BB, you have a guaranteed profit if they are defending less than a third of their hands

Another important thing that we see here, is that our minimum profit drops significantly starting with semi-tight players, because they are actually calling or raising enough raises that it offsets the amount you are making from pure steals. Does this mean we shouldn't raise against looser players? Not necessarily, as it only means that we are break even at worst. To determine if we should raise, we need to examine how well our 'caught chips' fare.

Caught on the Blind Steal
In the chart, I had a column titled 'caught'. Caught is which is what I refer to as chips that have been called or raised in a blind steal attempt. Let make up a scenario and say that your opponent has 10BB in chips and re-raises all-in on your steal. It takes 7BB for you to call, while the pot is at 14.5BB, which gives you 2.1:1 pot odds.

For those of you who know your odds, you will know that 2.1:1 pot odds is almost always good enough to call. In the chart below, I've illustrated how a completely random hand stacks up in this scenario, if you call the re-raise.

Table #3 - Caught Equity
Player Type Win % Odds to Win Pot Odds Avg Win Call Cost Total Cost Call Equity Caught Equity
Very Tight 29% 2.5 to 1 2.1 to 1 6.2 BB 7 BB 10 BB -0.8 BB -3.8 BB
Tight 35% 1.9 to 1 2.1 to 1 7.5 BB 7 BB 10 BB 0.5 BB -2.5 BB
Semi-Tight 38% 1.6 to 1 2.1 to 1 8.2 BB 7 BB 10 BB 1.2 BB -1.8 BB
Loose 45% 1.2 to 1 2.1 to 1 9.7 BB 7 BB 10 BB 2.7 BB -0.3 BB

The call equity shows that if we go on a blind steal by raising 3BB with any hand, we can call any re-raise up to 10BB (and in reality, up to about 13BB), with the exception of a re-raise from a very tight player. For those of you who have read about the concept of pushing all-in when you have 10BB or less, you can see the exact math here for why this is the case, as you have pot odds to call most players after already committing 3BB into the pot.

The caught equity column shows the actual equity of our play, since in reality, we put 10BB into the pot instead of 7 BB. The data also shows that when we do get called, it is a negative -EV play. However, what we really want to know is if our folding equity can offset our losses by being caught.

Combining Folding Equity with Caught Equity
If we apply what we just learned from Table #3, we can figure out that if we have 10BB or less or our opponents have 10BB or less, we might as well push all-in since we would be correct to call any re-raise after putting 3BB into the pot. Not only is this correct in terms of pot odds, but it also increases our folding equity, since most players are more reluctant to call all-in as opposed to calling two more big bets.

So, in Table #4, we will assume this type of push situation and see what numbers we get.

Table #4 - Fold Equity and Caught Equity
Type Blinds Fold % Fold Equity Caught % Caught Equity Caught Result Total Equity
Very Tight 1.5 BB 95% 1.4 BB 5% -3.8 BB -0.2 BB 1.2 BB
Tight 1.5 BB 85% 1.3 BB 15% -2.5 BB -0.4 BB 0.9 BB
Semi-Tight 1.5 BB 72% 1.1 BB 28% -1.8 BB -0.5 BB 0.6 BB
Loose 1.5 BB 36% 0.5 BB 64% -0.3 BB -0.2 BB 0.3 BB

Table 4 can be a little bit confusing, so I will show a calculation below on how Total Equity is calculated from the beginning. In this example, we're going to assume that we are playing against a Semi-Tight opponent raising all-in with 10BB:

Fold Equity   = Blinds * Fold%
              = 1.5 BB * 72%
              = 1.1 BB

Caught Equity = (Win% * Pot) - Total Cost to Play
              = (38% * 21.5 BB) - 10 BB
              = 8.2 BB - 10 BB
              = -1.8 BB

Caught Result = Caught% * Caught Equity
              = 28% * -1.8 BB
              = -0.5 BB

Total Equity  = Fold Equity + Caught Profit
              = 1.1 BB - 0.5 BB
              = 0.6 BB


Though I'll admit my explanations so far have been a little dense, upon seeing the Total Equity column, there should be a spark of light among many of you reading and interpreting that data. The data shows that a random pre-flop hand raising 10BB to steal the BB from the SB, will always generate positive long term equity. In English, this means you can always push any two cards when you or the BB has less than 10BB (and if you look ahead, 13BB).

Raise Range on Blind Steals
Since we're all about finding razor edges in any situation, we can also look at how increasing our pre-flop raises affects our overall equity in these steal situations.

Table #5 - Total Equity and Raise Amount
Type 8 BB 9 BB 10 BB 11 BB 12 BB 13 BB 14 BB 15 BB
Very Tight 1.3 BB 1.3 BB 1.2 BB 1.2 BB 1.2 BB 1.2 BB 1.2 BB 1.1 BB
Tight 1.0 BB 0.9 BB 0.9 BB 0.9 BB 0.8 BB 0.8 BB 0.7 BB 0.7 BB
Semi-Tight 0.7 BB 0.6 BB 0.6 BB 0.5 BB 0.4 BB 0.4 BB 0.3 BB 0.2 BB
Loose 0.5 BB 0.4 BB 0.3 BB 0.3 BB 0.2 BB 0.1 BB 0.1 BB 0.0 BB

Intuition should give us the same conclusion as the data, which is that as you increase the value of your raise pre-flop, your overall equity goes down. The important thing to note is that equity is positive across the board for all player types, but begins dipping the most after about 10BB.

A good side-effect that may occur from raising over 10BB pre-flop however, is that your opponent is most likely going to tighten his calling requirements in order to call your raise. This would mean that most players will probably go up in level, so a semi-tight player would only call tight hands, and a tight player would only call very-tight hands. The effect of this of course, is that it improves your folding equity and thus, your overall equity as well.

The Effect of Variance
One thing about applying this theorem is that you will experience much greater variance than you are probably accustomed to. For the solid players, this should not be an issue. For players who multi-table, this strategy is extremely useful, as multi-tablers are already accustomed to variance, but essentially provides a logic for auto-playing steals in certain situations.

I will repeat once again that variance will naturally be very high with this type of strategy. Your opponents will think you are a maniac or a fish. Solid players will question your logic. You yourself may question the play after pushing dominated hands time and time again. If this is not acceptable to you, then you should not play with this strategy.

Strategic Adjustments to Stealing
As mentioned earlier, if you are caught and survive on a push, your opponents will most likely view you as a complete maniac - and quite likely lower their calling requirements for you. This doesn't matter however. You can see that even if they loosen up their requirements, you still have positive EV on them when stealing. The worst they can do is lower your EV, but even then can never make it go negative (unless you are raising over 14BB).

If you are seen as a maniac, you can exploit your own imagine to an absolute advantage over your opponents. For instance, you are playing this strategy and pushing everytime you or the BB has 10BB or less. When you finally accumulate up to 13BB, you decide to slow down and play normally again. Upon getting a strong hand such as KK, you then push in any position. Your opponents who have seen you push with rags will not give you any respect and are much more likely to call your overbet.

Another adjustment to make, is to pre-flop raise 3BB when you hold a monster. The BB who is sick of your all-in raises will likely see this smaller raise as a weak play and come back at you, which in case you can then call and likely dominate his hand. A 3BB bet can also be used against very tight players, as it still retains a high degree of folding equity and minimizes your loss when you are re-raised by them, as you are fairly certain to be dominated.

Independent Chip Modeling
Personally, I don't put a lot of value into ICM, but regardless of what I think, it's good to know. In short, ICM is the concept of putting a real dollar value on your current stack, relative to your opponents and the total payout in the tournament.ICM is an important early on (and even in mid-stages) of a tournament because it dictates that you shouldn't make any extreme or risky plays to win a few chips, when you aren't getting a true money return on your play.

For example, if you have pocket Tens and someone who you absolutely *know* has AK pushes all-in early game, ICM dictates that you should not call this bet. In the beginning game, your stack in dollar amounts is worth your buy-in. However, if you double up, your stack is only worth 184% of your buy-in (according to ICM). So, while TT has about a 5% edge over AK, ICM actually states that by calling, you are risking more "real money" than you are winning with your edge (as opposed to just tournament chips). As such, ICM dictates that you shouldn't call with small edges.

ICM applies to the theorem of blind stealing, because from reading this article, you may get the idea to push in every single situation where you are heads-up with the BB. This will be incorrect at times however, because you don't always want to risk many chips - especially early game. In a late game situation, my feeling is that aggression is far more rewarded than timid play, so ICM does not play as big a role. So, the general rule of thumb is - don't start stealing until the blinds are at least 50/100.

If you want to explore ICM more, here is an ICM calculator.

Heads-up Play
The writing is on the wall, so I'll let you figure this one out...

Defending against this strategy
If you understand all of the math involved, you will understand that there is no way of truly defending against this tactic. If you are on the BB and your opponent raises on every hand, your only option is to gamble with him and call every hand that he raises as well. This is actually an +EV play for the both of you, since the blinds are 'dead money' and you are both eventually splitting them.

The only real defense that you can mount, is reducing the amount of total equity that the attacker can obtain, by widening your push hands substantially to defend against steals. If you increased your range of hands to a set such as all pocket pairs, Ace/x, King/x, Queen/7+, Jack/7+ and Ten/7+ - you can effectively reduce your attacker's total equity to 0.4BB. This would be the equivalent of letting them keep their SB and you keeping your BB.

Conclusion
Hopefully (or not if you play at my tables) this article will have made something click inside your head. Because if it did, you can see how extremely effective this strategy is to use in any tournament situation, but especially Party Poker STT games. In the Party Poker $30+3 games for example, with starting chips of 800 per person, mathematical strategy can and will completely take over the end game. This is one of the reasons that any of the Party Poker STT games can be crushed by anyone who knows what they are doing.

Anyhow, I regard this as a big trick being let out of the bag. If it turns your game around, I'd always like to hear it on the forums. Good luck - although it's not really luck.

Conclusion - Part Deux (Added: 10/24/04)
There has been a number of analysis and discussions as a result of the article which you should read in this 2+2 thread. I have put my own replies in there as well, but there are a number of interesting points to read. The foremost is that the article did not emphasize enough that the averaged EV of random hands will be profitable over the long term, but any particular hand may not necessarily be profitble. An example is 23o, one of the worst hands in poker, would not be +EV in many situations, because it simply fares very badly vs any hand. This can apply to other rag hands as well.

The conclusion to draw from this, is that against players who are more apt to call your all-in bet, you should be more discriminate in the hands you will be pushing with. If they're loose enough to call you with 64% of their cards, you can wait for a good hand, then punish them for calling you when you have them dominated.

Crickey. Thanks for that. I cut & pasted that to printout and read during a quiet "moment" at work tomorrow, 5 pages. That was not a "post" it was a thesis.

it's a breeze for a man of your talents ;D

You saying I've got wind?

a little hot air maybe

That's my job  :D

Sorry, I don't have the inclination to read all that, but my advice if you are struggling to win h/u, (assuming the blinds in relation to your stack are large) then get em in with atc and just keep getting em in first. This hyper aggressive pitch won't give you a great ratio of wins but it will improve a serial second placer and show you the merits of sometimes just getting em in first with junk!

the thesis is along the same lines. But not as aggressive as all in everytime. There's a bit of strategy to giving yourself a mathmatical edge. It's fun when you have read and understand it and spot someone doing it to you. ;D

I may well have done it to you a few times if your name is the same as your moniker on will hill?

But also with heads up play, you can't wait for decent cards and shove it all in and hope. 
Why risk your stack??  Its more about testing the ground and tickling :)

Heads up is more of reading your opponent and if you hit a pair on the flop then go for it.  If you have a pair in the hole, depending on how big your pair is, depends on if you're gonna slow play it a tiny bit or stick in your chips but watch out for not getting outdrawn by not betting enough to push off a person with bottom pair

Heads up is my fav part,  superbitch in gear :)

@ace2mouth; quite possibly! What is your username on crypto?

@Londonpokergirl; I think we are talking about two totally different animals here. Your style of heads up has merit, but it depends on the tournament structure and the level of blinds. I think the poster is a serial 2nd placer and just needs to get aggressive. I also assume that we are talking on-line SnG's where the blinds in relation to your stack, are so large that you can't really hang around waiting for a monster. Waiting for the flop is also an unusual experience as often they are all in preflop at this stage and on this format. The only exception is the sixpaks, where you can be heads up at an early stage sometimes and the blinds are still small enough to play correctly.

Basically if you use this method on stt's you will show a consistently higher than average profit when heads up. (that's the theory anyway and it works for me).

I do not employ the strategy when heads up in mtt's as i think i can be a bit more creative and win through different strategies. But i am heads up so often on stt's this allows me to relax and know that i am playing with an edge without having to get mentally involved. You know how it is 3 games on the go, footie on the TV and the mrs whinging..... I can't give my full attetion all the time.

So what is your WH username tehn A2M?

Tommyk1. ???

I'm the one ranting at the idiot who just called and hit his gutshot.

I haven't been playing to much recently on will hill, i have discovered the party poker sng pay days.

no iam a live player who has a v.good final table apperance for this year alone i have made it on average 5 out of 7 times and when i get to the final table  can play both a big stack and a small stack well.

but my problem is i get heads up even with a big chip lead and come second more then i should.

for this year i have been heads up 22 times, 14 times a 50% chip lead or more, and only won 3 times simple maths say i am not playing heads up at all well.

the problem is now iam still aggresive but playing nervous and paying players off when they get a hand.

thats why i needs advice.

If you're playing a live tourney and have more chips, then offer the player a deal in your favour,  maybe easier in the short term until you feel more confident, then you're guaranteed 1st place and don'thave to play the heads up part of it

Heads up online you do get play in tournaments, just that a lot of people tend to want to not play flops and stick their chips in before it gets to that stage.   I'm the one who will wait and make the other person play heads up then turn the situation around and take them down.

You have to have the ability to adapt your HU game to your opponent. I think the tempo of a HU match is often decided in the first 4 or 5 hands. both player try to take the initiative and be the aggressor and one will usually have to back down. if that happens the one who backed off has to play a check raise / trapping style. when two players refuse to back off and both insist on being the aggressor it's gonna be a short match. I remember watching Devil Fish and Don O'Dea Hu a couple of years ago hand for hand on TV. Devilfish was alwayd gonna be the aggressor but O'Dea had the chips to weather the storm and made devilfish pay in the big hands so it was 10 small steps forward, 1 giant leap back.

Just mentally accept 2nd prize and experiment. try letting your opponent take the lead and other times try insisting on being the most aggressive, regardless of hands.

thanks all 4 yr advice not helped much just to let u know last night i got heads up again at my local card room and took a deal of 50/50 saved a lot of bother and stress i dont like doing this as i feel i need to improve this part of my game as it feels like it is one of my only weak parts of my game.

I think you need to adjust your style to the type of player you are playing..

I regularly play $10 and $20 headsup matches on betfred.. won a couple of freerolls so thought id use the cash to experiment with this side of the game..

I first i was usually losing but now usually win probably 75% of the time which iim pretty happy with..

Generally i like to try and grind my opponent down rather than play big pots, i always like to start off aggressive, but if im up agst someone i perceive to be trying to play similar then i like to try and trap them.... key is like for all tournaments to vary your play and keep your opponents guessing..