blonde poker forum

Multi-Table Tournament
Table Name Hand ID Game Stakes
MTT Table 1 9218174-104 Holdem No Limit 300/600
[May 18 23:30:34] : Hand Start.
[May 18 23:30:34] : Seat 1 : acesdraw7 has $27,310
[May 18 23:30:34] : Seat 2 : tennis jim has $19,670
[May 18 23:30:34] : Seat 3 : Flush Royal has $14,150
[May 18 23:30:34] : Seat 4 : maddieann has $3,630
[May 18 23:30:34] : Seat 5 : orwellrules has $14,180
[May 18 23:30:34] : Seat 6 : shipcheez has $14,175
[May 18 23:30:34] : Seat 7 : neckbroke has $14,655
[May 18 23:30:34] : Seat 8 : downandout2 has $16,060
[May 18 23:30:34] : Seat 9 : umustbeatme has $16,010
[May 18 23:30:34] : tennis jim is the dealer.
[May 18 23:30:34] : Flush Royal posted small blind.
[May 18 23:30:34] : maddieann posted big blind.
[May 18 23:30:34] : Game [104] started with 9 players.
[May 18 23:30:34] : Dealing Hole Cards.
[May 18 23:30:34] : Seat 3 : Flush Royal has Ac Qs
[May 18 23:30:38] : orwellrules folded.
[May 18 23:30:39] : shipcheez folded.
[May 18 23:30:43] : neckbroke called 600
[May 18 23:30:44] : downandout2 folded.
[May 18 23:30:48] : umustbeatme called 600 and raised 2,400
[May 18 23:30:54] : acesdraw7 folded.
[May 18 23:30:54] : tennis jim folded.
[May 18 23:31:03] : Flush Royal called 2,700
[May 18 23:31:04] : maddieann folded.
[May 18 23:31:09] : neckbroke called 2,400 and raised 11,655 and is All-in
[May 18 23:31:19] : umustbeatme folded.

Whats the play?

pass -

i fold too

I don't like the initial flat call.  I'd probably fold to the all in as well.

I called because i had reverse position in a decent sized pot.

Pass, the only hands you can hope he might have are JJ or TT.

I am suprised no-one has said call, what do you all think he has got?

Call Flushy, he has a small pair and is making a sandwich play.

exactly what i read. I called and he actually had Kc JC which knocked me out. How do you rate his play? I think it was quite good as a lot of people clearly pass AQ to him.

Even if he is making a play like this with a small pair you still call and put your tournament life on the line with a hand that will lose more often that it will win?

Personally i think thats a bad call - you are calling and hoping that you are a slight underdog. If you make 3 calls like this during a tournament where you are putting your tournament life on the line as a slight underdog then the chances of you still being in the tournament after the third hand is approx 10%, you will have been eliminated from the tournament 9 times out of 10 just on those three hands alone. AND THAT IS THE BEST CASE SENARIO!!

If your opponent has AK, KK or QQ you are a 3-1 underdog and if he has AA you are more than a 9-1 underdog and your chances of still being in the tournament go from 10% to virtually none.

If you pass you still have over $11k in chips which is more than enough to rebuild, there will be much better opportunites to get your chips in with a hand that is a favourite!!

I think the call reraise all in manouvre is a good one and it is one i have used in the past many times myself - however in this situation i feel it is not a good one. To make a move like this you have to know and be 100% certain that your opponents are capable of laying down good hands.

The initial pre-flop raiser has to be wary that someone has limped UTG and therefore there is a possibility that they are limping with a monster hand, it may well be however that they are limping with a marginal hand trying to make it look like they are sat on a monster hand. He has chosen to raise but the thing that would set an alarm ringing in my head is that the pre-flop raise has then been flat called by someone out of position.

For someone to call a preflop raise out of position for about one fifth of their stack then you have to believe they have a better than average hand and its then at this point that you know that your KJ o/s is behind to at least one of the two hands. Its now you have to decide whether your opponents are capable of laying down good hands.

If you cannot say for definate in both instances "yes" then the all in reraise is a bad move as it is likely that you will get called. You are commiting your whole stack as an underdog when you only had about 5% of your stack invested in the pot in the first place.

<post edit comments: i'd also add that this move has more chance of success during a live tournemant than an online tournament as in general players are more likely to call online>

I don't like the call for 2700 and I like the all in call even less. Tbh limp then all in smells of something much bigger than KJ, but that doesnt make it a good play by him.

Yes you had reverse position, but are you leading out on an Ace flop? If your plan is to hit the Q then there is not an awful lot of difference between playing AQ and Ax and hoping x is the top card on the flop. The worst thing about AQ is that it plays poorly against AK. With position I would have called/pushed, but from the small blind I pass to the first raise.

I fundamentaly disagree with just about everything here, yet you have won zillions more than me playing MTTs so whadda I know???

Just because you are a dog in a hand doesn't mean it's a -EV play. Many experts say you want to be taking the vast majority if not all of your +EV opportunity's especially early in a tourney. That makes sense to me but I've seen a few posts by you that seem to be saying the complete opposite. I guess there's more than one way to skin a cat. It's an interesting thing to think about.

I never said that it was a -EV play but sometimes in tournament poker just because something has a +EV doesnt necessarily make it the correct play. If by making the call in this instance means that you are missing out on possibly making a move with a higher +EV later on then the move may not be correct.

Say for instance you knew that within the next round or so you were going to get dealt AK vs your opponents AQ (who say for instance is the chip leader at the table), you have two choices. You can make the call in the first instance with the AQ and hope that you are a slight underdog (though you may well be a 3-1 or 9-1 underdog) and if you win you will then have more chips to play the AK vs AQ hand or you can wait and take your chances with the AK vs AQ.

Lets play out the senarios saying that in the first instance that your AQ is up against a pair such as 88 and its is a 50-50 shot (for simplicity). If you decide to call the first all in then half the time you will lose and be out of the tournament and half the time you will win and have $28k to take to the second bet. Then taking the second bet you will lose your $28k one out of four times and the other three times you will turn your $28k into $56k.

So in this instance there is a 65% chance that you will no longer be in the tournament and a 35% chance that you will have improved your stack to $56k

So the EV for this call would = (56000*35/100) + (-14000*65/100) = +$10500

If you decide to pass with the AQ and save your money just for the second bet then there is a 25% chance that you would be out of the tournament and a 75% chance that you would have improved your stack to $28k

Then the EV for this call would = (28000*75/100) + (-14000*25/100) = +$17500

(even if you to take into consideration the fact that some chips had already been lost during the first hand then the calculation will look as follows - (22000*75/100) + (-14000*25/100) = +$13000)

So of the three EV calculations the worse one of the three to take would be the first one - yes you will make more chips but the chance of you being around to use them is greatly reduced.

Of course +/- EV calculations take into consideration that you are one of the better players in the tournament so that you can use your skill and ability to outplay your opponents rather than having to rely on luck - if however you are not one of the better players in the tournament then it may be to your advantage to take the risk to give yourself enough chips to get as far in the tournament as possible and +/-EV calculations are irrelavent.

It also takes into consideration that you know that you are going to get a better hand later in the tournament - obviously this may not happen straight away but if you are a good enough player then you should be able to find a good opportunity steal a few pots here and there to afford yourself some breathing space until the big hand comes along.

If you end up making the call in the first instance and your AQ was to walk into AK, KK or QQ then your EV calculation for the first scenario would be (56000*18.75/100) + (-14000*81.25/100) = -$875 - a -EV play. Given that usually a move like this represents a big hand then there are just as many times when this scenario will occur as the AQ vs 88 one.

Matt, you are playing heads up for $1000 winner takes all. Blinds 15K/30k you are on the button and raise to 90k with J9 suited. You both have 300k and the other guy goes all in. Do you call?

What if he flips his cards over and shows AK off and goes all in, Do you call?

My answer would be no in both instances.

If i was playing against Phil Ivey then most people would say my best chance of winning would be to get him to go all in on a coin flip or similar and take my chances therefore eliminating as much of his superior skill level as possible. This may be true (though i would like to think that i could give him a run for his money  :D) but on both occassions i would like to get my chips in with a hand better than J9 suited whether i knew my opponents cards or not.

If i was playing against a novice player then i would like to believe that my superior skill level meant that if i minimized luck as much as possible and outplayed him then in the long run i would again be better off passing and waiting for a better opportunity.

Not the best example really. This instance is a no brainer call imo.

How can you pass when the blinds are 30k a pop? How long are you going to wait?

Imagine next hand you are on the bb with 72 and he pops it up to 90k this time. You have no moves left as 120k more will be an automatic call with atc.

If blinds were 5k/10k its a pass.

I also didn't like your 3 flips = 10% analogy Matt (sorry).

Not that you are incorrect, but it is the reason that you are taking on the flips which becomes thye diciding factor and that is the point thta has been missed. To get to a 10% success 90% out, you are assuming equal stacks each time.

I don't mind taking on a race if i) I can get them in first by raising not calling and ii) by racing against stacks shorter than mine.

Flush

In another post you said you couldn’t begin to understand how someone could call your pre-flop all-in raise with AKs. Others agreed – one was even ‘staggered’ at this action.

I thought it was a reasonable call for a 99 on a 5 handed final table.

Next day you call an all-in raise with AQos on a full table mid tournament, which really is an easy fold.

Explain

OK good. I used to think the same. That hand was from last years Poker Million. The commentator Donnacha O'Dea said it was the easiest call in the world. I didn't understand why so I posted the hand on Blonde and 2+2 and everyone said to call. My friend prayingmantis explained it best in an email to me. I hope he won't mind if I copy it here.


Now with regards to the original hand, the hand in this thread has similarities. It is generally regarded even by sheets who I'm sure you agree plays good, that calling is correct.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=5810702&an=&page=&vc=1 (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=5810702&an=&page=&vc=1)

perhaps you can begin to see why I think any post that contains the words "I wouldn't put my tournament life on the line with..." should be deleted by the Mods.  :D

It was reading stuff like this that changed the way I played MTTs. I'm not saying you should, you are obv very successful. Good luck however you play.

Justin

that is why in my explanation i said...


If you are the one making the all in calls then you are just letting your tournament life be decided by lady luck. If you believe that you are one of the better players in the tournament then why take that chance? By using your skill and ability you should be minimizing the luck factor as much as possible

You say you dont mind taking on the race if you are the aggressor or you are up against a short stack - but in those instances you are trying to outplay your opponents by forcing them to pass without going all in which is the point i've being trying to make.........

You cant be the aggressor and try and outplay your opponents if you've been eliminated from the tournament!!

Yes, and thats the good thing about poker - who is to say which way is right and which way is wrong. Thats why we have public forums so we can debate these issues. I still believe that by passing the J9 i could still outplay my opponent even though he had a near 2-1 chip lead over me, i'd rather attempt to outplay someone in a winner takes all match than just lump it in and cross my fingers hoping for the best. (though to be honest being an MTT monkey i have no experience in playing winner takes all heads up matches - by the time i get heads up i will have already secured a decent payout compared with my initial buy in.)

Taking a heads up example at the end of a tournament is completely different though from talking about a hand from midway through a tournament which was the example from this thread.

Ok fair enough.

Singing from the same hymn sheet then, only with different words :)

sometimes the language barrier between us primates and you humans is a struggle - i try my best to put what i'm thinking into your lingo as best as possible but its difficult at times ;)

Notice though that in my analogy i never said that we were of equal skill level - in poker its very rare that you end up with a match that involves two people of exactly same skill levels...............

I was trying to show you why I think some of your posts are fundamentally flawed by stripping away all the fluff and getting down to basics.

The most overrated thing in poker is tournament survival.

The longer i survive in a tournament the more money i win

The key is accruing as many chips as possible with as little risk to allow this survival to take place.

That is a very classis, old school, approach to tournaments. I personally completely disagree with it but horses for courses and all that.

I double up on the very first hand of a tournament and become chip leader, i then stay as chip leader for the remainder of the tournament ending in my victory then i have managed to survive the entire tournament. If my victory was achieved by being chip leader then at no point during the tournament was my survival in any doubt.

How i survive a tournament though is a different question, i can survive by being very aggressive and bullying your way to victory or i can play a solid game by being patient and picking and choosing your spots.

Each player will have a different view on how to "survive" a tournament but if you want to be the victor then you have to "survive" longer than every single one of your opponents.

<post edit comments: when i use the term "survival" i always use it to mean that i outlast my opponents rather than playing passivly hoping that all my opponents knock each other out first>

I'm sure flushie has his own thoughts on this but here's my take.  All poker decisions are contextual. Calling allin with 72 at one time may be correct whilst even passing AA preflop can be correct in extreme circumstances.

The call with the 99 was a bit loose in my opinion. This is chip leader reraising 2nd chip leader allin for his chips and i would put flushie's range at TT+ AQs+ (I might however remove AA and KK from the equation as i would think they are played for more value). 99 simply doesn't perform too well against that range. If blinds were shallower, I would loosen Flushie's range considerably and find a call with 99 pretty easy with the overlay but they weren't, there's plenty of play left and I can find better, more profitable spots than running 99 against a strong range when I'm relatively deep. However there are extra chips in the pot and if the player felt he might be up against some better players in the final who would grind him down, then this may not be a bad spot for him to commit his chips.

The 2nd time with AQ, I saw this hand played out and immediately felt it was a call. 2 factors made this so for me. His play looked very much like a squeeze play. A few people didn't like Flushie's flat call. Nor did I to be honest. I think it's too much of his stack to coldcall out of position with a hand he needs to connect with.

Once he does however the initial limper sees a guy raising in late position and someone just flat calling the raise. There's lots in the pot vs 2 hands that may well not be massively strong. It's a good spot to move in with a pocket pair, to get it heads up with the overlay vs a likely 2 overcards. That was the read I had, that he had something like 55-TT.

Once the raiser folds and it's coming round to flushie , he's got a MP limper checkraising allin. This wasn't an UTG limper checkraising allin either which might be more suspicious. He's getting 2-1 on his call against a slightly suspect range. Even when the guy shows him Kings, which may occasionally happen here, the move is roughly neutral EV but I would definitely expect a coin flip against his range.

To me coin flips with big overlays are very easy calls in tournaments. So he decides to call and finds a 60-40. Wow nice one. Get in 60-40s with overlays in comps all the time, you'll be very successful.

So to me the context of the two hands creates very different results.

JungleCat has answered this very well.

The guy has limped in MP not UTG so i have removed AA-QQ, AK from his range, i just see a limp there in these tournaments so very rarely that its not a real possibility.

When the play has come back round to me i am getting 2-1 on what i believe is almost always a coin flip. If i fold i am left below 20 bb's and will find it hard to accumulate chips as we approach the bubble, if instead i call and win that ~50% of the time then i will have 30k+ and be able to run the table over on the bubble, that 30k would enable me to work up to 40-50k without having to show a hand. 27th gets 1% of the pool first gets 27%

Seamus, hello again.

I see the conditions very diffrent indeed, you seem to be blind to anything other than what hands people hold, with final tables there are massive diffrences between cash EV and chip EV, this however there is little diffrence, although the chips i hold are more important that the ones i win (tournament survival 101) i am getting 2-1 which negates the diffrence, especially when you consider that winning the pot allows me to open up my game reducing the diffrence in the chip ev as winning that 30k pot will actuall give me more than 30k.

wow


great thread

the only problem is when confronted with similar problems is i have max 20 seconds to think through all the scenarios and still not have a clue where i am


great thinking from great poker minds

 
Hi Flush and Cat

Fair answers.  Made me run through the options again……

I do generally take the view that in online tourneys hand strength takes priority. I support Matt’s reply about ‘survival’ at the mid point –  regardless of chip opportunities. If I am going to rely on an element of luck I will take my chance when it is forced upon me. (‘Fuzzy’ plays excepted )

In the 99 hand I think our difference is in what is read by your ‘protection’ all-in. IMO it does not automatically indicate a high pair - due to your BB position - but what it was; a hand vulnerable to a pocket pair.

Alternatively I suppose Mr 99 might have simply done a ‘Gerrard’ – blasting from 35 yards regardless. 

In another thread ‘Final table Moment’ I presented a hand situation in a live tourney –
Chip leader limps in to my BB, which I check. Flop shows a pair. I check and CL bets for most of my chips. I have an open ended straight draw. A long pause from me.     
The replies generally said ‘easy fold’ which it was.
I took my shot and hit. What was interesting was that the whole table (except the ex CL) was impressed by my ‘bold’ move, not my loose call. I think I won more than chips with that call. What’s the EV on that?