blonde poker forum

$0.50/$1 nl game.

i'm cutoff with Qh Th

It folds to me, I make it $3 to go.

Button calls, BB calls.

Flop comes

Qs Kh 4d

BB checks, i make a steal for $7.

both call.

$30 in the pot.

turn comes Jh, so the board reads:

Qs Kh 4d Jh

I've got an open ender, a pair and a flush draw.

BB checks.

I bet $19 (which is the size of the shorstack on the button)

Button folds.

BB min raises me. He has $6 back.

What do you do?

what do you think he's got?

Interesting point I find, is that when your opponent has very few chips behind. $6 in this case, you kinda neeed to factor that in, as you'll have to make a piece of mind call on the river when you miss.

If he was deeper, passing on the river is an option, and so you'd jsut use $19 to factor your oddies. Here, I suppose you'd have to use $25.

2.72 to 1 instead of 3.58 to 1.

So you need to be 26.9% at least to win the pot instead of 21.8%.

Against a made straight, with a heart in his hand you're 18% (20.5% without the heart)
Against 44 you're 31.8%, also the equity against K10 coincedentally.
Against KJ 38.6%   
KQ or QJ 34.1%
Other stuff like AK and Q4 are remote possiblities, against these, you'll be mid thirties% to win too.

..and of course against bushwacking crazy hands, including the nut flush draw, you'll be 50%+

So a quick glance would show that there's no need to weigh the possible likelyhoods of each one, the answer will be above 26.9%.

Call

I call, but since when is bettin 2nd pair 3 handed 'stealing'??

I also check the turn...

Thanks for the opinions guys, especially tank with all the in depth probabilities.

I put my chips in (there didn't seem to be any difference between putting the last $6 in on the turn or river) thinking i had odds to call. i's hoping he had 2 pair or trip 4's or something. It turned out he had Ah Ts ; not a hand i put him on as i didn't expect him to call the flop with just a gut shot. So it was worst case senario and i's on an %18 percent shot.

luckily the 4h fell on the river scooping me the pot.

Royal Flush is probably right about checking it on the turn, i's hoping for folds from from the other two but that was probably wishful thinking with both of the them paying for the turn.

you have an up and down srt8 flush draw a pair and and u want people OUT of the pot?

i think they have QJ 75% of the time here

Well yeah, i'm prob only about %33 to hit!