blonde poker forum

Do the math Josh.

Even though it made royal cry I'm sure he understands why you have to fold here.

You may feel that playing the KK here is just being fearless.
in fact if you run the numbers it is a losing play.

Noooo i think its a horrible pass! Your 83% against a random hand. Stick it in!

thats 3 pre flop passes of KK in just over a week by blondes...........has this place gone MAD!!!!!!!!

make that 4 jim, I folded KK to-day (mis-click)  :D madness

83% is enough for you?
Doing the math must include the payouts

This is stars so you have running ante's of i would imagine 100 on 1k-2k.

So you push with KK into the pot and the BB calls you....there is 900+1000+2000+1900 in the pot for your 3900 (of course he might fold, he may well have ticked check fold but lets ignore that)

83% of the time you will have 9700 after this hand!!

17% of the time you will be out getting 0.

With 9700 you now have folding equity and can increase your raising range of hands. With 3900 in every pot pre flop it will only take you 1 or 2 spots to get up to a decent sized stack that will enable you to double into contention! Given the first prize of this is i believe something around 150k+? Its mad to pass.

I also dont see the assured 600th place logic when you fold either. In a few hands time you will be posting 3k of your 3.9k, throw in 100 a hand on ante's and you only have 9 hands left till you are all in!

Push is fine with JJ, no way can you pass. Folding KK in that situation is ridiculous, shows your playing outwith your bankroll.

It is 1/50th of my bankroll.

folding does assure me of $400.
I have monied in this event many times so I know how quick they fall.
Getting to 9 or 10k does not in any way mean I am gonna get any more than the $400 I will get by folding, it will not put me in the top 525.
I wait 1 hand and then try to double and my odds may drop from 83% to even 60% but I do not risk losing $400.
It's not giving up a chance for the big prize it is simply doing it 1 hand later.

Now if I had say 9k already, pushing with KK is different for 2 reasons.....I actually have folding equity and if I'm called and double up it is worth a serious amount of chips.

however.... I certainly would not want you folding KK if you think it is right to play it, but it does mean bad beat stories one in 6 times :)
I'm just surprised that otherwise good players are making what I consider a bad call here.

To each their own I guess...

i would give up poker if i passed KK pre-flop with no action infront of me in that situation, i would be praying for any pair here i probably move with K-high or definately A-high. Nothing personal clayknight, but this is bad fold if u have any aspirations of getting to the higher payouts.  Don't players want to win a comp these days?

For the original post you have to ship it in with JJ in this spot everytime in my opinion with no exceptions

As for folding KK with a few to the money in stars sunday, i wouldnt do it for obvious reasons but if you are happy with just making the money and it makes a difference to you then go ahead and fold

I think you are outvoted here.....you played for the money. Everyone else would play for the win ( and you would still have made the money). If you want to achieve a major position in a high paying tourney then you have to play your hands. Its no good entering to get in the money,that is a sign of weakness and will be spotted...especially if you play live. You have to decide what you want out of your play. Grinding a few hundred dollars in tourneys will be a slow death.There is to much analyses sometimes over what should be instinct calls and your KK was an example of overthinking an obvious situation.

There is a pub poker league starting soon ...its in general discussions maybe you can practice there , its free to enter so you can be as bold as you like.  8) 8) 8) 8)

'Playing to win'    that old excuse!


"Yeah I went out just before the money but I was playing to win!"

What follows next is calling your opponent a fish or a donk, something 'cool' like that lol

This sheep like mentality is exactly why poker pooks sell.

There was a book written about einstein's theories called  '100 reasons'
It was 100 scientists of the day explaining why he was wrong.

His reply...........

"If I were wrong, it would only take one person to tell me"

Taking the majority means little when 95% of the players lose money over time.
So I'd expect 19 people to tell me i'm wrong :)

Regarding that tourney.......I have not cashed huge in it but I did pick up 13k for 8th.
If someone who has finished higher, in that exact event wants to tell me my fold was wrong I'm all ears.............

FIRST $500  Tournament of champions 2005  The Plaza Las Vegas

18th   $1000  NLH  WSOP circuit event Rio 2005


22nd $2000   NLH   WPT  Bellagio  2006
29th  $5000 NLH    WPT  Bellagio  2006

3   $10,000 WSOP SEATS ON POKERSTARS As well as winning a $15000 trip to the Caribbean finished out of the money in the main event but came 7th and 5th in the other events.

Only ever made 17th in the stars 215


Countless other wins, and yet I freely admit I am not a winner at poker and I am not that good. I wish I had more time and commitment to play, but I know one thing for sure....................YOU WHERE WRONG TO FOLD KK  !!!!!


Ok clay your turn ...but try not quoting scientists, how about Harrington,I think his opinion would count. :D :D :D :D

Your fold was wrong ;)

If it would have been a satellite where you are a few places off winning a seat then yes i would pass but for a tournament where i want to give myself the best chance of progressing as far as possible then i would be all in with KK there.

I could understand it if the $400 would mean a lot to your bankroll, however in your case it doesnt - and the $400 would only pay for 2 days tournaments max - whereas a double/triple up in that situation and who knows how far you could have gone......

obv you must have hit some cards to go from your position to 8th in the tourney if u play that KK you probably win the comp!!

This would be a good point if you were getting advised by a random sample of poker players, not winning players.

As you will win this hand OVER 83% of the time as occasionally players will fold despite the favourable pot odds, you've got to play it. Let's make some reasonable assumptions.

No 1 You push and 85% of the time you win.
No 2 You fold and 95% of the time you make the money.

So when you push and lose you sacrifice (15% * 400) - (5% * 400) or 40$.

If your bankroll was under 500$ then this might be too great a sacrifice to make, but then you probably shouldn't be in the comp.

Offset this 40$ against the gains you get from increased folding equity and greatly increased chance of being able to build a stack and get deep in the tournament and this is a very small amount of money to sacrifice.

There are other considerations to take into account too. For instance, doubling up immediately means you can now abuse the extra folding equity you have off players who will fold hands as strong as KK on the bubble!

Matt....

Imagine this...you fold the KK, then the next hand you move in with any two but you have locked up $400,  just as an example and the pot is as it was, you v 1 opponent, now let's assume you are 50/50 to win the hand, if you win you have the same chips as you would if you won with KK so your chance if winning big is the same, you just do it onw hand later.

So the stack when winning becomes irrelevant, you play KK you could lose $400 but are 83%,  you wait a hand and play the random 2 cards and you cannot lose $400 but you only have 50% chance of winning it.

Now just to clear things up............. if the payoouts went say $400 then $600 or $700 I'd play......but it wasn't it was $500 for the next level.
Also, if I had say 8k not 4k I'd play the KK...........so this is a very specific situation where the payout only increases by 25% and I have no folding equity and I am assured of $400 by folding and even if I played the KK and doubled I am still odds on to not make the next level of money.

Now regarding $400.
The feeling seems to be that this is nothing and I should be gambing for the 150k first prize!
It does not matter what your bankroll is, $400 is not nothing to me or to most of us.
How long does it take a 5/10 nl pro to win $400 ................. 20 hours at least!
Excluding Mr Rivercard :) ............. how long does it take most of you to earn $400?

I agree with Clay - why risk being out of the money when all you have to do is most likely wait one orbit?  The reality is that with his short stack it is unlikely he is going to win the tourney so banking some cash and sticking them in at a later time has to be the EV+ move?

junglecat, why do you assume these are winning players?  I'm not saying they are not but how do you know?

Your numbers are wrong because there is 100% chance of moneying if I fold.
Your numbers are also wrong because the extra folding equity against players who fold KK on the bubble is lost because there will be no more bubble after this and you can get the same stack same position 1 or 2 hands later with 2 random cars. with a 30% potential drop in chance of winning but not 30% drop in chance of winning another $100......  I'd say you are giving up maybe 15% so $15, but in return you re saving 15% of $400 which is $60.

Actuallly Marco the wait is even less than that.

2 hands previousl to this I used my 120 seconds time bank and the field dropped from 619 to 607.
then 4 went the next hand.
So I fold my KK with 603 left an the very next hand we are in the money :)

Experience told me it would only be a couple of hands and it was.

Maybe someone on another table pushed with KK and finished 601st lol.

I did know when I posted this that some would disagree and that is fine but I am happy that this is a profitable play and I am also happpy that most disagree.

risk/reward - i'll take my chances with KK every time.......

id have shipped it in with 67 suited about an hour ago, wouldnt be that low, lol

CLAY        

You never fold kk on the button with no one in but the blinds EVER EVER EVER   forget bankroll or any other mis guided  reasons.

But as I know you so well, I know you could ask the audience take 50/50 or phone a friend like Ivey,Brunson or Lederer and you would still say you were right.

 ;tk; ;tk; ;tk;

badpab is the only 'nay sayer' who has given a good alternative to my fold.

'Best block is no be there'

Yes but you werent asking opinions on what you should have done an hour ago - you were talking about that specific hand. Hence our answers on that specific hand.......

It is a profitable play.....for the BB,

Anyway gl, keep folding KK there, just let me know if we are on the same table.

is everone on this planet?  Forget %'s +ev -ev,  its just daft play!!   btw would you have passed AA?

I'd have passed 2 pair preflop.

would you have passed the same hand, same situation if the buy in was $10?

No

But it would be more profitable if I did.

I make many plays in a $10 multi that are not long term profitable because I'm looking to get rich or go home.
I bluff too much, I race too much and in situations like above I play KK :)

You see there are other factors to consider... if you earn say $30 an hour when you play, is it worthwhile playing a $10 multi for 3 hours and picking up $200?

The answer is no, it is not as simple as $200 divided by 3 hours because the wins have to pay for the times you don't money.
This is why I bluff too much and gamble too much and race too much in $10 multis because there is nothing worse than hitting the money but it still not being worthwhile.