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Title: Chasing nut flush draws - are they worth it? Post by: stallyon on July 21, 2006, 12:58:06 PM Lets say you hold Aspades Js and the board comes 8s 3d Qh. Someone bets out 4xBB (Blinds are at 30/60) - which is about 2/3rds of the pot. Do you call this? Or lay it down and wait for a better opportunity?
Title: Re: Chasing nut flush draws - are they worth it? Post by: Claw75 on July 21, 2006, 01:09:33 PM easy lay down for me. I'm no good when it comes to working out odds, but presuming you are rougly 4-1 to hit a spade on the turn, and the same on the river, does that not make hitting your runner runner flush a 16-1 shot?
Title: Re: Chasing nut flush draws - are they worth it? Post by: Lee on July 21, 2006, 01:11:57 PM Lets say you hold Aspades Js and the board comes 8s 3d Qh. Someone bets out 4xBB (Blinds are at 30/60) - which is about 2/3rds of the pot. Do you call this? Or lay it down and wait for a better opportunity? Drawing for a "runner, runner" nut flush can never be classed as good play IMO (unless you have a distinct and valid reason) as you will miss so many times. 2/3rd bet on a Q high flop, there are only two usual moves IMO, those being raise or fold. Raise if you think he has a weak holding or can fold to a re-raise, otherwise fold like a cheap pack of cards. If you think you can take the pot down on the turn by calling and then making a move, then this is also fine. Playing hands like AJ on this sort of flop is something i would expect to lose money on long term, so generally i disregard it. Title: Re: Chasing nut flush draws - are they worth it? Post by: Lee on July 21, 2006, 01:17:30 PM easy lay down for me. I'm no good when it comes to working out odds, but presuming you are rougly 4-1 to hit a spade on the turn, and the same on the river, does that not make hitting your runner runner flush a 16-1 shot? I think the maths on it would be: 10/47 x 9/46 = 90/2162 = 4.1% chance or 23.4/1 Title: Re: Chasing nut flush draws - are they worth it? Post by: Raindogs on July 21, 2006, 01:18:27 PM You have 1 overcard and a backdoor flush and straight draw. The flush draw is around a 23/1 shot to catch 2 running spades. If you allow 1.5 outs for your backdoor draws and 1.5 outs for your overcard (can't count it as 3 outs as your opponent may also have an ace) that's 3 outs for this hand. You would need the pot to be offering you around 15/1 to make this call (not including any implied odds)
Easy fold IMO. You could raise if you thought your opponent was bluffing or had a Q with a weak kicker and would lay down the hand to a decent raise, but you would need a good read on your opponent. Title: Re: Chasing nut flush draws - are they worth it? Post by: ACE2M on July 21, 2006, 04:38:36 PM in pure odds terms then it's an easy pass, but you can call to bluff or semi bluff the turn if you have position, which i'm happy to do against particular opponents.
Title: Re: Chasing nut flush draws - are they worth it? Post by: Jon MW on July 21, 2006, 04:40:16 PM You didn't say whether they bet before the pot?
Title: Re: Chasing nut flush draws - are they worth it? Post by: boldie on July 26, 2006, 11:43:14 AM backdoro flush draws are never worth chasing IMO.
If you think you can get someoen off a hand with a bluff it's nice to have a backup but you can't decide to stay in a pot because of a backdoor flush possibility. Title: Re: Chasing nut flush draws - are they worth it? Post by: turny on July 26, 2006, 12:34:00 PM and dont forget if you hit 4th spade on the turn your more than likely to have to call another bet on the turn for the chance to hit your flush.
easy fold chasing back door flush draws is a desperate play which occasionally may get lucky 4 u but in the long term will seriously harm your bankroll |