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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: Ironside on August 02, 2006, 01:03:08 AM



Title: all in or fold
Post by: Ironside on August 02, 2006, 01:03:08 AM
your in a omaha freezeout with a slow strucure and plenty of play left in it

average stack is 8k and you have 8400 at start of hand blinds are still only 50/100 and are raising very slowly

you have 89JQ and see a flop of 7T4 rainbow sb raises a full pot you reraise and the player on your left reraise stating 444


now your 60% to win this pot do you go all in or fold


Title: Re: all in or fold
Post by: Bongo on August 02, 2006, 01:12:35 AM
You're 60% to win and getting good odds on your money? Must be 2:1 or more if it's pot limit and you can get all in?

Call all day, every day and twice on sundays!


Title: Re: all in or fold
Post by: thetank on August 02, 2006, 01:18:36 AM
stating 444?

Did he actually type this in the chat box?


Title: Re: all in or fold
Post by: Ironside on August 02, 2006, 01:25:54 AM
he typed in set


Title: Re: all in or fold
Post by: JungleCat03 on August 02, 2006, 03:59:47 AM
It's a nice wrap draw, but you're actually a dog against a set 55% 45%( ish ) without another draw like a flush draw.

(http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=o&b=7c+Ts+4s&d=&h=8d+9d+Js+Qh%0D%0A%0D%0A2s+3h+4c+4d)

If you had a full wrap rather than a mini, something like 78 JQ on a 9T4 board then you'd be the favourite over a set by about the same margin.

Personally I like flat calling with a player behind here, to encourage them into the pot with a big draw. Plus you are pretty deep, and in deepstacked comps it's usually possible to find much bigger edges than virtual coin flips to get your money in with.

Third option ...you can reraise allin and type "unlucky TTT" and hope they are kind enough to believe you.


Title: Re: all in or fold
Post by: Ironside on August 02, 2006, 04:15:09 AM
i am 60.1 to win i ran the exact hand through twodimes


Title: Re: all in or fold
Post by: JungleCat03 on August 02, 2006, 05:58:42 AM
I can't find a mini wrap combination that makes you 60%. If you have a full wrap and flush draw which is as good as draws get

http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=o&b=9s+Ts+4d&d=&h=7s+8s+Jc+Qh%0D%0A%0D%0A2s+3h+4c+4h

then you are a 60% fave. I guess you had something like this then?



Title: Re: all in or fold
Post by: thetank on August 02, 2006, 06:09:09 AM
Do poker sites not say that communicating your holding with other players (especially in a tournament) is naughty?

Not really fair on those not involved in the hand tbh.


Title: Re: all in or fold
Post by: I, Zimbra on August 02, 2006, 06:57:18 PM
How much have you got back if you DO fold?


Title: Re: all in or fold
Post by: Ironside on August 02, 2006, 07:13:20 PM
over 6500 back if i fold


Title: Re: all in or fold
Post by: I, Zimbra on August 02, 2006, 07:17:46 PM
Sorry, I was just thinking of flat calling and seeing the turn (if the board pairs, it's adios amigos); but the bet is probably half your stack by now.

hmmmm....


Title: Re: all in or fold
Post by: Royal Flush on August 02, 2006, 07:29:55 PM
I still don't see how your mini-wrap is 60% against a set!!!

Is this Ironside rules poker where a str8 beats a house?


Title: Re: all in or fold
Post by: I, Zimbra on August 02, 2006, 07:31:16 PM
i am 60.1 to win i ran the exact hand through twodimes

Perhaps could you please cut'n'paste the 2dimes result on here for us?


Title: Re: all in or fold
Post by: Ironside on August 02, 2006, 07:36:02 PM
i have tried to find the hand history but cant i will look for it again


i ran the hand through 2 dimes after the comp at it was 60%


Title: Re: all in or fold
Post by: Royal Flush on August 02, 2006, 07:37:13 PM
i have tried to find the hand history but cant i will look for it again


i ran the hand through 2 dimes after the comp at it was 60%

Well you must have got something wrong.


Title: Re: all in or fold
Post by: Ironside on August 02, 2006, 07:42:43 PM
yep i was playing 3 comps at once but what ever the hand was i was drawing but 60% favourite but had enough to fold and still be healthy


Title: Re: all in or fold
Post by: JungleCat03 on August 02, 2006, 07:47:21 PM
With a draw as big as that, must've been full wrap + flush draw vs a set, you can flat call here.

The advantages of flat calling are that your equity doesn't change much on a blank turn (60% drops to 57%) so you can still happily call a pot size bet correctly.

Also if the turn isn't a blank, ie the board pairs, you can get away cheaply.

Additionally, by flat calling you encourage more chips to come into the pot behind you, which is what you want with a big draw.

A piece of 7 stud advice i once read which has kept with me and applies to many forms of poker is, play big pairs against a few and draws against an army.