blonde poker forum

I have nicked this from another "well known" forum but would like to see what other people think and to see if it is the same as my thoughts.

1) Call /fold
2) What hand do you put the other guy on and why

"This hand is from a while ago, but it still gives me nightmares. It's recalled from memory too, so forgive me if some figures are slightly out.

5/10nl (edited to add full-ring). Villain has just under $3k, and I cover. Main villain is an unknown who hasn't gotten out of line much during our session.

I'm dealt AA on the small blind. Middle position (villain) raises to $30. Three callers, and I raise it $150 more. Villain and button call.

Pot is around $600, and we see a rainbow flop of K-9-2.

I lead for $450.. villain calls, and button folds.

Turn is a brick. I check, and villain insta-pushes all-in to the $1.5k pot for around $2k.

Your move.. "

(Apologies if I have done something wrong in posting this)

i'd call and fingers crossed they've just got kq or kj and not a set

The pre-flop raise implies a fairly strong hand which makes 99 less likely and 22 unlikely.

The question then is how would they have played KK pre-flop. Stuck in a re-reraise, or called with position on you?

If they have flopped top set would they really stick it all in on the turn, with a slight overbet, rather than checking and giving you the chance of bluffing at the river?

Having thought about it, I think the percentages favour a call, with the hope(and a degree of expectation) you are up against AK, and a much smaller possibility he might have AA too!

Overall it seems like calling here is long term profitable, unless you have a totally solid read on the opponent that he has made a set.

yep that's how I read it...this is a call for me as I'm going to assume he's holding the old AK. If he had pocket 9's or twos his raise pre-flop would either have been bigger (incase of 9's I'm guessing 50 -60 as the BB is ten incase of KK around the same as he wants Ace rag out)) or smaller..(limp with the 2's)..the guy is holding AK most likely and therefore it's a call from boldie every time...(unless the guy is the rock of all rocks and he's only been playing Q's or higher)

I'm pushing it all in here as well.

I'd also agree his likely holding is AK, KJ, KQ, AQ. 

TY all

I thought AK as well and would call.

Even possibly have 10 10 J J and thinks that you are scared of the K as you bet the flop but checked the turn.

Personally I would of bet the turn enough to committ myself to the pot so that if he pushed, I wouldnt need to spare a thought about calling.

Like I siad, this was "someone" else's hand story.

Do we know what happened M?

I like the check on the turn here on a non-scary board (I'm not a cash game player though) as it lets him make that move with hands you are beating eg AK, KQ, QQ, JJ etc. I'd be insta calling his push.

Yes, the guy in question passed to the all in bet - never found out exactly what the other guy had

Wahey, I agree with Bazza. The main point of checking  here is probably to induce the bluff, though you  have to accept that every so often (maybe 1 in 5) you are beat to a set or a very unlikely 2-pair(but they were suited!).